NCAA College Basketball Jan. 20 , 2005

[lunatic]

San Diego -4 10 units


2-1***+1100.00


L :nuts: U :nuts: N :nuts: A :nuts: T :nuts: I :nuts: C

[lunatic]

San Diego last (3) games where on the road and they will be glad to be @ Home. Double digit winner @ Home here IMO

No place like HOME

[FlyersFan]

GL! holland's teams always play well at the jenny craig center (classic name). GL!

[lunatic]

Thanx FlyersFan you are 100% correct San Diego is tough @ Home and after losing two out of three on their past (3) games away from Home they will glad to be back and @ -4 has great value IMO not to mention the revenge factor losing both games last year to Portland. I don't play many games daily because I think Quality should come before Quanity.

BTW GL to you 2morrow also brother

[lunatic]

Nevada -4 5 units

Hawaii +11 5 units

2-1 +1100.00

[lunatic]

When a Home team like Pepperdine goes from pk to -2.5 its usually means that someone has pounded the visitor St. Mary's and vegas wants some action on Pepperdine. Well this o'le boy knows better.

St. Mary's +2.5 5 units

[DWD14]

Originally posted by lunatic
When a Home team like Pepperdine goes from pk to -2.5 its usually means that someone has pounded the visitor St. Mary's and vegas wants some action on Pepperdine. Well this o'le boy knows better.

St. Mary's +2.5 5 units

actually if the line moved that way it would mean that someone has pounded pepperdine. if it moves that much there is a lot of money coming in on pepperdine and vegas wants to limit the amount. ideally vegas wants 50/50 on a side. if the line moved so that pepperdine was once at a pick and now favored by 2.5 vegas would move that line so that those who wouldnt take st mary's at a pick may take them at +2.5. agree with the play, but just believe that the reason for the movement is to get people to not bet pepperdine anymore.
BOL tonight, i could be wrong about that and if so i apologize.

[lunatic]

Guys I'm not sure what the exact #'s are its just the observation I have noticed over the past and most of the time the visitor won outright. Good luck to all 2nite and lets cash-em in :gulp:

[lunatic]

Brother you may be right about that !!!!!

[Stifler's Mom]

Public is on Pepperdine, about 84% if that helps.

[lunatic]

Originally posted by Stifler's Mom
Public is on Pepperdine, about 84% if that helps.

thanx Stifler's Mom I appreciate the info. However I still think St. Mary's wins outright 2nite. Wasn't trying to mislead anyone its just I wasn't sure which way it went. I have been capping games for about 1 year now but have faired well thus far but still have alot more to learn from the veterans here.

[Stifler's Mom]

Yea, i only pointed that out because you guys were talking about line movement...not that i think it indicates who will win the game one way or the other.

With the public so big on Pepperdine, I would assume that's why the line moved.

Normally I would actually think such a big percentage of the public on a side would actually indicate a loser more times than not, but they've been kicking ass lately....so I'm not worrying about public percentages when making my plays until they start going down more often on these high percentage plays.

[lunatic]

Originally posted by Stifler's Mom
Yea, i only pointed that out because you guys were talking about line movement...not that i think it indicates who will win the game one way or the other.

With the public so big on Pepperdine, I would assume that's why the line moved.

Normally I would actually think such a big percentage of the public on a side would actually indicate a loser more times than not, but they've been kicking ass lately....so I'm not worrying about public percentages when making my plays until they start going down more often on these high percentage plays.

No problem Stifler's Mom like I said I have only been capping for about a year now and I still have a lot to learn and your reply was greatly appreciated. I'm not only here to post my plays but also here to gain more knowledge of capping and with replies like yours it only helps educate me more. That's what we are here for to help each other and make $$$$$. I'm not the kind of person that bashes one for trying to help nor think I'm some kind of capping KING because believe me I'm not. Just a everyday hard working American trying to make that extra dollar

[WildBillPicks7]

Pepperdine 12-5 straight up vs St Mary's last 17 games...St Mary's is at even scoring margin on the road, Pepperdine at home is a plus 12... Pepperdine hungry at home, St Mary's has some injuries in the front court since they beat Gonzaga.

Public money is on Pepperdine only because the line moved that way? Smart money moves the lines in one direction or the other as well when the wizeguys pound a game. Be careful when you say 84% is on Pepperdine, the smart money also moves the line, FYI...

Good luck on this one, I had Pepperdine at pick em overnight and this morning...I have them covering up to 6 points..

BOL

WB

[lunatic]

St. Mary's outright WINNER !!!!!

4-0 SWEEP !!!!

6-1 :nuts: +3600.00