NFL Playoff Preview (for those of you who like to read about the match-ups)

[BillyBarooooooo]

NFL Playoff Preview - (5) St. Louis (8-8) at (4) Seattle (9-7)

Revenge will be on the collective minds of the Seattle Seahawks on Saturday afternoon, when Mike Holmgren´s team plays host to the St. Louis Rams in an NFC Divisional Playoff.

The Seahawks wrapped up the NFC West title last week, edging the Falcons, 28-26, to claim the franchise´s first outright division crown since 1988. But Seattle topped the division despite being swept by the Rams, who stunned the home team in a 33-27 come-from-behind overtime thriller on Oct. 10, then added to the misery with a 23-12 handling of the Hawks on Nov. 14. Knocking St. Louis out of the postseason would help erase the remnants of those setbacks for Seattle, and would also give the Seahawks their first playoff win since 1984, when they downed the Raiders in an AFC Wild Card game.

The Rams, meanwhile, will be looking for the three-game sweep of Seattle while trying to extend their current winning streak to three games. Mike Martz and company were 6-8 and seemingly on the playoff ropes entering Week 16, when they defeated the Eagles (20-7), who helped the Rams prevail by playing their starters sparingly. Last week, St. Louis placed itself in the field of 12 by taking down the Jets, 32-29, in overtime. The Rams will be vying for their first postseason victory since 2001, when they reached the Super Bowl before falling to the Patriots.

SERIES HISTORY

The Rams lead the all-time series with Seattle, 9-4, and swept the home-and- home series between the division rivals this season. St. Louis was a 33-27 overtime winner in Seattle during Week 5, and completed the sweep with a 23-12 home triumph in Week 10. The Seahawks´ most recent win in the series came in 2003 at home, when they edged the Rams, 24-23.

This will mark the first-ever playoff meeting between the franchises.

Martz is 5-2 in his career against Seattle, and has the same record in his head-to-head series with Seattle´s Holmgren. The Seahawks´ skipper is 7-6 against the Rams all-time, including a 5-1 mark while with Green Bay (1992-98).

RAMS OFFENSE VS. SEAHAWKS DEFENSE

St. Louis is likely to do most of its offensive traveling via the air, as the team finished the regular season ranked fifth in NFL passing offense (265.8 yards per game). Quarterback Marc Bulger (3964 passing yards, 21 TD, 14 INT) comes off a season-high 450-yard passing effort in last week´s win over the Jets, as he spread the ball liberally to wideouts Torry Holt (7 receptions, 116 yards, 2 TD in the game), Isaac Bruce (5 receptions, 86 yards, 1 TD) and Kevin Curtis (6 receptions, 99 yards). Holt (94 receptions, 10 TD on the year) was held to seven catches for 85 yards and no touchdowns in his two games against Seattle this year. Bruce (89 receptions, 6 TD) fared better, totaling 13 grabs for 182 yards in the victories. In the Week 5 win, Bulger threw TD passes to Curtis (32 receptions, 2 TD), fellow wideout Shaun McDonald (37 receptions, 3 TD) and tight end Brandon Manumaleuna (15 receptions, 1 TD), but also threw three interceptions. The Rams allowed 50 sacks on the year, which was tied for 27th in the league, though the Seahawks dropped Bulger a total of just three times.

Bulger will have to avoid the big mistake against a playmaking Seattle secondary that was responsible for 21 picks during the regular season. Cornerback Ken Lucas (70 tackles) had a team-high six interceptions on the year, and two of those came off of Bulger in Week 5. Fellow CB Marcus Trufant (96 tackles, 5 INT) registered one in the same game, and also notched a pick off of Atlanta´s Matt Schaub last Sunday. Despite their big-play ability, the Seahawks ranked just 23rd in the league in passing defense (224.4 yards per game), and have given up nearly as many big plays as they have accounted for. Some of the problem rests with a pass rush that managed just 36 sacks on the year, a figure that was tied for 21st in the league. The team will likely be without end Grant Wistrom (knee), meaning more pressure will be on leading sack man Chike Okeafor (53 tackles, 8.5 sacks). Okeafor had two sacks of Bulger in Week 5.

The Rams have had their struggles running the football this season, and finished the regular season tied for 25th in the league in rushing offense (101.5 yards per game). But that luck of production was not evident in St. Louis´ Week 10 win over the Seahawks, when Marshall Faulk (774 rushing yards, 50 receptions, 4 TD) rushed for a season-high 139 yards on 18 carries. Backup Steven Jackson (673 yards, 4 TD) added 47 yards and a touchdown on 10 totes in that game. Last week, Martz´s team managed just 47 ground yards, including 29 on 10 carries for Jackson. The running game should be more effective if guard Tom Nutten (knee), who is doubtful with a knee sprain, is able to suit up.

Seattle ranked just 23rd in the league in rushing defense (126.9 yards per game) during the regular season, with a banged-up linebacking corps bearing most of the responsibility for that trend. The Falcons piled up 204 ground yards against the Seahawks last week, and LBs Chad Brown (37 tackles), Isaiah Kacyvenski (89 tackles) and Niko Koutovides (62 tackles) will have to do a better job against Faulk and Jackson. Okeafor was the line´s leading tackler in 2004, and the club will require a consistent effort from both he and tackles Cedric Woodard (49 tackles), Rashad Moore (46 tackles) and Rocky Bernard (39 tackles) in the run-stopping game. Bernard led that group with six tackles against Atlanta last Sunday.

SEAHAWKS OFFENSE VS. RAMS DEFENSE

The sting of failing to win the NFL rushing crown will likely be lessened this week for Seattle running back Shaun Alexander (1696 rushing yards, 23 receptions, 20 TD), who has given the Rams fits this season. Alexander rushed for 150 yards and a touchdown against St. Louis in Week 5, then bolted 22 times for 176 yards against the team five weeks later. Alexander did cough up a costly fumble in the latter game, however. The All-Pro was limited to 80 yards on 19 carries against Atlanta last Sunday, though he did chip in with his 20th touchdown of the year. Fullback Mack Strong (131 yards, 21 receptions) and third-down back Maurice Morris (126 yards, 21 receptions) have received frequent touches out of the backfield this season. The Hawks ranked eighth in the league in rushing offense (130.9 yards per game) in 2004.

St. Louis´ defensive Achilles heel has rested with an inability to stop the run, as the team was fourth from the bottom in NFL rushing defense (136.2 yards per game) during the regular season. The Jets piled up 180 ground yards on the Rams last week, including 153 from league rushing champion Curtis Martin. The linebacking corps of Robert Thomas (56 tackles) in the middle, Pisa Tinoisamoa (95 tackles, 1.5 sacks) on the weak side, and Tommy Polley (78 tackles) on the strong side has been a disappointment all year. The line has stopped the run sporadically, with end Leonard Little (46 tackles) and tackle Ryan Pickett (45 tackles) ranking as the most productive members of that unit.

Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck (3382 passing yards, 22 TD, 15 INT) has hit his stride of late, and was named NFC Offensive Player of the Month for his efforts during the club´s recent run. Hasselbeck completed 72 percent of his passes and threw for 10 touchdowns versus four interceptions in his final four regular season games. Darrell Jackson (87 receptions, 7 TD) has been the team´s No. 1 target this year, but he was held to three catches for 18 yards against the Falcons last Sunday. Jackson had five grabs for 91 yards and a score against St. Louis in Week 5. The status of Koren Robinson (31 receptions, 2 TD), who was suspended for last week´s game after missing a team walkthrough, is in doubt for Saturday. Veteran Jerry Rice (30 receptions, 3 TD) should see a wealth of time either way. Hasselbeck put up modest numbers in two outings against the Rams this year (35-71, 388 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT), but was sacked a total of once in the contests. Seattle ranked 13th in NFL passing offense (221.2 yards per game) during the regular season, and was 12th in sacks allowed (34).

Though the Rams´ secondary has not been regarded as a big-play unit, the team finished 2004 ranked a respectable 11th in the league against the pass (198.4 yards per game). Cornerback Jerametrius Butler (79 tackles, 5 INT) has all but one of the club´s interceptions on the year, with fellow CB Travis Fisher (34 tackles, 1 INT) posting the other. Butler intercepted Hasselbeck once in the Week 10 win St. Louis finished the regular season with the unusual distinction of having no picks from its linebackers or safeties, though strong safety Adam Archuleta (88 tackles, 2 sacks) was among the team leaders in stops. The Rams have struggled to bring a consistent pass rush, though they managed six sacks against the Jets last Sunday. End Bryce Fisher (48 tackles, 8.5 sacks) added two to boost his team-leading total, and fellow DE Little (7 sacks) had one as well. Little had the Rams´ only sack of Hasselbeck in Week 5, and the team did not drop him in their Week 10 triumph.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The Rams signed punter Kevin Stemke (39.8 avg.) to replace veteran Sean Landeta prior to Week 12, and the team has seen a slight improvement in its net punting average since that time. Jeff Wilkins (19-24 FG, 32-32 XP) remains one of the league´s most reliable kickers, and is 5-5 against the Seahawks this season. St. Louis has had scant production from its return game, as punt returner Shaun McDonald (4.8 avg.) and kickoff returner Aveion Cason (22.1 avg.) have both been weak. Cason is filling in for Arlen Harris (20.2 avg.), who remains doubtful with a hamstring strain. The Rams gave up one touchdown each on a punt and kickoff return during the regular season.

Seattle has used four different punters this season, with veteran Ken Walter (38.3 avg.) handling the duties of late. Walter has a net of just 33 yards on 24 punts. Kicker Josh Brown (23-25 FG, 40-40 XP) has fared better, and is 7-8 on kicks of 40 yards or better. Brown is 6-7 against the Rams this year. Punt returner Bobby Engram (11.8 avg.) is explosive, but kickoff return man Maurice Morris (21.1 avg.) has failed to break a big one. Seattle has not allowed a kickoff or punt return for a score during the campaign.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

Despite going 0-2 against the Rams during the regular season, Seattle remains the stronger of the two clubs on paper. Alexander gives the Seahawks a consistent force in the running game, and he should find plenty of rushing room against the Rams´ thin front seven. Hasselbeck should also thrive against a St. Louis defense that doesn´t provide much of a pass rush and doesn´t make a wealth of big plays in the secondary. Seattle has its own defensive struggles, particularly against the run, but can be counted on to turn in a couple of giant plays against the pass. The Seahawks, who will be gunning for their first postseason win in 20 years, also figure to have an emotional edge, particularly in front of a friendly crowd.

Predicted Outcome: Seahawks 31, Rams 24.

[BillyBarooooooo]

Jan 8th Preview - N.Y. Jets at San Diego
NFL Playoff Preview - (5) N.Y. Jets (10-6) at (4) San Diego (12-4)

San Diego will be abuzz on Saturday evening, as the hometown Chargers will face the New York Jets in the franchise´s first home playoff game in a decade. The Chargers last played at home in the postseason following the 1994 season, when they downed the Miami Dolphins, 22-21, in an AFC Divisional Playoff. The Bolts were AFC Champions that season, but have not won a postseason game since. In fact, the franchise has not played beyond the regular season since 1995. Marty Schottenheimer´s team won its 12th game of the year last week, defeating the Chiefs, 24-17.

San Diego will be playing host to a Jets team that is making a return to the playoffs following a one-year hiatus. Herman Edwards´ club reached the postseason despite losing three of their final four games, including a 32-29 overtime setback to the Rams last Sunday.

Saturday evening´s encounter will be a rematch of a Week 2 battle at Qualcomm Stadium, won by the Jets, 34-28.

SERIES HISTORY

San Diego holds a 17-11-1 lead in the all-time series with the Jets, but has lost the two most recent head-to-head meetings, both at home. The Chargers were 34-28 losers in Week 2, and also dropped a 44-13 decision in 2002. The Chargers´ last win over New York took place in 1994, and their most recent home victory in the series occurred in 1990.

This will mark the first meeting between the teams in the postseason.

Charger coach Marty Schottenheimer is 2-6 against the Jets all-time, including a 1-3 mark as head coach of the Cleveland Browns, and a 1-1 record while with the Kansas City Chiefs. The most memorable matchup between Schottenheimer and the Jets came in a 1986 AFC Divisional Playoff, which the Browns won, 23-20 in overtime. The Jets´ Herman Edwards is 2-0 against both Schottenheimer and San Diego all-time.

JETS OFFENSE VS. CHARGERS DEFENSE

The Jets attack begins with running back Curtis Martin (1697 yards, 41 receptions, 14 TD), who last week became the oldest player in NFL history to win the league rushing crown. The 31-year-old Martin rumbled for 153 yards on 28 carries, overtaking Seattle´s Shaun Alexander for the NFL lead. Martin rushed 32 times for 119 yards and two scores in New York´s Week 2 win over San Diego. Backup LaMont Jordan (479 rushing yards, 2 TD) has provided an effective change-of-pace in the rushing game, and averaged 5.2 yards per rush during the regular season. Jordan carried only once against the Chargers in September, but has seen his role enhanced greatly since. Fullback Jerald Sowell has 45 catches out of the backfield, which is tied for second on the team. Edwards´ squad ranked third in NFL rushing offense (149.2 yards per game) on the year, behind only Atlanta and Pittsburgh.

Their first effort against Martin and the Jets not withstanding, San Diego´s defensive strength in 2004 has been against the run. The unit ranked third in NFL rushing defense (81.7 yards per game) during the season, with inside linebackers Donnie Edwards (150 tackles, 5 INT) and Randall Godfrey (84 tackles) thriving in the team´s 3-4 scheme. Godfrey and Edwards were set up for success by a productive defensive line, one that has been paced by nose tackle Jamal Williams (32 tackles, 4 sacks) and rookie end Igor Olshansky (39 tackles). Godfrey and Williams were held out against the Chiefs for precautionary reasons, and Edwards had six tackles in limited time. Outside linebacker Ben Leber (60 tackles) led the way with nine stops in the game.

The pressure on Saturday will rest squarely upon the shoulders of Jets quarterback Chad Pennington (2673 passing yards, 16 TD, 9 INT), who has endured a rotator cuff injury, inconsistency, and run-ins with both the hometown media and his own offensive line this season. The Marshall product will look to rekindle the magic that was on display in a Week 2 win over the Chargers, when he completed 22 of 29 passes for 258 yards and a pair of touchdowns with no interceptions or sacks. Pennington will look for wideouts Justin McCareins (56 receptions, 4 TD) and Santana Moss (45 receptions, 8 TD) to get open, after the duo combined for just 90 receiving yards in last week´s loss to St. Louis. Moss has two 100-yard games to his credit this year, and caught four balls for 97 yards against San Diego in Week 2. The status of veteran Wayne Chrebet (31 receptions, 1 TD) is uncertain for Saturday, after the receiver sustained a concussion in the St. Louis loss. Pennington was sacked a season-high six times last week, and the New York line has now given up a modest 31 on the year.

The Chargers ranked next-to-last in NFL passing defense (253.3 yards per game) during the regular season, a statistic that was a by-product of both deficiencies in the secondary and with the pass rush. Cornerbacks Quentin Jammer (62 tackles, 1 INT) and Drayton Florence (36 tackles, 4 INT) will have to prove they can handle Moss and McCareins, and safeties Terrence Kiel (97 tackles, 2 INT) and Jerry Wilson (74 tackles, 3 INT) will be counted on for support. Florence and Kiel both had interceptions against Kansas City, and the Chargers rank among league leaders with 23 picks on the year. The San Diego pass rush accounted for just 29 sacks all year, which was tied for the third- worst figure in the NFL. Outside linebacker Steve Foley (64 tackles) had 10 of those sacks, and no other Charger posted more than four.

CHARGERS OFFENSE VS. JETS DEFENSE

The key to San Diego´s offensive success will be running back LaDainian Tomlinson (1335 rushing yards, 53 receptions, 18 TD), who figures to be healthy and well-rested after sitting out last week´s regular season finale against the Chiefs. Tomlinson has six 100-yard games to his credit this year, but was held to 87 yards on 19 carries by the Jets in Week 2. Tomlinson had 76 receiving yards in that loss. Backup Jesse Chatman (392 yards, 3 TD) has played well in relief of Tomlinson this year, and was also inactive in Week 17. The Chargers rank sixth in the league in rushing offense (136.6 yards per game).

The Jets have been mostly effective against the run this year, and were fifth in NFL rushing defense (97.9 yards per game) during the regular season. The run-stopping unit shut down the Rams last week, allowing Marshall Faulk and Steven Jackson to combine for just 44 ground yards. Linebackers Jonathan Vilma (107 tackles, 3 INT) and Eric Barton (107 tackles), who are tied for the team lead in stops, were a major factor in that effort. Defensive tackles Jason Ferguson (58 tackles, 3.5 sacks) and Dewayne Robertson (52 tackles, 3 sack) have been consistent at the point of attack all year. Robertson tallied five tackles and a forced fumble against the Bolts in Week 2.

San Diego quarterback Drew Brees (3159 passing yards, 27 TD, 7 INT) will enter Sunday´s game looking to erase the remnants of his worst outing of 2004, which came against the Jets on Sept. 19. Brees completed just eight of 19 passes for 146 yards in that game, throwing a touchdown and two interceptions before being benched in favor of Doug Flutie. Since that time, Brees has fashioned a Pro Bowl season, and this week won the NFL´s Comeback Player of the Year award. The signal-caller was held out of last Sunday´s win over the Chiefs, as were tight end Antonio Gates (81 receptions, 13 TD) and starting wideouts Eric Parker (47 receptions, 4 TD) and Keenan McCardell (31 receptions, 1 TD). Gates and Parker combined for just six catches and 58 yards against New York in Week 2. McCardell, who arrived in San Diego from Tampa Bay at the trade deadline, was not yet with the Chargers for that contest. The Chargers are 16th in the league in passing offense (210.4 yards per game), and are fourth in the NFL with just 20 sacks allowed.

The New York secondary comes off its shakiest outing of the year, as St. Louis quarterback Marc Bulger rung up 450 passing yards in last week´s win. Cornerbacks Donnie Abraham (53 tackles, 2 INT) and David Barrett (77 tackles, 2 INT) will be glad to see receivers other than Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce, but safeties Jon McGraw (39 tackles, 2 INT) and Erik Coleman (100 tackles, 4 INT) could have their hands full with Gates. Both McGraw and Coleman collected interceptions off of Brees in Week 2, and Coleman notched another pick last Sunday. Of some concern to Jets faithful is the status of end John Abraham (48 tackles, 9.5 sacks), who has missed the last four games with a knee injury and is listed as questionable for Saturday. In Abraham´s absence, DE Shaun Ellis (57 tackles, 11 sacks) has taken over the team lead in sacks, recording three against Bulger last week. The Jets ranked 14th in NFL passing defense (207 yards per game) during the regular season, and were tied for 17th in the league in sacks (37).

SPECIAL TEAMS

Jets punter Toby Gowin (38.2 avg.) has played to decidedly mixed reviews this season, and his net of 33.5 is hardly a thing of beauty. Kicker Doug Brien (24-29 FG, 33-34 XP) has been better, but missed on a would-be 53-yard game- winner in overtime against the Rams. Brien was 2-2 in San Diego during Week 2. Rookie kickoff returner Jerricho Cotchery (27.8 avg., 1 TD) gave the team a huge spark with a 94-yard touchdown return last week. Justin McCareins (6.3 avg.) has been handling punt returns of late, with modest results. The Jets gave up an 87-yard kickoff return for a score to Tim Dwight back in September, which remains the only return for a TD the team has allowed this year.

An underrated factor in the Chargers´ magical run is the outstanding play of its special teams. Punter Mike Scifres (43.1 avg.) and kicker Nate Kaeding (20-25 FG, 54-55 XP) have both been effective, and punt returner Eric Parker (8.8 avg.) and Dwight (24.4 avg., 1 TD) have both had their moments as well. If Dwight (hamstring), who is listed as questionable, is unable to go this week, kickoff return duties will likely be handled by rookie Robb Butler. San Diego gave up a pair of kickoff returns for scores during the regular season.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

The Chargers will have a great deal of things working in their favor this week, not the least of which will be an electric home atmosphere. The San Diego defense has the ability to limit Martin´s effectiveness, and Pennington has not shown much confidence in throwing the deep ball of late, which should benefit the up-and-down Charger secondary. On the other side of the ball, Tomlinson might not run wild, but Brees and his fleet of receivers should be able to make some gains against a Jet secondary that showed its many holes against the Rams. All signs point to a San Diego triumph, and don´t be surprised if it comes by a decisive margin.

Predicted Outcome: Chargers 30, Jets 13.

[BillyBarooooooo]

Jan 9th Preview - Denver at Indianapolis
NFL Playoff Preview - (6) Denver (10-6) at (3) Indianapolis (12-4)

A sense of deja vu will be in the air during Sunday´s AFC Wild Card contest, as the Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos square off for the second time in as many weeks. The Broncos were 33-14 winners over the Colts in last Sunday´s regular season matchup at Invesco Field at Mile High, but for this week´s postseason tilt, the scene shifts to the RCA Dome in Indianapolis. This also marks the second straight year that the Colts are playing host to the Broncos in an AFC Wild Card contest, as Indy was a 41-10 winner under similar circumstances last season.

Denver´s Week 17 win over Indianapolis might as well have had an asterisk attached. While the Broncos needed the victory to earn the AFC´s final spot in the postseason field, the Colts had already been locked into the No. 3 position, and thus rested a great number of their regulars. Quarterback Peyton Manning played one series and threw two passes, while running back Edgerrin James carried just once in the defeat. Still, the loss snapped an eight-game winning streak for Tony Dungy´s crew.

Although last week´s victory can hardly be considered a landmark for the Broncos, Mike Shanahan and company are hoping to continue the momentum that carried them into the playoffs for the second straight season. Denver appeared to be a playoff long-shot after a 3-5 stretch dropped the team to 8-6 following Week 15, but consecutive wins over the Titans and Colts, coupled with some help elsewhere in the AFC, helped the Broncos reach the 12-team field. Denver will be attempting to notch its first playoff win since quarterback John Elway guided the club to victory in Super Bowl XXXIII.

SERIES HISTORY

Denver holds an 11-4 edge in the all-time regular season series with Indianapolis, including a 33-14 home victory last Sunday. The Broncos were 31-17 winners when the teams last played a regular season game in Indy, last season.

The only postseason meeting between the teams took place last season, when Indianapolis won a 41-10 home matchup in an AFC First-Round Playoff.

Dungy is 3-3 in his career against the Broncos, including last year´s playoff win. Shanahan is 2-3 all-time against Indianapolis, including the postseason loss, and is 3-3 in his career against Dungy.

BRONCOS OFFENSE VS. COLTS DEFENSE

The Denver offense will be saddled with the responsibility of keeping the ball away from Manning and the Indianapolis attack, and the best way for the unit to achieve that will be on the ground. The Broncos ranked fourth in NFL rushing offense (145.8 yards per game) during the regular season, with bruiser Rueben Droughns (1240 rushing yards, 32 receptions, 8 TD) carrying most of the load and shifty rookie Tatum Bell (396 yards, 3 TD) coming on late in the campaign. Bell rushed 16 times for 91 yards against the Colts last week, and Droughns added 76 yards on 15 carries. Droughns averaged a healthy 4.5 yards per rush during the regular season, but also fumbled five times.

The task of slowing the Denver running game will fall to an Indianapolis defense that ranked just 24th in the league against the run (127.3 yards per game) during the regular season, Defensive tackles Montae Reagor (41 tackles, 5 sacks) and Josh Williams (34 tackles) will be at the center of that effort, along with end Raheem Brock (47 tackles, 6.5 sacks), who leads the line in stops. The Indianapolis linebacking corps of Cato June (110 tackles, 2 INT), David Thornton (92 tackles, 1 INT) and Rob Morris (77 tackles, 3 sacks, 1 INT) is among the least heralded in the NFL, but is capable of the occasional big play. June and Thornton played sparingly against Denver last Sunday, and Morris was held out.

Much like their rushing attack, the Broncos´ passing game has been effective at moving the ball, but has also been subject to costly turnovers. Denver ranked sixth in the league in passing offense (249.9 yards per game) during the regular season, but quarterback Jake Plummer (4089 passing yards, 27 TD, 20 INT) threw a number of untimely picks. Plummer completed 17 of 30 passes for 246 yards and two touchdowns against Indianapolis last Sunday, but also fumbled twice (he recovered both). Wideouts Rod Smith (79 receptions, 7 TD) and Ashley Lelie (54 receptions, 7 TD) have each had productive years. Smith tallied six catches for 76 yards in the Week 17 triumph, and Lelie posted three receptions for 70 yards and a score. Tight end Jed Putzier (36 receptions, 2 TD) has been an occasional middle-of-the-field target for Plummer. A veteran Denver offensive line has given up just 15 sacks this year, the third-lowest figure in the NFL.

The Colts ranked a distant 28th in the league in passing defense (243.2 yards per game) during the regular season, but that figure had little to do with a pass rush that tallied 45 sacks. End Dwight Freeney (34 tackles) led the NFL with 16 sacks on the year, and fellow DE Robert Mathis (36 tackles, 10.5 sacks), who has been slowed of late by a groin strain, wasn´t far behind. The combination of the gun-slinging Plummer and the furious Indy pass rush should mean some opportunities for the beleaguered Colts secondary, particularly cornerbacks Jason David (51 tackles, 4 INT) and Nick Harper (77 tackles, 3 INT). David had three tackles last Sunday, but Harper and starting free safety Idrees Bashir (57 tackles) were both inactive.

COLTS OFFENSE VS. BRONCOS DEFENSE

After sitting out most of last week´s loss to Denver, the incomparable Manning (4557 passing yards, 49 TD, 10 INT) will this Sunday look to become reacquainted with his three 1,000-yard receivers: Marvin Harrison (86 receptions, 15 TD), Reggie Wayne (77 receptions, 12 TD), and Brandon Stokley (68 receptions, 10 TD). All three saw limited time in the Denver loss, with Harrison catching a team-high five balls for 33 yards and a touchdown and Wayne adding three receptions for 90 yards and a 71-yard scoring catch. Manning will also look to involve tight ends Dallas Clark (25 receptions, 5 TD) and Marcus Pollard (29 receptions, 6 TD), who have been key components in the passing game all season. Indianapolis topped the league in passing offense (288.9 yards per game) on the year, and the underrated Colts line surrendered just 14 sacks, tied for the fewest in the league.

Denver´s inability to slow the Indianapolis passing game in last year´s playoffs prompted the team to make personnel changes, with cornerback Champ Bailey (81 tackles, 3 INT) and free safety John Lynch (64 tackles, 1 INT) the foremost new members of that group. Bailey and Lynch will need plenty of help from the other starters in the defensive backfield, namely cornerback Kelly Herndon (67 tackles, 2 INT) and strong safety Kenoy Kennedy (87 tackles, 1 INT). Herndon forced and recovered a Dominic Rhodes fumble last Sunday. Denver finished middle of the NFL pack with 38 sacks on the year, and will likely have some trouble getting to the quick-thinking Manning. End Reggie Hayward leads the team with 10.5 sacks, including one recorded last week, and no other Bronco has more than three on the year. Shanahan´s team ranked sixth in the league in passing defense (184.2 yards per game) during the regular season.

Indianapolis running back Edgerrin James (1548 yards, 51 receptions, 9 TD) carried just once in last week´s Denver loss, and will seek to re-establish the form that saw him ring up eight 100-yard games during the regular season. James has not eclipsed the century mark since his four-game 100-yard stretch was broken by Baltimore in Week 15. Backup Dominic Rhodes (254 rushing yards, 1 TD) rushed 12 times for 34 yards and fumbled once against the Broncos last week, but is unlikely to see many meaningful touches on Sunday. Indianapolis ranked 15th in the league in rushing offense (115.8 yards per game) during the regular season.

Vying to slow James will be a Denver run-stopping crew that ranked fourth in NFL rushing defense (94.5 yards per game) during the regular season. The linebacking corps of Al Wilson (104 tackles, 2.5 sacks), D.J. Williams (114 tackles, 2 sacks), and Donnie Spragan (67 tackles, 1 sack) was reliable all year, and Hayward (43 tackles) was the most prolific tackler on the line. Defensive tackles Monsanto Pope (24 tackles, 1 sack) and Mario Fatafehi (20 tackles, 2.5 sacks) will also look for involvement, with backup Ellis Johnson (16 tackles, 3 sacks) rotating in during long-yardage situations. Denver held the Colts´ backups to just 34 rushing yards last Sunday.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The Broncos replaced ineffective punter Micah Knorr with Jason Baker (39.4 avg.) following Week 13, a move that has provided diminishing returns. Kicker Jason Elam (29-34 FG, 42-42 XP) has been his trusty self, however, and last week made good on all four of his attempts. The team has utilized a variety of players to handle punt and kickoff returns this year, with Rod Smith (10.1 avg.) used most frequently on punts and Roc Alexander (20.3 avg.) fielding a club-high 19 kickoffs. Charlie Adams busted his first-ever NFL punt return for 39 yards last week, and could be a factor on Sunday as well.

The Colts´ kicking tandem of punter Hunter Smith (45.2 avg,) and kicker Mike Vanderjagt (20-25 FG, 59-60 XP) is one of the steadiest in the business, though Vanderjagt has uncharacteristically missed a few big kicks this season. Former Buccaneer Martin Gramatica has handled the team´s kickoffs of late. Kickoff return man Rhodes (24.8 avg., 1 TD) is capable of breaking a big one, but punt returners Troy Walters (5.7 avg.) and Brad Pyatt (5.9 avg.) have been less effective.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

Many are expecting the Colts, who received a long look at Denver´s first- string last week, to roll with their own first unit in the fold this week. And it is irrefutable that the Indianapolis offense should run at a higher level with Manning, James, and the fleet of receivers on the field for the entire game. But that view ignores the fact that the Broncos have a pretty effective offense of their own, one that should be able to move the ball regularly against a Colts defense that is shaky at best. Also, one would expect Bailey, Lynch and a Denver secondary that was revamped with slowing the Colts in mind to make an occasional stop against Manning. Plummer seems destined to make a mistake that turns the game in Indy´s favor, but don´t be surprised if the outcome is in doubt as the fourth quarter ticks away.

Predicted Outcome: Colts 34, Broncos 28.

[BillyBarooooooo]

Jan 9th Preview - Minnesota at Green Bay
NFL Playoff Preview - (6) Minnesota (8-8) at (3) Green Bay (10-6)

The heat will be turned up in an already-tense division rivalry on Sunday afternoon, when the Green Bay Packers play host to the Minnesota Vikings in an NFC Wild Card game. The winner of Sunday´s matchup at Lambeau Field will have earned the right to move on in the postseason. With a victory, the Packers will travel to play second-seeded Atlanta in an NFC Divisional Playoff next weekend, while the Vikings would visit top-seeded Philadelphia.

Minnesota will be looking to advance, and will also be trying to eliminate the bitter taste of two narrow regular season losses to Green Bay. The Vikings lost by identical 34-31 scores to the Packers in Week 10 and Week 16, the first time the franchise had been swept in a home-and-home against the team since 2000. Interestingly, 2000 was also the occasion of the Vikings´ most recent playoff appearance, as they reached the NFC Championship before falling to the Giants last year. As for this season, Mike Tice´s team limps into the playoffs having lost two in a row, four of their last five, and seven of their last 10 after starting the year 5-1. The Vikings were 21-18 losers in Washington last Sunday.

Green Bay, meanwhile, comes into Sunday´s game as one of the NFL´s hottest teams, having won nine of their last 11 since a 1-4 start. Mike Sherman´s club, which is in the postseason for the fourth consecutive season, defeated the Bears, 31-14, in Week 17. Despite their recent run of success, the Packers dropped the last contest they played at Lambeau Field, falling 28-25 to the Jaguars in Week 15. Green Bay was 4-4 at home during the regular season, and 6-2 away from Lambeau.

SERIES HISTORY

Green Bay leads the all-time series with Minnesota, which dates back to the 1961 season, by a narrow margin of 44-42-1. The Packers swept the 2004 series with their longtime division rival, winning by identical scores of 34-31 in Week 10 and Week 16. Minnesota´s last win in the series came at Lambeau Field in 2003, when they prevailed by a 30-25 count.

This will mark the first postseason meeting between the teams.

Sherman has a 7-3 record against the Vikings all-time, while Tice is 2-4 versus both the Packers and Sherman as a head coach.

VIKINGS OFFENSE VS. PACKERS DEFENSE

The Vikings will bring the NFL´s No. 2 passing offense (282.2 yards per game) into Green Bay on Sunday, with quarterback Daunte Culpepper (4717 passing yards, 39 TD, 11 INT) spearheading the attack. Culpepper led the NFL in passing yards during the regular season, and threw for 648 yards and seven touchdowns without an interception in two meetings with the Packers this year. Wideout Nate Burleson (68 receptions, 9 TD) had 100-yard outings in both matchups, helping compensate for the absence of Randy Moss (49 receptions, 13 TD). Moss did not play against the Pack in Week 10, and had just two catches for 30 yards and a score in the Christmas Eve tilt. Tight end Jermaine Wiggins (71 receptions, 4 TD) has 10 catches and a touchdown versus Green Bay this season, and posted a team-high seven grabs for 58 yards in last week´s loss to the Redskins. The Minnesota offensive line gave up 46 sacks during the regular season, including four last Sunday and four against the Packers in Week 10. Green Bay did not sack Culpepper in Week 16.

Culpepper will look to again pick on a Green Bay secondary that features a pair of less-than-heralded cornerbacks in Al Harris (62 tackles, 1 INT) and rookie Ahmad Carroll (49 tackles, 1 INT). The tandem has relied on free safety Darren Sharper (70 tackles, 4 INT) for assistance during much of the season, with Sharper´s 43-yard interception for a score last week ranking as another big play for the veteran. Looking to keep the pressure off of the secondary is a Packer pass rush that has made big strides since a slow start. The unit finished the regular season tied for ninth in the league with 40 sacks, with end Kabeer-Gbaja Biamila´s 13.5 leading the way. Gbaja-Biamila had two sacks of Culpepper in Week 10, but the team did not drop Culpepper in the matchup at the Metrodome. Green Bay finished the regular season ranked 25th in the league in passing defense (228.9 yards per game).

Though he turned in a weak effort in Washington (8 carries, 19 yards), it appears that the Vikings will stick with Michael Bennett (276 rushing yards, 21 receptions, 2 TD) as their primary ball carrier. Bennett carried 17 times for 92 yards and a touchdown against Green Bay on Christmas Eve, and also caught three passes for 67 yards and a score. Bennett´s backup figures to be Onterrio Smith (544 rushing yards, 36 receptions, 4 TD), and Moe Williams (161 rushing yards, 21 receptions, 4 TD) should continue to be featured in the role of third-down back. Williams had four catches for 57 yards and a touchdown versus the Packers in Week 10. Tice´s team ranked 18th in NFL rushing offense (113.9 yards per game) during the regular season.

The largest obstacle in running the ball against the Packers is massive defensive tackle Grady Jackson (23 tackles, 1 sack), who helps tie up the middle along with fellow interior lineman Cletidus Hunt (32 tackles, 2 sacks). The presence of the pair makes life easier for linebackers Nick Barnett (123 tackles, 3 sacks), Na´il Diggs (80 tackles) and Hannibal Navies (47 tackles) who are undersized but sure tacklers. End Aaron Kampman leads the line with 67 stops on the year, and is tied for second on the club with 4.5 sacks. Green Bay was 14th in the league in rushing defense (117.4 yards per game) following Week 17.

PACKERS OFFENSE VS. VIKINGS DEFENSE

Establishing the run will likely be a priority for the Packers, who will turn to All-Pro running back Ahman Green (1163 rushing yards, 40 receptions, 8 TD) to get the job done in that regard. Green carried just four times against Chicago last week, but has lodged an impact in both meetings with the Vikings this year. The Nebraska product rumbled for 145 yards on 21 carries in Week 10, and had 64 rushing yards and a touchdown to go along with four receptions against the team in Week 16. Najeh Davenport (359 rushing yards, 2 TD), who sat out last week with a shoulder injury, has been a productive backup to Green this year. Tony Fisher (224 rushing yards, 38 receptions, 2 TD), who carried 19 times for 42 yards against Chicago last Sunday, caught a touchdown pass against Minnesota in Week 10. Sherman´s squad ranked 10th in NFL rushing offense (119.2 yards per game) during the regular season.

The Vikings have been largely ineffective against the run this season, and the 118-yard day they yielded to Redskins backup Ladell Betts last Sunday was hardly an encouraging sign. The underachieving linebacking corps of E.J. Henderson (93 tackles), Chris Claiborne (56 tackles), and Keith Newman (47 tackles, 3 sacks) will have to do better against Green, whom they held in check on Christmas Eve. The Vikings´ most disruptive run-stopper during the regular season was tackle Kevin Williams (70 tackles, 12 sacks), who leads the line in stops and also paces the team in sacks and fumble recoveries. Fellow tackle Spencer Johnson (40 tackles) has also played well this year, and end Kenny Mixon (46 tackles) has been the second-most productive tackler in the trenches. Minnesota ranked 21st in the league in rushing defense (125.4 yards per game) during the regular season.

Green Bay quarterback Brett Favre (4088 passing yards, 30 TD, 17 INT) will be seeking an encore performance to his Week 16 effort against the Vikings, when he completed 30 of 43 passes for 365 yards and three touchdowns in a come- from-behind victory. Donald Driver (84 receptions, 9 TD) recorded 11 catches for 162 yards and a touchdown in that game, and fellow WR Javon Walker (89 receptions, 12 TD) chipped in with five receptions for 90 yards and a score. Tight end Bubba Franks (34 receptions, 7 TD), who had four grabs for 59 yards and a TD in the Chicago triumph, should serve as a middle-of-the-field option for Favre. The Green Bay line allowed just 14 sacks all year, which was tied for the league low, and Minnesota had just one sack in two games against the team.

A unit that ranked third from the bottom in NFL passing defense (243.5 yards per game) this year will be hampered by the absence of strong safety Corey Chavous (elbow) from the lineup this week. Chavous will be replaced by Willie Offord (28 tackles), who had six stops against the Redskins. Handling Driver and Walker will be the responsibility of cornerbacks Brian Williams (74 tackles, 2 INT) and Antoine Winfield (85 tackles, 3 INT), who mostly struggled against the tandem in Week 16. Free safety Brian Russell (81 tackles, 1 INT) will have to lend assistance. The secondary will count on some help from a pass rush that has chipped in with 39 sacks this year, including a team-high 12 from Kevin Williams and 11 from backup end Lance Johnstone (31 tackles). Johnstone had a sack and a forced fumble against Favre on Christmas Eve.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Vikings punter Darren Bennett (39.3 avg.) hasn´t had a spectacular year, but has been steady in his first season with the team. Veteran kicker Morten Andersen (18-22 FG, 45-45 XP) is accurate, but is not a candidate to handle long-range kicks, particularly outdoors. Jose Cortez will handle kickoffs. Burleson (8.6 avg., 1 TD) can break the occasional long punt return, but Mewelde Moore (19.3 avg.) and Kelly Campbell (21.7 avg.) haven´t offered much on kickoffs. Minnesota gave up a kickoff return for a score to Detroit´s Eddie Drummond this season, their only TD allowed on special teams in 2004.

Green Bay has lacked a top-notch punter for several years, and Bryan Barker (40.1 avg.) has been decent but hasn´t offered the team much in the way of greatness. Longtime kicker Ryan Longwell (24-28 FG, 48-48 XP), who is 4-4 against Minnesota this year including a game-winner in Week 10, is extremely reliable. Antonio Chatman (7.7 punt return avg., 22.6 kickoff return avg.) hasn´t broken a long one in the return game yet this season. The Packers have not yielded a return for a score this season.

OVERALL ANALYSIS

Minnesota has several stats working against it this week, including Green Bay´s lusty postseason record at Lambeau Field, the Packers´ advantage in cold weather, and the Vikings´ own 2-20 record on grass since 2000. But one can just as easily break out the fact that the Pack is a modest 4-4 at Lambeau this year, and that the weather is going to be in the 30s at game time on Sunday, practically balmy for Green Bay in January. The first two games of this series have been played so evenly, there is little logical reason to suggest the third installment will be any different. Don´t be surprised if this is the game that the Minnesota offense finally takes consistent advantage of the Packers´ weak secondary, and that the Vikings make a rare big defensive play against a Green Bay attack that has made its share against many other opponents.

Predicted Outcome: Vikings 35, Packers 32.

[BillyBarooooooo]

Rams vs. Seahawks

Why To Watch

A win over Atlanta in the regular-season finale gave Seattle its first NFC West title in franchise history, and it also may have saved head coach Mike Holmgren's job. Holmgren has now led the Seahawks into the postseason three times in six years, but his team has yet to win a playoff game and St. Louis has beaten the Seahawks the last three times these teams have met.

Seattle's formula for success will be a strong commitment to the run, taking advantage of red-zone opportunities, and protecting the football. Conversely, St. Louis should use its passing game to set up the ground attack, as Mike Martz's team lives and dies by the big play and isn't afraid to take risks in search for one. Will the more conservative Seahawks move on to the second round of the playoffs for the first time under Holmgren or will Martz's no-risk, no-reward Rams end their NFC West rival's season on yet another disappointing note?


When the Rams have the ball

Rushing: Starting RB Marshall Faulk has been hindered by a nagging knee injury, so backup Steven Jackson should continue to get the majority of the carries. Jackson possesses a good combination of size and speed. His ability to bring his own block and the second gear he shows in the open field makes him an excellent fit for a one-back, spread scheme.

St. Louis will frequently run out of its multiple-receiver sets when he is in the game consequently. Spreading the field will stretch Seattle's run defense horizontally, forcing its linebackers to line up wider and cover more ground. It effectively weakens the interior run defense and creates lanes for Jackson between the tackles. As a result, the Rams should be able to keep the Seahawks honest with their running game.

However, there are two reasons to believe St. Louis won't have a big day running the ball despite the fact Seattle's run defense is giving up an average of 4.5 yards per carry. LOG Tom Nutten is likely out with a knee injury and rookie Larry Turner is expected to replace him. Turner's lack of ideal experience is a concern and it could lead to some breakdowns in the blocking scheme that limit Jackson's production between the tackles. Also, Faulk clearly isn't as explosive as he was earlier in the season. He should be able to keep Jackson fresh and make a valuable contribution in the passing game, but don't look for him to break many long runs.

Passing: QB Marc Bulger finished the regular season with two strong performances and head coach Mike Martz has made it clear that he has a tremendous amount of confidence in his signal-caller. Look for the Rams, who opened up the game with 13 passes the last time these teams played, to come out throwing the ball as a result.

St. Louis should have most of its success attacking the middle of the field, as the Seahawks have banged-up linebackers and lack ideal experience at safety. In addition, nickel back Bobby Taylor, who has missed the last six games with a knee injury, could return to the lineup and the Rams will want to test him should he play. Spreading the field will create favorable single-coverage matchups and St. Louis can take advantage by running some crossing routes as well quick-slants with its slot receivers.

No. 3 and No. 4 WRs Kevin Curtis and Shaun McDonald both have the burst to get open quickly and their ability to catch the ball in-stride makes them very dangerous after the catch. Once Curtis and McDonald start to draw the safeties' attention toward the middle, Bulger will have an easier time finding WRs Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce downfield.

Of course it won't matter how open the Rams' receivers are if Bulger doesn't get enough time to go though his reads and set his feet. It's also important to note that Bulger will try to make too much happen at times and doesn't always make good decisions under pressure, so quality pass protection will be critical. The problem is that will be easier said than done. Seattle defensive coordinator Ray Rhodes can be very aggressive and should regularly blitz Bulger in an effort to prevent the streaky quarterback from getting into a rhythm.

When the Seahawks have the ball
Rushing: The Seahawks run a version of the West Coast offense and they too commonly spread the field, but expect a run-heavy attack. RB Shaun Alexander has dominated a St. Louis run defense that been among the worst in the league, as he has averaged over seven yards per carry the last two times he's played against the Rams.

Expect Seattle to give Alexander somewhere in the neighborhood of 30 carries in an effort to control the clock and limit Bulger's opportunities to put points on the board. Staying committed to the running game will set up the play-action package and should create shorter third-down conversion attempts that help keep the Rams off balance. It will also help keep St. Louis' front four on its heels and the Seahawks should focus on pounding the ball right at LDE Leonard Little with that in mind.

Little is an explosive pass rusher who will give ROT Floyd Womack plenty of problems when Seattle drops back to pass, but he is undersized and vulnerable to wearing down over the course of the game. Womack has the bulk to tire Little out if the Seahawks consistently run behind him and that should buy QB Matt Hasselbeck a little more time to find the open receiver when he drops back to pass in the second half.

However, Seattle must make sure to seal the back side whether it does it with a back, tight end or Womack when it runs behind the left side of the offensive linemen. Little possesses rare closing speed for a defensive end and he excels in pursuit. It's also important to note that Alexander fumbled inside the red zone the last time these two teams played and he can't afford to make the same mistake.

Passing: Although the Seahawks have had success moving the ball between the 20s against the Rams, they have struggled to punch into the end zone. In fact, their five trips inside St. Louis' red zone the last time these teams played produced just three field goals. With the Rams moving SS Adam Archuleta, who excels in run support, into the box when Seattle gets inside the 20-yard line, Alexander is having a harder time finding seams. As a result, the Seahawks will have to keep St. Louis' red zone defense honest with some passes when it gets near the goal line.

Seattle doesn't have great height at receiver, but 6-7 TE Jerramy Stevens is versatile enough to line up on the perimeter and he has caught a touchdown pass in two of the last three games. He is capable of winning any jump balls in the end zone, making him extremely effective running fade routes, and Hasselbeck needs to continue to take advantage of that strength.

Seattle will also help Hasselbeck by rolling him out of the pocket and giving him the option of either throwing or running at times. This will put pressure on a Rams linebacker corps that can be overaggressive. If it fills in run support before he crosses the line of scrimmage, Hasselbeck should be able to find an open receiver underneath. He is quick enough to pick up a few yards when the linebackers stay in coverage too long.

Scouts' Edge

It's very difficult for any organization to beat one team three times in the same year. Furthermore, defenses that have problems stopping the run generally don't last long in the playoffs, and this game will be played in Seattle. None of that bodes well for St. Louis.

However, the Seahawks blew a 17-point lead when these teams met in Seattle earlier this year and they have not experienced success in the playoffs under Holmgren. In addition, Bulger appears to be hitting stride at exactly the right time.

Both teams have been extremely inconsistent. How well each handles the pressure of postseason play remains to be seen, making the outcome that much harder to predict.

[BillyBarooooooo]

Jets vs. Chargers

Why To Watch

Saturday night's AFC wild-card matchup between the Jets and Chargers in San Diego is actually a rematch of a Week 2 meeting in which the Jets won 34-28. Much has changed since then, however, as the Jets went 5-6 down the stretch compared to a Chargers team that won nine of its last 10 games.

QB Drew Brees, RB LaDainian Tomlinson and TE Antonio Gates lead a balanced offensive attack and the Chargers' front seven has developed into one of the fiercest units of its kind in the NFL. If the Jets, who "back-doored" their way into the playoffs with consecutive losses to finish the season, are to pull off the sizeable upset, they'll need a career performance from QB Chad Pennington and his receiving corps, as record-setting 32-year old RB Curtis Martin simply won't be able to shoulder the offensive load as usual against the league's third-ranked run defense.

When the Jets have the ball

Rushing: This is the facet of the game that potentially could be devastating to the Jets. Coordinator Paul Hackett's offense is dependent on the running game to set up the pass. For the most part the unit has been successful in doing so with Martin finishing as the NFL's oldest running back to lead the league in rushing. However, against upper-echelon run defenses such as the one the Jets faced in Week 14 against the Steelers and Week 16 against the Patriots, the unit has failed to maintain its blueprint for success.

The problem the team has is that it struggles to work in the opposite direction with the pass setting up the run. It also lacks the depth and speed at wide receiver to spread opposing defenses out in order to loosen up big, physical front sevens like the one it will face in San Diego. The Jets have one of the bigger, stronger and better run-blocking offensive lines in the NFL. OC Kevin Mawae is a crafty veteran who still ranks among the elite run blockers at his position and OGs Pete Kendall and Brandon Moore are classic maulers who typically overwhelm opposing defensive tackles with their power and leverage.

The problem is that the Chargers' defensive front three seems to get its job done even against the biggest and toughest offensive lines in the business. The scheme doesn't require playmaking skills from the Charger defensive linemen but it does call on NT Jamal Williams and DEs Igor Olshansky and Jacques Cesaire to play with discipline and occupy gaps.

If that group can continue to successfully execute its assignments against the interior of the Jets' offensive line, it will make sledding tough for Martin and LaMont Jordan against a linebacker corps with a good mix of size, athleticism, toughness, instincts and tackling skills with Randall Godfrey and Donnie Edwards inside and Ben Leber and Steve Foley outside.

Passing: The Chargers finished the regular season tied for third-to-last in the NFL with just 29 sacks and 31st in the league in overall pass defense. As good as the Chargers' front three has been in terms of taking up space versus the run, there isn't a playmaking pass rusher among them. Foley is the unit's best pass rusher with 10 sacks, but there isn't enough complementary help around him.

Due to the Chargers' lack of range at the safety position (Terrence Kiel and Jerry Wilson), along with the inconsistent play of RCB Drayton Florence and nickel CB Sammy Davis, defensive coordinator Wade Phillips simply can't afford to take many chances with the blitz. The big question, however, is if the Jets can exploit their opponent's biggest weakness in this game. Judging by past results, film study and individual matchup analysis, the answer has to be no.

For starters, Pennington's shoulder clearly is still less than 100 percent. He has never had good arm strength and now it has become a liability, as defenses are "pinching" him inside and forcing Pennington to make throws outside the numbers that exploit his lack of velocity. WRs Santana Moss and Justin McCareins flash vertical potential, but neither has been as consistent as expected. Secondly, with Pennington struggling to drive the ball downfield, Moss and McCareins' potential for big-play production is severely limited.

Finally, Pennington is one of the best in the business when it comes to selling play-fakes and spreading the ball underneath to his backs and tight ends against linebackers that are caught taking false steps. However, against a veteran linebacker corps with one of the league's elite cover linebackers manning the middle on passing downs, those dump-off routes won't be as readily available.

Overall, if the Jets could establish a running game in order to set up the play-action passing series, it would create a lot of potential mismatches for Pennington to attack. However, if the Jets are unable to force the Chargers to overextend a safety in run support or if they are forced to abort the run completely in an effort to throw from behind, then Pennington simply doesn't have the arm or the array of weapons to efficiently operate the Jets' offense in this road game.

When the Chargers have the ball
Rushing: San Diego's offense is balanced. It has proven capable of beating opponents in the air, on the ground and with a mix of both. Against a Jets defense that has been considerably more successful defending the run than it has been versus the pass, look for the Chargers to pass in order to set up the run. Offensive coordinator Cam Cameron has done a good job of mixing up formations and personnel groupings in order to keep opponents on their heels, and the flexibility that Gates provides at the tight end position has a lot to do with that.

Gates spends a good majority of the time in-line as a traditional tight end, but he has been equally effective as a receiver and run blocker when "flexed" out as a slot receiver-type. In order to generate some mismatches in the passing game, as well as to limit the amount of defenders the Jets can use inside "the box", look for Gates to spend a lot more time "flexed" out.

The Jets use a hybrid 3-4/4-3 defensive front alignment, but the personnel essentially remain the same with Shaun Ellis at LDE, Jason Ferguson at NT and Dewayne Robertson at either DT in the 4-3 or DE in the 3-4. The Jets have been getting very good penetration from their defensive front and their linebacker corps has been active, tough and aggressive. The unit has gotten surprisingly effective play from fill-in starting SLB Mark Brown, and WLB Eric Barton and rookie MLB Jonathan Vilma show very good range and athleticism.

If the Chargers simply try to line up and pound away at the Jets front seven with Tomlinson on the ground they'll be unpleasantly surprised with the results. However, if the Chargers can do a good job of spreading the Jets out through the air early on in order to force the Jets into nickel personnel as their base package, it will leave the Jets susceptible to the run later on.

Passing: The Jets will really miss RDE/OLB John Abraham if he's unable to make his return in this game. Without him, the Jets' only consistent pass rusher has been Ellis, who recorded three sacks against the Rams in the team's regular-season finale. After studying that film, the Chargers will give him more attention by sliding their pass-blocking scheme and by chipping him with backs and tight ends.

The catch-22 the Jets will have without Abraham is that they leave themselves exposed underneath against Tomlinson and Gates, who combined for 134 receptions this season, if they blitz too often. However, if they sit back with seven defenders in coverage and give Brees time to set up, make his progression reads and step into his throws, the matchups in the secondary aren't not very promising for the Jets.

San Diego doesn't have any elite playmakers on the perimeter, but its versatility and array of pass-catching weapons make it extremely difficult to defend the entire field. Because Tomlinson and Gates are such prominent figures in the passing attack, the Jets will be forced to give Tomlinson more linebacker attention and Gates more safety attention than they would like. Barton and Vilma are two very good athletes in coverage, which will help the Jets matchup underneath against Tomlinson, but neither can be consistently left alone one-on-one.

Furthermore, Gates has a significant size advantage over SS Reggie Tongue and would be a big matchup problem for the veteran safety if left alone to frequently. That means the Jets will have to play more "soft" cover-2 zone than coordinator Donnie Henderson would wants in order to limit Tomlinson underneath and Gates down the seams.

With Eric Parker, Keenan McCardell, Kassim Osgood and "tweener" TE/WR Ryan Krause rounding out a deep and surprisingly productive receiving corps, the Chargers should also be able to spread the field with a lot of multiple-receiver sets in order to flood areas against the Jets' zone coverage, as well as generate mismatches against the below-average cornerback trio of David Barrett, Donnie Abraham and Terrell Buckley.

Scouts' Edge

So much has changed since these teams met 16 weeks ago that it's not even worth it to dust off the film when breaking down Saturday's wild-card matchup. The Jets can be an effective team when they chew up clock and wear an opponent down with Martin on the ground, but that won't be an option against one of the league's elite run defenses.

Pennington is extremely effective when working out of the play-action passing package, but he doesn't have the arm strength or the weapons at wide receiver and tight end to fully exploit the Chargers' only weak link on defense, which is their secondary. The Jets lack the pass rush and secondary play to throw Brees' timing off. Once the Chargers open up a lead, Tomlinson can act as the closer in the second half against a Jets defense that already looks tired and should wear down easily after a cross-country trip in much warmer conditions than it is used to back in the northeast.

[BillyBarooooooo]

Broncos vs. Colts

Why To Watch

Familiarity adds an element of intrigue in this matchup. Not only do these teams face off for the second week in a row, but this is the second-consecutive year the Colts play host to the Broncos in the AFC wild-card round. The outcome will depend largely on the team that is able to dictate the tempo of play.

The high-powered, yet balanced Colts' offense will look to spread the Broncos out and attack by air and by ground with Peyton Manning, Edgerrin James and Marvin Harrison leading the charge. Denver, on the other hand, knows its only chance of keeping up is to play keep away with strong dedication to the run with Reuben Droughns and Tatum Bell. The Broncos' defense matches up better against Indy's offense than most, but can quarterback Jake Plummer limit his mistakes in order to give his team a chance to pull off the upset?


When the Broncos have the ball

Rushing: This is where the game will be won or lost for Denver. The Broncos' only chance of keeping things close is to control the clock and field position with an overwhelmingly methodical and successful running attack. Their offensive line has the right combination of size, strength and athleticism to eventually where down an undersized but extremely active and disruptive defensive front seven of the Colts.

Until they can exploit the Colts via the air, the Broncos will have to get used to blocking against eight-man fronts with SS Mike Doss cheated up as a fourth-linebacker type. Because the Broncos lack of depth at wide receiver, they'll spend most of their time in either two-back sets or two-tight end sets, which means this matchup will essentially be played in a phone booth. The Broncos are famous for their zone-blocking running scheme, which allows their offensive linemen to block an area rather than matching up one-on-one. Within that scheme, cutting backside defensive linemen and making second-level blocks against backside linebacker and/or safeties are crucial in order to set up cutback lanes for Droughns and Bell to exploit.

The Colts should receive a boost with the return of MLB Rob Morris, who missed significant time in the final month of the season due to two concussions. Morris doesn't have great speed or athletic ability, which makes him a target in the passing game, but he is the Colts' biggest, strongest and toughest linebacker. With eight-man fronts and two of the faster OLBs in the NFL manning the perimeter in David Thornton and Cato June, running east-west won't be an effective means of establishing the run.

In fact, if the Broncos are going to slow the tempo down and keep Manning off the field, their best bet is to go with a heavy dose of the bigger and more powerful Droughns early on in order to best utilize his north-south running style, and then get the faster and more explosive Bell involved later on when the Colts' defense begins to wear down.

Passing: Plummer might be the biggest individual "X-factor" in this game. He has always been a scrappy, competitive quarterback who is capable of getting into a "zone" and making a lot of plays in a big game like this. The problem, however, is that his mental mistakes and critical errors can overshadow the plays he does make and, if things start to go poorly early on, Plummer is the type of quarterback who will self-implode. His role in this game is two-fold: 1) limit drive-killing mistakes and turnovers, and 2) exploit man-coverage when the Colts get caught being overaggressive.

The passing attack will take a backseat to the run, but balance will also be critical in order to keep the Colts honest on defense and to exploit them for some big plays when they get caught cheating. The play-action passing package is where Plummer does his best work and it should be available throughout Sunday's game – particularly on first and second downs. When the Colts do move Doss up into "the box" they'll be left with three defenders to cover the deep one-thirds of the field – either man-to-man or in cover-3 zone fashion.

Either way, CBs Jason David and Nick Harper go from being protected downfield by their safeties to being responsible for turning and running against WRs Rod Smith and Ashley Lelie, respectively. When the Colts are left exposed in those situations, Plummer has to do a great job of looking off FS Bob Sanders and making throws that put his receivers in position to make plays against the Colts' overmatched corners.

Smith should be a reliable short-to-intermediate option for Plummer throughout the game but Lelie has the speed and playmaking skills to provide the home run. Because the Colts are so athletic at outside linebacker they should be able to keep the Broncos' running backs and tight ends in check. That's why Plummer's ability to make perimeter throws to Smith and Lelie is critical.

When the Colts have the ball

Rushing: Denver has quietly had one of the stouter run defenses in the NFL, allowing just 94.5 yards per game on the ground during the regular season. For starters, Champ Bailey's presence on one side of the field has afforded the team the luxury of cheating one of their two safeties – John Lynch and Kenoy Kennedy – up into the box on early downs.

Secondly, as rookie WLB D.J. Williams' instincts and recognition skills have improved, so too has the overall range of the second-level defense. Finally, even without LDE Trevor Pryce throughout almost the entire regular season, the Broncos' front four has played with discipline across the board and its depth at defensive tackle with Monsanto Pope, Mario Fatafehi and Ellis Johnson has allowed the interior to stay fresh, strong and active.

As a result, the Colts will need to spread the Broncos out with multiple-receiver sets and throw in order to set up the run. The one advantage the Colts have in this game is that even Bailey will need occasional help in coverage against Harrison. With WRs Reggie Wayne and Brandon Stokley also demanding attention and with TE Dallas Clark providing a vertical presence down the middle, the Broncos will often be relegated to nickel and dime personnel and rarely will be able to crown the line of scrimmage in support of the run.

With Pryce back to add depth to an already deep and solid defensive line and with MLB Al Wilson and Williams covering ground versus the run from sideline-to-sideline, James won't have much room to run even against the Broncos' six-man fronts. However, if the Colts can get into a rhythm via the air and keep the Broncos' front seven on its heels, James will play a critical role with approximately 15 carries on draws, counters and zone runs that catch the Broncos out of position.

Passing: There isn't a defense in the NFL that outmatches the Colts' passing attack from a personnel standpoint. However, the Broncos do match up better than most on this side of the ball. Because of Manning's uncanny ability to recognize the blitz and beat it by making quick, accurate throws to his "hot receivers" underneath, the only feasible way to pressure him is to do so with a four-man rush.

For most defenses that is a problem, but for a Broncos unit that saw 16 different defenders recording at least one sack during the regular season, that shouldn't be a problem. RDE Reggie Hayward finished the season with a team-high 10.5 sacks, but he draws a tough assignment against LOT Tarik Glenn. If Hayward can't get the same type of pressure that this unit has come accustomed to him providing, a lot of the pressure will fall on the shoulders of Pryce, who is still rusty but has the size, strength and athletic ability to overwhelm ROT Ryan Diem on the perimeter.

Bailey, Wilson and Williams are the other three reasons why the Broncos should hold their own better than most defenses in this matchup. Bailey is going to need help from a safety over the top more than half of the game, but his potential to hold up on an island against Harrison will give defensive coordinator Larry Coyer some flexibility in terms of blitzing Manning and throwing some different combo-coverage looks his way.

Wilson and Williams are also athletic enough to keep James and Marcus Pollard in check in man-to-man coverage underneath, which should give the Broncos the numbers they need with five defensive backs covering Harrison, Stokley and Wayne. Manning will need to be patient throughout this game and he'll need a lot of support from his offensive line. He will still have matchups to exploit – such as Reggie Wayne versus RCB Kelly Herndon and Stokley versus rookie nickel CB Roc Alexander, but the big plays might not be as readily available if the Broncos can get away with playing their nickel and dime personnel while rushing only four throughout the game.

Scouts' Edge

Throw last week's game out the window. The Colts have everything going for them in this matchup. They were able to rest their key players last week and were able to mask their offense and defense by playing vanilla schemes, while the Broncos sold out physically and schematically in order to earn a trip to "the dance".

The Colts are not only at home but they also benefit from playing on the fast track of the RCA Dome, which accentuates their speed advantage on both sides of the football. The Broncos do match up better on defense than most of the Colts' opponents this season because of Bailey at left cornerback, their speed at linebacker with Wilson and Williams, and their ability to generate a front-four pass rush. However, with Harrison, Wayne, Stokley, Clark and James spread out horizontally and vertically; Manning still has too many weapons for the Broncos to keep up.

Denver should be able to establish another solid time-consuming rushing attack with Droughns and Bell, but too many mistakes and a lack of efficiency from Plummer will lead to entirely too many opportunities for Manning. Expect a close first half but for the Colts to pull away with this one in the third and fourth quarters.

[BillyBarooooooo]

Vikings vs. Packers


Why To Watch

Everything points to a close game in the familiar rivalry between the Vikings and Packers at Lambeau Field on Sunday afternoon. First off, these teams are very familiar with one another, so they know each other's weaknesses and strengths. Secondly, the margin of victory was just a field goal in both of the regular-season meetings. Thirdly, Green Bay leads the all-time regular-season series 44-42.

However, the Packers clearly have the momentum after beating the Vikings just two weeks ago. In addition, Minnesota has lost 20 of the last 22 games it has played on grass and four of its last five regular-season games. If the Vikings are to turn the tide and get the monumental win at Lambeau Field, they will need a balanced offensive attack and fundamentally sound play on defense. Green Bay will counter with a strong commitment to the running game in the hopes of keeping Minnesota's defensive line on its heels and creating some big-play opportunities in the passing game.

When the Vikings have the ball

Rushing: Minnesota will attack a Green Bay pass defense that has been inconsistent-at-best early and often, but it must keep the Packers honest with the running game. Expect the Vikings to run plenty of three-receiver sets consequently. Spreading the field will put Packers' defensive coordinator Bob Slowik in a bind. He can sub in his nickel package in the hopes of preventing the big play in the passing game, but replacing a linebacker with a corner will hurt the Packers' ability to slow the run.

Daunte Culpepper can check to a pass when he sees a linebacker over the slot receiver and to a run when he sees nickel back Joey Thomas on the field. Stretching the field horizontally will also force Green Bay's defenders to cover more ground when Minnesota runs, and RB Michael Bennett has the speed to take advantage. Bennett explodes around the corner and Green Bay's back seven must take excellent pursuit angles or he will break some long runs.

It doesn't bode well for the Packers that their secondary has missed far too many one field tackles. However, it's important to note that Green Bay head coach Mike Sherman made two moves last week that could improve his run defense. The first was taking RDT Cletidus Hunt out of the starting lineup for not playing at a high enough level. Hunt played well in relief and is expected to start this game but Sherman has made it clear that he expects more from him heading into the postseason.

The second move was resting NT Grady Jackson, who has been hindered by a knee injury that could require offseason surgery and should be a little fresher as well as healthier because of the week off. Jackson has outstanding bulk and his ability to draw double teams will help free both Hunt and MLB Nick Barnett up. Although Barnett has excellent burst and athletic ability, he lacks the bulk to consistently stack and shed blockers at the point of attack. If Jackson and Hunt can control the middle of the line of scrimmage, Barnett won't have to fight though as much traffic when filling his gap.

Passing: Culpepper is coming off the best regular season of his six-year career and has been close-to-impossible to stop when he's gotten into a rhythm. Disrupting his timing and making him uncomfortable in the pocket will be critical to the Packers' success. The good news for Green Bay is the Vikings have surrendered nine sacks over their last two road games.

This statistic suggests that Minnesota's pass protection is having problems staying on the same page in adverse conditions and the noise level at Lambeau Field will be extremely high. The bad news is the Packers failed to record a sack when these two teams met two weeks ago at the Metrodome and Culpepper threw for three touchdowns in that game.

Slowik doesn't want to leave his corners on islands and vulnerable to getting beat deep by regularly blitzing, but he can't drop seven men into coverage unless his front four consistently gets to Culpepper. As a result, expect Slowik to rush four men and run plenty of line stunts early. He may also line RDE Kabeer Gbaja-Biamila up on the left side at times. Gbaja-Biamila has the explosive first step to shoot the inside gap and the speed to turn the corner working against ROT Adam Goldberg, who has struggled when asked to hold up on an island.

In the event the defensive line isn't getting to Culpepper, Slowik will have to blitz more and should run some cover-1 when he does. FS Darren Sharper will generally be responsible for roaming the middle of the field and giving both corners help over the top when Slowik goes to the cover-1. Sharper possesses good range and using just one safety to provide help rather than two will free Slowik up to blitz a linebacker or SS Mark Roman, who has 3.5 sacks.

When the Packers have the ball
Rushing: The Vikings' run defense is giving up an average of 4.6 yards per carry and Green Bay will try to take advantage by giving RB Ahman Green 25-plus carries. Showing that kind of commitment to the running game should allow the Packers to control the clock and effectively limit Culpepper's opportunities to put points on the board. This will put pressure on defensive coordinator Ted Cottrell to move an eighth defender into the box.

The problem for Cottrell is SS Corey Chavous is out after fracturing an elbow last week. Backup Willie Offord is aggressive and has the size to line up near the line, but he is vulnerable to play-action and takes too long to shed blocks. If he bites on a play fake when Green Bay takes a chance downfield off play-action or gets caught up in traffic when the Packers run, Minnesota will be in danger of giving up a big play.

The biggest challenge for Green Bay will be neutralizing UT Kevin Williams. Williams has been dominant at the point of attack at times and is capable of consistently disrupting plays in the backfield. Green Bay can help its interior offensive line and keep Williams off balance in two ways. The first is running some draws and delayed handoffs up the middle. Williams can be overaggressive and will create a seam for Green when he gets caught too far upfield. The second way is to pull the front-side guard around the play-side corner and use the tackle to block down on Williams when Green runs outside.

This will create a quality blocking angle for the tackle and make it harder for Williams to work his way outside. QB Brett Favre can also help by using some hard counts that make it difficult for the explosive Williams to anticipate the snap.

Passing: The loss of No. 3 WR Robert Ferguson to a head and neck injury that could keep him out of the playoffs has weakened the Packers' depth at receiver and their ability to spread the field. However, a rib injury that could keep nickel back Terrance Shaw out of this game is still significant. Shaw had been lining up on the outside on first and second downs because CB Antoine Winfield's mobility has been restricted by a high-ankle sprain.

Now Winfield will likely have to play more and there is reason to be concerned about his ability to hold up on an island. It's also important to note that Ferguson's injury has resulted in Green Bay running more two-tight end sets and it frequently lines backup offensive tackle Kevin Barry as the No. 2 tight end. Barry is a better pass blocker than most tight ends and keeping him in to help out in protection should help give Favre enough time to go through his reads and find the open man.

With that in mind and the Vikings' secondary banged up, don't be surprised to see the Packers take some early shots downfield. Stretching Minnesota's defense vertically will make Cottrell that much more hesitant to walk Offord up to the line, which will help open up the running game as well as the short-to-intermediate passing game. It could also produce an early lead that puts pressure the Vikings to become a one-dimensional passing attack in an effort to come back.

Scouts' Edge

Green Bay appears to have the advantage on paper, as it has already beaten Minnesota twice this year, and the Vikings have really struggled on natural playing surfaces. The inability of the Vikings to stop the run and force Favre, who can try to do too much when the Packers become a one-dimensional passing attack, doesn't bode well for Minnesota fans either.

However, games aren't played on paper and Green Bay must be careful not to underestimate the Vikings. Culpepper and Co. kept up with the Packers in both of regular-season games and they could make the momentum-shifting play that gives them the win this time around.