Horse Betting Odds

Racetrackers – The Inside Money

Many bettors and racetrackers (those who work with the horses in the backstretch) mistakenly assume that a hot tip from someone who works in the backstretch is a good thing. On the backstretch a hot tip can spread like wild fire until it makes its way to the betting windows through both the racetrackers and the public, who invariably gets wind of the “good thing.” These hot tips can come from anyone including trainers, jockeys, exercise riders, owners, grooms, clockers, and hotwalkers. They are usually, but not always, a disaster. But why?

Mainly because the people who create the hot tips are concerned only with their own horse – without consideration for the other horses in race. And many of the tipsters are poor handicappers regardless. They may know their horse is feeling good, but they fail to take into account the competition in the race. And like any other facet of the working world, only the very best really know their stuff – and most of them aren’t telling. The backstretch, as a microcosm of society, is no exception. Many racetrackers think that because their exercise rider or jockey tells them that their horse worked exceptionally well, that the horse will win. They tell all their close friends, who in turn tell everyone else, until all the connected money shows up at the windows.

The worst touts are owners, who are biased in favor of their own horse to start with, followed by jockeys, trainers, jockey agents and exercise riders. Owners take advice from trainers, who in turn are influenced by jockeys and exercise riders. Owners are also influenced by trainers who are trying some new (or extra) medication or equipment on a horse – but you are better off looking at the program yourself for equipment changes. And medication is overrated. First or second time Lasix already has its proven percentages, but you have access to that information in the racing publications. Occasionally a horse who has received a cortisone shot(s) in an ankle, a knee, or more, will improve enough to win, but many times the horse is already in poor enough condition due to mismanagement, and the last resort medication comes too late.

You will occasionally see certain trainers who have operated at a 10 percent win clip for their entire careers, inexplicably start winning at an amazing 30-40 percent or higher win clip. If you think these proven losers have all of a sudden became master horsemen and exceptional horse trainers – you are mistaken. These trainers get hot for a few seasons and disappear into oblivion – but while they do have the hot veterinarian in their corner, you have to bet their horses. Their edge quickly becomes public knowledge however, and they fall outside the realm of hot tips.

The worst kind of inside tip you can get is on a first time starter who has been working well. Besides the fact that the tipsters (clockers, exercise riders, jockeys, trainers, grooms and owners) have generally not considered the other horses in the race, the trainer usually will not have the horse ready to go the distance in an actual race. Long gone are the days when a trainer would work a horse up to 10 times out of the gate and seven furlongs in company before staring in a six furlong race.

Numerous trainers nowadays will give their horses as few as three gate works before entering them in race, and you’ll rarely see a workout longer than six furlongs on a first-time starter. So even if the horse can run, it usually gags at the eighth pole with or without any serious race pressure. This happens almost everyday at every racetrack in North America. If you are going to bet a horse like this, MAKE SURE the trainer has a strong winning record with first-time starters.

The Big Late Money

Many bettors like to watch for big money bets that occasionally flow into the mutuel pools just before post time. These types of bets can make a horse a favorite on one switch of the tote board. Sometimes a horse will be 2-1 at post time only to show up at even money or less after the race has run, due to a big late bet at 10 seconds to post time – a bet which is calculated into the pools while the race is running and sometimes even after the race has run. Despite the fact that these big late bets are often based on superior insider information and/or information products the general public does not have access too, it has been statistically proven that they predict success at about the same rate as the public– and at a flat-bet loss.

In the cases where the big money flows in on a logical horse and makes the horse an underlay, you can simply skip the race (if you haven’t already bet). There are just too many variables in a horserace that are uncontrollable; making these underlay types even more unattractive.

Taking Advantage of Mistakes in the Betting Pools

With three different and often misinformed groups influencing the odds at various stages of the process leading up to post time, it pays to do your homework and wait for the odds to work in your favor.

As money from the different groups pours into the mutuel pools leading up to post time, you should try to avoid being influenced by movements in the odds that appear to indicate a hot horse – unless your own handicapping indicates that this horse should logically be taking money.

The most profitable approach is not only to become a proficient handicapper, but also to become adept at creating your own odds line. You will than be ready to pounce when the influencing groups above make mistakes that turn your top selections into juicy overlays.

Otherwise let someone else lose money – on someone else’s selections.