First let's take a look at preseason football betting then we'll move on to regular season strategy a bit further down the page.
First year coaches - Be sure to checkout first year coaches. They make take Preseason games more seriously as they're looking to come in and make a good impression on the team, the fans, and of course the media.
Coaches whose jobs are on the line - Check out coaches who may be motivated by the fact their coming off a crappy year and their jobs may be on the line. A coach on the hot seat will tend to be more motivated than a coach that knows they have job security.
Go against coaches who are comfy with their jobs - We all know the previous year's Super Bowl teams coaches jobs aren't in any jeorpardy. These teams are more than likely set and are just looking to see who their going to carry on the bench or to fill one or two departed spots. These teams will lack motivation and over the long term are likely a good 'go against' despite the team being talented.
Keep an eye our for 2 QB's battling for the starting job - Your assured that your going to get a top notch performance throughout the whole game! This angle provides tremendous value as neither want to foul up and risk losing the starting job!
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REGULAR SEASON FOOTBALL WAGERING ADVICE
Be leary of betting on -2.5, -6.5, or -9.5 - This is a hook to make the bettor think "oh, they only have to win by a fg, td, or fg and a td. Go the other way on lines like this and reap the benefits long term!
Things to make note of when capping Football Power Ratings and angles - These 2 forms of handicapping helpers should be used as supportive info to supplement your decision, not your principle reason for siding on a game.
Head to head history
Turnovers - teams that cough it up usually suck Against the Spread
Common Opponents - how did both teams play vs. the common opponent
Injuries - Make sure key players aren't out! The Center in football is VERY important due to timing issues!
Weather - Needless to say, inclement weather can affect the outcome of a ball game. Hint: Bad weather can lead to less scoring; Warm climate teams playing in freezing temperatures may not be used to the cold and it may negatively affect their play.
Line Movement - Don't base your play on it, but don't bet against it without knowing what is causing the odds to change.
Offensive stats vs. defensive - Make sure you know if the team your looking to bet on is 26th in rushing and is going up against the number one rated rushing defense!
Who sucks on the road and who plays well at home - This will be factored into the spread but it's surely worth knowing if a team doesn't score well on the road!
Kicking game - Make sure your backing a guy that isn't a shanker
Stupid over-penalized teams - Low IQ play and getting nailed with dumb penalties is for real and it can hurt you! Raiders anyone?
Preparation - If the team played on Monday night are they prepared to play on a short week? Most teams aren't!
Strength of schedule - Has the team got a bad record but played stellar teams with winning records to accrue that bad record?
Double digit underdogs are good stuff!- The higher the spread, the less likely the favorite will cover it. Teams play to be on the good side of zero, not to cover point spreads.
Beware of a team off a huge win - Especially if that win was an upset as they are likely to have a letdown! We can't explain this, but it's for real.
Play against high visibility public teams in disarray - Turmoil and trouble spells doom for point spreads.Great go againsts!
Home Dogs - NFL home dogs should always at least be considered. It's not always a winner but a good place to start sniffing for value. Teams like to protect their homefield and there's a bunch of other reasons as well.
Other tips - Often times the team with the better rusher wins the game. The same bodes for defense as well. Also, in the NFL , teams that win the game straight up usually cover! Weird stat but true.
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