C'mon Cappers

[mikey710]

Does anybody see anything strange with the Spurs line?

I am tempted to pound Den only because this seems way to easy.

In game 1, the Spurs had arguably the worst game in recent history. Not a single FG in 10+minutes. Then in game 2, they absolutely destroyed Den. They totally shut them down and ran away from early in the 1st quarter.

Match-up suggest Spurs cover by 10. If Parker can continue his play from game 2, and Duncan plays at least at 80% this should be another blow out.

What am I missing? By the way, The Spurs aren't exactly a weak road team.

[rjp]

What are you talking about?

Matchup suggests Denver blows SA out of the water!! Why do you think it's tough to get an ML for Denver??

[Horatio]

of Nuggets under Karl is very, very good. And in fact, this game is a must win not so much for the Spurs, as for the Nuggets, and of course Karl knows that. I think the Spus will get one and recapture home court advantage, but whether that happens tonight is another question. Just my opinion on the line set is it is...:gulp: The Spurs are always underestimated and usually that is a very nice advantage to have, but I am certain George Karl and Doug Moe know exactly how great a team the Spurs are and have been...

[mikey710]

RJP,

This is why I come here---to learn.

Will you be so kind as to point out how the match-up favors Denver?

[rjp]

Game: San Antonio@Denver
Prediction: Denver -17, total: 217
Denver SU Probability: 89.82% (-882)
San Antonio SU Probability: 8.56% (1068)
Line: Denver 1.5 (-107); San Antonio -1.5 (-103)
Denver Probability: 92.70% (ROI: 78.70%)
San Antonio Probability: 7.30% (ROI: -85.62%)

:gulp:

[Stifler's Mom]

The key to the game is the Denver fast break. Denver is a team that relies heavily on easy fast break points. They cannot beat the Spurs in a half court game unless the Spurs play like TOTAL shit. If the Spurs are able to stop the Denver break, they most likely win, and in convincing fashion. If not, Denver probably gets some momentum going and gets a win.

With that being said, I wouldn't touch this game at the given line, unless the public numbers favored Denver heavily....in which case I would take the Spurs.

They do not however, as the public is heavily on the Spurs.

I think the best thing to do is sit this one out and play the loser of tonight's contest in a must win game 4, but that's just my humble opinion. I am almost strictly a situational bettor in hoops, as you can probably tell from those comments.

BTW rjp, I never understand that stuff you put up with probabilities and stuff, or how you come up with those numbers, lol :thumbs:

Denver has a decent shot to win this game, but Denver by 17 however? Unlikely, LOL....but that's why they play the games :bbang:

[rjp]

LOL, Stif, let me help:

Game: San Antonio@Denver

Home team@Away team

Prediction: Denver -17, total: 217

Predicted win margin and point total.

Denver SU Probability: 89.82% (-882)
San Antonio SU Probability: 8.56% (1068)

Probability that the specified team will win outright based on the predicted margin of victory and deviation from the prediction (deviation based on this season's prediction versus actual result). In parenthesis is what the ML line should be based on the expected PCT of victory.

Line: Denver 1.5 (-107); San Antonio -1.5 (-103)

Posted line at Pinnacle

Denver Probability: 92.70% (ROI: 78.70%)
San Antonio Probability: 7.30% (ROI: -85.62%)

The probability the specified team covers ATS. The ROI is what is the return is expected to be based on what you SHOULD have to lay compared against what you DO have to lay.

:bbang:

[mikey710]

RJP,

Thanks for the reply. I am still a bit confused.

I have looked at this game very closely---and no offense, but Denver doesn't really seem like a major contender. I know they have been really hot as of late, but the Spurs IMO are the best team in the league by far.

I don't see how they are going to stop Duncan, Parker, or Ginobli--and at the same time I don't see how they are going to pick apart Spurs D.

I think I'm following Stiff on this game and not playing it.

I can't see any rational way an expected total of 217 is possible. I read in another thread that you see it in the 220 range.

Excluding overtime, how will Denver put that many points up against the Best D?

Either way, since I am not playing it, best of luck to y'all guys.

[rjp]

I'm wrong again. :gulp:

[Horatio]

that San Antonio has Tim Duncan,Ginobli and Parker. Now three guys of that quality with talent, AND work ethic, coached by a serious man like Popovich, and throughout the season, ranked well ahead of the opponent, SHOULD win. It takes three superior pros in each position to win championships in most years. Two, only if you have absolute Hall of Famers in the center and point guard positon.
We should discount the hype. We should recall the constant underestimation of a truly talented, polished player like Duncan, who is also abetted by serious intelligence, which is worth at least 5 points against the mental midgets he competes against each game.
Parker and Ginobli are also smart and gifted. For us to buy into the hype of Karl is surely excusable, but in no way rational. Why? Because the NBA and the broadcasters love a good story, and dull superiority is discounted.
Ask Pete Sampras(of the tennis world) if that is not the case.
I had a decent bet on em as I have bet Duncan since he was at Wake Forest, and he has been a consistent winner for me.
Let the TV people talk, but recall that talent and brains are rare and as unbeatable as you can get in this world. San Antonio is blessed with both in terms of players and coaches. :yeah: Bet against em at your own risk.:prtytme:


PS I Do listen to Barkley and Kenny Smith. They are still connected players, who have actually watched more games than I have. Barkley in particular is often discounted as a clown, but he can predict most games down to a few points.

[MounT J]

outstanding post Horatio!

[mikey710]

RJP,

I am relatively new to this site. I rarely ever post, but I have gambled big for years. Gambling, IMO, is very cyclical.

For every game you lose today, you will win that many tomorrow. I think the hardest thing to do is to know what days to play.

I'll be tailing you tomorrow.

[Kevin]

If I was around and capped that game Id have been on Denver HUGE tonight. Tricky line that would have had the opposite result sixty percent of the time or better if played 100 times.

Real surprised s.a. covered that.

[Horatio]

With all respect...NO. Do you see a league MVP on Denver? I don't... I see Duncan, without question the second best center in the league, arguably the best center, and a former league MVP, on SA. I dont bet against him or Shaq.

Anyway...the best team, and the best coach, won. And they will win this series. The only question is in how many games.:gulp:

[bookiekilla]

I was all day yesterday, or I would've chimed in on this...I did post my play on Denver and was pretty damn confident on that play. It lost, and like Kevin was pretty suprised the spurs covers....but this isn't anything new in handicapping.....you win some you lose some...as long as at the end you've won more than you've lost....just thought i'd throw my 2 cents in there that I felt that Denver was a very strong play last night.....and yup...i lost