Memphis (32-3)
-6, o/u 142
vs. Bradley (22-10), 7:25 p.m. Eastern, CBS
by Ultimatecapper.com Staff
The 13th seeded Bradley Braves wear Cinderella's sneakers as they head into their Sweet 16 showdown with top-seeded Memphis in the first of two NCAA Oakland regional semifinals Thursday night.
Memphis has won six games in a row, and 21 of its last 22. In their first-round bout with Oral Roberts, the Tigers easily covered 11 points in a 94-78 win. Memphis then fended off the upset bid of the trendy pick, Bucknell, 72-56, as eight-point chalk.
Bradley, the lowest-seeded team remaining in the NCAA tournament, has won nine of its last ten games, and covered eight of it last ten. The Braves upset Kansas 77-73 in their first-rounder last week, then knocked off Pittsburgh 72-66 in the second round to get here.
The Tigers are 16-15 against the spread this season, 14-15 ats as favorites, 13-13 ats when giving six or more points.
The Braves are a profitable 19-10 vs. the number this season, 6-3 ats as underdogs and 3-0 ats when getting six points or more.
Memphis missed the NCAA tournament last season, falling heartbreakingly in the Conference USA tournament title game. The Tigers last played in the Big Dance in 2004, losing in the second round.
This season Memphis won both the C-USA regular-season and tournament titles, going 16-1 in the process.
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Bradley went 11-7 in the Missouri Valley Conference this season, tying for fifth place with Northern Iowa. The Braves haven't played in the NCAA tournament since 1996.
Memphis hasn't gotten a lot of respect this season because of the conference they played in, but they played a brutal non-conference schedule. Outside of C-USA, the Tigers beat UCLA, Gonzaga, Tennessee, Alabama and UW-Milwaukee (by 27 points). Their three losses this season have been to Duke by 3 points, Texas by 11 and UAB by 6.
Bradley, on the other hand, didn't play much of a non-conference schedule. Their toughest non-con games included a win over Western Kentucky and a loss to Butler, both NIT participants.
Bradley also played one game vs. a C-USA team, beating Southern Miss 56-43 in January. Memphis beat their conference foes twice, by 17 and 39 points.
Memphis can do it on both ends of the court. The Tigers average 82 points per game, and hold opponents to just 38% shooting from the field. They also own a solid +7.6 rebounds per game margin.
Bradley holds foes to 40% shooting from the floor, and outrebounds opponents by 3.4 per game.
Memphis is also one of the youngest teams remaining in the tournament; they usually start a senior, two sophomores and two freshmen.
The Braves start two seniors, a junior and two sophs.
The Tigers are the only C-USA team remaining in the tournament. Bradley is one of two teams (along with Wichita State) from the MVC still breathing.
The RPI at NCAAsports.com rates Memphis 4th, Bradley 33rd. The Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings at usatoday.com ranks the Tigers #4 at 90.8, the Braves #16 at 86.9.
The Sagarin conference rankings rate the MVC as the 6th-toughest out of 31 Division 1 leagues, while C-USA comes in at #17, behind the likes of the Mountain West, the WAC, the Colonial, and the Big Sky.
The over is 18-12 in Bradley games this season, 15-17 in Memphis games.
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The Ultimatecapper Pick: Bradley is getting a little bit too much credit here. Look for Memphis to SQUASH them! | 
