NBA Monday - Start The Week With A BANG!!

[TopNotchPlays]

Last week is behind me and so is my payment to the Man. Time to look ahead to this week's PAYDAY!!

Game #1:
MIAMI +4 over Indiana (5 Dimes)

This should prove to be a much better game for Miami now that they are back Home where they are 33-12 SU and 29-16 ATS. However, can't take anything away from Indiana when they hit the Road as they've been awesome themselves, going 29-14 SU and 28-15 ATS. It's no big secret that Miami has trouble when playing Indiana. In fact, in their last 10 meetings, the Pacers are a perfect 10-0 SU vs the Heat. Hell, the closest Miami was able to come to a win was a 4pt loss, at Miami. The other 9 games were blowouts by the Pacers. So what the hell am I doing laying this kinda Green on the Heat for?? It has nothing to do with the fact they are in a "must win" situation. I Capped the game as I normally would and then did something a bit different. I looked at every Road Game Indiana played this year (including Playoff games) and every Home Game Miami played (including Playoff games). I made Indiana a 4pt Fav in each of their Road Games, while making Miami a 4pt Dog in each of their Home games. That scenario produced these "Numbers":

Indiana Played 47 Road Games (@ -4 under my scenario)
22-23-2 ATS as a 4pt Road Favorite

Miami Played 49 Home Games (@ +4 under my scenario)
40-9-0 ATS as a 4pt Home Dog

Putting all my information together made Miami the play for me tonight. Will be back with Game #2 when I've completed my analysis.

[TopNotchPlays]

Game #2

SACRAMENTO -5 over Minnesota (5 Dimes)

Sacramento returns Home tonight where they are a terrific 37-7 SU, but just 22-22 ATS. Even though they've won 8 of their last 9 Playoff Games on the Home Hardwood, they've crushed their backers by going just 2-6-1 ATS. Minnesota travels to California with a Road record of 28-15 SU and 26-17 ATS. In fact, the T'Wolves are the best Road team in the NBA right now. When we look at the "scenario" I used in Game #1, we see these "Numbers":

Minnesota has played 47 Road Games (@ +5)
31-15-1 ATS as a 5pt Road Dog

Sacramento has played 48 Home Games (@-5)
31-15-2 ATS as a 5pt Home Fav

Being that the ROAD team has Covered the Spread in 6 of the last 7 meetings between the two, I find it hard to believe that Minny is even getting 5 points tonight. In Capping this game, I came up with a 6pt Sacramento Win...add to that the fact that Minny looks TOO GOOD getting the 5pts, the Kings become my play tonight.

Best of Luck to everyone tonight...no matter who you play!!!

[darian]

GL with your picks tonight!

[dave needs a winner?]

One dog will win tonight. I think that dog is Miami. Also like them straight up!!!


It's like this, Miami has to save face and win at least 1 game. I think that game will be tonight!!!



Love Sacratamato also!!!


Good-Luck and let's nail it!!!

[Domer]

Top, I agree after looking at all the numbers. Everybody in on Indy because they were so dominate at home. Hell they were 11 pt favorites and now they are a mere 4. As per my total post Miami goes from 86.8 pts on the road to 92.5 pts at home. Their defense NUTS up too where they gave up 91.2 pts on the road to 86.5 at home. Not to mention that Indy's O doesn't benefit that much at home. Only their D SACKS up at home...But we are in Florida tonight, not Iniana. Plus as dominate as the Pacers have been don't you think the number is a little LOW[b] It looks too easy for the Pacers, thus I like the Heat.

Minny played well their last game with Sac...But that was at home, they are suppose to win. Now the Kings are at home vs one of the best road teams. If Minny heats up and wins one it will be game 4 not Sac's first home game. I truly don't expect a lot of D from either team tonight although many see it going under. IMO if it is a loose playing defensive game the King's will be all over it!

[Domer]

By the way, Good Luck Top & DNW.

[Domer]

Nice win tonight now we need to finish with Sac. I also had the over in game 1, which by the way I had Capped at 180. Should I install myself on my "Tail Me To Win" pedistal. just Kidding. Congrats boyz!

[TopNotchPlays]

I really should have left the Sac game alone....oh well.

1-1 WTD
-500

Congrats to all that had M & M...lol