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Favorites Having Their Way
by Gamebreaker of the
UltimatecapperForum
The favorites have had an amazing year and theyrefuse to let up.
2005 ATS and O/U numbers to date: SU:131-44-0 (74.9% @ 7.3 ppg)
ATS: 97-72-6 (57.4%) avg line -5.0
OU: 85-87-3 (49.4%) avg total 41.3
That's +17.8 unit blindly betting everfavorite on the board. Insane numbers especially when you considerthey are -169.9 units in the 8 years prior! (-21.2 avgper season).
Favorites in previous regular seasons:
2004: 117-125-7 (48.3%) -20.5 units
2003: 129-118-7 (52.2%) -0.8 units
2002: 108-137-4 (44.1%) -42.7 units
2001: 114-125-7 (47.7%) -23.5 units
2000: 114-125-3 (47.7%) -23.5 units
1999: 106-122-15 (46.5%) -28.2 units
1998: 119-106-13 (52.9%) +2.4 units
1997: 100-121-13 (45.2%) -33.1 units
I play about 80% dogs on side plays and sometotals. I feel pretty fortunate to have kept my head above waterthis season. I'd like to go back to 2002!
Just a side note for guys that use small offshorebooks. I'd consider getting the majority of my money out now andkeep smaller balances. Big books aren't a concern but the iffyones might be in trouble if this continues.
The strange thing is during the last month thefavorites tend to do better as the cream rises to the top in aplayoff push mode. November typically favors the dogs in a bigway but definitely not this year.
As a side note, away favorites are 29-20-2 this year. Pretty bizarre.
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