season almost over... gotta make it good...

[HOMEDAWG]

join in... everone...


I like the JETS..



U come in here, then give some feedback.... thank you in advance..:beer2:


pick away..... I will not hold it against you...

[CastorTroy]

Hey DAWG I really like the over in the San Diego Indy game 56 should be a easy number for these 2 teams to hit, and I really see a lot of value on the Browns ML +275 I think they can upset the Dolphins. Now about the Jets game that line is to close for me plus the Patriots are going to be out to show everyone that they are better than the team that they were on monday night, I feel they will be pissed and take it out on the jets, I do like the under on that game though I see a 17-14 New England win. That game will be a no play for me unless I take the under.


Bol Bro:thumbs:

[shamrock317]

I like the JETS too ~ but I'm a Jet fan and that's going with my heart.

If they plan on winning... Hackett is going to need to find some balls and have Pennington throw.

Pennington has a lot at stake this game... needs to prove the media wrong.

But the Pats are bound to have a rebound week after losing to the fish.

~ cait ~

[ToP]

SF +11.5, ya gotta know I love those dogs:prtytme:

[HOMEDAWG]

Originally posted by CastorTroy
Hey DAWG I really like the over in the San Diego Indy game 56 should be a easy number for these 2 teams to hit, and I really see a lot of value on the Browns ML +275 I think they can upset the Dolphins.


I will screen all these posts... ya know... so be serious... 1 for the forum... thank you in advance... you may change your pick at any time... :yeah:

[HOMEDAWG]

Originally posted by Tired of Paying
SF +11.5, ya gotta know I love those dogs:prtytme:

TOP, be serious now!!!

[CastorTroy]

Originally posted by HOMEDAWG
I will screen all these posts... ya know... so be serious... 1 for the forum... thank you in advance... you may change your pick at any time... :yeah:


Hey Dawg I am being serious those 2 games are the games I see the most value in. I also gave my opinion on the jets game did not mean to sound not serious.

[HOMEDAWG]

Originally posted by shamrock317
I like the JETS too ~ but I'm a Jet fan and that's going with my heart.

If they plan on winning... Hackett is going to need to find some balls and have Pennington throw.

Pennington has a lot at stake this game... needs to prove the media wrong.

But the Pats are bound to have a rebound week after losing to the fish.

~ cait ~


But seriously, can this be the pick to get BP his 'NEW PAIR OF SHOES'?

[ToP]

Originally posted by HOMEDAWG
TOP, be serious now!!!

Man I'm in on SF, I could care less if Dennis Erickson called me personally and told me he was playing SCABS tommorrow. SF for me, Biatch:prtytme:

I may have 1 or 2 more also, can I post them here????????


Hell, why do I need a thread?????????? LMAO

[HOMEDAWG]

Pump, grind, get to the numbers, give me 10 pushups, get to the core!!!!!!!!!!!! pick me a winna>>>>:yeah: BP, your not goin' anywhere, as everyone will pull together for ya!!!:thumbs:

[ToP]

Homedawg, since ypu are the festivities manager, how bout coming out of the closet and letting us see your name at the top:thumbs:

[HOMEDAWG]

Originally posted by Tired of Paying
Man I'm in on SF, I could care less if Dennis Erickson called me personally and told me he was playing SCABS tommorrow. SF for me, Biatch:prtytme:

I may have 1 or 2 more also, can I post them here????????


Hell, why do I need a thread?????????? LMAO


We gonna help out this forum......& BP... dammit!!!!!:yeah:

[CastorTroy]

Check this out San Diego Over Under stats.

The over for this game is 8-2 the last 10 meetings.


The over is 14-5 the last 19 for Indy vs winning teams.


This will probably be my Pick Of The Year.

[HOMEDAWG]

I still don't feel the testosterone.... dammit... give me more!!!:yeah:

[ToP]

Straight Wager NFL [369] BEARS o36-110 Dec-26 13:10
Straight Wager NFL [377] PANTHERS +3-110 Dec-26 16:25
Straight Wager NFL [377] PANTHERS o39-110 Dec-26
Straight Wager NFL [383] BILLS o42-110 Dec-26 16:15
Straight Wager NFL [385] REDSKINS o35½-110 Dec-26
Straight Wager NFL [386] COWBOYS +2-110 Dec-26 16:25 Straight Wager NFL [387] AZ.CARDINALS +7-110 Dec-26 16:25


Some more nookie I'm looking at, loving Ariz., and Dallas over 35.5, Bears over 36, not plays just STRONG leans:thumbs:

[HOMEDAWG]

Add: cleveland... unless someone with good information can fade the forum out of it????

[HOMEDAWG]

Originally posted by Tired of Paying
Straight Wager NFL [369] BEARS o36-110 Dec-26 13:10
Straight Wager NFL [377] PANTHERS +3-110 Dec-26 16:25
Straight Wager NFL [377] PANTHERS o39-110 Dec-26
Straight Wager NFL [383] BILLS o42-110 Dec-26 16:15
Straight Wager NFL [385] REDSKINS o35½-110 Dec-26
Straight Wager NFL [386] COWBOYS +2-110 Dec-26 16:25 Straight Wager NFL [387] AZ.CARDINALS +7-110 Dec-26 16:25


Some more nookie I'm looking at, loving Ariz., and Dallas over 35.5, Bears over 36, not plays just STRONG leans:thumbs:


Top that's all good, but maybe not all play all that, just 1 good solid pick!!!!

[CastorTroy]

Man seriously guys there should be no way that either San diego or Indy can slow down one anothers offense. I posted it as my 10 unit Pick Of the Year that is a lot for me to lay as I have a new one on the way but thats how strong I feel about that game. I expect the total to climb to at least 63-64 by game time.

[HOMEDAWG]

Originally posted by CastorTroy
Man seriously guys there should be no way that either San diego or Indy can slow down one anothers offense. I posted it as my 10 unit Pick Of the Year that is a lot for me to lay as I have a new one on the way but thats how strong I feel about that game.


Need some stats... or it is out!!!dammit..

[ToP]

I put in SF and you laughed, I will watch what I have and post a SOLID play by 12:00 Sunday.............as of now SF is it bro:thumbs:

[CastorTroy]

Originally posted by CastorTroy
Check this out San Diego Over Under stats.

The over for this game is 8-2 the last 10 meetings.


The over is 14-5 the last 19 for Indy vs winning teams.


This will probably be my Pick Of The Year.


Here are the stats DAWG


They average 29 and 33 points a game.

[HOMEDAWG]

Originally posted by Tired of Paying
I put in SF and you laughed, I will watch what I have and post a SOLID play by 12:00 Sunday.............as of now SF is it bro:thumbs:

TOP, I'm not laughing... dammit.. Just want give the best pick for the forum... no bull.....:yeah:

[HOMEDAWG]

Originally posted by CastorTroy
Here are the stats DAWG


They average 29 and 33 points a game.


Sorry, need more than that.... :beer2:

[CastorTroy]

Originally posted by CastorTroy
Check this out San Diego Over Under stats.

The over for this game is 8-2 the last 10 meetings.


The over is 14-5 the last 19 for Indy vs winning teams.


This will probably be my Pick Of The Year.


Look at these solid solid and both teams are better on offense then they have been the last 10 meetings and there defenses suck.

[HOMEDAWG]

I’m not really thrilled about taking either of these teams. Atlanta has clinched the #2 seed in the NFC playoffs and they’re going to give some rest to some of their banged up starters, including quarterback Michael Vick and probably All-Pro TE Alge Crumpler, who leads the team in receiving and averages a terrific 11.0 yards per pass thrown to him. A replacement level tight end averages just 5.6 yards every time a ball is thrown his way, so Crumpler’s absence would equate to almost 1.0 yards per pass play if his replacement is about the same as an average backup tight end. Michael Vick’s absence won’t hurt the passing attack that much, as he’s averaged just 5.7 yards per pass play and an average backup averages 5.2 yppp. I think rookie Matt Schaub will do a very good job in the West Coast offense given the accuracy that he showed in college at Virginia running the same offense, but Vick’s rushing numbers (889 yards at 7.6 ypr) will drop the Falcons ypr number by 0.9 ypr. Overall, the absence of Vick and Crumpler would cause my math model to go from Atlanta by 2 points to New Orleans by 4 ½ points, which is about what the number is. The Falcons apply to a negative 23-60-2 ATS road letdown situation and a 19-46-3 ATS situation that is based on last week’s high scoring win. However, I don’t like the idea of taking the Saints at home after a victory. Under coach Jim Haslett, the Saints are just 14-25-1 ATS at home and only 11-21-1 ATS after a game in which they won and covered the spread. New Orleans is just 1-9 ATS at home following a win over a division foe, so they are certainly due for a bad outing after upsetting the Bucs last week in Tampa. New Orleans would qualify in a very negative 45-115-1 ATS statistical profile indicator if they become a favorite of more than 4 points, so I certainly wouldn’t want to lay more than 4 points with New Orleans, and I certainly don’t want to play Atlanta given the negative situation that

[ToP]

Dawg, I'm not a big fan of stats in the NFL, I am more a fan of lines.....................You can twist stats anyway you want and make a team LOOK like the play, just like tonight, Oakland............no chance of winning, right?? Well, I played them on the ML, mostly due to the fact that they were +330 and was within a nut hair of hitting. The NFL is really hard to pick 1 single game to lay on. I usually hope to have 2 strong plays and could care less if the others hit. Playing Favs. this time of the year is not the thing to do IMO, nor is playing totals unless it is with teams out of contention. Just my 2 cents.:thumbs:

[CastorTroy]

Originally posted by Tired of Paying
Dawg, I'm not a big fan of stats in the NFL, I am more a fan of lines.....................You can twist stats anyway you want and make a team LOOK like the play, just like tonight, Oakland............no chance of winning, right?? Well, I played them on the ML, mostly due to the fact that they were +330 and was within a nut hair of hitting. The NFL is really hard to pick 1 single game to lay on. I usually hope to have 2 strong plays and could care less if the others hit. Playing Favs. this time of the year is not the thing to do IMO, nor is playing totals unless it is with teams out of contention. Just my 2 cents.:thumbs:


Do you like the total of the Indy game.

[HOMEDAWG]

It’s tough to go against either of these teams, as Carolina is 14-2-1 ATS as an underdog while Tampa Bay is 28-6-1 ATS in home games when not favored by more than 4 points. As well as the Panthers have played recently, they are still not quite as good as the Bucs. Tampa Bay is 0.1 yards per play worse than average on offense, averaging 5.4 yppl with Brian Griese at quarterback against teams that combine to allow 5.5 yppl on defense, and the Buccaneers are 0.5 yppl better than average on defense (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that average 5.3 yppl on offense). Carolina is also 0.1 yppl worse than average on of offense (5.3 yppl against teams that allow 5.4 yppl), but the Panthers are a slightly worse 0.2 yppl better than average defensively for the season (0.3 yppl better than average in 11 games that LB Dan Morgan played). The match-up favors Tampa Bay a bit and my math model favors the Buccaneers by 4 ½ points overall. While the team trends are about even, Carolina also applies to a 54-22-5 ATS late-season angle that plays on teams that won 11 or more games last season, but are under .500 currently.


:dunno:

[CastorTroy]

Originally posted by HOMEDAWG
It’s tough to go against either of these teams, as Carolina is 14-2-1 ATS as an underdog while Tampa Bay is 28-6-1 ATS in home games when not favored by more than 4 points. As well as the Panthers have played recently, they are still not quite as good as the Bucs. Tampa Bay is 0.1 yards per play worse than average on offense, averaging 5.4 yppl with Brian Griese at quarterback against teams that combine to allow 5.5 yppl on defense, and the Buccaneers are 0.5 yppl better than average on defense (4.8 yppl allowed to teams that average 5.3 yppl on offense). Carolina is also 0.1 yppl worse than average on of offense (5.3 yppl against teams that allow 5.4 yppl), but the Panthers are a slightly worse 0.2 yppl better than average defensively for the season (0.3 yppl better than average in 11 games that LB Dan Morgan played). The match-up favors Tampa Bay a bit and my math model favors the Buccaneers by 4 ½ points overall. While the team trends are about even, Carolina also applies to a 54-22-5 ATS late-season angle that plays on teams that won 11 or more games last season, but are under .500 currently.


:dunno:


Big advantage though is Carolina needs the win they will probably play all out. :gulp:

[ToP]

Originally posted by CastorTroy
Do you like the total of the Indy game.

Its a no play for me, sorry

[HOMEDAWG]

Originally posted by Tired of Paying
Dawg, I'm not a big fan of stats in the NFL, I am more a fan of lines.....................You can twist stats anyway you want and make a team LOOK like the play, just like tonight, Oakland............no chance of winning, right?? Well, I played them on the ML, mostly due to the fact that they were +330 and was within a nut hair of hitting. The NFL is really hard to pick 1 single game to lay on. I usually hope to have 2 strong plays and could care less if the others hit. Playing Favs. this time of the year is not the thing to do IMO, nor is playing totals unless it is with teams out of contention. Just my 2 cents.:thumbs:


That is what I'm talking about!!!!!:yeah:


all 4 popular picks tonight went down 0-4... why????hmmmm everyone thought indiana in the nba???? why.... we all know...then they thought miami??? we all know... then it was kc... same thing.... and along came tennessee.....its just a 0-4 per the joe public..... I know I havent posted outstanding winners as I only post maybe a few.... but it comes down to, THE BOOKS WILL WIN!... :beer2:

[HOMEDAWG]

Top, this is the serious 1 I asked U for:::


U pick a game, keep an open mind for the 2H.... Just don't let your pick of the game influence your 2H pick...Happens all the time!



:gulp:

[CastorTroy]

I gave you the stats Dawg LOL :thumbs: