Nationals vs Mets Preview, Odds, Trends, & Free Pick – [6/18/17]

By
Jay Cooper
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Washington (42-26) at NY Mets (30-37)
When: Sunday, June 18th 2017
Where: Citi Field, New York, NY
Time: 1:10 ET | TV: MASN, WPIX
Opening Odds: New York -143/8.5

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The Washington Nationals look to complete a four-game sweep of the New York Mets and remain perfect at Citi Field this season when they take the field Sunday afternoon. The Nationals increased their NL East lead to 11 games with Saturday’s 7-4 victory over New York and have scored 22 runs in the first three games of this series to improve to 6-0 at Citi Field on the year. Bryce Harper brings a 10-game hitting streak into Sunday’s game and Anthony Rendon is 6-for-12 with five RBIs in the series for the Nationals, who are 42-24 against the Mets since the beginning of the 2014 season. Washington’s Daniel Murphy continues to torment his old team, reaching base in all 29 games against the Mets and will look to make it 30 against New York’s ace Jacob deGrom, who split a pair of matchups with the Nationals in April. Yoenis Cespedes had four hits including a home run on Saturday for the Mets and is 11-for-24 with six RBIs in eight games since coming off the disabled list. He’ll get his cracks at Washington right-hander Joe Ross on Sunday. New York has lost four of their last five overall and will embark on a ten-game road trip starting on Monday. They will also play 16 of their final 19 games leading up to the All-Star Break away from home. Jay Bruce is starting to heat up again for New York, going 8-for-16 during a four-game hitting streak and has six homers to go along with 12 RBIs in his last 13 games.

Pitchers: Nationals – Joe Ross (3-2, 6.39 ERA) | Mets – Jacob deGrom (5-3, 4.33)

Ross has been very inconsistent this season and brings a whopping 6.39 ERA into Sunday’s contest against New York. Ross was rocked by the Mets on April 30th, allowing seven hits and five runs in just four innings of work, but ended up getting a no-decision as the Nationals rolled 23-5. Ross struck out 12 and yielded one run over 7+ innings to beat Baltimore on June 8th, but allowed five in 5.2 innings five days later versus Atlanta. Lucas Duda is 2-for-4 with two homers versus Ross, who is 1-1 with a 5.16 ERA in four games against the Mets.

deGrom posted his eighth quality start in his last 13 outings last time out when he limited the Chicago Cubs to one run on five hits and four walks in a complete-game performance. deGrom has 100 strikeouts in 81 innings this season, but he has walked 10 in the last three starts and 34 overall. Harper (8-for-21, one homer) and Murphy (3-for-6) have hit deGrom, who is 3-3 with a 3.40 ERA in nine career outings versus the Nationals.

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The Mets have been pounding out homeruns recently and should be able to get to Ross once again. Washington is the second-best hitting team in all of baseball and don’t show signs of slowing down. Look for a lot of runs in the finale here.

Pick: Over 8.5 -120

W/L TRENDS

Washington
  • Nationals are 8-1 in their last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Nationals are 6-1 in their last 7 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Nationals are 10-2 in their last 12 road games.
  • Nationals are 6-2 in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
  • Nationals are 53-24 in their last 77 vs. National League East.
  • Nationals are 39-19 in their last 58 during game 4 of a series.
NY Mets
  • Mets are 3-7 in their last 10 home games.
  • Mets are 2-6 in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
  • Mets are 2-7 in their last 9 Sunday games.
  • Mets are 1-6 in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
  • Mets are 5-1 in deGrom’s last 6 starts during game 4 of a series.
  • Mets are 10-3 in deGrom’s last 13 Sunday starts.
  • Mets are 15-7 in deGrom’s last 22 starts with 5 days of rest.
  • Mets are 2-6 in deGrom’s last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

OU TRENDS

Washington
  • Over is 5-0 in Nationals last 5 overall.
  • Over is 5-0 in Nationals last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Over is 5-0 in Nationals last 5 on grass.
  • Over is 4-0 in Nationals last 4 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
  • Over is 5-0 in Nationals last 5 vs. National League East.
  • Over is 4-0 in Nationals last 4 games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Over is 5-0 in Nationals last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Over is 4-1 in Nationals last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.
  • Over is 24-11-2 in Nationals last 37 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
NY Mets
  • Over is 4-0-1 in Mets last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
  • Over is 3-1-1 in Mets last 5 Sunday games.
  • Over is 23-8-5 in Mets last 36 home games.
  • Over is 15-6-2 in Mets last 23 vs. National League East.
  • Under is 5-2 in Mets last 7 during game 4 of a series.
  • Over is 39-17-8 in Mets last 64 overall.
  • Over is 39-17-8 in Mets last 64 on grass.
  • Over is 4-0 in deGrom’s last 4 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance.
  • Under is 6-1 in deGrom’s last 7 Sunday starts.
  • Over is 4-1 in deGrom’s last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.
  • Under is 4-1-1 in deGrom’s last 6 home starts.
  • Over is 6-2-1 in deGrom’s last 9 starts on grass.
  • Over is 6-2-1 in deGrom’s last 9 starts overall.
  • Over is 6-2 in deGrom’s last 8 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

HEAD TO HEAD

  • Over is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings.
  • Mets are 5-1 in deGrom’s last 6 starts vs. Nationals.
  • Nationals are 7-2 in the last 9 meetings.
  • Nationals are 44-14 in the last 58 meetings in New York.
  • Over is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings in New York.

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