NFL GAMBLING TIPS
by Kevin of Ultimatecapper.com
First let's take a look at preseason football betting then we'll
move on to regular season strategy a bit further down the page.
First year coaches - Be sure to check
out first year coaches. They make take Preseason games more seriously
as their looking to come in and make a good impression on the
team, the fans, and of course the media.
Coaches whose jobs are on the line - Check
out coaches who may be motivated by the fact their coming off
a crappy year and their jobs may be on the line. A coach on the
hot seat will tend to be more motivated than a coach that knows
they have job security.
Go against coaches who are comfy with their
jobs - We all know the previous year's superbowl teams coaches
jobs arent in any jeorpardy. These teams are more than likely
set and are just looking to see who their going to carry on the
bench or to fill one or two departed spots. These teams will lack
motivation and over the long term are likely a good "go against"
despite the team being talented.
Keep an eye our for 2 QB's battling for the
the starting job - Your assured that your going to get a top
notch performance throughout the whole game! This angle provides
tremendous value as neither want to foul up and risk losing the
starting job!
For more NFL handicapping helpers including
stats click here!
REGULAR SEASON FOOTBALL WAGERING ADVICE
Be leary of betting on -2.5, -6.5, or -9.5
- This is a hook to make the bettor think "oh, they only have
to win by a fg, td, or fg and a td. Go the other way on lines
like this and reap the benefits long term!
Things to make note of when capping Football
Power Ratings and angles - These 2 forms of handicapping
helpers should be used as supportive info to supplement your decision,
not your principle reason for siding on a game.
Head to head history
Turnovers - teams that cough
it up usually suck ats
Common Opponents - how did both teams
play vs. the common opponent
Injuries - Make sure key players aren't
out! The Center in football is VERY important due to timing issues!
Weather - Needless to say, inclement weather
can affect the outcome of a ballgame. Hint: Bad weather can lead
to less scoring; Warm climate teams playing in freezing temperatures
may not be used to the cold and it may negatively affect their
play.
Line Movement - Don't base your play on
it, but don't bet against it without knowing what is causing the
odds to change.
Offensive stats vs. defensive - Make sure
you know if the team your looking to bet on is 26th in rushing
and is going up against the number one rated rushing defense!
Who sucks on the road and who plays well at
home - This will be factored into the spread but it's surely
worth knowing if a team doesn't score well on the road!
Kicking game - Make sure your backing a
guy that isn't a shanker
Stupid over-penalized teams - Low IQ play
and getting nailed with dumb penalties is for real and it can
hurt you! Raiders anyone?
Preparation - If the team played on Monday
night are they prepared to play on a short week? Most teams aren't!
Strength of schedule - Has the team got
a bad record but played stellar teams with winning records to
accrue that bad record?
Double digit underdogs are good stuff!
- The higher the spread, the less likely the favorite will cover
it. Teams play to be on the good side of zero, not to cover point
spreads.
Beware of a team off a huge win - Especially
if that win was an upset as they are likely to have a letdown!
We can't explain this, but it's for real.
Play against high visibility public teams
in disarray - Turmoil and trouble spells doom for point spreads.
Great go againsts!
Home Dogs - NFL home dogs should always
at least be considered. It's not always a winner but a good place
to start sniffing for value. Teams like to protect their home
field and there's a bunch of other reasons as well.
Other tips - Often times the team with
the better rusher wins the game. The same bodes for defense as
well. Also, in the NFL, teams
that win the game straight up usually cover! Weird stat but true.
|
Forums
