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Stifler's Mom
11-28-2004, 11:49 AM
Finally added up my record. Don't laugh too much.

YTD 72-83-4 (-62.49 units)

These are the 6 games that fit into my "system" today. Try to pick the SU winner and play em, and disregard the spread, unless it's more than -7.

Philadelphia Eagles -7 (-115)

I'm sure this is a big public play, but IMO the Eagles remain very undervalued. Eli Manning has a long way to go in the NFL, and now he has to face a defense that is not afraid to put pressure on him and in incliment weather. Eagles should win this one, so i'll lay the 7 pts.

Cincinnati Bengals -6 (-105)

Cincy is clearly a better team than Cleveland, especially when Kelly Holcombe is taking the snaps for Cleveland. Wasn't this guy supposed to be the future for Cleveland last year taking over for the now out of the NFL Tim Couch? Guess not since he looked awful and Butch Davis couldn't decide if Holcombe or Couch sucked more, so they brought in Garcia who has kept Cleveland in ballgames this year. As Garcia goes, the Cleveland offense goes....and Garcia will be going nowhere today, since he's not playing.

Cincy was the first team to hold Pittsburgh in check last week and almost pull of a win, and there's no reason Cleveland should beat Cincy today. Laying the 6.

Houston Texans +1 (-105)

I guess they are a dog because McNair is playing now for Tennessee? Whatever, Houston has beaten better teams than Tennessee, and IMO Tennessee remain overvalued from when they were good. Line should be Houston -3 here. Houston should get the job done today too at home.

Buffalo Bills +5

Bills have a better team than Seattle. Only thing that concerns me is that Buffalo hasn't played especially well on the road this year, but since the first 3 games, Seattle hasn't played well anywhere. Surging Buffalo should win this one SU behind another strong performace from Willis McGahee and their special teams against sinking Seattle, so +5 is a gift as far as I'm concerned.

Arizona Cardinals +3

Another team that is night and day between home and away. I don't much like going against the AFC with an NFC team, but I think this is a good spot to do it. Arizona is pretty mean in the desert, and the Jets, well I still think they are a bit overrated....especially now with Quincy Carter at QB. Arizona should win SU, so I'll take the FG.

Miami Dolphins pk

A battle of the 2 worst records in the NFL, although I don't think it's a battle of the 2 worst TEAMS. Miami is head and shoulders above SF IMO and if they played in the NFC, I believe they would be at least 4-6 or 5-5. Miami's defense should be able to shut down SF and their offense should be able to score at least enough to win against a SF defense that turned to shit once Julian Peterson got hurt.

2 units each

Now Denver, Pittsburgh and Atlanta would also be teams I am thinking will win SU, but the spreads are too high to fit the system.

I would take New England, but Baltimore has won its last 5 ATS, and they're the kind of team that will go against my system with their good defense when they're a dog, as they did in Philly a few weeks ago as a +7 dog. I'm not convinced New England will blow Baltimore out, so i skipped that game.

Could not determine a winner between Jacksonville/Minnesota, Tampa Bay/Carolina, or San Diego/Kansas City, so they're no plays as well.

That should cover my humble opinion on all the games today, lol

BOL everyone :thumbs:

larry4498
11-28-2004, 11:52 AM
BOL today Stiff!!

BayouTiger
11-28-2004, 11:55 AM
Stiffler...I love those picks w/o Miami however. Just not consistent enough to put my money on. Leaning toward SF there...You have my best 2 plays today in Cinncy and Buffalo. I will bet these two SU and parlay. I like them alot and BOL to all your picks,bro!!!

Big Pimpin
11-28-2004, 12:07 PM
BOL stif.....line dropping in the Philly game now 6.5


On Buffalo with ya

Stifler's Mom
11-28-2004, 12:11 PM
I know BP. I was a little pissed when it dropped cause I normally wait for better lines closer to game time, but I actually thought this one would go the other way, so i grabbed it before it got juiced to -120 or -130, or moved to -7.5 pts. I think maybe because of the weather, people may be thinking a close/low scoring game so take the pts??

I still think Philly wins by more than a TD though against an inferior team. They can also clinch the division with a win today, and that's the whole point of the season is it not? Why push it off?

Go Eagles :thumbs:

MAJOR
11-28-2004, 12:23 PM
gl Stiff
:thumbs:

Stifler's Mom
11-28-2004, 12:38 PM
Oooohhhh....just read on another site that some tout has the Jets as his 1,000,000* LOCK OF THE YEAR.

Guess I better hedge that Arizona play now while I have the chance, lol.

I am also VERY close to adding Baltimore, but just can't do it for some reason :bang:

Stifler's Mom
11-28-2004, 12:49 PM
adding a teaser, against my better judgement, lol...

7 pt/2 team teaser @ -130

Steelers/Redskins over 28
Oakland Raiders +19

I hear the weather is pretty poor in Denver right now (snow). Also a rivalry game. I like Oakland to say within 19 of Denver tonight...

28 is really low. I see this one going close to 40. 24-13 Pittsburgh sounds pretty close. May be more if the Redskins can get off their ass and score, and force Pittsburgh to score to win.

2 units

Troubleduke
11-28-2004, 01:02 PM
GL today Stifler.

I love Cincy laying 6. The Browns offensive line is a mess and Holcomb can't scramble for shit. Could be a blowout :yeah:

Stifler's Mom
11-28-2004, 01:59 PM
If Palmer could avoid the interecptions, Cincy would be looking mighty good.

10 of Cleveland's 13 pts have come from them starting inside the Cincinnati 25 :bang:

If Palmer gets it together, they will still cover. Cleveland O can't do much when faced with any kind of field in front of em so far except for 1 long play.

Stifler's Mom
11-28-2004, 04:19 PM
BENGALS :yeah:

Nice pick 6 for the cover at the end.

58-48? Thought I was watching a college game.

3-1 so far. Only loss was on that stupid teaser. One day I'll learn how stupid teasers are :bang:

Troubleduke
11-28-2004, 06:28 PM
That wasn't exactly how I thought that Cle/Cin game would go but in the end it's still $$$. Congrats on that one!:prtytme:

Stifler's Mom
11-28-2004, 08:22 PM
Yea, definitely not the way I thought it would go either TD. I really thought the Browns would be lucky to get 10 pts today, LOL

Anyway, a win is a win, and I'll take it...cause the man sure as hell takes em when I lose in that fashion.

5-2 (+5.20 units) today. If I had stayed away from that stupid teaser, my original picks would have been 5-1. One day I'll learn :bang:

For the night game, I like Oakland + whatever points they are getting by now....but definitely not one of my favorite plays of the day, so I'll be skipping it and actually watching a football game WITHOUT money on the line for a change.

Hope everyone had a good day today :thumbs:

Stifler's Mom
11-28-2004, 10:59 PM
HA! I was just watching ESPN News and the moron covering the Buffalo/Seattle game basically gave no credit to the Bills, and said "Seattle just didn't show up today".

More like "Buffalo showed up in Seattle today and whooped their candy asses"...as the Rock would say.

When are people going to start giving the Bills the respect they deserve, and start giving them credit for turning from a cellar dweller into a pretty decent team?

5-1 last 6 games and the only loss was last year's super bowl champion Patroits. Only the top 2 teams in each conference (Pittsburgh, New England, Philly and Atlanta) can claim an equal or better record in their last 6 games if my memory serves me correctly.

No they're not gonna win the super bowl or anything, but man, these people make it sound like their opponents are just allowing them to win like I let my 5 year old win at video games. Sheesh.