Week 1: Oakland @ Pittsburgh (Sun 1:00 EST)

[Referee]

Please post your thoughts, views and other info here (no picks)

Pitt -3.5 o/u 37.5 (lines as of 8/14)
Pitt -3.5 o/u 38 (lines as of 8/29)
Pitt -3.5 o/u 41 (lines as of 9/4)
Pitt -4 o/u 41.5 (lines as of 9/11)

[Steel]

Oakland has a lot of weapons this year, no different then the last 3 years. They do not play well on the east coast and the Steelers do own them on their home turf. Looking for the Steelers to open things up a bit and the Raiders will more then likely do the same. The over/under may be the way to go as I see a lot of scoring in this one. The Steelers 1st defense squad does look good but don't be surprised to see both defenses score. The over is looking like the best bet for this one. Pittsburgn opened up against the Ravens last year and they hung 34 on the board. I can see this one getting into the 40 range somewhere. We will soon see. GL

i rarley except for mnf lay on our beloved steelers but the more and more i look at this game i smell a friggin blowout....no reason to believe we cant run and pass at will on this team...if our d secondary has any backbone at all it will be a friggin romp...the raiders certainly wont run the ball against us and i just dont see them passing well either....huge trip to come east to start off the season and i see oakland coming out sluggish and us jamming everything we do down there throats.....

[DWD14]

I am a fan of the raiders, dont ask why but i am. I just dont see them having a chance in this game. RB and QB are positions where i just dont know what to expect. Turner can turn them around but it wont be too soon. Their preseason games have looked ugly.
I hate to say it but the steelers run away with this game. Duce Staley will run all over the Raiders defense even with the new acquisitions. Raiders are just plain bad.

[Queen of Football]

I like Pittsburgh in this spot. I dont know if Im going to make it a play. My thoughts on the game are West Coast coming East on a 1:pm game dont cover. I find in Power Rankings and it's early they got Oakland rated right around same power. But my Power Ratings say Pitts by 3 and spread is 3.5 so I passed but really thing the WEST to EAST will prevail.

Queen

[Thor24]

See Pitt as a More Balanced Team this Yr..Can Run and Pass this YR...D.Staley will help Running game and Pitt already has a Great passing game with Great WRs..Oak is not as balanced at RB position but will be able to throw the Ball..There is a Question with Pitts DBs but everything else is Strong..It will take Turner some time but Oak will get better..But see Pitt in this one..Also as Queen said West coast to East coast will hurt Oak..like Pitt to get W by 7+..Good Luck to Everyone..

[STEELTOWN]

If the Raiders are smart, they'll duplicate the formations used when Chad Scott was in Never Never land and T.O. was wide open..... I would rather have a rookie in there screwing things up than this guy....

Besides that, the offense is looking strong and I don't see a problem for the cover....Which is the better bet IMO

we need to rid ourselves of scott and logan....put ike taylor in there and coclough....queen....last year toward the end of the year we had some great #'s regarding system plays of west coast teams coming east for 1:00 games and the numbers were staggering toward the east coast team covering....if anyone has that info it would help greatly....i hate being a homer but cant see letting this opportunity pass by w/out laying some dough on the men of steel....

[yomonte]

Queen, I guess we will all find out real quick if the west to east does anything. Sea was the worst on the W and E gig. Waiting on the line to make a move before I do anything on this. I tried to make a play but could'nt figure out how to buy points at Carib. I swear, I don't think you can buy points there. That will piss me the fk off. It also seemed last year that it was the 1:00 start and not necessarily east coast. GL tho

[DA Ladies Man]

I think im the only one who thinks the steelers will make a run....I see the groundgame being great...i see maddux havin a great seasona nd the defense doin enough for a 10-6 year....

best Wr core in football....and the rookie QB seems like he might be a great one

[Horfin]

Oakland at Pittsburgh

HEAD to HEAD:
’03 Pitts Won 27-7 (as –5.5 favorites) (at Pitts)
’02 Pitts Lost 17-30 (as –3.5 Favorites (at Pitts)
’00 Pitts Won 21-20 (as 3 point dogs) (at Pitts)

Last Year Records:
Pittsburg 6-10; 8-8 ATS; 4-4 as HF
Oakland 4-12; 3-12-1 ATS; 1-4 as RD

Week 1 Results:
Oakland Lost at Tenny 20-25 (as 3 point dogs)
Pittsburg Won vs. Baltimore 34-15 (as 5 point favorites)

Oaklands Offense vs. Pittsburg Defense

Oakland O-Line vs. Pitt D-Line

The Oakland O-Line is very impressive. They are large and for the most part experienced. The line has been reorganized and revamped. The raiders recognized the problems and obviously took care of them in the off-season. Its hard to compare stats due to the reorganization and the revamping of the line, but last year Oakland was 16th in rushing 27th in passing and 25th in overall yards. This all can’t be blamed on the O-Line, but it was part of the problem. With gaps filled, players moved back to the proper position the O-Line is not the weakest link anymore (although it will be weak until the team gels). Pittsburg has a base 3-4 and has great players and depth making this a no-worry position for the team. The players are smaller but faster than the Oakland O-Line Pitts Defense was 9th in Total yard, 11th in Passing yards allowed and 12 in rushing yards allowed. That is balance. And it all starts with the D-Line. Pitt only had 34 sacks last year and Oakland Allowed 43 Sacks last year. A slight advantage has to go to Pittsburg (probably more than slight)

Gannon (Collins) vs. Pittsburgh Defense

Gannon is the Starter but he is aging, how do you make him better? Competition and that is what Oakland did Bringning in Kerry Collins. I personally think it is a mistake for Oakland to stick with Gannon, he’s 38 off of shoulder surgery and had a 73 QB rating last year. Collins should be the starter and probably will by Week 3 or 4, Gannon make get pummeled against this Pitt defense and his O-Line that is now coming together. Either player can probably do better than Oakland did last year with their eyes shut (27th in passing . . .) Don’t look for the # of sacks to go down if Collins comes in because he may be younger but he is just as mobile. The DBs of Pittsburg is the weak link on Defense. Scott is now a Back up, I believe. Washington is gone.I Taylor is in his 2nd year, R. Colclogh is a Rookie, B. Alexander is gone and Polamalu is a 2nd year player. M. Logan and Townsend are experienced. The Raiders may have too many WR for the Steelers to match up with.

RB vs. Pittsburg Defense
Garner went to Tampa Bay. Oakland now has Wheatly, Fargas, and Troy Hambrick. This does not seem to be the type of RBs that a good team would have Wheatly is 32, Fargas is more or less inexperienced and is coming off a knee injury. Hambrick is the best bet but seems to be a Mini-Me version of Wheatley. Wasn’t Hambrick supposed to replace Emmitt Smith? We see how long that lasted. Oakland was horrible running last year and the Pitt Defense was great (at least good) at stopping it. I think the Oakland Boat is leaking at this position and the sharks are attacking. Don’t look for more than 50 yards rushing by Oakland in this game.

WR (Oak) vs. Pittsburg Defense
If any postion of Oakland is a strong point the WR has to be the strongest. Porter and Rice are a great One Two Punch (Porter will be a great star one day). The Tight ends play a part in this team and they both have good catching ability. Again this is where Oakland can get into this game and scare the Steelers. The DBs of Pitt probably won’t be able to stop Porter and Rice will get open, IF Gannon has time to throw. Roland Williams will be the Starting TE and he is a better receiver and a good blocker.

Special Teams:
Oakland is one of the best teams in ST all around, From Janikoski to PR to KR and Lechtler punting, Oakland has nothing to fix here.

Pittsburgh Offense vs. Oakland Defense

Pitts O-Line vs. Oakland D-Line
The left side of the line is in great position as the Steelers get LT Smith abck. The right side of the line is where sacks will come from. However, the line is back in order (when Smith went out last year, players were moved out of position) and the sack should go down and rushing stats could go even higher with Staley added to the mix. In the event of injuries the Steelers are better served this year with back-ups. The Steelers allowed 43 sacks last year due mostly to injuries and re-organization of the line. The Offense was 30th in Rushing and 13th in passing. Oaklands D-Line just plain sucked last year allowing almost 160 yards rushing per game. 3 starters are gone (Romanoski, Armonstrong and Barton). In are Sapp, Ted Washington. This should definitely boost the D-Line. Oakland also has a new coordinator and things should come together. I am not sure it will occur in week 1 though.

Pitts QB vs. Oakland Defense
Maddux is underated. I don’t care about his age or his stats last year (3,400 yards, 18 TDs and 17 Ints and 41 sacks), his O-Line and lack of a rushing game and the dumb idea of A. Zereoue can explain most of that away. Maddox is, will be and should be the starter. In the event that Cower makes a change he will find himself out of a job next year. If maddux has a running game (which he will) and the pass blocking improves by 50% (WHICH It will) then Pittsburgh may find themselves fighting with Cincinnati and Baltimore for the division. What’s almost as bad as the Oakland Run-Stop last year? The Oakland Pass Defense is the answer. Ranked 21st in the league. The Raiders are good on the corners with C. Woodson, P. Bughanon and R. Buchanon and you can’t forget about R. Woodson. The winner of this battle hinges on the talent of the WR of Pittsburgh.

RB vs. Defense:
Bettis? Staley? This is a hell of a combination. Staley was so underappreciated by the coaching/owners in Philly (Its obvious that the fans appreciated him). The replacement of Staley for Zereoue is an amazing increase in power and talent. Anything would be better than last years Amos-Experiment. The Oakland D is improved with the additions of Sapp and Ted Washington. I think overall this makes Oakland a better D, the question is when will the changes kick in? It is easier to change one RB and see a difference as opposed to the entire D-Line. Oakland SUCKED against the rush and Pitts should try to exploit this Defense.

WR vs. Defense
One thing about Pittsburgh is no matter what they generate star WRs, year after year. The problem is, when they leave Pittsburgh they disappear (See Yancey Thigpen). Buress is a Star. Burres can be excellent if Maddux has time to get him the ball. Hines Ward and Anwaan Randel El are possibly the best 2-3 WR combo in the NFL. I really like the WRs of Pitts and if Maddux can get some protection the Younger WRs of Pitt can take advantage of the older, slower defense of Oakland.

Tight Ends
Pittsburgh’s tight ends are unknown and untested. They should be little or no part of this offense other than blocking.

Special Teams:
Gardocki is a very very very good kicker. On KR and PR, if Pitt uses Randel El then they should reap some benefits.


IMPORTANT TRENDS TO CONSIDER:

******* West Coast Teams Traveling to the East Coast were 3-15-2 last year******

Trends Favoring Pittsburgh
Pitt is 4-1 ATS in the Last 5 against Oakland
Pitt is 10-2 when Favorites in a League Home Game
Pitt 4-1 ATS as Favs of 3 or more points vs. non-division opponent
Oakland is 1-10 ATS on the road vs. AFC North/Central Opponents
Oakland is 0-4 ATS in Last 4 in September
Oakland is 7-8-1 away in Home opener

Trends favoring Oakland
Pitt is 1-8-1 at home vs. non-Div opp at home
Cower is 3-10 ATS when the O/U is above 42 points
Pitt is 2-5 in last 7 in September
Pitt is 4-9-2 in home openers

Trends Favoring OVER
Over is 8-1 in League Home Games
Pitt was 6-2 Over Last Year at home

Trends Favoring UNDER
1-5 Under Last 6 between Pitt/Oak
Oakland was 2-6 UNDER on the road LY and 7-17 UNDER last 3 years on the road

[DA Ladies Man]

great write up horfin..only thing is Hambrick was traded to the cards.....so the running game will be terrible unless fargas can jus use his speed 2 run the rock

[Horfin]

Thanks for the update, its hard to keep up with everything. You are correct the RG will suck particularly against Pittsburg.


Horf!n

[Horatio]

Originally posted by Horfin
Oakland at Pittsburgh




IMPORTANT TRENDS TO CONSIDER:

******* West Coast Teams Traveling to the East Coast were 3-15-2 last year******

I recall this but not the details...is that SU or ATS??? Thanks...

[rjp]

Pittsburgh moving back to their ball-control, run-first offense.

[DA Ladies Man]

i think maddox will bounce back...as long as they ahve some type of running game....so i agree with your write up and i see that u r leaning towards pitt

[Horfin]

The 3-15-2 was ATS sorry.


Horf!n

[Pitt37]

Live in PGH and there is alot of buzz. The Steelers have to start off with a victory or will lose their fans. I also think the Steelers will suprise alot of people and Oakland is flat out weak.

watch out this line will go up IMO

no picks. thanx, yo. We do not want to take away from the picks section. GL tho bro

[The War Dogs]

Oakland is 5-18 ATS vs. teams now in the AFC North since 1992. Oakland was 1-7 ATS on THE ROAD LAST YEAR AND 3-10 ON GRASS ALONG WITH 3-12 OVERALL. Oakland coverted 27.5% of 3rd down conversions on the road last year and Pittsburgh converted 39.3% at home. On average, which is a weak number but worth looking at, Oakland last year lost road games by an average of 9 points (23.9-14.5). Pittsburgh averaged winning by just two points at home but, again, averages are just static numbers. Oakland, dead last against the run in 2003 and giving up about 24 per game, also allow themselves more time with the football which makes them appear even numbers but in fact that number is a function of a higher rate of possesion and time of possesion as much as it is a "power number." Pittsburgh weakness last year was early weakness, key injuries on the offensive line early in the season sent a 10-6 type team to a 8-8 record, unable to sustain a running game and thus a passing game as well. But they ended the year very strong, allowing only 14.3 ppg in their last three of the season and playing 5-3 ATS. Oakland was 1-4 ATS in their last 5 and lost 27-7 vs. Pittsburgh December 7, as 5.5 underdogs. The O/U in that game was 40.5.

Agree, if you like the game hit it now because it will be 5-6 by game time.

[uwstud]

i thought 5-6 was definately possible too. but as of a 90 mins prior to kickoff it went from -4 -110 to -4 -101 at pinnacle.....