by Ultimatecapper.com Staff
In a match-up more fitting the title game of the Big 10 Conference tournament, the Fightin' Illini of Illinois meet up with the Spartans of Michigan State in a quarterfinal Friday night in Indianapolis.
The Illini finished at 11-5 in the Big 10, tied for second place with Iowa. Michigan State stumbled its way to a 8-8 mark in the conference, tied with Michigan for sixth place.
Illinois has won the last five games in the series with Michigan State, sweeping the two meetings this season. Dee Brown was basically the difference in both games. In the Illini's 60-50 win in Champaign, Brown scored 34 points. In last week's 75-68 Illinois win in East Lansing, Brown sparked a second-half rally by hitting a pair of big three-pointers and finished with 20 points.
The Spartans are 3-5 in their last eight games. They beat Purdue Thursday in a conference tournament first-round match-up 70-58 as 12-point favorites.
Illinois has won five of its last six games, and is a profitable 16-10 against the spread this season, 13-8 ats as a favorite, 9-7 ats in the conference.
Michigan State is 12-16 against the spread on the season, 3-3 ats as an underdog, 7-10 ats vs. conference opponents.
The Illini shoot a respectable 46 percent from the floor and 36 percent from 3-point range, but just 64 percent from the free-throw line. They also led the conference in rebounding margin (+7) and points allowed (58 per game), and hold foes to 40 percent shooting from the field.
The Spartans are shooting 49 percent from the floor, 38 percent from long range and a very solid 78 percent from the line.
The word on Michigan State this season has been that they aren't as tough as other recent Spartan teams. But they do own a +5 rebounds per game margin.
Sagarin's PREDICTOR ratings at usatoday.com have Illinois ranked 10th at 88.9, Michigan State 42nd at 83.2. The latest RPI at NCAAsports.com has the Illini ranked #9, Michigan State #16.
The under is 14-11 in Illinois games this season, 14-14 in Michigan State games.
The Ultimatecapper Pick: We like Michigan State to win this game straight up. Grab those tasty 3.5 points and run!
