San Francisco 49ers (5-8) +10, o/u 40 at Seattle Seahawks (8-5), 8 p.m. Eastern Thursday, NFL Network
by Ultimatecapper.com Staff
The Seattle Seahawks can clinch their third NFC Western Division title in a row if they can beat the San Francisco 49ers Thursday night at Seahawks Stadium in Seatown.
Seattle has had its ups and downs this season, mostly thanks to key injuries to QB Matt Hasselbeck, RB Shaun Alexander and others. Still, the Seahawks sit atop the NFC West Division, three games up on the Niners and the St. Louis Rams, and are tied with the Dallas Cowboys for the #3 seed in the NFC playoffs. Seattle could have clinched the division crown last week, but fell 27-21 in Arizona to the Cardinals as three-point road chalk.
A while back, San Francisco won three games in a row to reach the .500 mark at 5-5. But since then, the 49ers have lost three straight, including a 30-19 decision to the Green Bay Packers last week as four-point home favorites.
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The Seahawks had beaten San Fran six times in a row coming into this season. But the 49ers ended that streak with a 20-14 victory over the Seabirds three weeks ago. San Francisco jumped out to a 20-0 lead over a Hasselbeck-less Seattle team, and held on from there with the help of 262 rushing yards and a 36/24 time-of-possession advantage. The game stayed under its posted total of 43.
On the season, the Niners are 7-6 against the spread, 1-5 straight up and 3-3 ATS on the road.
The Seahawks have been overrated, at least by the oddsmakers, all season, and are only 4-8-1 vs. the number. Seattle is also 5-1 straight up and 3-2-1 ATS at home.
San Francisco hasn’t scored more than 20 points since putting up 34 in a Week 4 win over the Oakland Raiders. Since then, the Niners are averaging 15 points per game. Also, San Fran has allowed more points, 349, that any other team in the league.
Since getting both Hasselbeck and Alexander back in the starting lineup three games ago, the Seahawks have averaged 26 PPG. But on the season Seattle has been outscored 290-281.
49ers QB Alex Smith has hit on 58% of his passes this season and owns a 13/14 TD/INT ratio and a 74.0 passing rating.
Hasselbeck has also completed 58% of his passes this season and owns a 16/11 TD/INT ratio and an 81.6 passing rating.
San Francisco is outrushing opponents by a 132-124 yards-per-game average, while the Seahawks are outgrounding foes by a slim 119-117 YPG margin.
Seattle ranks 25th in the league with a 29:03 average time-of-possession, while the Niners rank 26th at 28:35.
These two teams have played eight common opponents this season. San Francisco beat Detroit 19-13, Minnesota 9-3 and Oakland 34-20, lost to Green Bay 30-19, Chicago 41-10, Kansas City 41-0 and Arizona 34-27, and split two games with St. Louis, winning 20-13 and losing 20-17. The Seahawks beat the Packers 34-24, the Lions 9-6 and the Raiders 16-0, lost to the Vikings 31-13 (without Hasselbeck and Alexander), the Bears 37-6 (without Alexander) and the Chiefs 35-28 (again, without their starting QB and MVP RB), swept two games from the Rams 30-28 and 24-22, and split two games with the Cardinals, winning 21-10 and losing, last week, 27-21.
Niners games are averaging 44 points this season, and the O/U is 7-6 in those games. Seattle games are also averaging 44 points, but the O/U is 9-4 in those games.
The Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings at USAToday.com rank the Seahawks 23rd at 15.5, San Fran dead last – 32nd – at 7.9.
Seattle will be without their leading WR, Darrell Jackson, Thursday night because of a toe injury.
The Seahawks opened up as nine-point favorites for Thursday night’s game, with a total of 45. Seattle has been bet up a bit, to right around 10, while the total has dropped considerably, thanks mainly to a weather forecast that calls for a very good chance of rain and high winds, with temps in the 40s.
The Ultimatecapper Pick: We like the niners at +10. | 
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