Scottdiddy Friday picks

[scottdiddy]

Still waiting on a few lines, here's what I have for tomorrow so far...

Toronto (-5.5) over Milwaukee - 6-0
Charlotte (+11) over Orlando - 7-0
Boston (PK) over Detroit - 5-2
Atlanta (+9.5) over Sacramento - 7-2
Memphis (-11) over New Orleans - 10-0
Chicago (-5) over Utah - 10-0
Houston (+3) over LA Lakers - 9-0

Milwaukee/Toronto Over 202 - 10-0
Charlotte/Orlando Over 200.5 - 3-0
Detroit/Boston Under 189 - 6-4
Sacramento/Atlanta Under 200 - 5-2
New Orleans/Memphis Under 181.5 - 7-2
Utah/Chicago Under 182 - 8-1
Houston/LA Lakers Under 191 - 5-3

I'm going to take a few minutes before bed. Debating playing all sides tomorrow and letting the law of averages do its work. System has been red hot lately I'm probably due for a down day, but I figure even a 6-4 day is nice and profitable and the system has been hitting at over 80% the past few days, maybe try and ride this out while its doing well. Let you all know my decisions in the AM and also hopefully get the plays for the last few games finished.

BOL to everyone!! :thumbs:

[xlilsp1keyx]

hey scott, well yea i like toronto and bulls..
i wanted to play the lakers, but i see the system play at 9-0... so iuno now.. im planning to play big tomorrow so hopefully you'll come through..

well ne waz, im just wonder how the system play works?

[The War Dogs]

Good luck Scott!

[bombica]

Only play so far (from 7 games with lines open) that I like is

Toronto -5.5

What do you others think about this play ?

[xlilsp1keyx]

hey how about the rest of the games?


what are your plays?

[scottdiddy]

Here's the rest of them:

Golden State (+7) over New Jersey - 10-0
Philly (+9) over Minnesota - 10-0
Miami (-7) over Portland - 4-1

Golden State/New Jersey Under 189 - 10-0
Philly/Minnesota Over 198.5 - 6-2
Miami/Portland Over 192 - 10-0

I decided to play all the side plays and pray tonight. If Beerman says its ok to do that, like he has in the past, then I'll trust him. 2 units on each game. I'll be happy with a 6-4 night at this point.

My "best" plays according to the system, and games I'd be picking if I were picking individual games, are Memphis -11 (some system plays have them beating the Hornets by as much as 25 points!) and Philly +9 (might be at the end of a long, long road trip but they are keeping the games close, 9 points is a ton and Minnesota has been ATS death this season. Also I like Chicago, Utah hasnt played well in a long time.

My game I'd be most tentative about playing is Miami. Patterson, Miles, Abdur-Rahim all questionable for tonight, hard to say who is going to be playing and depending on who does, it will affect the math. This game was very close and whoever plays could swing the pendelum in favour of Portland.

There ya have it... so this is the real test tonight. Can the system win for me? We'll find out!! BOL to everyone!!

[Trace]

Good luck tonight :thumbs:

[BIGBALLER]

Scotty tailing all the plays tonight. Gotta believe these total plays will start covering bro. Love the system have won some big $$$ keep them coming.:beer2:

[scottdiddy]

Thanks guys!! Just remember that this system is less than 2 weeks old still.. a lot of time is still needed to prove it right or wrong. At the same time, I've cost myself a lot of money by NOT trusting it this week while its been red hot. I'm taking that leap of faith tonight.. which almost guarantees it'll fail LOL.

All that said, the one thing I'm liking is how it is picking a lot of upsets I never would have seen coming. Memphis over Detroit last night being a great example. 5.5 points for Detroit seemed like a no brainer to me until I ran the numbers, and they all pointed towards Memphis. I also thought the Spurs giving up 10 the Pacers last night seemed way too high at first glance, until I saw numbers coming up saying Spurs by 13-18 points and they win by 13.

Before, I was basing picks on general knowledge and trends. Thing is, the linesmakers KNOW who we like... teams like the Suns, Heat, etc. who win consistently. Now, its basically all based on math. Numbers dont lie, and they take the emotional part out of the guessing. Will it always be right? Of course not! If I can get this system to accurarately pick at 60%, I'll be ecstatic. I still have a ton of work to do on totals. This system is nowhere close to complete. But I'm seeing that math is definitely the way to go, rather than basing games on trends, averages, general knowledge, flipping a coin, etc. I encourage everyone to use a system based on math now. But will everyone? Of course not... some guys can just look at the games and KNOW who covers a good percentage of the time. In NFL this season, I used no math and picked around 60% on ALL games (still have to calculate my exact %). I had only 3 losing weeks using this method. Do I know how I did it? Nope. Would I recommend anyone else doing it? Nope. It worked for me and I rode it, but I'll definitely look into something more concrete with numbers for next season.

Anyways, I've ranted enough... BOL to everyone tonight!! :thumbs:

[Superskins]

Best of Luck tonight Scott!:thumbs:

[BillyBarooooooo]

Is this your record for this week?

NBA Sides: 6-3 (+5.4 units)
NBA Totals: 0-5 (-11.0 units)


Do you keep a year to date and if you do what it is. I just stumbled across your thread and it looks pretty interesting.
I would just like to know how it has faired so far, and with all the games you play (Like myself) a 6-3 record looks a little low!


Thanks

BB

[gcvol]

Scott,

I read AI is doubtful to play tnight, so that might affect the Philly pick. Also I think Abdur-Rahim and Darius Miles are not playing for Portland tonight, which I think gives Miami a big edge, Appreciate all your work and the info. Good luck!

[Trace]

Enjoy the Snow..:thumbs:

[Drigger]

Yikes,

Your system has 10-0 for Portland/Maimi Over.
I picked under 196.5, got a higher line so I picked under.

But I love that GS/NJ Under. I have 193.5 NJ just can't score period!

:thumbs:

[Stifler's Mom]

Yea, I like the 10-0 for your system with GS over NJ. What the hell has NJ done to be a 7 pt favorite over anyone :dunno:

Maybe it's some kind of set up, but I guess the line has to be that high with the Nets getting Kidd back and adding Carter, the public probably thinks they are some kind of super team now i guess...

[scottdiddy]

Thanks guys,

I know about all the injuries and everything. My system takes those into account before coming up with a play. Star players' absences for one game (i.e Iverson tonight) usually dont make a big difference and I give them little weight. Forget where on this board yesterday somebody brought up the percentages of teams who were without a key player, and for the first game they usually cover about 75% of the time because the line overadjusts as people hammer the other side. Also, a lot of these systems plays are made the the night before games are played, and things can change from when the plays are generated.

Billy, tonight is my first night playing every side system play, the 6-3 record is only for games played this week. Record to date for the system plays (been keeping track since last Monday) is 45-28 on sides (61.6%), 33-40 on totals (45.2%).

Hoping the sides results are a sign of things to come and not a streak, but at the same time hoping that the totals results are simply on a bad streak. 73 games is not a good enough sample size to know if these are true indications of a good system or not. After another month, I should have a better indication. By then I'll have about 300 games to judge by, so at least I'll know if I'm heading in the right direction.

Trace, I moved from Edmonton a few months back hoping to get away from the snow... Its just dumping today! Just walked down to the London Drugs a few blocks away and it took twice as long as usual, stumbling through the sidewalks that of course nobody has shoveled.. I dont know if anybody around here actually OWNS a shovel!!

BOL with your plays!! :thumbs:

[A Dick 'Ted]

Best of luck to ya tonite Scotty

Take em for a ride :drive:

[no tail]

BOL tonight Scotty.. I took 6 of your 10 - 0 and put in a NCAAB game for a 7 team parlay...:thumbs:

[scottdiddy]

Wouldnt you know it, the moment I put some trust in this system... 4-6 night.. down 5.2 units in the NBA :bang:

The bright side.. 1) I followed Flyers Fan in College Hoops and won 4 units. 2) System totals plays finally showed some signs of life, going 7-3. Seems whenever they do good though, the side plays dont do as well for whatever reason. Never had a night where they both hit big together, or lose big together for that reason. 3) This has been the worst night the side system plays have ever had. The worst before tonight was a couple 2-3 nights. If this is as bad as it ever gets, I can live with that..

Anyways, off to calculate some plays for tomorrow... BOL to everyone tomorrow!! :thumbs:

[Trace]

Good luck tommorow..
:thumbs: