Loyola-Marymount (12-17)
+12, o/u 150
vs. Gonzaga (26-3), 9 p.m. Eastern, ESPN
by Ultimatecapper.com Staff
A bevy of bubble teams across the country are Gonzaga fans tonight as the Bulldogs take on Loyola-Marymount in the West Coast Conference's tournament title game.
Gonzaga, of course, will be a high seed in the upcoming NCAA tournament, regardless of what happens to them tonight. But Loyola has just one chance to make it to the Big Dance: beat the Zags. If they do, they'll take a spot reserved for a bubble team somewhere.
Loyola had lost four games in a row before beating St. Mary's 66-63 as a four-point underdog Sunday. The Lions finished 8-6 in the West Coast Conference this season, tied with St. Mary's for second place, but got the higher seed in the conference tournament by winning the tie-breaker. So Loyola has only had to win one of its last five games to reach this conference tournament title game.
Top-seeded Gonzaga swept through the WCC regular season at 14-0, then held off a game San Diego squad 96-92 in OT Sunday as 13-point chalk to advance to this championship game.
The Zags have won six games in a row in the series with Loyola, including 79-70 and 92-80 victories this season. Also, in those six games, the average total points scored is 143, seven lower than tonight's posted total of 150. And only one of those six games has exceeded 150.
The Lions are 13-14 against the spread this season, but 10-5 ats vs. WCC opponents.
Despite its gaudy record, Gonzaga is just 12-17 against the spread this season. The Zags are also 15-0 straight up against WCC opponents, but only 7-8 ats in those games. And with tonight's game basically a homer for the Bulldogs, played in Spokane at the McCarthey Center, where Gonzaga is 16-0 straight up this season, they're a miserable 3-13 ats there this season.
The Bulldogs haven't lost a game this year; they've won 17 in a row, their last lost being an 83-72 decision at Memphis Dec. 27.
Loyola is shooting 42 percent from the field and just 33 percent from 3-point range this season, and allows opponents to shoot 45 percent from the floor.
Gonzaga, of course, has little problem throwing the ball in the hole. The Bulldogs are shooting 48 percent from the floor this season and 79 percent from the line. They also own a +3.5 rebounds per game margin.
Gonzaga is ranked #9 in the latest RPI at NCAAsports.com. The Zags' only losses this season have been on the road to Connecticut, Washington and Memphis.
Loyola is ranked 165th in that latest RPI.
Bulldogs center J.P. Batista (20 points, nine rebounds per game this season) is questionable for Monday's match-up with a knee injury.
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The Ultimatecapper Pick: Gonzaga hasn't been playing their best ball lately. If Bautista is out, they are vulnerable to losing this game straight up despite the spread being a fat +12 for Loyola. We'll take the dog here and feel real good about it!
