Portland Trailblazers Woes

The NBA really should embrace gamblers. After all, basketball bettors make up some of the league’s most loyal fans.

Unlike fairweather hoops fans, bettors will follow terrible teams just as much as the top teams. In fact, the worse a team is the more likely bettors will be following it.

Why? Because really bad teams lose really well, and that means excellent wagering opportunities for bettors.

Case in point: The Portland Trail Blazers. Remember them?

The Blazers have the worst record in the Western Conference having won just 20 of their first 67 games. As of Tuesday, they had lost five in a row and were 1-9 straight up (SU) in their past 10 games.

All of that, of course, is good news for NBA bettors looking for a team to bet against (a.k.a. fade).

Overall, Portland has the second-worst betting record in the NBA at 30-36-1 against the spread (ATS). Even better, in their past 21 games, the Blazers are 5-16 ATS. That’s a losing rate of 76 percent, which makes Portland a strong fade play.

A big reason for the Blazers’ lack of success has been their inability to score – they are scoring the fewest points in the NBA at 88.5 ppg. This collection of multi-millionaire athletes has actually scored less than 70 points four times this season.

In a recent game in New Jersey, Portland could only muster five points in the fourth quarter of a 78-65 loss as a 12-point dog. It was the fewest points in a quarter in franchise history.

“This is embarrassing,” said PF Zach Randolph, who’s averaging a team-high 18.8 ppg.

Because they are the worst scoring team in the league, not surprisingly they have seen fewer games top the posted total this season – the Blazers are 30-36 on the OVER/UNDER.

One might expect that number to be even more dramatic, except that oddsmakers know that the Blazers can’t find the twine if their lives depend on it and have lowered their totals accordingly. In fact, they’ve lowered them so much that Portland has actually seen more games go OVER recently – they are 7-3 on the OVER/UNDER in their past 10.

On Thursday, the Blazers will visit the red-hot Phoenix Suns (9 p.m. ET, Fox Sports Arizona). The Suns currently lead the Pacific division and have the third-best record in the West (45-20 SU as of Tuesday).

Besides winning straight up, the Suns have been a solid team against the number. They are 36-29 ATS overall, fourth best in the league.

Despite playing without their top scorer from last year, Amare Stoudemire, the Suns are averaging the most points in the NBA (108.3 ppg). Much of the credit for Phoenix’s scoring prowess goes to reigning league MVP Steve Nash, who’s averaging a league-high 10.8 assists per game.

While the Suns can certainly score, their defense has been weak - they are allowing 101.6 ppg, sixth most in the league.

Although oddsmakers are fully aware of the Suns’ prolific offense and porous defense, Phoenix is still seeing more games top the total this year. The Suns are 36-27 on the OVER/UNDER overall, and they have seen 10 of their past 12 games top the total.

One of those 12 games was against the Blazers, who actually beat the Suns 111-101 as 8.5-point home dogs. It was only the second win in 17 games for Portland. The game topped the 211.5-point total.

This Thursday’s game will be the third meeting of the season between Phoenix and Portland. In the first game, the Suns slaughtered the Blazers 130-85 as 13.5-point home favorites.

That was the most points Portland has given up all year in a game that topped the 198-point total.

The Blazers have seen more low-scoring games on the road this season – they are 13-21-1 on the OVER/UNDER away from Portland.

However, playing against the Suns in Phoenix, Thursday’s game figures to be a high-scoring affair. Phoenix is 19-15-1 on the OVER/UNDER at home.

The spread will no doubt be high in this game but the hometown Suns should spank the Blazers, especially after they were humiliated by them in their last meeting.

Phoenix is 26-9 SU and 17-18 ATS at home; Portland is 6-29 SU and 14-21 ATS on the road.