New Jersey (+6 1/2, o/u 192) at Miami, 8 p.m. Eastern, TNT
by Ultimatecapper.com Staff
The Miami Heat, a questionable proposition to make the Eastern Conference finals about a week ago, now lurk just a win away from just that. Miami can attain that goal Tuesday night when they host the New Jersey Nets in Game 5 of their conference semi-final series.
After losing Game 1 of this series to the Nets in Miami, the Heat have won the last three, including the last two in New Jersey.
Miami also reached the conference finals last season, falling in seven games to the Detroit Pistons.
The Heat are 35-11 straight up at home this season, but just 18-26 vs. the number in home games, including 6-14-1 ats over their last 19 at home.
The Nets are 23-23 both straight up and against the spread on the road this season.
Over the last couple of seasons, the Heat had beaten New Jersey 10 games in a row. That included a four-game, first-round sweep in the playoffs last season. But the Nets won the last three games of the season series with the Heat this season, and went 4-0 ats vs. Miami. Also, the over/under went 4-0 in the four regular-season games between these two teams this season, and is 3-1 in this series.
The o/u is 25-21 in Heat home games this season, but 18-28 in Nets road games.
The Heat shot 48% from the floor during the regular season, 2nd-best in the league, but just 70% from the free-throw line, 2nd-worst in the league. At the other end, Miami outrebounded opponents by over 4 per game, which led the league.
As for those free throws, the Heat’s Shaquille O’Neal is 33-79 from the line this post-season.
New Jersey shot just 44% from the floor during the regular season, 4th-worst in the league, and 33% from 3-point range, 3rd-worst.
The Nets and the Heat ranked 7th and 8th, respectively, in field goal defense.
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The Ultimatecapper Pick: More of the same. The Heat stomp the Nets tonight.
