The mysterious 5.5 line

[Stifler's Mom]

2 games today that opened at 5.5 and have since moved, and one that moved from 6 to 5.5

RJP...if you read this, let me know if i got this straight bro :thumbs:

Chicago/LA Lakers - Lakers opened at -5.5 and are now -6. 88% of the public on the Lakers. Play would be Chicago +6

Milwaukee/Boston - Boston opened at -5.5 and is now -6.5. 54% of the public on Boston. Play would be Milwaukee +6.5, although this one is really close to even as far as public opinion goes.

Orlando/Toronto - Orlando opened at -6 and has moved to -5.5. 54% of the public on Orlando. Play would be Toronto +5.5, again though, public opinion really close to even on this one.

[skinsfan45]

yea i was looking at those 3 games too...but i only feel comfortable with betting the chicago game...hopefully they'll show up at home 2nite

[Blue Heels]

Lakers still overated....

Bucks will be without Smith and Santiago, so they may get a lillte tired in the second half playing back to back.


Good Luck!

[Stifler's Mom]

I basically want to keep track of how these things do, not necessarily bet em all...at least not until it shows 60% or better.

Last night the Hawks covered +5.5 vs the Knicks, and the previous night the Celtics destroyed Orlando as a +5.5 dog, with the public being on the losing side of each game.

So 2-0 this week, and I think I'll continue to keep track from here on and see how it does.

Agreed that the Lakers are overrated. Bulls not exactly anything to get excited about either though, lol

[skyz]

i would take boston in this one....gl to you....:yeah:
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[rjp]

Stif, when a game has pretty even action on each side then it really doesn't mean much. Key is to find lopsided action. MOST of the time the DOG wins outright... especially away DOGs. I don't track this religiously but damned if it doesn't hit most of the time.

Key is what happens when it moves off of 5.5. For example: after the shift to -6 and subsequently 6.5 more and more action was on Milwaukee. I'd be VERY wary of taking Milwaukee in this case, as more action was on Milwaukee once the line shifted.

Let's look at Toronto/Orlando. Line moved from -6 to -5.5. Earlier there was more play on Toronto which is why the line moved, I believe. After the move there was more action on Orlando. You'd want to take Toronto in this case, but the action isn't too lopsided.

Look at LA/Chicago. The line moved from 5.5 all the way to 6.5 and thus more action was on Chicago. Doesn't look good for the Bulls. They could get blown out big!

So let's recap: if the line stays at 5.5 or moves down to either 5 or up to 6 then go against the play after the line shift, or go against the majority if it sticks at 5.5. (See Atlanta last night.) If the line continues to move causing more action on the side without much action, I'd either ride with the majority or watch and eat some popcorn. lol

:thumbs:

[rjp]

BTW, I base this on sports insights numbers/line moves if anyone is wondering.

wagertrash is a good place to see a general consensus, but unless you have nothing else to do all day then you can't really see what the action is like after the line moves. besides, their line moves are typically weird.

[Stifler's Mom]

I was thinking the same. Toronto/Orlando and Boston/Milwaukee shouldn't count cause of the basically even action. A few percentage points either way means nada to the books I'm sure.

Interesting with the Lakers/Bulls though. I was leaning towards LA at -6, but then I looked at the opening lines and the eerie -5.5 popped up, lol, so I thought well, maybe Chicago is the play, so no play for me....but now from what you're explaining, I should probably stick with my original play of LAL?

I tried to figure this 5.5 line stuff out last year and just got more confused. I'll get it straight one of these days, lol. Thanks for the explanation :thumbs:

[rjp]

Yeah, I wouldn't touch CHI with a 10 foot pole, unless the line moves back to 5.5.

I might make a play on the Toronto ML at another book. When I took Orlando earlier I saw a majority was on Toronto, so I said fuck it. Now there's a good majority on Orlando after the line moved to 5.5. Calls for an ML play!!

[Stifler's Mom]

Well, i now noticed that the line moves have brought the action in on Orlando and Milwaukee.

I'm thinking Toronto +5.5 may still be the right play, but Boston -6.5 may be the play in that one now...

Will watch a little more and make a final decision on who to play or just pass in a little bit.

[rjp]

TOR/ORL was horseshit. Stayed at 5.5, but pretty even.

[rjp]

Orlando is kicking their ASS! lmao

[rjp]

You would have gone 2-1 Stif! I'm just always weary of a move OFF of 5.5 causing more action on one side!!

[Personafied]

Damn i thought chicago was the right call, i told my friend at work about the 5.5 rule, to go with underdog. He looked at me like ii had three eyes.

[rjp]

Stif, 5.5 lines went 3-0 in CBB yesterday. 1 of the DOGs won outright. Check out Nebraska tonight. :thumbs: