John Deere Classic

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1.5pts):

Shigeki Maruyama to win 22/1 e.w. @ Stan James
This event moves back to a week adjacent to the British Open and a weak field is again the result. Vijay Singh is a notable exception, but Maruyama also looks a standout player in this field. He followed up his 4th place finish in the U.S. Open with an 11th place finish last week so his form is certainly good enough to win this week. He did miss the cut last year, but he was in poor form at the time, which is certainly not the case this time around. He should play well on this course where driving is considerably less important than the short game.

Jay Haas to win 33/1 e.w. @ BetInternet and Victor Chandler
Have no problems with the two remaining selections having no course form. This event has been held at the TPC at Deere Run for four years and in every year the winner has been making his debut on this course. This is a surprisingly large price for the only player, bar Vijay Singh, in this field to be ranked in the top-20 in the Official World Ranking. He ranks 5th in top-10 finishes and 8th in 'scoring average' on Tour, with again the only player to rank above him in this field being Vijay Singh. So warranting 2nd-favourite status on a course that suits his shorter game, these do look goods odds.

Geoff Ogilvy to win 50/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes
And the same here. Ogilvy is a player who puts good performances together. Three times last year he secured top-10 finishes having seemingly been in a slump and on each occasion, he followed it with a top-10 finish the following week. Earlier this season he had a string of top-20 finishes from February to May. So the omens for a good week this week are good after he finished 5th in last week's Western Open. But even as the 5th ranked player in the Tour 'All-Around Ranking' category - and the top-ranked player in this field in that important stat - he should be available at much lower odds.

[woodee12]

Maruyama is my pick also and looks like the best value here.

Don't bet too much golf but enjoy your posts and website.

JDC is 15 minutes from me and will probably head out on Sunday to watch the final round.

Good Luck. I will post any local info if I see anyhthing.

[Stanley]

Cheers woodee12

72-hole plays (1.5pts unless stated):

Jay Haas to beat Scott Hoch -118 @ Centrebet [3pts]
Neither player has played on this course, so with current form as the main indicator, Haas should be a stronger favourite. In six common events this year, he has finished behind Hoch only once. Another play on the outright selection.

Nick Price to beat Zach Johnson -111 @ SIA [3pts]
Johnson has played this course previously, but it is hardly an advantage as he has missed the cut by quite some distance on both occasions. With Price having finished ahead of Johnson is five out of their last six common events, he is another who should be a stronger favourite.

Geoff Ogilvy to beat Pat Perez -120 @ William Hill and Easybets
Perez does have a good history on this course, but as pointed out for the outright selections, it seems to matter little here. So with Ogilvy dominating this matchup - 15-5-0 h2h over the past twelve months - this looks a good reason to back another one of the outright selections in the matchups.

[Stanley]

Further 72-hole matchup plays (1.5pts):

Jay Haas to beat Zach Johnson -125 @ Five Dimes
Extension of the previous plays. Johnson has very poor course form and even in terms of his very successful 2004 season, he is not at the same level at Haas. Their 2004 h2h record stands at 8-2-0 in favour of the veteran.

Loren Roberts to beat Hank Kuehne -200 @ WSEX
Have had a spate of plays at my limit of -200 in the past few weeks. The value lies in the selection being expecting to win more than 2/3 of the matches between these two players. Roberts has finished ahead of Kuehne in five of their last six common events and has a worst finish of 22nd in his last five starts; Kuehne hasn't finished as high as 22nd since February (13 starts). Roberts really should win this match far more than two-thirds of the time.

[Stanley]

Outrights -

FINAL RESULT: 0-3; -4.50pts

Maruyama 27th
Haas 11th
Ogilvy mc

Was hopeful of a profitable return on the outrights with Haas in 3rd place with one round to play, but not to be once he had double-bogeyed the 9th hole.

Matchups -

FINAL RESULT: 1-3-1; -6.90pts

Haas/Hoch TIED (Dead heat)
Price/Johnson LOST by 5
Ogilvy/Perez LOST by 3
Haas/Johnson WON by 2
Roberts/Kuehne LOST by 6

Poor. Very poor.

PGA Tour ytd
Outrights: 13-68; +21.85pts
Matchups: 93-78; -3.18pts

All Tours ytd
Outrights: 54-218; +95.90pts
Matchups: 256-211; +7.14pts

[woodee12]

Lost my bets but was an exciting finish. Morgan added some excitement to the final few holes.

Thanks for your insight and can't wait to see you British open plays!