early wednesday plays

[AbleGeorge]

Amazing how close these games are coming to the lines, goshdarn those guys are good linesmakers!

Anyways, I make no claims nor deliver no locks on this my 2nd post, I will state that I use a program which uses editable formulas, 3 of which are based on various lengths of past performances, one is season to date, one is balanced averages of 10 games, meaning based on not the team's last 10 games, but rather the team's last 10 home and road games, which helps balances out recent performance with extended road or home stands...

Of course, when its in the past, formulas can do great, but while it started well yesterday, it doesn't matter, what matters is there are 2 plays for tomorrow, Detroit -8.5 over Toronto, and Cleveland -7 over Chicago.. The program DOES consider road trips in case anyone wondered if the program is going to pick tired teams all the time..

Enough about ME, best of luck to YOU.
Those are the 2 early ones, will have more for tomorrow, tomorrow.
What I like on what little I have seen here is that there are good reasonable rules to the forum, and picks with REASONS given. Wish I could give the reason other than the formula SAID so :prtytme:

[bookiekilla]

:welcome:

[Ghost]

Welcome AbleGeorge!

Glad to see your post. The line makers are really good, I can't see how they can be so efficient at setting the lines and we can't be more efficient a hammering the line.

Some systems work and most don't, but the line makers have a system for setting the line, has anyone seen that in action and if so couldn't we reverse engineer it to better beat the system.

Why isn't a 80% or better system possible?

Can someone tell me why. Is it the variables that are unknown that influence the game beyond our ability to predict? Then how does the Line Makers know where the winning side is going to be?

I've been watching these guys for 2 months and found some really good cappers. They impress me everyday with there knowledge of the games.

Anyway, this is just food for thought. Thanks again! Ghost

[scottdiddy]

Ghost,

I think you hit the nail on the head, the variables in some cases are too difficult to predict. Remember that we are predicting human behavior for a small group of people over a short period of time. If you've taken any statistics, you'll know that any "outliers' (abnormal samples) have a huge effect when there is a small sample size.

In one game, there are so many things that can affect the outcome ever so much. A blown call, a dropped pass, missed free throw, turnover, errors in baseball all can change the outcome of a game from a win to a loss or vice versa. Most of these are impossible to handicap. Plus you've just got the human element. Nobody knows for sure how a given team will play on a given day. We can base handicapping on their "average" day, but we have no idea which side of that average they will produce on.

I read an article once stating that a handicapper believed about 60% of games were decided by a single play in the form of errors, blown calls, etc. and that choosing correctly on these games was tantamount to flipping a coin. So out of 100 games, 60% are decided by chance and you'll get 30 of those correct. Out of the remaning 40 games, you need to pick 75% of those correctly (30 winners out of 40) just to achieve an overall score of 60% winners. And picking 75% of games, as we all know, is extremely difficult for even the best cappers.

And thats why even the best systems have their limitations, because it is extremely difficult to guess how humans will react in one game.

[rjp]

First, the line isn't set to the TRUE odds, it's set to divide the money. The final outcome coming close to what the line was set at is merely coincidence.

Pick up an even basic book on probability and you'll begin to understand. :thumbs:

[AbleGeorge]

Also,
I think 80% is not likely over any extended period of time, because what works at one time in the season may not work in another part. Also, if you can hit 55-58%, you will do just fine.
Consider that if you have 100 plays over a period of time and hit 70%, but if you allow more error which brings it down to 60% but then get 300 plays, you make MORE MONEY on the 300 play system. So, while the percentage you hit at is IMPORTANT, it is only HALF the picture..
70% 100 plays nets you 37 units 70-30-3vig
60% 300 play nets you 48 units... 180-120-12vig
So, more plays to post shortly..
In the meantime, :prtytme:

[scottdiddy]

George,

Obviously the more money you play you would be doing better at lower percentages given the same number of games. Its not about the amount of money made though, its about the percentages. I could start playing 10 unit plays every game and hoping to hit only 54% but money management dictates I'd be broke fairly fast using that strategy. Money management is the most important facet of what we do, not picking winners.

[AbleGeorge]

Consensus Sides: Formula Group 1: sides
Minn -5.0 at Phil
Minn (1-0)

Denv +4.5 at Wash
Denv (1-0)

Trnt +8.5 at Detr
Detr (2-0)

Memp -6.0 at Atl
Memp (1-0)

NY -5.5 at NewOrl
NY (1-0)

Clev -7.0 at Chic
Clev (2-0)

Seat +10.0 at SAnt
Seat (1-0)

Totals
Seat at SAnt 185.5 Over (2-0)
Phoe at LALk 209.0 Under (3-0)

Sides that say 1-0 hitting over 70% this year, those that say 2-0 are at 80%..
Totals that say 2-0 are 38-9 this year, ones that say 3-0 are 30-5..
The numbers represent the number of formulas that make that pick with no disagreement from the others. Of course, I am just reporting what the program tells me, I am not making any claims of anything...
GOOD LUCK
Thanks :prtytme:

I wanted to add a THANKS for the WELCOME as well, just 2nd day in this forum... but a long time looz... er I mean HANDICAPPER
:cool:

I wanted to be clearer here, the first line is just the line on the game, the 2nd line that mentions one team that says (1-0) or (2-0) is that actual pick, it so happens Detroit is the only home team pick tonight, so its easy to get confused on what is being shown..
Just wanted to be clear is all
thanks

[AbleGeorge]

"George,

Obviously the more money you play you would be doing better at lower percentages given the same number of games. Its not about the amount of money made though, its about the percentages. I could start playing 10 unit plays every game and hoping to hit only 54% but money management dictates I'd be broke fairly fast using that strategy. Money management is the most important facet of what we do, not picking winners."

Scott,
I agree with you 100% in the sense that money management is THE achilles heel of most cappers.. it was one facet I forgot to talk about in all this, but that was just an oversight, not because I was unaware
Having said that, most people play WAY too much per play based on the bankroll because of losing streaks which are inevitable to the best of us. I will say though that playing one play a day that you expect to hit 70% of the time and say you play 5 units. You are better off playing 5 plays at 55% at ONE unit. While you are risking the same amount in a day, the fact is that the one play has all 5 units tied up in it, and the variability will do you in.
To be clearer, the more plays you do, the closer you get to your winning percentage. If you play 10 times at an expected percentage of 70%, you have a much HIGHER chance of losing than 100 plays at 55%. And of course, bringing your units per play down so that you are not risking any more per day in the higher volume, lower percentage system.. Since I am starting to bore MYSELF on this subject, I can only hope some of you still are conscious as I end this post and wish all success in whatever way works best for YOU!.

[AbleGeorge]

6-2 with that total left. Interesting that the "higher" percentage plays have been the 2 losers, but it shows that flat-betting is always the way to go as far as I am concerned. OF course, after tonight, I am slightly more convinced. Now with the Lakers total being the "higher" percentage play, might be the kiss of death!

First quarter shows a 208 pace on a 209 line, but I am on the east coast and can't retire just yet, so with a winning nite in the bank, have a great night everybody
:prtytme:

[Superskins]

Welcome and Congrats George!