Weekend NFL Wrap Up
By Tony George www.sportsaudioshows.com
Time to look at the pointspread numbers in Round 1 of the Playoffs,as the Wild card games held true to form for the most part, withthe big surprise in my mind, the Redskins winning at Tampa Bay,proving their worth against a team I thought was better. It bringsinto play the BIGGEST item on anyone's agenda in the Playoffsand handicapping them, turnovers. You simply, at this level, cannotmake mistakes with special teams, and turnovers. One must alsoaccount now for defense and red zone offense efficiency.
The round 1 ATS numbers are interesting, as Ionce again look to a respected publication to quote you some interestingfacts and figures about this opening round on Saturday and Sunday.Home favorites versus the spread since 1976 are a solid 60-48-3ATS and home teams versus the spread are 64-49-3 overall. Hometeams do have an advantage this time of year, but favorites since1976 are also 84-31 straight up at home or on road, so it provesthe better teams are winning. When teams are favored by 3 pointsor less in this scenario since 1976, they are only 6-11-1 ATS.Many times in these type of low spread games the teams are evenlymatched and just a few big plays will determine the outcome ofthe entire game, versus the spread and straight up.
Remember when you look at these numbers datingback to 1976, that was also before the age of free agency, andthere is more parity in the NFL in these times. If you look athome teams since 1998, they are still a solid value in most cases,at 16-7-1 ATS. Round 1 home teams are Chicago, Seattle, Indy andDenver. I would make a guess that 2 to 3 will win straight up,and 2 or more will cover, however I will make you invest somemoney to get my plays to find out who! I can tell you it is again,a tale of two tales this Saturday and Sunday. The teams who playthe best defense, run the ball the best and turn it over the leastamount of times will win their games, bottom line. I also lookto the kicking game as a barometer to see, in a tight game whoI might place some emphasis one as well. Coaching goes somewhatoverlooked, but having a solid coach, with some post season experiencealso is a big plus, but remember as I eluded to last week, ANYONEplaying this weekend is a top shelf team with playmakers everywhereon both sides of the ball and any underdog can win it if giventhe ball enough times with special teams blunders and turnovers,because no one is here by accident.
We also saw last week that inexperience playeda part especially in the Giants and the Bucs games. Chris Simmsfor the Bucs simply gave it away in the first half, as well asrookie RB Williams who fumbled and it was returned for a TD. Inthe Giants case, Eli Manning followed in big brothers footstepsin the playoffs, tossing it up for grabs against a good secondary,which resulted in numerous Carolina points. All in all some verygood games with a few keys in each match-up, that at least onpaper provide opportunities against the line. Keep in mind itboils down to a finite number of items, and hopefully you foundsome of them here to key in on. |
