Fresno State Bulldogs (1-6, 1-2 in WAC) +24, O/U 58 at Boise State Broncos (8-0, 4-0), 8 p.m. Eastern Wednesday, ESPN 2
by Ultimatecapper.com Staff
In what should have been the WAC Game of the Year, the disappointing Fresno State Bulldogs head north to take on the Boise State Broncos Wednesday night on the ultra-violet turf at Bronco Stadium.
Instead, this is a match-up of the first-place team in the WAC vs. a team that’s lost six games in a row.
Fresno State began the season with a win over Nevada. But since then the Bulldogs, who were expected to compete for the WAC title, have lost every time out and are experiencing their worst season in 10 years under head coach Pat Hill.
In fact, since losing that exciting shootout at USC a year ago, Fresno State is 1-9 straight up and 0-9-1 against the spread.
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Both teams had last Saturday off. In their most recent outings, the Bulldogs lost 38-6 at LSU as 32-point road dogs 11 days ago, while Boise State beat Idaho 42-26 as 21-point road chalk that same day.
The Broncos love playing on that colorful turf in Boise. They’ve won 34 games in a row at Bronco Stadium and have scored 183 points in four home games this season.
Boise State is only 3-4 against the spread this season. But over the last three seasons, the Broncos are 7-3 ATS when favored by 20 points or more at home.
Fresno State beat Boise State 27-7 last season as nine-point home favorites, out-rushing the Broncos 206-104. The game also stayed well under the posted total of 61. It was the third straight game in this series that went under the total. But that game must seem like five seasons ago for the Bulldogs.
Boise State, in its first season under new head coach Chris Petersen after Dan Hawkins left to take over at Colorado, are one of the last six undefeated teams in Division 1 college football.
The Broncos probably need to move up a couple of spots in the polls to get a BCS bowl game berth. Which means Boise State could use a couple of convincing victories to help their cause.
These two teams have played one common opponent this season. The Broncos beat Hawaii 41-34 in Boise in Week 4, while the Rainbowarriors trounced FSU 68-37 at Homecoming in Fresno three weeks ago.
Boise State QB Jared Zabransky, with 33 career collegiate starts under his belt, has hit on 60% of his passes this season and owns a 13/4 TD/INT ratio.
And on the ground, the Broncos are outrushing their opponents this year by an impressive 226-77 yards-per-game average.
Before the season started, Fresno State had promise. The Bulldogs returned 15 starters from a team that went 8-5 overall, 6-2 in the WAC and lost to Tulsa in the Liberty Bowl.
Sophomore Tom Brandstater was expected to take over at QB for Fresno State for the effective Paul Pinegar this season. But Brandstater could only muster a 52% completion rate through the first five games of this season, with a 6/6 TD/INT ratio. So fellow soph Sean Norton, who made his first collegiate start two weeks ago vs. LSU, will make his second career start Wednesday night.
The Bulldogs are outrushing opponents by a 159-131 YPG average this season.
The Broncos returned nine starters to both sides of the ball from a team that went 9-4 overall and 7-1 in the WAC and lost to Boston College 27-21 in the MPC Computers Bowl last season.
The Sagarin PREDICTOR ratings at USAToday.com rank Boise State 19th at 84.0, Fresno State 88th at 65.9.
The Broncos opened up as favorites of 25 and more at some
sportsbooks
, with a total of 61. The line has dropped a bit, to right around 24, and the total has fallen to around 58½.
The Ultimatecapper Pick: We like Boise State to crush'em! | 
