GoldenROD
12-17-2004, 11:54 AM
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This winning trio is on the take
By I.M. Bettor
Friday, December 17, 2004
Gamblers know there are three kinds of lies - lies, damn lies and statistics. On the other hand, there's a large subset of NFL gamblers who do nothing but play games according to a systematic formula derived from statistics. Rather than divulge the entire statistical formula of one such system (some things are sacred), let me cut to the Cliffs Notes and tell you that this formula combines certain offensive categories for each team and compares these same categories with their opponent.
Another set of historical statistics shows that from 1999-2003, in Week 15 the ``over'' holds a 44-26-3 advantage over playing the ``under,'' a somewhat surprising number given the unpredictable weather in mid-to-late December. During this same time frame, home 'dogs are 11-6 by the numbers in Week 15 and home favorites show a 36-19-4 spread mark.
Going back to 1994 and counting games played in the first 14 weeks of the 2004 campaign, road favorites of a touchdown or greater are 43-71-3 by the numbers or less than 38 percent in the winning ticket category. This week, Local 22, Pittsburgh and San Diego are each laying a number that would indicate that history's not on their side. But as I wrote last week, these three teams seemingly make their number every week.
As this space heads into the fourth quarter of the 2004 National Football Lottery, the loyalists will find they're holding $280 as a result of a somewhat insignificant 14-13-2 mark by the numbers.
If sunset Margaritas at Las Carmelitas high above charming Puerto Vallarta are to be ours, Week 15 better begin a late-season rush.
The Week 15 card shows an astonishing eight home 'dogs on the board. That's greater than half the card. However, in a season where parity has been less pronounced than in previous years, it's not surprising that given the number of certified clunkers in the league, you'll find the likes of Washington, Buffalo and St. Louis spotting points in their road uniforms.
And because I feel that the above-mentioned three teams epitomize NFL mediocrity, no matter who their opponent and how bad their opponents may be, these lower-middle class outfits shouldn't be spotting points on the road. I know last week I got badly bitten advising a play against the Bills. Maybe I'm stubborn, but the Bills laying 1 1/2 points to a Bengals team that looks like it isn't playing out the string strikes me as a bit ludicrous.
Let's play Cincy grabbing 1 1/2 points for $220.
The Niners are rotten. But they're still an NFL outfit and really not that much worse off than the Redskins, led by the bumbling and stumbling Patrick Ramsey.
Like Buffalo, I don't think Washington should be spotting points as visitors. The woeful Niners taking 5 points will be another $220 play.
I'm sure you can guess the next play. The Rams used to be good even with Mike Martz as their coach. A true shadow of their former selves, to my eye, the Rams aren't worthy of road favordom. Well, maybe against Arizona they are. But I'm sticking to principle here and making a play on the homestanding Cardinals grabbing 3 points for $220.
This winning trio is on the take
By I.M. Bettor
Friday, December 17, 2004
Gamblers know there are three kinds of lies - lies, damn lies and statistics. On the other hand, there's a large subset of NFL gamblers who do nothing but play games according to a systematic formula derived from statistics. Rather than divulge the entire statistical formula of one such system (some things are sacred), let me cut to the Cliffs Notes and tell you that this formula combines certain offensive categories for each team and compares these same categories with their opponent.
Another set of historical statistics shows that from 1999-2003, in Week 15 the ``over'' holds a 44-26-3 advantage over playing the ``under,'' a somewhat surprising number given the unpredictable weather in mid-to-late December. During this same time frame, home 'dogs are 11-6 by the numbers in Week 15 and home favorites show a 36-19-4 spread mark.
Going back to 1994 and counting games played in the first 14 weeks of the 2004 campaign, road favorites of a touchdown or greater are 43-71-3 by the numbers or less than 38 percent in the winning ticket category. This week, Local 22, Pittsburgh and San Diego are each laying a number that would indicate that history's not on their side. But as I wrote last week, these three teams seemingly make their number every week.
As this space heads into the fourth quarter of the 2004 National Football Lottery, the loyalists will find they're holding $280 as a result of a somewhat insignificant 14-13-2 mark by the numbers.
If sunset Margaritas at Las Carmelitas high above charming Puerto Vallarta are to be ours, Week 15 better begin a late-season rush.
The Week 15 card shows an astonishing eight home 'dogs on the board. That's greater than half the card. However, in a season where parity has been less pronounced than in previous years, it's not surprising that given the number of certified clunkers in the league, you'll find the likes of Washington, Buffalo and St. Louis spotting points in their road uniforms.
And because I feel that the above-mentioned three teams epitomize NFL mediocrity, no matter who their opponent and how bad their opponents may be, these lower-middle class outfits shouldn't be spotting points on the road. I know last week I got badly bitten advising a play against the Bills. Maybe I'm stubborn, but the Bills laying 1 1/2 points to a Bengals team that looks like it isn't playing out the string strikes me as a bit ludicrous.
Let's play Cincy grabbing 1 1/2 points for $220.
The Niners are rotten. But they're still an NFL outfit and really not that much worse off than the Redskins, led by the bumbling and stumbling Patrick Ramsey.
Like Buffalo, I don't think Washington should be spotting points as visitors. The woeful Niners taking 5 points will be another $220 play.
I'm sure you can guess the next play. The Rams used to be good even with Mike Martz as their coach. A true shadow of their former selves, to my eye, the Rams aren't worthy of road favordom. Well, maybe against Arizona they are. But I'm sticking to principle here and making a play on the homestanding Cardinals grabbing 3 points for $220.