Michigan Wolverines (10-0) +7, O/U 41 at Ohio State Buckeyes (10-0), 3:30 p.m. Eastern Saturday, ABC
by Ultimatecapper.com Staff
Finally, the day has arrived. After a season’s worth of hype, not much else needs to be said. It’s Michigan and Ohio State, #1 vs. #2, for the Big 10 Conference title and a berth in college football’s national championship game, Saturday afternoon at The Big Horseshoe in Columbus. Let’s do this thing!
These two teams have rolled through their regular-season schedules, with the Wolverines winning games by an average score of 29-12 and the Buckeyes by a 36-8 margin. Michigan’s most impressive victories have come against Notre Dame and Wisconsin (who are a collective 19-2 this season), while Ohio State’s only test against a ranked team so far was their 24-7 win vs. Texas in Austin in Week 2.
Michigan is 6-4-1 against the spread this season, while Ohio State is a solid 9-2 vs. the numbers.
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The Buckeyes are 4-1 both straight up and against the spread vs. Michigan under head coach Jim Tressel, while the Wolverines are 6-5 SU and 5-6 ATS vs. Ohio State under head coach Lloyd Carr.
Last season, the Buckeyes scored two touchdowns in the last six minutes, the latter with 24 seconds left on the clock, to come from behind and beat Michigan 25-21 at The Big House as three-point road favorites. The underdog Wolverines led a hard-fought game 21-12 with eight minutes to go, but Smith engineered a memorable rally in another of the many great games in the history of this rivalry. Ohio State outrushed Michigan that day 118-32, but it must be pointed out that Wolverines RB Mike Hart played at considerably less than 100% health and mustered only 15 yards on nine carries.
This season, a healthy Hart has rushed for 1,373 yards, a 4.9 yards-per-carry average and 11 TDs.
Buckeyes QB Troy Smith has started 26 games in his career at Ohio State. The Buckeyes are 24-2 straight up in those games and 20-6 against the spread.
Maize & Blue QB Chad Henne has started 35 games in his career at Michigan. The Wolverines are 27-8 straight up in those games but just 16-17-2 vs. the spread.
This season, Henne has completed 62% of his passes and owns an 18/7 TD/INT ratio.
Counterpart Smith has hit on 66% of his throws and owns a 26/4 TD/INT ratio.
Michigan’s #1 ranked run defense has helped the Wolverines outrush opponents by a 195-30 (!) yards-per-game average.
Ohio State is outrushing foes by a 180-90 YPG margin.
These two teams have played six common opponents this season, obviously winning every game. And by looking at just the finals scores of those games, a factor that admittedly has limited value, the Buckeyes would seem to have a bit of an edge. Michigan beat Indiana 34-3, while Ohio State defeated the Hoosiers 44-3; the Wolverines out-mudded Northwestern 17-3, while the Buckeyes pounded the Wildcats 54-10; Michigan beat Iowa 20-6 in Ann Arbor, while OSU won 38-17 in Iowa City; the Wolverines defeated Penn State 17-10, while the Bucks beat the Lions 28-6 (although that game was much closer than the final score indicated); Michigan beat Michigan State 31-13, and Ohio State stuffed the Spartans 38-7; and while the Wolverines won at Minnesota 28-14, the Buckeyes grounded the Gophers 44-0 at the Big Horseshoe.
The Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings at USAToday.com rank the Buckeyes #1 at 98.3, Michigan #9 at 88.5.
Thanks to two very good defenses and dominant running games, the O/U is a collective 5-17 in Wolverines and OSU games this season.
The Ultimatecapper Pick: We've gone against the Buckeyes all too many times this year (against the spread) and we've eaten crow every time. The fact that Bo Schembechler died today may instill some emotion into this Wolverine team but we just don't see how they can overcome the Buckeyes at the Horseshoe. We're laying the 7 here. | 
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