New Mexico State (15-13) vs. Hawaii (17-10), 11:20 p.m. Eastern
by Ultimatecapper.com Staff
Two teams with contrasting styles of play, the New Mexico State Aggies and Hawaii's Rainbow Warriors, tussle in the 4-5 game in the Western Athletic Conference tournament Thursday night at the Lawlor Center in Reno.
The teams tied for fourth place in the WAC at 10-6 this season. They also split two very different games. In January in La Cruces, the Aggies won a shootout, 87-84, in which both teams shot 50 percent from the floor. But NM State won the rebounding battle 34-26 and outshot Hawaii from the free-throw line 30-37 to 8-13.
In the second meeting a week ago in Hawaii, the Warriors prevailed 61-56 in a game in which neither team shot better than 43 percent from the floor. Hawaii won that rebounding battle 35-23.
That loss broke a six-game Aggie winning streak.
After beating NM State, Hawaii fell to Louisiana Tech Saturday 51-48 as four-point home favorites, breaking a four-game winning streak. But they did so without starting center Ahmet Gueye, who injured his knee in practice just prior to that game and is out for the season. Gueye had been averaging 12 points and eight rebounds per game, and led the WAC in blocked shots.
Senior 7-footer Chris Botez filled in for Gueye and contributed six points, six rebounds and four blocks vs. the Bulldogs.
New Mexico State has been good to its financial backers this season, going 16-8 against the spread overall, 11-4 ats in the WAC.
Hawaii, on the other hand, is 8-17 against the spread this season, 6-10 in WAC play.
On the season, New Mexico State shoots 71 percent from the line, Hawaii 64 percent. But the Warriors are limiting opponents to 41 percent shooting from the field, while Aggie opponents are shooting 46 percent from the floor.
In another injury notice, NM State starting guard Elijah Ingram (13 points, 3 rebounds, 3 assists per game), who missed the regular-season finale vs. Hawaii, is probable for tonight's game with a hamstring problem.
USA Today's Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings rank Hawaii #103 at 77.5, New Mexico State #129 at 75.6. And in the latest RPI at NCAAsports.com, the Warriors are ranked 88th, the Aggies 110th.
The under is a collective 31-19 in Hawaii and New Mexico Stategames this season.
OnlineSportsbooks
are surely aware of this and will be shading theline sucking the value out of the "under" play.The Ultimatecapper Pick: We like the over 131. With such a solid under record the line will surely be shaded. We also like tournament game endings to be stretched out with fouling leading to cheap free throws at the end of the game helping us reach our goal of the over here.
