Kentucky Derby Handicapp;ing

By Ultimatecapper.com Horse Handicapper Kenneth Strong

The field for the 132nd running of the Kentucky Derby on Saturday, May 6, 2006, is one of the most competitive in years. Here is our analysis based on a fast track, in post position order. Lots of money to be made!

1. Jazil - This guy came flying late to pick up the pieces in a sloppy Wood Memorial and looked great doing it. Problem is he beat Keyed Entry, who has looked progressively worse the farther he's raced. In his favor is the fact that there should be a heated pace battle to set up his late run. He also appears to be improving. Has enough pedigree to get the distance and should be given extra consideration if the track is wet. Ralliers win the Derby most often and this guy is a rallier. Definitely has to be used in the Trifecta and Superfecta with some small tickets having him in the win spot.

2. Steppenwolfer - Has plodded home to beat tired horses while finishing behind fellow Derby entrant Lawyer Ron in his last three starts. Another whose style will be helped by a pace collapse. The race would have to fall apart completely for him to win, as his numbers simply are not good enough at this point. Another that has to be used in the Trifecta and Superfecta, but we won't be using him in the win spot. Also has a rookie trainer when it comes to the Derby.

3. Keyed Entry - Doesn't belong in the race. He's run down the stretch with his head up in the air in his last two starts and had no excuse in the Wood Memorial as the lone speed. Has run slower as the races have got longer and he will probably get cooked in a speed duel, if he even sees the lead. We wouldn't think that was even possible accept for the fact that he gets a rider switch from Prado to Valenzuela, whom we consider the best jockey on the planet. But even P. Val probably won't be enough to get him into the top four.

4. Sinister Minister - Looked incredible winning the Blue Grass by 12 ¾ lengths and will probably be overbet because of that. Has been having some minor foot problems since that race and the Derby is not the race you want to be going into with any sort of problems. Will likely try to steal the race but you have to think there are a few others in here who will make him pay early, including the very game Sharp Humor. Trainer has won the Derby on multiple occasions, but this guy would have to be 15-1 or better for us to even consider him. If all the other speed gets left in the gate, he could conceivably wire the field - otherwise forget it.

5. Point Determined - Definite contender and a must use in the Superfecta and Trifectas. His second place finish in the Santa Anita Derby wasn't as good as it looked, because A.P. Warrior actually took a run at Brother Derek before tiring in the stretch to give this guy the place. Still, he has the right running style and his trainer has won the Derby more than once. Jockey is hot right now and this guy would not need a complete collapse in order to win. Damsire Broad Brush should give him enough stamina to get the distance.

6. Showing Up - Is a perfect three-for-three lifetime but is moving way up in class for this and he simply doesn't appear to have the seasoning needed to win the Derby, which we consider at least 5-6 career races. Trainer is sharp and he wouldn't have this horse in the Derby if he didn't think he would run well. Should make a run when the pace collapses and we could see him finishing as high as third or fourth if too many horses move early into the pace battle on the turn. Of course, he might be one of the horses that gets in the pace battle on the turn. We'll use him in third or fourth spot on some small tickets.

7. Bob And John - A stalker-grinder who can pick up the pieces in the drive but who we can't see winning. Some called his win in the sloppy Wood Memorial "sharp", but we didn't see it that way. He wore down a tired horse who didn't want to run that far. Trainer has won the Derby on multiple occasions but this guy just doesn't look good enough to win. Worth using in the Superfecta for third and fourth. Can see him making a bid on the turn and maybe in early stretch before flattening out. Should have enough pedigree to get the distance. We'd like to see 25-1 or better on him.

8. Barbaro - Has been training like a bearcat at Churchill Downs, is a perfect 5-for-5 lifetime and wore down a very game Sharp Humor to win his last, the Florida Derby. Should have enough pedigree to get the distance but is bucking history coming into the Derby off a layoff longer than 28 days. Has a lot going for him and has to be used in the Trifecta and Superfecta. Could he win? Possibly. But he will be overbet in the Derby, and may go off at odds as low as 5-1. That just does not represent good enough value for us to bet him to win.

9. Sharp Humor - This poor guy is probably being thrown to the wolves in here. Too bad, because he's such a gutsy runner. He will be part of the pace scenario and he will make all the other speed pay at some point in the race, but that will compromise his own chances. If he does happen to shake loose early he could go a long way and conceivably finish in the top four. A good horse being asked to go too far in the wrong spot.

10. A.P. Warrior - One of our top two choices in the Derby. He should be excellent odds simply because he ran third in his last start, but many people just don't understand that when you have to make a run at a lone speed horse and you don't get by, you will tire in the stretch. This guy hasn't quite run fast enough to win this yet but he could do so on Derby day. Has enough stamina in his pedigree and the race should set up perfectly for him. His trainer won the Derby last year with a 50-1 shot. At 20-1, we love him in the win spot and he has to be used in all the exotics.

11. Sweetnorthernsaint - The second of our top two choices in the Derby based on pure value, although more and more people seem to be jumping on his bandwagon as the Derby approaches. Looked awesome winning the Illinois Derby over a weak field, but recorded an excellent Beyer Figure and has improved with every start. If we can get 8-1 or better on him we'll bet both him and A.P. Warrior to win. Jockey has also won the Derby twice before - nice bonus!

12. Private Vow - Looked great as a 2-year-old but has simply taken too long to get going at three. His second start off the layoff was decent, but he tired again and his numbers are low. He may still develop into a good horse, but would appear to need more seasoning. We can see him making a run at the leaders on the turn and maybe even a mild bid in early stretch before tiring. One thing to keep in mind however - he has won at Churchill in the past so he does like the track - and not all these horses will. For a minor share of the Superfecta maybe? Worth throwing in at 25-1 or better.

13. Bluegrass Cat - Followed up a dull hanging effort in the Tampa Bay Derby with an even worse performance in the Blue Grass. Appears to be going in the wrong direction and hasn't run fast enough to win this race. Another who will try to make his move into a pace battle on the turn for home, make a mild bid in early stretch and tire. Has been training well but just doesn't get us excited. Will use on some small Superfecta tickets.

14. Deputy Glitters - Not sure he belongs in this race either. Chased outside over a sloppy track in his last and faded badly. Was it the sloppy track or the horses? Regardless, he's not getting the lead in this race and he won't like the competition he's chasing up front either. This race simply seems to tough for him.

15. Seaside Retreat - Who? Gets beat 32 ½ lengths in the Blue Grass and decides to run in the Derby. Why? Ran a good second in the Lane's End over the polytrack at Turfway Park but other than that has never beaten anything. But you know what, he has to be used in the Superfecta because of his running style - that is if he gets a proper ride. He'll be a zillion to one and if he's patient enough he could rally into pace that is totally collapsing in mid stretch. Can he win? Can't see it, but he represents great value as a fourth place finisher in the Superfecta at 100-1.

16. Cause To Believe - Apparently hasn't been training that great at Churchill Downs and was slaughtered by Sweetnorthernsaint in the Illinois Derby. We thought he got a dumb ride too close to the pace in that race, but the pace was slow, so maybe it was okay. He can rally, but the fact that he hasn't been working well worries us. Still, because of his running style and the predicted hot pace, he has to be used in the fourth spot in the Superfecta at 50-1.

17. Lawyer Ron - Tough horses to gauge. Has won six in a row and every time the jockey has asked him for more in the stretch he has accelerated like a good horse - something few in this Derby field can do. But he hasn't run fast enough to win this race, YET, and he's been beating up on mediocre opposition. He could win, but his odds will be low, and there's not enough value to bet him to win. We also don't like the fact that his rider almost lost his last race on the first turn. If someone hadn't let him through on the inside he would have been checking like a madman. We will use him in some Superfecta boxes however, and he will be on all our tickets.

18. Brother Derek - A deserving favorite but beatable. He's drawn a poor wide post and will likely be wide early. He likes to run close to the lead and he will be moving into a hot pace. Should have the lead turning for home but can't see him running away from these. He has beaten decent competition in California in all his starts and he looked awesome in post parade before winning the Santa Anita Derby. Is fast enough and fit enough and has a solid rider - although Solis has not won this race in 13 tries. Hmmmm.. Will be low odds, poor value, and only two favorites have won the Derby in 20 years. Has to be used on every ticket but also worth betting against in the win spot simply because of the poor value.

19. Storm Treasure - We love this horse to get a piece of the Superfecta at odds of 50-1 or more. He was the only horse to make a move in the Blue Grass and he's also won at Churchill Downs in the past. Probably not good enough to win but he appears to be improving and this race will set up for him. Slowly rounding into form and should be ready for a peak effort in his fourth start off the layoff.

20. Flashy Bull - Doesn't belong in the Derby. Hasn't run since finishing seventh in the Florida Derby and likes to be near the lead, which he may not even get a sniff of with this bunch. Hasn't run fast enough either. If there is one reason to include him in the Superfecta, it's his jockey, who has won this race before. Okay, we'll put him in, but we'd like to see odds of 50-1 or more.

Whew! I'm out of breath. Now let's go get all the money! If you haven't checked out Bdg Racebook your missing out! Bet on not only odds to win but you can also wager on head to head matchups between horses!