by Ultimatecapper.com Staff
One of the more interesting unknowns of the NCAA tournament will be revealed, at least in part, Thursday night when the Gonzaga Bulldogs take on the Xavier Musketeers in a first-round game in Salt Lake City.
So, just how good is third-seeded Gonzaga, winners of 18 in a row? The Bulldogs beat Michigan State in Hawaii, then lost by two points to Connecticut. Their other two losses are to Washington and Memphis. And after a couple of close calls in the West Coast Conference tournament, the Zags had completed an undefeated (16-0) run through the WCC.
Xavier, the 14 seed, has had its trials, but came up big at just the right time. Within 10 days in February, the Musketeers lost forward Brian Thornton (15 points, 7 rebounds per game) for the season to an ankle injury, and senior guard Dedrick Finn, who had started 53 consecutive games, got kicked off the team. Xavier proceeded to lose three of its last four regular-season games.
But the Musketeers ran off four straight wins in the A-10 tournament, including a come-from-behind, one-point win over St. Joseph’s in the title game, to earn an invitation to the Big Dance.
Gonzaga has been bad news to its financial backers this season, going 12-18 against the spread. And although the Zags are 25-0 straight up when favored, they’re just 8-17 ats when chalk.
Xavier is 14-14 against the number this season, 1-1 ats as an underdog.
Gonzaga shoots a solid 78% from the line, Xavier 73%. The Zags own a +3.5 rebounds per game margin, the Musketeers +2.2. But Xavier holds opponents to just 39% shooting from the floor, Gonzaga 43%.
Outside of the A-10, the Musketeers lost to Illinois by three points and to Creighton by two.The Bulldogs have a wonderful 1-2 combination in Morrison (28 points, six rebounds per game) and Batista (19-10). Gonzaga usually starts three juniors, a senior and a sophomore.Xavier starts two juniors, two sophs and a freshmen.
Gonzaga got knocked out of last season’s tournament by Texas Tech in the second round. The Musketeers last played in the NCAA in 2004.
In the latest Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings at usatoday.com, the Zags are 38th at 83.3, Xavier 46th at 83.0. In the latest RPI at NCAAsports.com, Gonzaga is #9, Xavier #80.
In Sagarin’s conference rankings, the Atlantic 10 is rated ninth out of 31 Division 1 leagues, the WCC 13th.
The under is 16-12 in Xavier games this season, 15-15 in Gonzaga games.
According to scoresandodds.com, the total on this game opened up at 140 1/2 but has been bet up to 143 1/2.
The Ultimatecapper Pick: This is not the same Gonzaga team of old. We like Xavier to cover here and possibly to win straight up!
