Online poker...this aint good.......

[beermantm]

I caught this on a poker site out there and it has been going arround the net a bit more lately. Any thaughts on this????



Ok, time for some real math.

The KK v AA post read originally:

As I posted the other night...in one day I had pocket KK 4 times in 218 hands. Pretty unusual ...but all 4 times I lost to pocket AA. If the analysis is accurate this should only happen once every 78 times I have pocket KK. So, the odds of this occuring 4 consecutive times is the hundreds of millions.

Step one:

If you are dealt KK, what are the odds that someone at the table will have AA (assume 10 handed table and a standard 52 card deck ).

Pick an opponent. The odds that he/she/it has AA is the odds that his first card is an Ace ( 4 aces in the remaining 50 cards, remember you have KK) TIMES the odds that his second card is an Ace ( 3 cards in the remainding 49 ).
So (4/50)(3/49) = 12/2450 .

Now the odds that he/she/it does not have AA is 1 minus the odds that he does, or
1 - 12/2450 = 2438/2450.

What are the odds that none of your 9 opponenets has AA? You multiply the odds by itself 9 times.

( 2438/2450 )^ 9

So the odds that at least one opponent has AA (there could be 2), is one minus the odds noone has AA or:
1 - ( 2438/2450 )^ 9 =
0.0432277905147285 or roughly 1 in 23.1 times.

Not extremely rare.

Now what are the odds that, starting right now, the next 4 times you pick up KK (no matter how many hands it takes to get KK four times), someone will be dealt AA?

Answer: The odds of it happening each individual time, multiplied together 4 times or

(0.0432277905147285)^4 =
.00000349182244872636 or
1 in 286383

Ballpark, a quarter-million to one.

Like flipping a coin 18 times anc coming up tails every time.

If you want to add in loosing, KK looses to AA a whopping 82% of the time. So in four consecutive confrontations, it should loose all four

.82 ^ 4 =

0.45212176 or 45.2% of the time.

So this would boost the odds of each of your next four KK meeting and loosing to AA up to roughly

1 in 600,000.

[airborneheel]

sounds shady. sorry to hear about that bullshit

[Kevin]

Please email me at ultimatecapper@hotmail.com and lemme know what poker room this happened at. Thanks

Kevin

[beermantm]

These are my very own poker stats.................


hand_rank_desc total_hands co_pct_tot_hands
High Card........664.......... 27.9815
One Pair.........1079......... 45.4699
Two Pair........376........... 15.8449
Three Of A Kind...83.......... 3.4977
Straight........75............ 3.1606
Flush.......... 53............ 2.2335
Full House......40............ 1.6856
Four of a Kind....3........... .13

here are the hands I been dealt in order from the most to the least..........

starting_hand times_dealt win_pct
Q3o.... 36..... 2.7778
T2o.... 32..... 3.125
Q5o.... 31..... 3.2258
K2o.... 31..... 12.9032
85o.... 31..... 6.4516
87o.... 31..... 22.5806
64o.... 31..... 3.2258
74o.... 31..... 12.9032
72o.... 30..... 0
A2o.... 30..... 26.6667
J9o.... 30..... 23.3333
T3o.... 30..... 0
95o.... 30..... 0
KTo.... 29..... 31.0345
84o.... 29.... 6.8966
63o.... 29..... 0
Q9o.... 29..... 13.7931
Q4o.... 28..... 7.1429
A4o.... 28..... 25
K7o.... 28..... 25
KQo.... 27..... 40.7407
J8o.... 27..... 7.4074
75o.... 27..... 14.8148
AQo.... 27..... 74.0741
53o.... 27..... 11.1111
K5o.... 27..... 14.8148
A8o.... 27..... 33.3333
JTo.... 27......25.9259
93o.... 26..... 7.6923
98o.... 26..... 19.2308
83o.... 26..... 0
J2o.... 26..... 3.8462
54o.... 26..... 19.2308
62o.... 26..... 0
J7o.... 26..... 15.3846
Q7o.... 26..... 11.5385
ATo.... 26..... 42.3077
94o.... 25.... 0
43o.... 25..... 8
T6o.... 25..... 12
A5o.... 25..... 36
92o.... 25..... 0
42o.... 25..... 0
96o.... 24..... 0
65o.... 24..... 8.3333
K3o.... 24..... 8.3333
97o.....23..... 0
86o.... 23..... 4.3478
A6o.... 23..... 26.087
Q6o.... 23..... 13.0435
KJo.... 23..... 39.1304
AJo.... 22..... 31.8182
T8o.... 22..... 22.7273
A3o.... 22..... 13.6364
T9o.... 22..... 40.9091
73o.... 22..... 0
52o.... 22..... 0
A7o.... 21..... 23.8095
Q8o.... 21..... 14.2857
QQ..... 21..... 90.4762
QJo.... 20..... 60
T4o.... 20..... 5
J3o.... 20..... 5
J5o.... 20..... 15
K6o.... 20.... 10
AKo.... 19.... 78.9474
A9o.... 19.... 52.6316
J6o.... 19.... 0
Q2o.... 18.... 16.6667
77.... 18.... 61.1111
J4o.... 17.... 5.8824
QTo.... 17.... 35.2941
32o.... 17.... 5.8824
AA.... 17.... 76.4706
82o.... 17.... 0
T5o.... 16.... 0
JJ.... 16.... 62.5
Q8s.... 15.... 13.3333
99.... 15.... 66.6667
T9s.... 15.... 46.6667
54s.... 15.... 20
K8o.... 15.... 13.3333
66.... 15.... 33.3333
T7o.... 14.... 21.4286
J4s.... 14.... 14.2857
T6s.... 13.... 0
44.... 13.... 46.1538
K8s.... 13.... 30.7692
73s.... 13.... 7.6923
76o.... 13.... 0
87s.... 12.... 33.3333
88.... 12.... 50
K4o.... 12.... 41.6667
K7s.... 12.... 8.3333
JTs.... 12.... 41.6667
K9o.... 12.... 16.6667
K9s.... 12.... 41.6667
86s.... 11.... 0
92s.... 11.... 18.1818
98s.... 11.... 36.3636
QTs.... 11.... 54.5455
KK.... 11.... 81.8182
T4s.... 11.... 9.0909
22.... 11.... 45.4545
ATs.... 11.... 63.6364
Q5s.... 10.... 20
95s.... 10.... 10
33.... 10.... 40
A9s.... 10.... 40
J8s.... 10.... 50
84s.... 10.... 20
85s.... 9.... 11.1111
97s.... 9.... 22.2222
QJs.... 9.... 44.4444
T5s.... 9.... 0
T7s.... 9.... 11.1111
J2s.... 9.... 33.3333
K4s.... 9.... 22.2222
K6s.... 9.... 44.4444
55.... 9.... 33.3333
72s.... 9.... 0
Q3s.... 9.... 11.1111
83s.... 9.... 0
KTs.... 8.... 50
93s.... 8.... 0
Q7s.... 8.... 25
KJs.... 8.... 62.5
A7s.... 8.... 12.5
T2s.... 8.... 0
A8s.... 8.... 75
T8s.... 8.... 12.5
A3s.... 8.... 50
TT.... 8.... 50
J3s.... 8.... 0
A4s.... 8.... 37.5
43s.... 8.... 50
52s.... 8.... 0
J6s.... 8.... 25
J9s.... 8.... 62.5
74s.... 8.... 12.5
82s.... 8.... 0
96s.... 7.... 14.2857
KQs.... 7.... 71.4286
K3s.... 7.... 28.5714
62s.... 7.... 0
65s.... 7.... 42.8571
75s.... 7.... 28.5714
Q2s.... 7.... 0
A6s.... 7.... 71.4286
Q4s.... 7.... 0
AKs.... 7.... 57.1429
94s.... 6.... 0
Q9s.... 6.... 66.6667
A2s.... 6.... 0
K2s.... 6.... 33.3333
K5s.... 6.... 50
J5s.... 6.... 16.6667
J7s.... 6.... 0
63s.... 6.... 0
Q6s.... 5.... 40
T3s.... 5.... 20
AJs.... 5.... 60
32s.... 5.... 0
53s.... 5.... 20
A5s.... 4.... 50
AQs.... 4.... 100
42s.... 3.... 66.6667
76s.... 3.... 0

Core hands filter..........

starting_hand times_dealt win_pct
AA.... 17... 76.4706
AKs.... 7.... 57.1429
AKo.... 19.... 78.9474
AQs.... 4.... 100
AQo.... 27..... 74.0741
AJs.... 5..... 60
ATs.... 11.... 63.6364
KK.... 11.... 81.8182
KQs.... 7.... 71.4286
KQo.... 27.... 40.7407
KJs.... 8..... 62.5
QQ.... 21.... 90.4762
JJ.... 16.... 62.5
TT.... 8..... 50
99.... 15.... 66.6667
88.... 12..... 50
.......223.......66.95% win

Marginal hands filter.....
starting_hand times_dealt win_pct
ATo.... 18... 50
A8s.... 7.... 71.4286
A7s.... 5.... 20
A6s.... 4... 75
KJo.... 10.... 60
KTs.... 4.... 50
K9s.... 7.... 28.5714
K8s.... 7... 28.5714
QJs.... 6... 33.3333
QJo.... 11... 45.4545
QTs.... 7.... 42.8571
Q9s.... 3.... 66.6667
JTs.... 4.... 25
J9s.... 6.... 50
T9s.... 7.... 42.8571
T8s.... 4.... 0
98s.... 5.... 60
97s.... 6.... 33.3333
87s.... 8.... 25
86s.... 3.... 0
76s.... 3.... 0
75s.... 3.... 33.3333
66.... 12.... 33.3333
65s.... 5.... 40
55.... 7.... 42.8571
54s.... 7.... 14.2857
53s.... 2.... 50
44.... 5..... 80
43s.... 5.... 40
33.... 5.... 20
32s.... 3..... 0
........197......39.59%

2052 junk hands in the junk hand filter.

15.7% playable hands out of 2,722 hands.

All hands played win % out of 2722 hands 20.94%.

[rjp]

It sounds like you should start playing the lottery, beerman!!

:bbang:

[Baseballer]

i think satan created poker too tempted us, one minute your sky high in winnings and the next moment your bummed out about losing. sorry to hear about this robbery.

[Chris]

One thing you needto understand in regards to internet poker is that there are 1000's of hands being run threw the online randomizing dealer. so your percentages are off a bit just because of the shear volume of hands. I think many of those stats that you provided are for single table live games. Hey I have had AA K QQ JJ you name it cracked 1000 times. its just poker. but I do feel your pain.......

[snowman]

thats bad luck but with the 1000s of hands they go thru, there will be many more bad beats on-line then in live.

[snowman]

just saw chris's post. hes right with the numbers being off a bit.

[Chris]

There is no question that internet play and live play are very differenr. but if you really look close at the last 3 years you have to say to yurself why are the internet players winning more than the long time live players. Well the answer is simple. Many of te internet players keep there styles the same even for a big live tourney.. Very few of the pro's out there have adjusted there game for this other than maybe a handfull. Sure internet poker is more of a open game but IMHO there is tons of money to be made online than there is live in the long haul. Your live players are going to be more expiranced than most common everyday run of the mill internet players.

[beermantm]

There is no question that internet play and live play are very differenr. but if you really look close at the last 3 years you have to say to yurself why are the internet players winning more than the long time live players. Well the answer is simple. Many of te internet players keep there styles the same even for a big live tourney.. Very few of the pro's out there have adjusted there game for this other than maybe a handfull. Sure internet poker is more of a open game but IMHO there is tons of money to be made online than there is live in the long haul. Your live players are going to be more expiranced than most common everyday run of the mill internet players.

You know in all the years I've been gambling I take the things I do quite seriously. As for online I have a hard time believing that I could catch the cold streaks and bad beats in the sutained period of time that I do online as compared to live play. I understand the thousands of hands that are being played online and understand that I will see more hands and expect some bad beats but the problem I have is the cards seem to come in waves of sustained periods of time. The stats that I have posted are stats strickly played at one poker site on the internet. I'm not trying to make this a conspiracy theory either as most think when I first start posting things I don't like seeing. The stats do not lie the deals seem to be fairly even as far as the cards you get go. The win percentage on AA is right about where it should be with some of the win percentages are a bit off for other hands. So as far as the stats go I can't complain so much about that as I can complain about the things I see online as I play.

I sat in a room the other night and played (in a cash game) for about 7 hours. I made a couple hundred dollars for about 5 hours worth of play and was catching a piece of every flop that I played. I was hurting the room so bad that most of the players that were in the room would not go up against me if I even threw in a low 1 or 2 dollar bet but I kept playing though as I was having fun with winning. Things changed in the last two hours though as another player entered the room. He was a horrible card player....... He seen about 99% of flops and raised everyhand. He bet at everything so I knew he was stealing somwe of the pots but normally the players like this can not take me out of my game anyway as I play premuim and marginal hands and throw the rest away. The only problem was this guy caught a piece of every flop and almost everytime he made top pair or better and just seem to win every hand. I was the only guy in the room he folded too a couple of times because I'm not afraid to push my chips in the middle when I think I'm leading the hand but he eventually got almost all my chips because anytime I made a great hand and put money out there he made a better one. He was having the streak I had just got done having.

Now I feel as though I'm a good player and take the game pretty seriously but I don't have to be good when I'm getting the cards that will beat everyone at the table every hand I play and niether did this guy. He made money raiseing everyhand. Now my play might have gotten a little more sloppy but looking at my stats and replaying the night I truely do not think it did my luck just ran amuck which brings me back to why the cards fall the way they fall. The hand that broke me was at the last table with three people left at a six players max table. I had pocket 7's and the flop came out .......

3h 5h 5d

I bet a small bet to see where my oppenents were sitting..... everyone called.........

turn came out

3h 5h 5d 7h

I have the full house so I go all in so people put me on the flush witht he extra heart and hoping someone made the ace high flush............to my suprise both players called.......

River came out

3h 5h 5d 7h js .............

I'm holding the high end of the full house.........
the player to my left is holding pocket 5's for four of a kind 5's
and the third player is holding Ace high flush...........

Hands like this are incredible and totally inprobable with only three players at a table.........impossible??? No but highly unlikely. The way I'm seeing it kind of stacks up like this..........

The amount of cards you get dealt is prety accurate the amount of times you see certain hands are accurate but the times when you have those hands meet each other online seems out of line and cuases more money to be put into pots and adds to the rake the poker site charges.

From now on at least for myself I will be avoiding cash games online and stick to tourney's and SitNGo's which have no rake because the fee is paid up front. I seem to at least place in about 80% of the tourney's that I haved played online so if your good I think the profit is in the tourney area of online poker sites and the cash games are simply shaded. Just my opinion though so take it for what it is worth.

:gulp:

[Chris]

Well I would agree with most of what was said above. The thing is you have to open your game more up online. at least I do and it has helped me like you would not understand in multi tourney tabkles. My attitude going in is to accumulate fast and early. strike early and often. Get the table talking about you. then boom after you accumulate a few chips sit back and play biiggger cards. I sometimes come in with a raise on suited connecters. but for myself I am like you cahs games are a tough thing to beat online if you are not at least in the $10-20 games