Michigan State (9-3) vs Washington State (9-3)
When: Thursday, December 28th 2017
Where: SDCCU Stadium, San Diego, CA
Time: 9:00 ET | TV: FOX Sports 1
Opening Odds: Washington State -4.5/44.5
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It will be offense versus defense in the 2017 edition of the San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl as the stingy Michigan State Spartans take on the high-flying Washington State Cougars on December 28th. The Spartans come into this contest ranked ninth in the country in total defense at 298.0 yards a game, including a fifth-best 101.3 on the ground. Meanwhile, the Cougs are second in the country in passing yards per game with 392.3 behind quarterback Luke Falk’s 3,593 yards and 30 touchdowns. Michigan State rebounded brilliantly from a 3-9 season and flipped their record around in 2017 and will be bowling for the 10th time in 11 seasons. Michigan State and coach Mark Dantonio still feel a bit slighted nationally after unranked Michigan – the school’s biggest rival which lost to the Spartans this year – was selected for a New Year’s Day bowl rather than MSU. Dantonio got into a bit of a Twitter war with Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh about the perceived snub, and many of the Michigan State players made their unhappiness known as well. The Spartans should come in pretty motivated. Washington State’s passing game has been terrific all season, but the team will be without two of its top three receivers after Tavares Martin Jr., who led Wazzu in catches, was dismissed from the team and Isaiah Johnson-Mack left the program. Martin had 70 receptions for 831 yards and nine touchdowns this season, while Johnson-Mack recorded 60 for 555 yards and five scores. Faulk will still have plenty of weapons at his disposal and one of them is sure to step up. Washington State has seven players remaining that have caught 24 or more passes this season – including running back Jamal Morrow (56 catches, 479 yards, five TDs) and wide receiver Kyle Sweet (50, 481, two).
Any team led by Mike Leach will have a pretty high-powered offense, but this year’s edition of the Cougars features a pretty solid defense as well. Washington State ranked second in the Pac-12 in total defense, allowing 313.6 yards per game. Junior defensive end Hercules Mata’afa has been named a consensus All-American after leading the conference in tackles for loss (21.5) and sacks (9.5) this season, but will have to sit out the first half due to a targeting suspension he received in the Apple Cup. The Cougars were No. 1 in the Pac-12 in pass defense, allowing an average of 167.4 yards and just eight scores this season. The Cougars also topped the conference in first downs allowed per game (15.7) and opponents’ third-down conversions (24.8%).
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The Spartans have been a little inconsistent on the offensive side of the ball this season in that they go from being a run-heavy squad to a pass-happy bunch and back again seemingly from game to game. Quarterback Brian Lewerke has recorded 2,580 passing yards and 17 touchdowns this season, though he had 845 of those yards and six of the scoring passes over a two-game span in the middle of the season. Leading rusher LJ Scott has a season total of 788 yards with six scores, but 341 and three were in two games, and the junior finished with fewer than 40 yards rushing in four games this season.
NCAA FOOTBALL ODDS – SCORES – PUBLIC PLAYS
It’s all about motivation in this one and the Spartans have it. Even the bettors think so, as the Cougars opened as 4.5-point favorites, but now the Spartans are favored by 1.5. Faulk will find life difficult without two of his top targets and the Michigan State defense will be all over him. I like Sparty in this contest.
Pick: Michigan State -1.5
TRENDS:
- Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Cougars are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.
- Cougars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up loss.
- Cougars are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Cougars are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Cougars are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Cougars are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
- Cougars are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
- Cougars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. Big Ten.
- Cougars are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games.
- Cougars are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
- Spartans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Bowl games.
- Spartans are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 neutral site games.
- Spartans are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win of more than 20 points.
- Spartans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games.
- Spartans are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games in December.
- Spartans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Spartans are 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Spartans are 34-16-2 ATS in their last 52 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Spartans are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 non-conference games.
- Spartans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
- Spartans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. Pac-12.
- Under is 7-0-1 in Cougars last 8 games following a straight up loss.
- Under is 4-0 in Cougars last 4 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Under is 6-1 in Cougars last 7 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
- Under is 5-1 in Cougars last 6 non-conference games.
- Under is 5-1-1 in Cougars last 7 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Cougars last 5 games on grass.
- Under is 6-2 in Cougars last 8 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
- Under is 5-2 in Cougars last 7 games after accumulating less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
- Over is 5-1 in Spartans last 6 Bowl games.
- Over is 4-1 in Spartans last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Spartans last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
- Over is 4-1 in Spartans last 5 vs. Pac-12.
- Under is 6-2 in Spartans last 8 non-conference games.
- Over is 14-5 in Spartans last 19 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
- Over is 5-2 in Spartans last 7 bowl games.
