Patriots vs. Vikings Preview and Pick

In what sizes up to be a very interesting inter-conference match-up, the New England Patriots visit the Twin Cities to take on the Minnesota Vikings on ESPN’s Monday Night Football tonight.

New England sits atop the AFC East, two games clear of the second-place New York Jets.

Minnesota occupies second place in the NFC North, 2 ½ games back of the division-leading Chicago Bears.

These two teams have played one common opponent so far this season. The Patriots beat the Buffalo Bills twice, 19-17 on opening weekend and 28-6 last week. But Buffalo beat the Vikings 17-12 three week ago. In that game, the Bills outrushed Minnesota 96-63. New England outrushed Buffalo in both their games this season, 183-99 in Week 1 and 94-75 last week. The Pats also held Bills RB Willis McGahee to just 59 yards on 20 carries a week ago.

The Vikings upset the Seahawks in Seattle last week 31-13 as 6 ½-point road dogs. But the Seahawks played the entire game without RB Shaun Alexander and the last three quarters without QB Matt Hasselbeck. Minnesota RB Chester Taylor scored on a 95-yard run, and the Vikings recovered a fumble in the end zone for the icing on the cake.

Taylor tallied 169 yards on 26 carries vs. Seattle, but take away that 95-yarder, and his yards-per-carry average drops below 3 (74 yards on 25 carries). Taylor has been an unexpectedly pleasant surprise, though, racking up 590 yards on the ground this season.

New England is 4-2 against the spread this season, and 3-0 ATS on the road. The Pats went 5-3 ATS away from home last season, 6-2 vs. the number on the road in 2004, and 5-2-1 ATS OTR in ’03. And the Patriots have won their last five games away from home outright.

Minnesota is 5-1 against the spread this season, and 3-0 ATS at home (although they got darn lucky to cover the spread vs. Detroit three weeks ago). Last season, the Vikes went 6-2 vs. the number at the Metrodome.

New England has outrushed five of its six opponents this season, and owns a 132-84 rushing-yards-per-game advantage. And despite a fairly unfamiliar receiving corps, QB Tom Brady is hitting 58% of his passes for an 11/3 TD/INT ratio and an 88.3 passing rating.

Minnesota is outrushing opponents by a 116-71 YPG margin, and QB Brad Johnson has been allright, hitting 65% of his passes for a 6/4 TD/INT ratio and an 86.3 passing rating. But through six games, the Vikings offense has scored a total of eight touchdowns. Fortunately for them (and their financial backers), the Minnesota defense has scored a league-high four TDs.

These two teams haven’t met since the Patriots beat the Vikings 24-17 in Foxboro four seasons ago.

Minnesota ranks 7th in the NFL with a 31:41 average time-of-possession advantage, while New England ranks 11th at 31:08.

The Patriots offense ranks 7th in 3rd-down conversions at 42%, while the Vikings rank 6th-worst at 32%. But the Minnesota defense ranks 3rd-best in opponents 3rd-down success at 31%, while the New England defense ranks 15th at 38%.

The Patriots, of course, are no longer in possession of the greatest clutch kicker in the history of the NFL, Adam Vinatieri, who worked a little more of his magic Sunday in Denver for the Colts. New New England kicker Stephen Gostkowski is just five-of-eight on his FG attempts this season.

The Vikings signed kicker Ryan Longwell away from Green Bay during the off-season, and so far it looks like a pretty good move. Longwell is 13-of-16 on his FG attempts so far this season, and two of his misses came from beyond 50 yards.

Patriots' DE Richard Seymour is listed as questionable for Monday night’s game with a bad elbow. But as for the rest of the injury report for this game, it looks like both coaches are messing around.

The O/U is 2-4 in Patriots’ games this season, 2-3-1 in Vikings games.

New England opened as three-point road favorites for this game, but early action has moved that number down to one.