JoePa's Card for 11/29 - 12/4

[joepa66]

Here are the Early Leans for this week along with my updated totals!

Early Leans for 11/29- 12/4
ALL 12 scheduled games posted

RICE -3 vs. LATech
ARMY +13.5 @ Navy
AUBURN -13 vs. Tennessee
CAL -21 @ So. Miss
USC -19 @ UCLA
HAWAII +7 vs. Michigan State
TULANE +30.5 vs. Louisville
PITT -7 vs. So. Florida
OKLAHOMA -22.5 vs. Colorado
MIAMI, OH +1.5 vs. Toledo
VATech +6 vs. Miami, FL

UPDATED YTD TOTALS
Early Leans 66-50-1 (4-7 last week)
JoePa's 38-35-1 (1-7 last week)
Two-Team Teasers 8-4 (no action)

GL to everyone....this is our swan song before bowl season begins and my 1000th post!

:cheers:

[acefrehley24]

Congrats on the 1,000th! Just passed that mark myself...


Like Rice tonight!!


:thumbs:

[saidzeppelin]

JP66,

Big Nittany Lion salute to your bad self on your 1K post.. Your a good man and you come strong week after week with great info.. BOL this week my friend, thanks for all your hard work!!!:yeah:

[ToP]

BOL Bro:thumbs:

[joepa66]

Louisiana Tech +3 @ Rice

Rice leads the league in rushing at 311ypg and LaTech is ranked 71st against the run. Rice is 3-7 overall and 6-4 ATS and 3-1 ATS @ home while LaTech is 5-6 overall, 4-7 ATS and just 1-5 ATS on the road. As a dog in November the Bulldogs are 2-8 ATS while the Owls are 9-1 as a home favorite in the month of November. In the last three meetings head to head Rice is 3-0 ATS and has averaged 380ypg, 537 total yards, and 41ppg vs. LaTech, while the Bulldogs have only averaged 25ppg in the series. Rice is not a bad team and in their last two outings, although they lost to UTEP and Fresno State, they actually outstatted both the Miners and the Bulldogs and by large yardage margins....409-274 vs. Utep and 443-310 vs. Fresno. Going with the home fav in this matchup...it ought to be a rout!

PICK: Rice Owls -3 vs. LaTech Bulldogs Can you say Big-Time LOSER!!!

[Big Pimpin]

Congrats on 1000 and tailing ya tonight....didn't even know it was on

[BoKnows]

GL JP lets win this one!!

[joepa66]

Damn...that was worse than OUCH! A 92 yard interception return for TD, 3 turnovers and they had basically the same yardage for the game.....:bang: what a way to start the cfb week....come from behind I guess....

[bigbag12]

aye game really blew..la tech is horrible...totally unbelievable

[golotb]

Like some of the leans Joe Pa:cool:

[joepa66]

Thanks ACE, Said, ToP, BP....shooting for 1500....:thumbs: no where to go but UP!

BigBag...man they torched the Owls and things got ugly real fast....

With ya Go....always like to be on the same side as my bro's...

Really looking at Army, Auburn, Colorado, the Bows, Canes and Miami, OH right now....writeups later in the week....have some research to do....
:thumbs:

[joepa66]

THE MAC DADDY CHAMPIONSHIP



Miami, OH Redhawks -1.5 vs. Toledo Rockets

Both come into this game at 8-3 overall while Toledo has the better ATS record at 7-4 and Miami is 5-5. But look inside those ATS number for Miami...they were only 13.5 dogs at Ann Arbor in their opener and lost 43-10, then were 3.5 point dogs at UCinn and lost by 19 after getting smacked around by the Wolverines the week before, then had to go to Marshall where they were 7 point dogs and lost by 8 (it's a huge rivalry), they were 21.5 point favs @ Buffalo and won by 18 even though they had over 500 yards and held Buffalo to 160 and were in the middle of a season filled with Ohio U, Kent, Central Florida and Buffalo BEFORE playing UT the first time around --- hardly teams that would keep your interest, and they were 21.5 favs @ Western Michigan and they won by 21.
I took a look at the history of this matchup over the last 5 meetings and Miami is 4-1-0ATS vs. UT. The last meeting was won by the Redhawks in Oxford 23-16 and they forced 4 UT turnovers. In the series the average score is Miami 26.6 UT 17, and the average yardage is a 446 to 357 advantage to the Miami with most of their yardage coming in passing and UT's coming via the run.....and Miami is ranked 11th in passing at 281ypg and Josh Betts tossed for 295 the first time they met.....UT is ranked 115th vs. the pass.....UT's O is better at the pass also ranked 6th at 311ypg but Miami's D is ranked 69th vs. the pass allowing just over 200ypg. UT may try to establish the run again as in the last meeting and average 166ypg rushing, but Miami's D is ranked 12th at just 102ypg.
For the Redhawks to be successful they must keep Gradkowski in the pocket and not allow him to beat them on the edge with his running and throwing. I'm going with history on the game....sometimes a team just cannot get over the hump in beating another...also, Miami has had a almost two weeks to heal and repair since their ESPN clash with Akron two weeks ago.....and this morning I saw that Xerri was on my side, now that's a positive thing.....UT had a very very emotional game last week in a titantic comeback win, it'll be interesting to see if they have anything left.


PICK: Miami, OH -1.5 vs. Toledo Looza

Get it at Bodog...it's still -1.5 if you like the Redhawks!

[joepa66]

Army Cadets +13.5 vs. Navy Midshipmen

A historic matchup that finds Navy owning an 8-2 overall record and 4-4 ATS vs. their arch service academy rival Army who is 2-8 and 5-5 ATS. Navy is third overall in rushing at 290ypg going against the 115th ranked run D of the Cadets allowing 243ypg. But don't expect the middies to pass, they are ranked 116th at 97ypg. Meanwhile, Army is ranked 65th in passing with 209ypg and the Midshipmen D allows 203ypg thru the air, and the Cadets are ranked 32nd in rushing at 179ypg so they can strike a balance on the offensive side of the ball.
A much improved Bobby Ross led Army team has also fared better vs. common opponents this season: Army lost @ Tulane 45-31 while Navy got bombed @ Tulane 42-10; while Army lost vs. Air Force 31-22, they actually outstatted the Falcons with 435-419 yards but had two costy turnovers, one on the one yard line, and although Navy beat Air Force 24-21 they were outgained 415-321! So Army can move the ball and they can score. Since winning two in a row in the middle of the season over UCinn and So. Florida, the Cadets have lost four in a row, but outgained two of those teams and gave the ball up 5 times in two of those games, but in the last two are +1 in turnovers and outgained two of the four teams they played only losing in stats to 2 passing teams, @ Tulane and ECU, while in their last four games Navy has lost to Tulane and won vs. Rutgers...wow...Division IAA Delaware, and Rice....they don't have a quality win to speak of this season beating only Vandy, Tulsa, Northeastern and Duke. Look for Army to stack the box to control the run because Navy can't pass.....


PICK: Army +13.5 vs. Navy LOSER

[Big Pimpin]

Uh-oh...opposites tonight...oh well...bol

[galaxy5oo]

GL JoePa,

I was up half the night looking at this game and trying to decide what to do and I finally layed down on Miami OH after spending a lot of time going back and forth. I have been following you some since I have been on here and think you do a superb job and just wanted to say I felt a lot more at ease when I saw you were on the same side this morning.

Don't know why but one of my sites had them at -1 last night and they were still at -1 this morning. That was nice.

[joepa66]

Auburn Tigers -13 vs. Tennessee

Auburn is 11-0 and Tennessee is 9-2 with their smoke and mirrors play....The Vols are 4-7 ATS, 2-2 ATS away from home while the Tigers are 7-3 ATS and 3-1 ATS on the road only failing to cover while in the stretch D vs. Alabama in a back door cover with the game in hand late at 21-6.....
I say smoke and mirrors play because the Orange has given up 420 yards to Vandy, 567 to So Carolina, 400 to Auburn in their earlier meeting, and 421 vs. Florida....they also have 73rd rated pass defense surrendering 224ypg and the only times they have limited teams to under 200 yards passing was vs. Notre Dame, Bama, and Ole Miss.....they gave up 1886 yards an average of 269.5 yards per game in their remaining games with 341 vs. So Carolina and 314 vs. Vandy! Auburn is ranked 46th in passing at 229 yards per game so you cannot just stack the line and stop Cadillac or Ronnie because they'll throw over top of you! Rushing wise the Tigers average 190ypg, they're quick and a lot quicker on turf. The Vols run for 177 per game but face a stiff Tiger D ranked 10th and who only relinquishes 97ypg. So they'll try to thow with their 48th ranked pass attack but face Auburn's 9th ranked air defense AND the hardest team to score on in the league giving up just 9.6ppg. Tennesse has only passed for more than 200 yards vs. Kentucky (weakling), Ole Miss (average), LaTech (weakling) and Florida (sad), all defenses not exactly on the same plane with Auburn's. Only three teams have topped the 200 yard mark passing vs. the Tigers, Ole Miss in a Tiger rout, Arkansas another Tiger rout, and Alabama who got 80 of their 226 on a last desperation drive vs. a stretch D.
The Tigers are pissed at the BCS and look to make more than just a lot of points in the rankings here....they need to win in a big way!

PICK: Auburn -13 vs. Tennessee LOSER

[golotb]

Loven the plays joe Pa !!
I'm with ya tonight with Miami OH Lets GO Redhawks!!
Lets hammer the man!!:thumbs:

Tigers on Saturday may be my biggest play I'll let you know!!:thumbs:

[golotb]

The RedHawks are the hottest team in the MAC right now, as they
have won seven straight games, including a 37-27 victory at Akron on November 20th that cliched the program's second straight East title. Miami-Ohio, which won the MAC Championship last season, will attempt to successfully defend the
conference title for the first time since the program won three straight league crowns from 1973-75.

Redhawks have won three straight!!:thumbs:

Redhawks are 4-0 ats last 4

My take the redhawks are just the better team!!

Good luck to all!!!

[joepa66]

Big 12 Championship @ Kansas City

Oklahoma -22.5 vs. Colorado Buffaloes

Boomer Sooners are 11-0 and headed toward a showdown with SoCal....the dream matchup that all the TV gods are rooting for, while the Buffaloes are very happy to be where they are considering three short weeks ago they were 4-4 and heading nowhere fast but finished with three straight wins to end the season at 7-4!
Oklahoma comes into this game with a +12 turnover margin, and have outscored their opponents 35.5ppg (10th ranked) - 14.6ppg (6th ranked). During the season they were only outstatted twice, TT and A&M, where they showed they are susceptible to the pass giving up 369 and 360 in those game. However, the Sooners have no tracked stats ranking them in the top or bottom three in league play....they are a horrible 3-8 ATS this year, 3-4 ATS @ home covering albiet vs. Texas, Houston and Kansas....The boys from Norman have been favored by 20+ points 6 times this year and covered twice...that's 2-4 ATS when laying more than 20 points in the role of a favorite and Houston and Kansas were their two covers. They are currently on an 0-4 ATS streak in their last four games and are 0-4 ATS AWAY for the season!
Colorado is 7-4 ATS this season, 2-3 ATS @ home, BUT were 5-0 ATS on the road....where they covered as dogs @ Mizzou, A&M, Nebraska (won straight up), Kansas (won straight up) and Washington St. (a straight up win in their opener). The Buffs covered in last year's meeting as a 25pt. doggie and missed barking two years ago as a 13.5pt. doggie by just 2.5pts in a 27-11 loss.
The Sooners offense is well balanced, running for 231ypg (17th) vs. the Buffs 70th ranked run D at 166ypg, and the Crimson and White rank 24th in passing at 254ypg which is right on the Black and Gold's D pass average which ranks 100th. The Colorado offense ranks 54th in passing at 219ypg (and passed for 364 vs. the Aggies and gave up 292 whereas the Sooners passed for 292 but yielded 360 vs. A&M) vs. the 51st ranked Sooner pass D at 207ypg, and the Buffs running O is 79th ranked at 133ypg vs. the Sooners 8th ranked run D at 95ypg.....
Colorado will have their hands full but of late they have rb Robert Purify healthy and he easily went over the 100 yard mark IN THE FIRST HALF last week against Nebraska's Black Shirts. Joel Klatt completes more than 60% of his passes and if the Buffs make it through the 2nd and 3rd quarters where excel scoring 23ppg of their 35ppg, they may make a small game of it as the Sooners circle the wagons.
I'll watch to see if the line climbs even higher and hope to get it at +24 but I love the points. The Sooners may play not to lose their BCS championship berth as Auburn may have to win 70-7 to vault past them....

PICK: Colorado +22.5 vs. Oklahoma LOSER

[Domer]

I like the plays joepa, BOL this weekend bro!!!

[joepa66]

California Golden Bears -21 @ Southern Mississippi Golden Eages

CAL is 9-1 SU this year, 7-3 ATS and an amazing 5-0 ATS on the road and covered 4 of those trips as a FAV, twice as a FAV of -23.5 and -29 pts.. So. Miss is 6-4 SU and 6-4 ATS and just 2-2 ATS @ home covering only in wins vs. UAB and ECU and losing to UCinn and Houston.
The Golden Bears O is amazing.....averaging 489.6ypg this season topping the 400+ yard mark in 6 games, going over the 500+ yard mark twice, and going over 600 yards once. They are 6th ranked in scoring at 38.4ppg and their D is ranked 4th in scoring defense letting opponents score just 13.1ppg. The Fighting Tedfords are +6 in turnover margin in their last 6 games since giving up two balls vs. USC in a 23-17 loss at SoCal, a game in which they turned the ball over on the Trojan's 15 yard line AND a game in which they dominated the stats 424-205 total yards....unbelievable.....their only hiccup of they year and they totally controlled the entire field!
So. Miss has lost the stats in 7 of their 10 games this season, are 0-1 ATS when playing in December, and 4-6 ATS when playing outside the conference. They will try to avenge a 34-2 loss to Cal last year, a game dominated by the Bears 411-241 in total yardage. I doubt even a healthy Dustin Almond at QB can pull a miracle out of the fire this season against the Bears D which has 2 shutouts to it's credit (vs. AZSt 27-0 & AZ 38-0).
CAL's D is ranked 4th in rushing at 89ypg and outside of ECU and Tulane, the So Miss offense which makes 41 rushing attempts per game and gains just 156ypg, has no other game more than 165 yards in rushing and that was vs. Houston. So. Miss's passing game is ranked 105th @ 163ypg going against the 44th ranked Cal air defense.
Offensively, have I mentioned Cal's offense yet....Cal ranks 6th in rushing at 254ypg and 41st in passing @ 236ypg going against the Eagles 71st rated run D (they've hardly faced a good running team this year and gave up a whopping 234 vs. TCU, 280 vs. Memphis, 262 vs. Bama and 274 vs. Nebraska......Pass defense wise So. Miss have given up big numbers to UAB (206), TCU (250), Memphis (247), UCinn (308), Houston (345), and Nebraska....who? the Huskers passing? (202). I look for lots of points and Cal to put Thor's Hammer down as they lock up the last BCS bowl spot in a no-doubter!

Still at -21 at the local book......lucky me I was on it Tuesday!


PICK: CAL Golden Bears -21 vs. Southern Mississippi LOSER

[joepa66]

ADDING -

Cal Golden Bears & So Miss OVER 53.5

[silkypicks]

gl
i'm leaning to all the favs saturday
except va tech +7
:thumbs:

[joepa66]

Green on Green
Michigan State Spartans -7 @ Hawaii Rainbows

From EightOhEight located on the Big Island and in Primo's Security/Fire Alarm thread......
On a side note, I would play Hawaii. Timmy's last game, as well as chad owens and a number of other 5th year seniors. Senior day at home against a Big 10 school, we usually get up for these games. (Notre Dame and Alabama most recently) It's hard to go against Hawaii at home. They need this game to make the Hawaii bowl, and everybody knows it. I'm hoping there is some NCAA politics involved here. Hehe. The NCAA knows that without Hawaii in their own bowl game...Aloha Stadium on Christmas day with UAB vs whoever will not bring any kind of crowd whatsoever. Here's hoping that the MSU players come here for a vacation and some fun in the sun with our 80+ degree winter weather. And maybe they will get a little bit of the shaft from the refs in a close game haha. Go Warriors!!

Plus....the 'Bows are 5-1ATS @ home, Michigan State is 2-3ATS away, and the Spartans are 5-5 ATS on the road in December and 5-5 ATS when playing outside the conference in December! The Bows may give up big time rushing numbers @ 259ypg, that's 117th, but Timmie Chang throws for an average of 326ypg...that's 3rd ranked, and they average 49 throwing attempts per game...I doubt Mich St. has seen those kind of numbers in the Big Ten since they've been thrown on a average of 29 times per game this season....their heads will be spinning and they'll see lots of weird formations on the Island and not just from the lava flows.

PICK: Hawaii +7 vs. Michigan State WINNER...thankfully so!!!

[joepa66]

You think I would have learned my lesson from earlier in the season by trying to cap too many games.....however, this is the last week before bowl season so let's have some fun.....

Lousiville Cardinals -30.5 vs. Tulane Green Wave

Everybody knows the numbers in this game and Dead and I have been riding the Cardinals all season long.....so I won't get into too many numbers, here goes:
The Cards are 9-1 SU and Tulane is 5-5 and Louisville is an amazing 9-1 ATS this year but check out Tulane.......the Green Wave has built up quite an undertow in the latter part of the season.....they have won 3 games in a row, have covered the spread in all three, and have won 4 of their last 5 contests....who'da thunk it?!
But this has not been the same Louisville team that UCinn was the tonic for last week in a 70-7 rout! Recently they have given up 104 pts. thru 3 games.....almost as much as they have given up all year....and they did so vs. TCU, Memphisto, and Houston.....that's a 34.6666666666667 ppg average or something like that.....
Tulane in their last 5 games is averaging 36.8ppg and 456 total yards of offense......311 by passing which ranks them 8th in the Who's Hot, Who's Not stats ahead of Oklahoma, Toledo, SoCal, Miami, FL, Florida and GA....overall passing wise the Green Wave are 29th at 246ypg and should be a good test for the Cards with Boise St. on deck as Boise ranks 15th at 268ypg passing.....They're not playing on the smurf turf, but they are playing on the Green Wave's home field.....Louisville either totaly blows them away or the Green Wave may sneak in a backdoor cover with the Cards subbing many a player after getting up big and staying healthy for their bowl berth which is NOT a BCS game....as JohnnyMaple Leaf said....."Here's hoping Tulane's first unit is as good as Louisville's second unit". We'll see if the Cards are interested.....I hope the line goes even higher before gametime but like it now.....

PICK: Tulane +30.5 vs. Louisville LOSER

[Big Pimpin]

BOL saturday papaJoe......lets win some cheese to go into bowl season fat

[golotb]

Joe pa loven the info
Lets hammer the man this weekend!!
plays that we line up on Auburn, Cal, Tulane, Army
:thumbs:

[joepa66]

F-U-G-L-Y :bang: :bang: :bang:

UPDATED YEAR-TO-DATE TOTALS
After absolutely my worst week ever.....hate to end the regular season on such a low note.....cannot wait to go bowling!!!

Early Leans 66-50-1 (4-7 last week)
JoePa's Picks 38-35-1 (1-7) last week...too many games)
Two-Team Teasers 8-4 (no action)

Thank God I tailed Dead and Bo on the VaTech and Hawaii picks so at least I made a little something.....