Program explanation....

[Katidy]

Just in case anybody is interested in the inner working of my program here's a thumbnail sketch ....

I wrote this using Visual Basic 6, a little outdated but works for me...

Data is taken from USATODAY matchups.

I use overall games played, innings pitched, ERA, average for & against. Also use Last 3 ERA, AF, AA.

Next is overall Bullpen ERA & Last 3 ERA...

The program averages the I.P. per game to detemine B.P. involvement. So Starter & B.P. value is determined for the game.

All these quantities are combined & averaged.

Extra weighting is added or subtracted foer Last 3 data. A value is then determined for each team.

This could be assumed as actual runs, but because of weighting factors think of it more as relevant strength..

The STARS value (max. 5) is determined by comparing the teams primary data, they have to be better by at least 1 in each catergory to get a Star value....

The POINTS value (max. 10) uses the same comparison with emphasis on Last 3 dat....

I threw this in because some games had values very close, but the marginal better team or lesser team was winning easily...Tha STARS & POINTS value helps to pick out these ...

The # in brackets after the team name is the # of games that pitcher has played in. Ideally at least 6 to have a Last 3 comparison..

Later in the season data becomes saturated & Last 3 comparison comes into play more. Hence the weighting factor...

The "BEST BET" scenario would be a VALUE of 2+, STARS 5, POINTS 10...

Also in this thread I'm going to post my record for all games listed, games wagered, & units +/-...

Hope this has some value & can add some extra info for your betting determinations....

If you need anymore info let me know....

Lets kick ass....:fire: :fire: :fire:

:yeah:

[rjp]

I would suggest you use median values for the number of innings you expect the pitcher to pitch! You want to get a rough idea, not an average idea... lets say the pitcher has a horrible outing, doesn't even go an inning... does this mean he's more likely to go say 4 innings instead of 6?? Nope!! Medians.

:bbang:

[Katidy]

OK ...

How to determine medians ?????

Best guess would be 6 innings ???

[beermantm]

I would suggest you use median values for the number of innings you expect the pitcher to pitch! You want to get a rough idea, not an average idea... lets say the pitcher has a horrible outing, doesn't even go an inning... does this mean he's more likely to go say 4 innings instead of 6?? Nope!! Medians.

You read my mind!!! Exactly what I was thinking. Averaging will give you the right answer about half the time and medians will do a better overall job for an expectation.

[beermantm]

OK ...

How to determine medians ?????


Same as averaging really but you throw out all numbers that are low or high compared to what would be considered a normal performance. Something like this.......

45 54 65 28 97 51 49 86 24

You would throw out 24 28 86 97

you'r left with 45 49 51 54 65 A more accurate reflection of what to expect instead of the higher numbers or lower numbers pulling your average up and down like a yo yo.

It's kind of like making sure a standard deviation stays standard.

:gulp:

[rjp]

Well lets say you use the last 6 games. Ordered from lowest to highest, you get:

2 3 6 6 7 8

Median of an even number of values is the average of the middle values, in this case 6 and 6. In this case you reach the number 6, as 6+6/2 = 6. If you instead average you get 5 and 1/3 instead of 6! Not really a good reflection.

:thumbs:

[Katidy]

OK got ya....

However I'd have to know how many innings were pitched in each of that starters game....

That is not available where I'm getting my data, only games & innings pitched....

Like I told rjp previously my old lady says I spend too much time with you guys anyways....LOL....

In Fri. oakland/NYY game Zito pitched 6 games, 37 innings, so 6.16 innings average....

Pavano 6 games, 34 innings, so 5.66 innings average...

That doesn't seem to be too bad a quantity to work with...

Granted they may have pitched a 1 inning game & an 8 inning game, but the norm would probably be 6 innings??????

Last night Wasn't so good for games listed, maybe I'll look into someplace to get more data....

Friday's stuff...

Total on games listed....30-18 (6-6 Fri.)

Total on games wagered....14-4 (3-1 Fri.)

Total units +6.84 (+2 Fri.)



:cheers:

[Katidy]

Updating record...

Games 35-21 (5-5 Sat.)

Bet 15-5 (1-1 Sat.)

Units +6.34 (-.5 Sat.)


Back in a minute with Sun.....

[puppet1111]

you mean there is a science to all this madness no wonder i am doing so bad


ytd 5-9

[Katidy]

Nah, there's no science.....

I'm just too stupid to do my own thinking or picking teams, so this way I can blame the program & kick the computer...

:toss:

LOL..

[Katidy]

Updating record....

Total games 40-30...(5-7 Sun.)

Games bet 18-7...(3-2 Sun.)

Units +6.74...(+.4 Sun.)

Posting in a sec....


Tuesday update for Monday's record.....

Total games 46-38....(6-8 Mon.)

Games wagered 20-9....(2-2 Mon. bets not posted)

Units +5.5.2....(-.82 Mon.Bets not posted)

[Katidy]

Thought I could re-post this by editing....

Didn't work so have to post a reply to get it front & centre....

Record updated above....

[Katidy]

Hey skank.....

Here's the explanation.

Get back to me with any suggestions....:thumbs:

I'm open to anything that will help...:yeah:

[Katidy]

Gad...

I moved this to the top so you could be sure to catch it before it left this page....

I've left out the # in parentheses to show games played because every team has pretty well gone beyond at least 3 games by that pitcher....

A typical line is....Bal. 5.1 Value....(1) (stars)....(1) (points)
Bos. 5.2 Value....(0)...............(0)

Hope this is what you wanted....

:thumbs:

[gadfly36]

thank you very much, have to print this out and read it. looks like its helping you.

[puppet1111]

katidy,
I think your program is an assest to ultimatecapper.
keep up the good work.

[Katidy]

Thanks all for the kind words....

Just trying to help....

I know I've got a lot of help from this forum...

:yeah: