Louisville Cardinals (8-0) –6 ½, O/U 51 at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (8-0), 7:30 p.m. Eastern Thursday, ESPN
by Ultimatecapper.com Staff
Two of the last five undefeated teams in Division 1 college football hook up when the Louisville Cardinals visit the Rutgers Scarlet Knights Thursday night in New Jersey.
These two teams are tied for first place in the Big East Conference at 3-0. But while Louisville has bigger things on its mind than a conference title, Rutgers is playing for recognition and respect.
The Cardinals beat West Virginia last Thursday night 44-34 in the first Big East Game of the Year. Louisville led 16-14 at the half, and a fumble return for a score early in the third quarter began a second-half Cardinals surge that led to a 37-21 lead. The Mountaineers ran for 318 yards vs. the Louisville defense, but they’re liable to do that against anybody. And the Cardinals recovered three WV fumbles, so that evened things out a bit.
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In their most recent outing, the Knights beat Connecticut 24-13 as 20-point home chalk 11 days ago.
According to the Sagarin ratings at USAToday.com, Louisville has played the 42nd-toughest schedule in D-1, while Rutgers has played the 101st-toughest slate.
The Cardinals pounded the Scarlet Knights last season 56-5 as 23-point home favorites. The ‘Ville outgained Rutgers 500-187 and held the Knights to just 79 yards rushing. Louisville led 21-5 at the half, then scored four touchdowns in the third quarter to put the game away.
The Cardinals rank 2nd in D-1 by averaging 493 yards of total offense and are outrushing opponents by a 203-105 yards per game margin, even after losing great RB Michael Bush for the season back in Week 2 to a broken leg.
The Rutgers defense ranks 2nd in D-1 by allowing just 233 total yards per game. But the relatively light schedule the Knights have played must be taken into account when looking at those numbers.
Louisville QB Brian Brohm missed a couple of games earlier this season after dislocating his thumb on his throwing hand. But in his third game back last week vs. West Virginia, Brohm had probably his best game of this season, going 19-26/354. On the season, Brohm has completed 63% of his passes and owns a 5/3 TD/INT ratio.
Rutgers is outrushing opponents by a 193-92 YPG average this season.
Knights QB Mike Teel, who is 10-1 as a starter in his short career at Rutgers, isn’t asked to do a whole lot, and thus far has met expectations. Teel has completed 55% of his passes this season and owns a 6/8 TD/INT ratio.
Despite playing in the same conference, these two teams haven’t yet played a common opponent this season. Louisville can boast of beating the Miami Hurricanes 31-7 earlier this season, but that victory doesn’t look all that great now, considering the state that program is in.
Rutgers, as mentioned above, hasn’t played much of a schedule, but the Knights did pull off victories over Pittsburgh, Navy and South Florida earlier this season, all on the road.
Rutgers RB Ray Rice, who ranks third in D-1 in rushing with 1,203 yards and has scored 13 TDs this season, is listed as probable for Thursday night’s game after suffering an ankle injury vs. Connecticut.
The Cardinals are 5-3 against the spread this season, while Rutgers is 4-2-1 vs. the number.
The over/under is 4-4 in Louisville games this season, 1-6 in Knights games.
The Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings rank the Cardinals 4th at 92.4, Rutgers 22nd at 83.2.
Louisville opened up as five-point favorites for Thursday night’s game, with a total of 55. But the Cardinals have been bet up a bit, to 6 ½ at some
sportsbooks
around the Internet, while the total has been bet down as much as four points.
The Ultimatecapper Pick: We like Rutgers plus the points here. | 
