Kevin
11-12-2004, 09:16 PM
Week 10 Fantasy Preview
November 12, 2004
By Nate Ravitz, Matt Watson, and Mike Rainey
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Jets
Overview: Much to the dismay of Jets fans everywhere, the Quincy Carter era begins on Sunday. With Chad Pennington out at least two games with a shoulder injury, Carter takes over the reins of the Jets' version of the West Coast offense. That's significant, because Carter had not played in such an offense before joining the team in late August. Luckily for Carter, the rest of the New York offense is at full strength. On defense, safety Jon McGraw is questionable (groin), while star defensive ends John Abraham (illness) and Shaun Ellis (groin) are both probable and expected to play. Linebacker Sam Cowart will return and see 10-15 plays of action, giving the Jets another big linebacker to throw at Jamal Lewis on obvious running downs. For the Ravens, star offensive tackle Jonathan Ogden is once again questionable with his bum hamstring, as is nickel back Deion Sanders with a toe injury. Tight end Todd Heap (ankle) remains out.
Baltimore: Jamal Lewis ran for 81 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries last week in his return from a two-game suspension. He was hurt by the absence of Ogden, and there's a good chance that will be the case this week. The Jets have definitely improved their run defense this year, as they rank 11th overall and have only given up five rushing scores. However, they've allowed 100-yard rushers (Corey Dillon, Willis McGahee) in two of the last three games. The Jets are less likely to control the clock with Chad Pennington out, meaning Lewis should have no trouble getting 20+ carries and going for over 80 yards again. A big game is less likely if Ogden remains out. With one touchdown pass in the last four games and only three on the season, Kyle Boller is right at the bottom of the quarterback options every week. He ranks above only Craig Krenzel on our weekly cheat sheets, and that may not be fair to Krenzel. With Heap out, the only receiving option even marginally worth considering is Travis Taylor. With 13 receptions in the last two games, Taylor could be a respectable third receiver in leagues that reward receptions.
New York: The Jets have effectively run the ball on everyone but the Bills this season, but the Ravens present a major challenge. Baltimore has the seventh-ranked run defense in the league and is allowing just 3.5 yards per rush. With a healthy offensive line, the Jets should be able to get enough of a push for Martin to be able to grind out 70-90 yards on 20+ carries, and they're likely to give him plenty of work. The Jets have played conservatively much of the season against teams with suspect offenses, and that should be the case on Sunday. However, since Martin isn't likely to break many runs of even 10 yards, his chances of a big game aren't good. You can also expect the Ravens, who have allowed only three rushing scores all season, to really pack it in the red zone and try to force Quincy Carter to beat them. Carter threw a long TD pass to Santana Moss last week, but the defender fell down on the play. Much is made of Carter's strong arm, and indeed the Jets may take a few shots deep this week. But it's unreasonable to think that Santana Moss and Justin McCareins are somehow better fantasy options because of Carter's stronger arm, and neither is a great option against Baltimore's seventh-ranked pass defense. Moss had a big game last week, and even the week before it was clear that he was back to full speed. But neither he nor McCareins should be relied on as anything better than third receivers this week.
Kansas City Chiefs @ New Orleans Saints
Overview: This is a battle between two 3-5 teams who are both harboring playoff hopes. It's also a battle of two of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Saints rank dead last in total defense, and the Chiefs rank 25th. Both teams have explosive offenses - though the Saints haven't always looked the part this season - so this has the potential to be a shootout. In fact, the Las Vegas over/under on the game is 56.5, the highest of any game this weekend. The Chiefs are almost certain to be without Priest Holmes, who is listed as doubtful with a knee injury and hasn't practiced this week. Derrick Blaylock is expected to get the start in his place. Blaylock is actually listed as questionable with a quad injury, but he's practiced this week and his presence on the injury report appears to be nothing more than a leftover of the fact that he missed last week's game. The Chiefs have plenty of other others to worry about. Linebacker Shawn Barber was lost for the season last week, and replacement Monty Beisel is still getting over a calf injury. Cornerback Dexter McCleon (hamstring) hopes to play but probably won't be at full speed. The Saints could have a tight end problem in this game. Both Ernie Conwell (shoulder) and Boo Williams (neck) missed practice on Thursday and are listed as questionable.
Kansas City: Trent Green has thrown three touchdowns in each of the last two games, and he's averaged 336 passing yards per game over the last four. The entire Kansas City offense has been clicking the last several weeks. Priest Holmes is one of the best running backs in the NFL, but his absence won't be as pronounced against the league's worst defense. The Saints will still have to respect the run, mainly because of the Chiefs' dominant offensive line, so there will be room for Green to throw. Tony Gonzalez has back-to-back 100-yard games and has scored in three of his last four. He's the unquestioned No. 1 tight end this week with Antonio Gates on a bye. Both Johnnie Morton and Eddie Kennison are solid third options against the No. 31 pass defense in the league. Morton has been consistent all year and has scored in two straight games. Assuming that Blaylock is at full speed, and we believe he is, there are barely a handful of better options at running back this week. Blaylock already has a four-touchdown game this season, and he's bound to break some long runs once he gets to the second level. Larry Johnson should get some spot work, but he isn't worth considering unless there's a last-minute change to Blaylock's status. Johnson was ineffective in place of Holmes last week, particularly down near the goal line. The Saints have given up four 100-yard rushing games this season, rank 30th in total run defense, and are allowing 4.7 yards per rush.
New Orleans: The Saints have been inconsistent on offense this season, but against lesser defenses like the Raiders and Vikings, they've been able to pile up the points. They should do so again this week, with Deuce McAllister leading the way. McAllister's ankle is reportedly inching closer to 100 percent, and he's scored five touchdowns in the last three games. He hasn't necessarily been all that impressive in those games, but the Chiefs and their porous run defense are just what he needs to get back on track. Kansas City actually ranks a respectable 15th against the run, mainly because they're often able to force teams into shootouts. While that may happen again this week, the Saints rarely forget about McAllister, and he should be good for 25 touches in this game. Against a defense allowing 4.7 yards per rush, that should be more than enough for McAllister to top 100 yards and score at least once. Aaron Brooks has had only one truly big game this season, but this could be his second. Only the Texans have allowed more passing touchdowns than the Chiefs, who also given up a whopping 7.8 yards per pass attempt. Joe Horn will be looking to put on a show for his former team, and he's a good bet to find the end zone. Given the status of Boo Williams and Ernie Conwell, the Saints may use more three- and four-receiver sets, potentially creating more opportunities for Donte Stallworth and Jerome Pathon. Still, starting either one of those two is a desperation play .
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys
Overview: The top and the bottom of the NFC East square off, and they actually have something in common. Both teams are coming off embarrassing road losses to AFC North teams, by nearly the same score: 27-3 at Pittsburgh for the Eagles and 26-3 at Cincinnati for the Cowboys. But that's where the similarities end. The Eagles are still the overwhelming favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl (Vegas has them at 5-6, with the Seahawks second at 9-2) while the Cowboys may yet contend for the top pick in the 2005 draft. These teams split the season series last year, with each winning at home, but the Eagles have won seven of the last eight overall. Philly tight end L.J. Smith missed practice on Thursday and was downgraded to questionable. Cowboys wide receiver Quincy Morgan hopes to return from a hamstring injury but is still listed as questionable, and Bill Parcells has indicated that Morgan won't play on Monday night unless he can practice this weekend.
Philadelphia: Despite the suspicious-looking sideline stalk job of Donovan McNabb by Terrell Owens last week, all indications are that the two are still on the same page. That's good news, because this is a matchup they should be able to exploit. The Cowboys have given up 16 passing touchdowns with only four interceptions this season, partly because cornerback Terence Newman has struggled. McNabb has an interesting track record against Dallas. In his last five games against them, he's thrown three touchdown passes three times, with only one TD pass in each of the other two games. Unfortunately, all of the three-touchdown games were at home, with the other two games at Texas Stadium. Still, McNabb should produce excellent fantasy numbers this week, and the Dallas defense this season is nowhere near as good as last year's version. Terrell Owens caught 12 passes for 123 yards and two touchdowns in his last visit to Dallas in 2002, and he loves to play in the stadium where "Star-gate" occurred back in 2000. Brian Westbrook is listed as probable because of his cracked rib, but he played through the injury last week and should do so again. Westbrook had eight carries for 37 yards and a touchdown in Dallas last season. He should get something closer to 15 touches this week, though the Eagles may still be careful with him. The Cowboys rank 24th in run defense and allow 4.7 yards per rush, so we like Westbrook's chances of making a couple of big plays. However, his health status makes him a risky play. David Akers is expected to play despite missing practice Thursday with a hip flexor spasms, but owners should keep an eye on the situation this weekend just in case.
Dallas: Although the Cowboys are reeling and Vinny Testaverde threw three interceptions last week, Bill Parcells insists that he's nowhere close to pulling Testaverde for Drew Henson. We believe Parcells, and it should be safe to play Testaverde if you normally would. That said, Testaverde isn't a great play against the Eagles, who have given up only nine passing touchdowns in eight games, and have yet to give up a 300-yard passing game. The Eagles also lead the NFL in sacks with 27, and they are a good bet to force Testaverde into at least two turnovers. Keyshawn Johnson caught six passes for 83 yards against the Eagles last year, and he and tight end Jason Witten are both decent plays this week. Witten has emerged as a top five fantasy tight end. It's too bad the Cowboys can't run the ball, because the Eagles allow 4.7 yards per rush. The Cowboys may try to get Eddie George the ball a lot early in the game, but he really won't have value unless he gets around 30 carries. ReShard Lee continues to show promise when he gets the ball, but Parcells is upset with his grasp of other aspects of the game (namely pass protection), making him a poor bet to get more than the career-high six carries he got last week. That's really too bad, because Lee's vision and decisiveness would probably make him very effective against this defense.
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
Overview: The up-and-coming Texans were put in their place a bit last week in Denver, and they hope it doesn't happen again in another tough road matchup. The Colts have won all four games these teams have played, but the Texans have decreased the margin in every game (23-3, 19-3, 30-21, 20-17). The Texans will probably play this game without offensive tackle Todd Wade, who apparently returned too soon from a high ankle sprain last week. The Colts will probably be without safety Mike Doss, and cornerback Nick Harper remains questionable, as well. Starting offensive guard Rick DeMulling may also miss the game.
Houston: David Carr has been a solid, but not spectacular, fantasy performer this year, but this could be his best game yet. The Colts should score at will on the Houston defense, and the Texans don't figure to have too much trouble doing the same. Indy ranks dead last in total pass defense and has given up a league-high three 300-yard passing games so far. Carr had very little success against the Colts last season, but he was knocked out of one of the games when he was doing well. Besides, he's come a long way as a player since then. With injuries hurting an already terrible pass defense, the Colts figure to have little chance of stopping Andre Johnson. Johnson has gone three games without tallying 100 yards or scoring a touchdown, and one of those two streaks is bound to end this week, if not both. Jabar Gaffney has picked up his play the last few weeks and is worth considering as a No. 3 receiver in this terrific matchup. Domanick Davis used the Week 7 bye to get healthy and he looked as good last week as he has since Week 2, when he handled the ball 36 times and took a bit of a beating. Davis may only get 15 or so carries in this game, but he could do a lot with them, and his receptions, against a defense allowing 4.6 yards per rush. Davis got almost all of the work last week, and there's no reason to consider Jonathan Wells, despite his sometimes fine work earlier in the year.
Indianapolis: Start all of your Colts. Seriously, the only decisions to make this week are if you happen to have two of receivers or both of the tight ends and can only start one of them. Peyton Manning is on fire, and the 25th-ranked pass defense of the Texans won't be able to slow him down. Manning threw four touchdown passes with one INT in last year's two meetings, but he could match that in this game. Marvin Harrison has three 100-yard games in his four meetings with Houston. Reggie Wayne had 96 yards and two touchdowns in the home game last year. Brandon Stokley only played in the second of the two games last season, but he caught nine passes for 67 yards and a TD in that game. With Antonio Gates and Randy McMichael on a bye this week, a lot of fantasy players are looking for a tight end. Dallas Clark and Marcus Pollard are still available in a surprising number of leagues and could be good options this week. Edgerrin James rushed for over 100 yards in both of the games last season, including a 171-yard game in the season finale. The Texans have given up four 100-yard rushing games this season and are allowing 4.5 yards per rush. If the Colts can get a lead, Edge should have a huge game, and even if that doesn't happen, he's a pretty sure bet for at least 100 yards of total offense.
Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams
Overview: This is the second meeting between these teams this year, and the Seahawks would like to forget the first one in Week 5. They dominated the Rams in every facet of the game in the first half only to fall asleep and let St. Louis erase a 17-point deficit in the fourth quarter to escape with a 33-27 OT win. Both teams need this game, as the winner will be in the first place in the NFC West on Sunday night. Seattle could be without cornerback Ken Lucas, who is listed as questionable with a bruised lung. The Rams have no key injuries with the exception of spare receiver Dane Looker, who will miss this game with an ankle injury.
Seattle: The Seahawks escaped what could have been a disaster to their receiving corps last week when Darrell Jackson and Jerry Rice, who were both considered questionable with ankle injuries, were able to play. Only Jackson is listed on the injury report this week, and he's considered probable. He missed practice on Wednesday but was able to participate Thursday. Rice isn't likely to have much value in any game this season, but Jackson should be in for a nice afternoon on Sunday. In the first meeting between these teams, Jackson caught five passes for 94 yards, including a 54-yard TD in the last minute of the first half. He has caught exactly one TD pass in every game he's played against the Rams in his career. The best play on the Seattle offense is clearly Shaun Alexander. The Rams are absolutely abysmal at stopping the run, and Alexander rolled up 150 yards and a TD against them in the first game. Alexander tops our cheat sheets this week and is money in the bank to put together a huge day unless an injury would prevent him from finishing the game. Matt Hasselbeck had a solid game in the Week 5 meeting, completing 20-of-35 passes for 216 yards and two TDs. Like the rest of the Seahawks offense, he started to fizzle as the second half progressed but shouldn't have much problem moving the ball against the suspect Rams secondary. Hasselbeck has topped 200 passing yards in his last four games against the Rams and has thrown six TDs over that span.
St. Louis: Marc Bulger salvaged what could have been a disastrous outing in the first game by getting red-hot in the fourth quarter. He finished with 325 yards and three TDs but also tossed three INTs. He's thrown six TDs and six picks in three career starts against Seattle, and it's probably smart to expect another uneven performance on Sunday. Lucas' absence could help, but it's not like Bulger lit up a depleted New England secondary last week, when the Pats had to resort to using receiver Troy Brown as a nickel back. Bulger should be good for no worse than 250 yards and two TDs in this game with a couple of turnovers mixed in. The main problem with the Rams' passing attack is that their offensive line is performing at a below-average level right now. They aren't giving Bulger time to go through his progressions, and that's a big reason why they were unable to take advantage of the Pats' weak secondary in the last game. The Rams' O-line will catch a break this week with Grant Wistrom still listed as doubtful with a small fracture in his knee and fellow defensive end Chike Okeafor questionable with a neck injury. If Bulger gets time to throw, he'll hit Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce for some big plays even though neither player has a great track record against Seattle. Marshall Faulk had a big game against Seattle in Week 7 of the 2002 season but hasn't done much against them since then (one TD and 180 yards in four games). Seattle ranks fifth in the NFL against the run, and since you can never count on the Rams to give Faulk 20-25 carries, it would be wise to count on him for between 50 and 60 yards and perhaps a TD, but no more.
New York Giants @ Arizona Cardinals
Overview: The Giants were one of the surprises of the early part of the season, but they've now lost two of their last three games, both at home against ordinary competition (Detroit and Chicago). The Cardinals, meanwhile, have won three of their last five games, which is pretty much reason enough for a parade through downtown Phoenix. These teams used to be division rivals in the old NFC East but this marks their first meeting since September of 2002. The Giants will be playing this game without their two starting defensive ends, as Michael Strahan and Keith Washington both suffered season-ending injuries last week. They could also be without backup running back Mike Cloud, who had done a nice job in short-yardage situations recently. Cloud is listed as questionable with a back injury and would be replaced with the ineffective Ron Dayne.
New York: Things are unraveling at the seams for the Giants offense. Kurt Warner is starting to look like the 2002 and 2003 version of himself lately, as he's been serving up more turnovers than grandma at a bake-off. Warner threw two picks and fumbled twice last week, and a quarterback controversy is starting to brew. In the last three games, Warner has been sacked 18 times, and his struggles will allow the Cardinals to focus heavily on stopping Tiki Barber and the running game. Barber will find a way to be productive against the Cardinals regardless of the struggles of the passing game. He ranks second on our cheat sheets this week and should be able to extend his TD streak to seven games. Since the Giants run so many screen passes to Barber, it would take a monumental defensive effort by Arizona to keep him under 100 all-purpose yards and out of the end zone. The Cardinals have yielded nine rushing plays of over 20 yards this season, which is the most in the league. Because of Warner's poor play the past two weeks, none of the Giants receivers have much value. Amani Toomer has been a big disappointment all season and can't be counted on at this point. Jeremy Shockey continues to be the number one target in the red zone and should be good for his usual five to six catches and 50 to 70 yards. Shockey will bust out for a 100-yard effort one of these weeks, but there's no way to know when that game might occur.
Arizona: The Cardinals will likely look to take advantage of the loss of Strahan and Washington by running the ball consistently. Emmitt Smith should get plenty of work in this game and could flirt with 100 yards. Smith has scored in all but two games this season and is going up against a defense that ranks 20th against the run and is allowing 4.5 yards per carry. Those mediocre numbers were compiled with Strahan and Washington in the lineup. Larry Fitzgerald wasn't happy about being shut out of the passing game in Week 8, so rather than sulk he went out and posted the second-best game of his rookie year against the Dolphins last week by grabbing five balls for 92 yards and a TD. Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin wouldn't seem to be good plays against the 10th ranked pass defense in the league, but keep in mind that Strahan's absence will have a trickle-down effect to the secondary. If the Giants can't muster a consistent pass rush on Josh McCown, he's going to be able to find an open man eventually. Boldin and Fitzgerald are both very difficult to cover and don't need much time to get open. McCown could be in line for one of his better outings of the season, though his numbers will be no better than ordinary if the Cardinals do as expected and stick to a run-heavy game plan. This would be a good week to play the Arizona defense. They are tied for second in the NFL with 20 takeaways and lead the league with 11 fumble recoveries. Warner has put the ball on the ground 12 times in eight games this year and can be counted for at least a couple fumbles in this game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons
Overview: Last season these teams split their two meetings with each winning on the other's home field. The Falcons are a hard team to figure, and not just because they're a surprising 6-2. They got torched 56-10 in Week 7 by the Chiefs, allowing them to rush for 271 yards and an NFL record eight touchdowns, then bounced back and beat the Broncos 41-28 in Denver while holding the league's second-best rushing attack to 68 yards on 19 carries. It's anybody's guess as to which team will show up this week against a 3-5 Bucs team that is much more formidable since Brian Griese took over as the starting quarterback.
Tampa Bay: Griese has been brilliant from the minute in stepped on to the field in relief of Chris Simms in Week 5 at New Orleans. He's posted a passer rating of over 100 in three of his four games and was at 94.4 in the other. Griese should continue to post terrific numbers against the league's 30th-ranked passing defense. The Falcons are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete over 66 percent of their passes, and Griese has connected on exactly 69 percent of his throws thus far. If nothing else, Griese should be efficient in this game, and he ranks just outside the top 10 on our cheat sheets. Michael Pittman had a terrific game last week against the Chiefs. He's going against the league's sixth-ranked run defense, one that has been pretty tough to run against for every team but Kansas City. The Falcons are still allowing under 100 rushing yards a game, and while they did allow those eight rushing TDs against the Chiefs, they've only allowed four in their other seven contests. Pittman could post decent totals if the Bucs give him 20-25 carries in an effort to wear down the Falcons' defensive line, but otherwise you have to believe that he won't emerge from this game with much value. Michael Clayton is a stud and Griese will be looking his way often. Clayton is the best playmaker in the Tampa Bay receiving corps, and the Bucs might try to throw to him deep a few times to keep the defense honest and open things up underneath for their other receivers and Pittman. Martin Gramatica is expected to play through his hip flexor on Sunday, despite the fact that he's listed as questionable on the injury report.
Atlanta: Michael Vick is coming off what may be the best game of his career, as he was the first player to throw for over 250 yards and rush for over 100 in a single game against the Broncos in Week 8. The Falcons and Vick's fantasy owners are hoping he builds off that game and takes off in the second half. He'll have his work cut out for him on Sunday against the fourth-ranked pass defense in the NFL. The Bucs did allow Trent Green to throw for 369 yards and three TDs against them last week, but Green is lighting everyone up these days. Vick could easily revert back to his form of Week's 1-7 and probably won't top 200 passing yards against Tampa Bay's solid secondary. Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett each scored against the Broncos two weeks ago, but neither did much else on the ground in that game. Duckett has clearly been more effective running the ball than Dunn in the limited opportunities he's received. Dunn has scored seven TDs in eight games this season, and for that reason alone he's worthy of consideration. He's still expected to get a majority of the carries but could lose more touches to Duckett if his struggles continue. Dunn has only averaged 2.8 yards per carry in his last four games. The Bucs rank 16th in the NFL against the run, and it's worth pointing out that their defensive line is pretty banged up. Damian Gregory and Ellis Wyms have already endured season-ending injuries, and starting defensive tackle Anthony McFarland is questionable for Sunday with a triceps injury he suffered last week. Alge Crumpler remains an elite play at tight end. Peerless Price scored on two nice receptions in Week 8 but has never scored in three career games against Tampa Bay.
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers
Overview: The Packers could overtake the Vikings for first place in the NFC Central with a win on Sunday. After a 1-4 start to the season, the Packers won their final three games of the first half before a much-needed bye. The Vikings have lost two in a row and clearly aren't the same team without Randy Moss, who has been ruled out of this game with his balky hamstring. Earlier in the week Mewelde Moore looked likely to return from his sprained ankle after missing Monday's game in Indy, but he didn't practice on Thursday and his status is now in doubt. The Packers list free safety Darren Sharper as questionable with an injured left knee, but he practiced on Thursday and reported no problems. It looks like Sharper will be able to play.
Minnesota: Daunte Culpepper is going up against a questionable Packers secondary that he should be able to exploit. Green Bay is 19th against the pass this season, and Culpepper threw five TD passes in two games against them last year. However, Culpepper has averaged under 200 passing yards per game since Moss got injured, and he's yet to turn in a multi-TD pass performance without No. 84. The Vikings still have enough weapons for Culpepper to have a big day, but they'll need more consistency from Marcus Robinson and Nate Burleson. Both players have had their moments this season but both have been non-factors far too frequently. While either one is capable of popping up and having a big game, there's no way to know which one. Both Robinson and Burleson are risky plays with high upside. Culpepper could post his best numbers yet without Moss in the lineup simply because the Packers have an awful secondary. Onterrio Smith will get the start at running back whether or not Moore plays. He can't be counted on for a great day on the ground with Moss out and Grady Jackson now healthy and anchoring the interior of the Packers' defensive line, but Smith is such a big part of the Minnesota passing game that he should emerge with plenty of all-purpose yardage. Michael Bennett's workload will increase if Moore doesn't play, but there's no reason to give him fantasy consideration based on his limited playing time this season. Jermaine Wiggins is quietly posting a nice se ason and comes in at No. 7 on our tight end cheat sheets this week. He could easily match his totals of five receptions and 63 yards from Week 9.
Green Bay: Brett Favre should have an absolute field day picking apart the Vikings secondary. Last season, Favre threw four picks in Week 1 against Minnesota and then bounced back to throw three TDs and post a 105.4 passer rating in Week 9. The Packers will likely use a lot of three and four-receiver sets to spread the Vikings out and create some matchup problems. Favre is a terrific play at home against a dome team that ranks 29th in the NFL at defending the pass and doesn't have a history of playing well in the elements at this time of year. Ahman Green could also be in line for a big day against a run defense that is allowing 4.7 yards per carry. He's scored four TDs in his last two games and needed last week's bye to help his Achilles injury heal. Green rushed for 53 yards and two TDs against the Vikings in Week 1 last season and then dropped 137 yards on them in the rematch. He also had 114 combined receiving yards and a TD against them in those two contests. Green should be healthier than he's been at any time since early in the season and is in line for a big game on Sunday. Javon Walker caught three TD passes in the two meetings with the Vikings last season and should be good for at least one in this game. Ironically, Favre, Green, and Walker all rank third on our cheat sheets at their respective positions for Week 10. Donald Driver had big games in Week's 5 and 6 but has been pretty pedestrian in his other six outings. With the exception of Week 11 of the 2002 season, his track record against the Vikings isn't good. But he still has plenty of upside in this favorable matchup.
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots
Overview: The Patriots have beaten the Bills six of the last seven times they've played, including a 31-17 win at Buffalo in Week 4. That game was tied entering the fourth quarter, and the Bills hope to use their solid defense and improved running game to at least be competitive in this one. After seeing their 21-game winning streak come to an end in Pittsburgh two weeks ago, the Patriots got back on track last week by scoring a 40-22 win at St. Louis with a secondary so banged up that Troy Brown had to be used as a nickel back at times. The Pats hope to have cornerback Asante Samuel back for this game after he injured his shoulder in the first quarter last week. They could also have receiver Deion Branch back in the mix for the first time since Week 2. Branch is officially listed as questionable, but head coach Bill Belichick said he's making good progress. The Bills won't have the services of top cornerback Troy Vincent again in this game. Vincent has all but ruled himself out because he's still not fully recovered from knee surgery.
Buffalo: Aside from Willis McGahee and Eric Moulds, nobody on the Bills is a particularly great play at any time. McGahee didn't see a single touch when these teams met in Week 4 since Travis Henry was still the team's starter at that time. Henry actually had his best performance of the year in that game, rushing for 98 yards on 24 carries. As highly-regarded as the Patriots defense is, they aren't particularly stout against the run. The Pats rank 22nd in the league and are allowing 4.3 yards per carry, although they've only yielded five rushing TDs. McGahee has topped 100 yards in each of this three starts thus far, but he's averaged only 3.7 YPC in those games. Given the fact that Drew Bledsoe is a shell of his former self and the Bills rank 27th in the NFL in passing offense, you can bet the Patriots will see a steady diet of McGahee on Sunday. Even if his average isn't good, McGahee should still do no worse than approach 100 yards. Bledsoe is nothing more than injury or bye-week filler and ranks 18th on our cheat sheets this week between Joey Harrington and Vinny Testaverde, which tells you a lot about where his stock lies right now. He threw for a season-high 247 yards in Week 4 against his former team. Moulds has scored in half of his games this season and is usually good for 80 yards each week. His best game of the year was in the Week 4 meeting when he caught 10 passes for 126 yards and a TD. Rookie Lee Evans is starting to show signs of breaking out. He also turned in his best game of the season in the first game with the Pats, catching four passes for 93 yards. Last week against the Jets, Evans pulled down five passes for 64 yards and a TD. He has big-play ability and already has three catches of over 40 yards this season. He'll flirt with the 100-yard mark a time or two before the season is out, but it likely won't happen this week.
New England: The Bills rank fourth against the run and third against the pass so this isn't a favorable matchup for any of New England's key players. However, they racked up nearly 400 yards of total offense in the first game and can be expected to move the ball fairly well on Sunday. Tom Brady threw for 298 yards and two TDs in the first meeting and should post his usual solid numbers. He's posted a passer rating of over 100 in four of his last five games against the Bills. Brady's favorite target of late has been David Givens, who has reached triple-digits in receiving yards for three straight weeks. Givens had 86 yards on three receptions in the Week 4 meeting, while David Patten had his best game of the year in that contest with five receptions for 113 yards and a TD. Both should post respectable totals in the rematch. Corey Dillon rushed for 79 yards and a TD on 19 carries in the first game and is coming off a terrific performance against the Rams. Those 79 yards actually represent Dillon's lowest total of the season, which indicates just how good he's been. Given that fact you can't go wrong with him in your lineup, even against Buffalo's excellent front seven. If you're wondering why Daniel Graham has been so quiet lately, the Boston Herald reported that it's because he's been helping new right tackle Brandon Gorin as a blocker instead of running as many receiving routes as usual.
Carolina Panthers @ San Francisco 49ers
Overview: Not many teams have been hit as hard by injuries as the Panthers this year. Things could still get worse, as there's now talk that Stephen Davis will be placed on the IR due to his balky knee. In the short-term, he's still listed as questionable, but it's looking more and more likely that he'll miss his seventh game of the season. With only two wins between these two teams, the real winner may actually be the team that loses -- they will then be one step closer to having the top pick of next year's draft.
Carolina: Davis practiced on Wednesday but couldn't go on Thursday. While it's at least possible that he'll suit up on Sunday, there's no reason to think that he would be given a heavy workload if he did. He still has a cartilage problem in his knee that surgery earlier in the year was supposed to correct, and it's been nearly impossible for him to practice or play without a great deal of swelling. With Brad Hoover also questionable (back), undrafted free agent Joey Harris could get the bulk of the work. The Niners rank 25th against the run, but they give up just 3.9 yards per carry. Stay away from all Carolina running backs this week. Jake Delhomme came through with a lot of fantasy points last week (299 yards, three TDs, no INTs), but his accuracy was off for much of the game. The Niners have given up 14 TDs with just three INTs -- that's one of the worst ratios in the league. Without the benefit of a reliable running game, Delhomme will likely throw enough passes to approach 300 yards, perhaps even topping that if he boosts his completion percentage above 60% for the first time in five games. Muhsin Muhammad has 16 catches for 200 yards and two touchdowns in his last two games. He's been too inconsistent for much of the year to use him as anything but a No. 3 fantasy receiver, but he does have nice upside this week. The same can be said for Keary Colbert, who leads all rookies by averaging nearly 17 yards per catch.
San Francisco: Fantasy owners have probably been scared off by his injuries, but Tim Rattay has been outstanding in the games that he's played this year. With nine TDs and four INTs in five games, he's posted a 92.9 QB rating. He's thrown two TDs in four out of five starts and has completed a hefty 64.6% of his passes. It's important to constantly monitor his health, but he reported no problems after returning from a one-game absence last week. Carolina has allowed a league-low four passing touchdowns, but that's in part because they've allowed a league-high 13 rushing scores. They've collected just 11 sacks on the year, which suggests that Rattay should have plenty of time to find his receivers. Tight end Eric Johnson is tied for second in the league with 51 receptions, but his production has slowed down lately as Brandon Lloyd has stepped up to become Rattay's go-to target. Lloyd has scored in three of the past four games and is a borderline No. 2 fantasy starter. Curtis Conway and Cedrick Wilson have taken turns stepping up this year, but neither player has topped 60 yards since Week 2. Dennis Erickson indicated that rookie Rashaun Woods would see about 15-20 plays this week in three- and four-receiver sets. It's taken Woods this long to get involved with the offense because he was slowed in training camp and into the regular season with lingering hamstring injuries. Kevan Barlow continues to post ugly yards-per-carry averages, but he has scored twice in the past three games. This is a potentially good matchup for him: the Panthers rank 29th against the run by allowing 142.1 yards per game, and they lack the type of offense that will force the Niners to abandon the run. Expecting Barlow to post his second 100-yard game of the season would be a bit optimistic, but 80 yards and a TD should be within reach. If you've already relegated Barlow to your bench because of his struggles, this is the matchup to give him a another chance.
Chicago Bears @ Tennessee Titans
Overview: The Titans must be considered one of this season's biggest disappointments. Instead of contending for a division title, they're stuck two games under .500 with half of their schedule in the books. If they even want to pretend they have playoff aspirations the rest of the way, they need a win Sunday against the very beatable Chicago Bears. After sitting out Week 8 and resting during last week's bye, Steve McNair returned to practice on Wednesday only to discover his injury hasn't gotten much better. He's still listed as questionable and will likely be a game-time decision. The Bears have a bit of momentum with two consecutive wins, but no one expects them to step up and make a playoff run in the second half. Their offense has been too inconsistent, though their defense has been impressive at times. Thomas Jones returned to practice this week but is still questionable due to his injured toe.
Chicago: Despite ugly box scores that would make a blind man cringe, Craig Krenzel has won each of his first two starts. He's lived off the big play: over a quarter of his yards and both of his touchdowns have come on two long passes the past two weeks. Aside from that, he's completed less than half of his passes and just may be the worst fantasy quarterback in the game. Tennessee ranks just 20th in pass defense, but Krenzel isn't equipped to take advantage. He's nursing an undisclosed injury to his left side but is probable for Sunday's game. David Terrell caught four balls for 70 yards last week, but before that had just two catches and 24 yards in his previous three games combined. Even though he returned to practice this week, Jones is clearly affected by his injured toe. He's questionable on the injury report and could very well miss his second start in a row. Jones injured himself on his first carry in Week 7, allowing Anthony Thomas to average 26.5 carries and 104 yards over the last two games. Though the Titans are giving up just 108.4 yards per game, they're also giving up a hefty 4.6 yards per carry. If Thomas starts, he's a threat to top 100 yards. If Jones starts, he'll likely share at least some carries with Thomas and be a mediocre option.
Tennessee: Chris Brown entered Week 8 with a case of turf toe but still managed to post a season-high 32 carries for 147 yards. After resting during the team's bye last week, Brown no longer wears the protective boot over his injured toe. He's still considered questionable for Sunday's game, but it would be a surprise if he doesn't play. Chicago's strength this year has been the play of their defensive line, but they still rank just 23rd against the run by giving up over 120 yards per game. Despite injuries to their secondary, Chicago ranks second in the league by allowing a paltry 54.3 completion percentage and among the top third with 21 sacks. Whether it's McNair or Billy Volek, Tennessee's QB will be pressured. McNair has earned kudos in the past for being a tough player who starts despite injuries, but he's already admitted that his current ailment simply won't get any better without ample rest. Don't be surprised if he sits this one out. Derrick Mason leads the league with 52 catches and has averaged more than nine catches in each of the three games that Volek has seen extensive action. He's only scored twice this year but is a quality option simply due to his sheer volume of opportunities. Drew Bennett looked like a solid complement to Mason earlier this year, but he's been held to just one catch over the past two games.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Washington Redskins
Overview: These two teams haven't played since 1991, and they haven't played in D.C. since 1985. Still, this game is a reunion of sorts for Marvin Lewis, who served as Washington's defensive coordinator and assistant head coach in 2002 before landing his first head coaching job with Cincinnati in 2003. While the Redskins enter the game with the league's top-ranked defense, Lewis' current team ranks just 28th. Unfortunately for the Bengals, they enter this tough matchup with their best offensive lineman, Willie Anderson, questionable with a knee injury. Redskins defensive end Phillip Daniels and kicker John Hall are out with groin injuries, and LaVar Arrington remains sidelined following knee surgery.
Cincinnati: One of the reasons the Bengals like Carson Palmer so much is because of his arm strength. He's flexed his passing arm in recent weeks, as he's thrown a 50+ yard pass in each of the past three games. He's only thrown six touchdowns compared to 10 interceptions on the year, but he's thrown two scores and two picks over his last three games. The Bengals expect him to continue improving in the second half, though he has a tough matchup going against the league's fifth-ranked pass defense. It would help if he could squeeze more production out of Chad Johnson, a great deep threat whose yards-per-catch average has actually fallen from 15.1 in 2003 to 14.2 this season. Johnson scored five times in his first eight games last year but has just two scores so far this season. That said, both scores have come from at least 50 yards out, so he does occasionally take advantage of Palmer's arm. With Peter Warrick on the IR, T.J. Houshmandzadeh has the potential to become a valuable possession receiver for the Bengals but has been incredibly inconsistent to date. Despite coming through with a 76-yard TD-reception last week, tight end Matt Schobel is hardly a viable fantasy option right now -- though he has plenty of talent if he ever gets integrated into the club's regular offense. The Redskins have allowed a league-low 3.1 yards per carry, not to mention the league's third-fewest rushing yards per game (84). This is a horrible matchup for Rudi Johnson, and there are at least 20 other running backs that should post better fantasy stats th is weekend.
Washington: Entering halftime in Detroit last week, Clinton Portis had run the ball 16 times for 80 yards while Mark Brunell had completed just 5-of-15 passes for 50 yards. Realizing that his best chance to win was to keep the ball in the hands of his best player, Joe Gibbs let Portis run 18 more times (for 66 yards) after the break, not to mention throw a 15-yard touchdown on a trick play. Brunell, on the other hand, threw just twice (for one eight-yard completion) after halftime. That's a curious ratio considering Detroit is usually stout against the run and weak against the pass, but Gibbs realized that his team's aerial attack is simply too weak to scare even a bad pass defense. Cincinnati enters this contest with the league's worst run defense, so there should be no doubting what Gibbs intends to do. Expect another 30+ carries for Portis as he takes advantage of a team giving up 4.5 yards per carry and 149.6 yards per game. And just like he's done three times in his last four games, Brunell could easily fail to break even 100 passing yards on the day. As such, all of Washington's receivers are questionable fantasy plays, including Laveranues Coles, who scored for the first time this year when he caught Portis' TD-pass last week.
Detroit Lions @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Overview: Following a two-game slide which evened their record at 4-4, the Lions go back on the road this weekend. They have a chance to get back above .500, though, as three of their four wins this year have come away from Ford Field. Plus, it helps that Jacksonville will be without their field general -- Byron Leftwich will miss his first game of the season because of an injured knee. Leftwich has been a clutch performer all year -- he's helped guide the team to three victories this season in which his team was losing entering the final minute of regulation. David Garrard used last week's bye to prepare for his first start of the season, but it remains to be seen just how well he can fill Leftwich's shoes. These teams haven't played since 1998, but Fred Taylor has fond memories as he carried the Jags to a 37-22 victory by running for 183 yards.
Detroit: Roy Williams has missed two of the past four games with a sprained ankle and has been hampered in the two games that he did play. He's been able to practice more on the ankle this week, though, and is no longer listed on the injury report. Joey Harrington will be relieved if Williams is close to 100% on Sunday. Harrington has completed less than 60% of his passes in each of the team's four losses this year but has topped that mark in three of their wins. Luckily for Detroit fans, the Jaguars have allowed a hefty 66.3 completion percentage, the second-highest in the league. And while the Jags rank in the middle of the pack by allowing 11 paaing TDs in eight games, they have the league's second-lowest INT total with only three. Williams has been inconsistent of late because of his injury, but this is a good matchup for both he and Harrington. Az Hakim has missed practice this week and is questionable because of injuries to his hip, back, and ribs. He's stepped up the past couple of weeks by averaging 105 yards, but his body has paid the price. Beyond Williams and Hakim, there's no receivers worth thinking about on this team. Detroit has featured the league's worst rushing attack -- both in terms of yards per game (75) and per carry (3.2). Steve Mariucci intends to run the ball more often in the second half of the season, much to rookie Kevin Jones' delight. Jones hasn't carried the ball more than 13 times in a game since Week 1, but he was happy to see that Mariucci included more running plays than usual in practice this week. That said, the Jags have featured one of the better run defenses in the league by allowing just 3.8 yards per carry this year. Even if Jones gets more work than usual, it's difficult to predict he'll finish with much more than 60 yards.
Jacksonville: Garrard played well in the preseason, but he hasn't started a game since 2002 and has played very sparingly over his short NFL career. Even though Detroit's pass defense ranks in the league's bottom third, don't expect Garrard to be given the chance to light up the secondary. Instead, Jack Del Rio will likely focus on the run, just like he's promised to do more often in the second half of the season. Jimmy Smith is too good to take out of your starting lineup, but he's now nothing more than a solid No. 2 fantasy receiver instead of a borderline No. 1. Troy Edwards was a low-ceiling option with Leftwich in the lineup, but he can't possibly be an option until Garrard proves what he can do. Tight end George Wrighster has missed the past four games with a bulging disk in his back and is considered doubtful for this weekend. Fred Taylor carried only three times in Week 8 before going down with a hip pointer, but after resting during the team's bye-week he's ready for a full load. Detroit ranks fourth by allowing just 3.5 yards per carry, though, so Taylor may need 25+ carries to top the century mark. The Lions have allowed only one 100-yard rusher this year, and that was last week. But while Clinton Portis finished with a gaudy 147 yards, it took him 34 attempts to get there.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
Overview: The Steelers and Brown meet up for the 105th time in the AFC's oldest rivalry. The Steelers have dominated this series in recent years by winning 13 of the past 16, including once earlier this season in Pittsburgh. After knocking off undefeated teams in recent weeks, the Steelers are now widely regarded as the hottest team in football. The 3-5 Browns, on the other hand, are losers of two straight and simply trying to get back to the right side of .500.
Pittsburgh: Ben Roethlisberger faced the Browns in his third start of the year. He threw just one TD with one INT, but it was still one of his better games. His 231 yards, 11 yards per attempt and 76.2 completion percentage are still high marks on the season. He's gotten even better in recent weeks, throwing six TDs with just one INT in his last three games. Pittsburgh's run-based offense doesn't require Roethlisberger to top 200 yards, but he's evolving into a pretty solid fantasy option. Maybe he's not a starter in most weeks, but he's definitely one of the better backups, especially when he's going up against the Browns, whose pass defense ranks 22nd. Plaxico Burress caught six balls for 136 yards and a TD against the Browns earlier in the year. He's tallied at least 60 yards in all but one of Roethlisberger's starts -- and the one time he didn't he countered by scoring a TD. He's had more than three receptions in a game just twice this year, but he's made the most of it by averaging 20.4 yards per catch. Given his latest performance against Cleveland and his track record working with Roethlisberger, we'll forgive Burress for being held under 20 yards both times he faced the Browns in 2003. Hines Ward has at least six reception in four of his last six games against Cleveland, but since 2000 he's scored just one TD with one 100-yard game against them. He had six catches for 61 yards against them earlier in the year, and that seems like a good starting point this weekend. Duce Staley has not practiced this week because of his hamstring injury. He's listed as questionable and very well could miss his second game in a row. If that happens, the Steelers will be without any reliable receiv ers in the backfield as third-down back Verron Hayes has already been ruled out with his hamstring injury. Granted, the Steelers have rarely thrown to their backs this year, but their absence would take away the possibility completely. Jerome Bettis is a capable replacement running the ball even though he managed all of 34 yards (and a TD) on 14 carries against the Browns earlier in the year. He's had significant carries the past two weeks and has averaged 4.4 yards per carry. He carried just three times the first time the Steelers faced the Browns last year, but he carried 24 times for 93 yards in the second game. Willie Parker should see some action spelling Bettis if Staley and Haynes are out.
Cleveland: The Browns will be short-handed at wide receiver this weekend as Andre Davis (turf toe) and Andre King (sprained ankle) have already been ruled out. Newcomer Antonio Bryant will likely join Dennis Northcutt in the starting lineup. Bryant has combined for just six catches and 69 yards in his two games with the team, but hopefully he's had enough time to learn the offense. The Steelers are one of five teams with more INTs (9) than TDs allowed (7). Plus, they rank among the leaders by holding the opposition to a 55.5 completion percentage. Jeff Garcia is usually an accurate passer, but the first time he faced the Steelers he completed just 47.1% of his passes. He's been good for at least one TD in six out of eight games this year, but he may not come through this week against the league's sixth-ranked pass defense given the injuries to his receivers. Expect tight ends Aaron Shea and Steve Heiden to be more active, though not enough to be viable fantasy plays. William Green and Lee Suggs continue to share time. Butch Davis wants to give each player equal carries, but if one of the two gets hot Davis will ride the hot hand. Suggs carried 11 times for 30 yards against the Steelers earlier in the year with Green adding three carries for 27 yards. The Steelers feature the league's second-ranked run de fense by allowing just 81 yards per game, so there's a very good chance Green and Suggs will each be held under 50 yards. Considering Pittsburgh has only allowed four rushing touchdowns all year, there probably won't be a lot of fantasy value between those two backs combined. Green ran for 115 yards against the Steelers last year, but he averaged only 3.5 yards per carry in that game.
November 12, 2004
By Nate Ravitz, Matt Watson, and Mike Rainey
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Jets
Overview: Much to the dismay of Jets fans everywhere, the Quincy Carter era begins on Sunday. With Chad Pennington out at least two games with a shoulder injury, Carter takes over the reins of the Jets' version of the West Coast offense. That's significant, because Carter had not played in such an offense before joining the team in late August. Luckily for Carter, the rest of the New York offense is at full strength. On defense, safety Jon McGraw is questionable (groin), while star defensive ends John Abraham (illness) and Shaun Ellis (groin) are both probable and expected to play. Linebacker Sam Cowart will return and see 10-15 plays of action, giving the Jets another big linebacker to throw at Jamal Lewis on obvious running downs. For the Ravens, star offensive tackle Jonathan Ogden is once again questionable with his bum hamstring, as is nickel back Deion Sanders with a toe injury. Tight end Todd Heap (ankle) remains out.
Baltimore: Jamal Lewis ran for 81 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries last week in his return from a two-game suspension. He was hurt by the absence of Ogden, and there's a good chance that will be the case this week. The Jets have definitely improved their run defense this year, as they rank 11th overall and have only given up five rushing scores. However, they've allowed 100-yard rushers (Corey Dillon, Willis McGahee) in two of the last three games. The Jets are less likely to control the clock with Chad Pennington out, meaning Lewis should have no trouble getting 20+ carries and going for over 80 yards again. A big game is less likely if Ogden remains out. With one touchdown pass in the last four games and only three on the season, Kyle Boller is right at the bottom of the quarterback options every week. He ranks above only Craig Krenzel on our weekly cheat sheets, and that may not be fair to Krenzel. With Heap out, the only receiving option even marginally worth considering is Travis Taylor. With 13 receptions in the last two games, Taylor could be a respectable third receiver in leagues that reward receptions.
New York: The Jets have effectively run the ball on everyone but the Bills this season, but the Ravens present a major challenge. Baltimore has the seventh-ranked run defense in the league and is allowing just 3.5 yards per rush. With a healthy offensive line, the Jets should be able to get enough of a push for Martin to be able to grind out 70-90 yards on 20+ carries, and they're likely to give him plenty of work. The Jets have played conservatively much of the season against teams with suspect offenses, and that should be the case on Sunday. However, since Martin isn't likely to break many runs of even 10 yards, his chances of a big game aren't good. You can also expect the Ravens, who have allowed only three rushing scores all season, to really pack it in the red zone and try to force Quincy Carter to beat them. Carter threw a long TD pass to Santana Moss last week, but the defender fell down on the play. Much is made of Carter's strong arm, and indeed the Jets may take a few shots deep this week. But it's unreasonable to think that Santana Moss and Justin McCareins are somehow better fantasy options because of Carter's stronger arm, and neither is a great option against Baltimore's seventh-ranked pass defense. Moss had a big game last week, and even the week before it was clear that he was back to full speed. But neither he nor McCareins should be relied on as anything better than third receivers this week.
Kansas City Chiefs @ New Orleans Saints
Overview: This is a battle between two 3-5 teams who are both harboring playoff hopes. It's also a battle of two of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Saints rank dead last in total defense, and the Chiefs rank 25th. Both teams have explosive offenses - though the Saints haven't always looked the part this season - so this has the potential to be a shootout. In fact, the Las Vegas over/under on the game is 56.5, the highest of any game this weekend. The Chiefs are almost certain to be without Priest Holmes, who is listed as doubtful with a knee injury and hasn't practiced this week. Derrick Blaylock is expected to get the start in his place. Blaylock is actually listed as questionable with a quad injury, but he's practiced this week and his presence on the injury report appears to be nothing more than a leftover of the fact that he missed last week's game. The Chiefs have plenty of other others to worry about. Linebacker Shawn Barber was lost for the season last week, and replacement Monty Beisel is still getting over a calf injury. Cornerback Dexter McCleon (hamstring) hopes to play but probably won't be at full speed. The Saints could have a tight end problem in this game. Both Ernie Conwell (shoulder) and Boo Williams (neck) missed practice on Thursday and are listed as questionable.
Kansas City: Trent Green has thrown three touchdowns in each of the last two games, and he's averaged 336 passing yards per game over the last four. The entire Kansas City offense has been clicking the last several weeks. Priest Holmes is one of the best running backs in the NFL, but his absence won't be as pronounced against the league's worst defense. The Saints will still have to respect the run, mainly because of the Chiefs' dominant offensive line, so there will be room for Green to throw. Tony Gonzalez has back-to-back 100-yard games and has scored in three of his last four. He's the unquestioned No. 1 tight end this week with Antonio Gates on a bye. Both Johnnie Morton and Eddie Kennison are solid third options against the No. 31 pass defense in the league. Morton has been consistent all year and has scored in two straight games. Assuming that Blaylock is at full speed, and we believe he is, there are barely a handful of better options at running back this week. Blaylock already has a four-touchdown game this season, and he's bound to break some long runs once he gets to the second level. Larry Johnson should get some spot work, but he isn't worth considering unless there's a last-minute change to Blaylock's status. Johnson was ineffective in place of Holmes last week, particularly down near the goal line. The Saints have given up four 100-yard rushing games this season, rank 30th in total run defense, and are allowing 4.7 yards per rush.
New Orleans: The Saints have been inconsistent on offense this season, but against lesser defenses like the Raiders and Vikings, they've been able to pile up the points. They should do so again this week, with Deuce McAllister leading the way. McAllister's ankle is reportedly inching closer to 100 percent, and he's scored five touchdowns in the last three games. He hasn't necessarily been all that impressive in those games, but the Chiefs and their porous run defense are just what he needs to get back on track. Kansas City actually ranks a respectable 15th against the run, mainly because they're often able to force teams into shootouts. While that may happen again this week, the Saints rarely forget about McAllister, and he should be good for 25 touches in this game. Against a defense allowing 4.7 yards per rush, that should be more than enough for McAllister to top 100 yards and score at least once. Aaron Brooks has had only one truly big game this season, but this could be his second. Only the Texans have allowed more passing touchdowns than the Chiefs, who also given up a whopping 7.8 yards per pass attempt. Joe Horn will be looking to put on a show for his former team, and he's a good bet to find the end zone. Given the status of Boo Williams and Ernie Conwell, the Saints may use more three- and four-receiver sets, potentially creating more opportunities for Donte Stallworth and Jerome Pathon. Still, starting either one of those two is a desperation play .
Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys
Overview: The top and the bottom of the NFC East square off, and they actually have something in common. Both teams are coming off embarrassing road losses to AFC North teams, by nearly the same score: 27-3 at Pittsburgh for the Eagles and 26-3 at Cincinnati for the Cowboys. But that's where the similarities end. The Eagles are still the overwhelming favorite to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl (Vegas has them at 5-6, with the Seahawks second at 9-2) while the Cowboys may yet contend for the top pick in the 2005 draft. These teams split the season series last year, with each winning at home, but the Eagles have won seven of the last eight overall. Philly tight end L.J. Smith missed practice on Thursday and was downgraded to questionable. Cowboys wide receiver Quincy Morgan hopes to return from a hamstring injury but is still listed as questionable, and Bill Parcells has indicated that Morgan won't play on Monday night unless he can practice this weekend.
Philadelphia: Despite the suspicious-looking sideline stalk job of Donovan McNabb by Terrell Owens last week, all indications are that the two are still on the same page. That's good news, because this is a matchup they should be able to exploit. The Cowboys have given up 16 passing touchdowns with only four interceptions this season, partly because cornerback Terence Newman has struggled. McNabb has an interesting track record against Dallas. In his last five games against them, he's thrown three touchdown passes three times, with only one TD pass in each of the other two games. Unfortunately, all of the three-touchdown games were at home, with the other two games at Texas Stadium. Still, McNabb should produce excellent fantasy numbers this week, and the Dallas defense this season is nowhere near as good as last year's version. Terrell Owens caught 12 passes for 123 yards and two touchdowns in his last visit to Dallas in 2002, and he loves to play in the stadium where "Star-gate" occurred back in 2000. Brian Westbrook is listed as probable because of his cracked rib, but he played through the injury last week and should do so again. Westbrook had eight carries for 37 yards and a touchdown in Dallas last season. He should get something closer to 15 touches this week, though the Eagles may still be careful with him. The Cowboys rank 24th in run defense and allow 4.7 yards per rush, so we like Westbrook's chances of making a couple of big plays. However, his health status makes him a risky play. David Akers is expected to play despite missing practice Thursday with a hip flexor spasms, but owners should keep an eye on the situation this weekend just in case.
Dallas: Although the Cowboys are reeling and Vinny Testaverde threw three interceptions last week, Bill Parcells insists that he's nowhere close to pulling Testaverde for Drew Henson. We believe Parcells, and it should be safe to play Testaverde if you normally would. That said, Testaverde isn't a great play against the Eagles, who have given up only nine passing touchdowns in eight games, and have yet to give up a 300-yard passing game. The Eagles also lead the NFL in sacks with 27, and they are a good bet to force Testaverde into at least two turnovers. Keyshawn Johnson caught six passes for 83 yards against the Eagles last year, and he and tight end Jason Witten are both decent plays this week. Witten has emerged as a top five fantasy tight end. It's too bad the Cowboys can't run the ball, because the Eagles allow 4.7 yards per rush. The Cowboys may try to get Eddie George the ball a lot early in the game, but he really won't have value unless he gets around 30 carries. ReShard Lee continues to show promise when he gets the ball, but Parcells is upset with his grasp of other aspects of the game (namely pass protection), making him a poor bet to get more than the career-high six carries he got last week. That's really too bad, because Lee's vision and decisiveness would probably make him very effective against this defense.
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
Overview: The up-and-coming Texans were put in their place a bit last week in Denver, and they hope it doesn't happen again in another tough road matchup. The Colts have won all four games these teams have played, but the Texans have decreased the margin in every game (23-3, 19-3, 30-21, 20-17). The Texans will probably play this game without offensive tackle Todd Wade, who apparently returned too soon from a high ankle sprain last week. The Colts will probably be without safety Mike Doss, and cornerback Nick Harper remains questionable, as well. Starting offensive guard Rick DeMulling may also miss the game.
Houston: David Carr has been a solid, but not spectacular, fantasy performer this year, but this could be his best game yet. The Colts should score at will on the Houston defense, and the Texans don't figure to have too much trouble doing the same. Indy ranks dead last in total pass defense and has given up a league-high three 300-yard passing games so far. Carr had very little success against the Colts last season, but he was knocked out of one of the games when he was doing well. Besides, he's come a long way as a player since then. With injuries hurting an already terrible pass defense, the Colts figure to have little chance of stopping Andre Johnson. Johnson has gone three games without tallying 100 yards or scoring a touchdown, and one of those two streaks is bound to end this week, if not both. Jabar Gaffney has picked up his play the last few weeks and is worth considering as a No. 3 receiver in this terrific matchup. Domanick Davis used the Week 7 bye to get healthy and he looked as good last week as he has since Week 2, when he handled the ball 36 times and took a bit of a beating. Davis may only get 15 or so carries in this game, but he could do a lot with them, and his receptions, against a defense allowing 4.6 yards per rush. Davis got almost all of the work last week, and there's no reason to consider Jonathan Wells, despite his sometimes fine work earlier in the year.
Indianapolis: Start all of your Colts. Seriously, the only decisions to make this week are if you happen to have two of receivers or both of the tight ends and can only start one of them. Peyton Manning is on fire, and the 25th-ranked pass defense of the Texans won't be able to slow him down. Manning threw four touchdown passes with one INT in last year's two meetings, but he could match that in this game. Marvin Harrison has three 100-yard games in his four meetings with Houston. Reggie Wayne had 96 yards and two touchdowns in the home game last year. Brandon Stokley only played in the second of the two games last season, but he caught nine passes for 67 yards and a TD in that game. With Antonio Gates and Randy McMichael on a bye this week, a lot of fantasy players are looking for a tight end. Dallas Clark and Marcus Pollard are still available in a surprising number of leagues and could be good options this week. Edgerrin James rushed for over 100 yards in both of the games last season, including a 171-yard game in the season finale. The Texans have given up four 100-yard rushing games this season and are allowing 4.5 yards per rush. If the Colts can get a lead, Edge should have a huge game, and even if that doesn't happen, he's a pretty sure bet for at least 100 yards of total offense.
Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams
Overview: This is the second meeting between these teams this year, and the Seahawks would like to forget the first one in Week 5. They dominated the Rams in every facet of the game in the first half only to fall asleep and let St. Louis erase a 17-point deficit in the fourth quarter to escape with a 33-27 OT win. Both teams need this game, as the winner will be in the first place in the NFC West on Sunday night. Seattle could be without cornerback Ken Lucas, who is listed as questionable with a bruised lung. The Rams have no key injuries with the exception of spare receiver Dane Looker, who will miss this game with an ankle injury.
Seattle: The Seahawks escaped what could have been a disaster to their receiving corps last week when Darrell Jackson and Jerry Rice, who were both considered questionable with ankle injuries, were able to play. Only Jackson is listed on the injury report this week, and he's considered probable. He missed practice on Wednesday but was able to participate Thursday. Rice isn't likely to have much value in any game this season, but Jackson should be in for a nice afternoon on Sunday. In the first meeting between these teams, Jackson caught five passes for 94 yards, including a 54-yard TD in the last minute of the first half. He has caught exactly one TD pass in every game he's played against the Rams in his career. The best play on the Seattle offense is clearly Shaun Alexander. The Rams are absolutely abysmal at stopping the run, and Alexander rolled up 150 yards and a TD against them in the first game. Alexander tops our cheat sheets this week and is money in the bank to put together a huge day unless an injury would prevent him from finishing the game. Matt Hasselbeck had a solid game in the Week 5 meeting, completing 20-of-35 passes for 216 yards and two TDs. Like the rest of the Seahawks offense, he started to fizzle as the second half progressed but shouldn't have much problem moving the ball against the suspect Rams secondary. Hasselbeck has topped 200 passing yards in his last four games against the Rams and has thrown six TDs over that span.
St. Louis: Marc Bulger salvaged what could have been a disastrous outing in the first game by getting red-hot in the fourth quarter. He finished with 325 yards and three TDs but also tossed three INTs. He's thrown six TDs and six picks in three career starts against Seattle, and it's probably smart to expect another uneven performance on Sunday. Lucas' absence could help, but it's not like Bulger lit up a depleted New England secondary last week, when the Pats had to resort to using receiver Troy Brown as a nickel back. Bulger should be good for no worse than 250 yards and two TDs in this game with a couple of turnovers mixed in. The main problem with the Rams' passing attack is that their offensive line is performing at a below-average level right now. They aren't giving Bulger time to go through his progressions, and that's a big reason why they were unable to take advantage of the Pats' weak secondary in the last game. The Rams' O-line will catch a break this week with Grant Wistrom still listed as doubtful with a small fracture in his knee and fellow defensive end Chike Okeafor questionable with a neck injury. If Bulger gets time to throw, he'll hit Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce for some big plays even though neither player has a great track record against Seattle. Marshall Faulk had a big game against Seattle in Week 7 of the 2002 season but hasn't done much against them since then (one TD and 180 yards in four games). Seattle ranks fifth in the NFL against the run, and since you can never count on the Rams to give Faulk 20-25 carries, it would be wise to count on him for between 50 and 60 yards and perhaps a TD, but no more.
New York Giants @ Arizona Cardinals
Overview: The Giants were one of the surprises of the early part of the season, but they've now lost two of their last three games, both at home against ordinary competition (Detroit and Chicago). The Cardinals, meanwhile, have won three of their last five games, which is pretty much reason enough for a parade through downtown Phoenix. These teams used to be division rivals in the old NFC East but this marks their first meeting since September of 2002. The Giants will be playing this game without their two starting defensive ends, as Michael Strahan and Keith Washington both suffered season-ending injuries last week. They could also be without backup running back Mike Cloud, who had done a nice job in short-yardage situations recently. Cloud is listed as questionable with a back injury and would be replaced with the ineffective Ron Dayne.
New York: Things are unraveling at the seams for the Giants offense. Kurt Warner is starting to look like the 2002 and 2003 version of himself lately, as he's been serving up more turnovers than grandma at a bake-off. Warner threw two picks and fumbled twice last week, and a quarterback controversy is starting to brew. In the last three games, Warner has been sacked 18 times, and his struggles will allow the Cardinals to focus heavily on stopping Tiki Barber and the running game. Barber will find a way to be productive against the Cardinals regardless of the struggles of the passing game. He ranks second on our cheat sheets this week and should be able to extend his TD streak to seven games. Since the Giants run so many screen passes to Barber, it would take a monumental defensive effort by Arizona to keep him under 100 all-purpose yards and out of the end zone. The Cardinals have yielded nine rushing plays of over 20 yards this season, which is the most in the league. Because of Warner's poor play the past two weeks, none of the Giants receivers have much value. Amani Toomer has been a big disappointment all season and can't be counted on at this point. Jeremy Shockey continues to be the number one target in the red zone and should be good for his usual five to six catches and 50 to 70 yards. Shockey will bust out for a 100-yard effort one of these weeks, but there's no way to know when that game might occur.
Arizona: The Cardinals will likely look to take advantage of the loss of Strahan and Washington by running the ball consistently. Emmitt Smith should get plenty of work in this game and could flirt with 100 yards. Smith has scored in all but two games this season and is going up against a defense that ranks 20th against the run and is allowing 4.5 yards per carry. Those mediocre numbers were compiled with Strahan and Washington in the lineup. Larry Fitzgerald wasn't happy about being shut out of the passing game in Week 8, so rather than sulk he went out and posted the second-best game of his rookie year against the Dolphins last week by grabbing five balls for 92 yards and a TD. Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin wouldn't seem to be good plays against the 10th ranked pass defense in the league, but keep in mind that Strahan's absence will have a trickle-down effect to the secondary. If the Giants can't muster a consistent pass rush on Josh McCown, he's going to be able to find an open man eventually. Boldin and Fitzgerald are both very difficult to cover and don't need much time to get open. McCown could be in line for one of his better outings of the season, though his numbers will be no better than ordinary if the Cardinals do as expected and stick to a run-heavy game plan. This would be a good week to play the Arizona defense. They are tied for second in the NFL with 20 takeaways and lead the league with 11 fumble recoveries. Warner has put the ball on the ground 12 times in eight games this year and can be counted for at least a couple fumbles in this game.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Atlanta Falcons
Overview: Last season these teams split their two meetings with each winning on the other's home field. The Falcons are a hard team to figure, and not just because they're a surprising 6-2. They got torched 56-10 in Week 7 by the Chiefs, allowing them to rush for 271 yards and an NFL record eight touchdowns, then bounced back and beat the Broncos 41-28 in Denver while holding the league's second-best rushing attack to 68 yards on 19 carries. It's anybody's guess as to which team will show up this week against a 3-5 Bucs team that is much more formidable since Brian Griese took over as the starting quarterback.
Tampa Bay: Griese has been brilliant from the minute in stepped on to the field in relief of Chris Simms in Week 5 at New Orleans. He's posted a passer rating of over 100 in three of his four games and was at 94.4 in the other. Griese should continue to post terrific numbers against the league's 30th-ranked passing defense. The Falcons are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete over 66 percent of their passes, and Griese has connected on exactly 69 percent of his throws thus far. If nothing else, Griese should be efficient in this game, and he ranks just outside the top 10 on our cheat sheets. Michael Pittman had a terrific game last week against the Chiefs. He's going against the league's sixth-ranked run defense, one that has been pretty tough to run against for every team but Kansas City. The Falcons are still allowing under 100 rushing yards a game, and while they did allow those eight rushing TDs against the Chiefs, they've only allowed four in their other seven contests. Pittman could post decent totals if the Bucs give him 20-25 carries in an effort to wear down the Falcons' defensive line, but otherwise you have to believe that he won't emerge from this game with much value. Michael Clayton is a stud and Griese will be looking his way often. Clayton is the best playmaker in the Tampa Bay receiving corps, and the Bucs might try to throw to him deep a few times to keep the defense honest and open things up underneath for their other receivers and Pittman. Martin Gramatica is expected to play through his hip flexor on Sunday, despite the fact that he's listed as questionable on the injury report.
Atlanta: Michael Vick is coming off what may be the best game of his career, as he was the first player to throw for over 250 yards and rush for over 100 in a single game against the Broncos in Week 8. The Falcons and Vick's fantasy owners are hoping he builds off that game and takes off in the second half. He'll have his work cut out for him on Sunday against the fourth-ranked pass defense in the NFL. The Bucs did allow Trent Green to throw for 369 yards and three TDs against them last week, but Green is lighting everyone up these days. Vick could easily revert back to his form of Week's 1-7 and probably won't top 200 passing yards against Tampa Bay's solid secondary. Warrick Dunn and T.J. Duckett each scored against the Broncos two weeks ago, but neither did much else on the ground in that game. Duckett has clearly been more effective running the ball than Dunn in the limited opportunities he's received. Dunn has scored seven TDs in eight games this season, and for that reason alone he's worthy of consideration. He's still expected to get a majority of the carries but could lose more touches to Duckett if his struggles continue. Dunn has only averaged 2.8 yards per carry in his last four games. The Bucs rank 16th in the NFL against the run, and it's worth pointing out that their defensive line is pretty banged up. Damian Gregory and Ellis Wyms have already endured season-ending injuries, and starting defensive tackle Anthony McFarland is questionable for Sunday with a triceps injury he suffered last week. Alge Crumpler remains an elite play at tight end. Peerless Price scored on two nice receptions in Week 8 but has never scored in three career games against Tampa Bay.
Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers
Overview: The Packers could overtake the Vikings for first place in the NFC Central with a win on Sunday. After a 1-4 start to the season, the Packers won their final three games of the first half before a much-needed bye. The Vikings have lost two in a row and clearly aren't the same team without Randy Moss, who has been ruled out of this game with his balky hamstring. Earlier in the week Mewelde Moore looked likely to return from his sprained ankle after missing Monday's game in Indy, but he didn't practice on Thursday and his status is now in doubt. The Packers list free safety Darren Sharper as questionable with an injured left knee, but he practiced on Thursday and reported no problems. It looks like Sharper will be able to play.
Minnesota: Daunte Culpepper is going up against a questionable Packers secondary that he should be able to exploit. Green Bay is 19th against the pass this season, and Culpepper threw five TD passes in two games against them last year. However, Culpepper has averaged under 200 passing yards per game since Moss got injured, and he's yet to turn in a multi-TD pass performance without No. 84. The Vikings still have enough weapons for Culpepper to have a big day, but they'll need more consistency from Marcus Robinson and Nate Burleson. Both players have had their moments this season but both have been non-factors far too frequently. While either one is capable of popping up and having a big game, there's no way to know which one. Both Robinson and Burleson are risky plays with high upside. Culpepper could post his best numbers yet without Moss in the lineup simply because the Packers have an awful secondary. Onterrio Smith will get the start at running back whether or not Moore plays. He can't be counted on for a great day on the ground with Moss out and Grady Jackson now healthy and anchoring the interior of the Packers' defensive line, but Smith is such a big part of the Minnesota passing game that he should emerge with plenty of all-purpose yardage. Michael Bennett's workload will increase if Moore doesn't play, but there's no reason to give him fantasy consideration based on his limited playing time this season. Jermaine Wiggins is quietly posting a nice se ason and comes in at No. 7 on our tight end cheat sheets this week. He could easily match his totals of five receptions and 63 yards from Week 9.
Green Bay: Brett Favre should have an absolute field day picking apart the Vikings secondary. Last season, Favre threw four picks in Week 1 against Minnesota and then bounced back to throw three TDs and post a 105.4 passer rating in Week 9. The Packers will likely use a lot of three and four-receiver sets to spread the Vikings out and create some matchup problems. Favre is a terrific play at home against a dome team that ranks 29th in the NFL at defending the pass and doesn't have a history of playing well in the elements at this time of year. Ahman Green could also be in line for a big day against a run defense that is allowing 4.7 yards per carry. He's scored four TDs in his last two games and needed last week's bye to help his Achilles injury heal. Green rushed for 53 yards and two TDs against the Vikings in Week 1 last season and then dropped 137 yards on them in the rematch. He also had 114 combined receiving yards and a TD against them in those two contests. Green should be healthier than he's been at any time since early in the season and is in line for a big game on Sunday. Javon Walker caught three TD passes in the two meetings with the Vikings last season and should be good for at least one in this game. Ironically, Favre, Green, and Walker all rank third on our cheat sheets at their respective positions for Week 10. Donald Driver had big games in Week's 5 and 6 but has been pretty pedestrian in his other six outings. With the exception of Week 11 of the 2002 season, his track record against the Vikings isn't good. But he still has plenty of upside in this favorable matchup.
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots
Overview: The Patriots have beaten the Bills six of the last seven times they've played, including a 31-17 win at Buffalo in Week 4. That game was tied entering the fourth quarter, and the Bills hope to use their solid defense and improved running game to at least be competitive in this one. After seeing their 21-game winning streak come to an end in Pittsburgh two weeks ago, the Patriots got back on track last week by scoring a 40-22 win at St. Louis with a secondary so banged up that Troy Brown had to be used as a nickel back at times. The Pats hope to have cornerback Asante Samuel back for this game after he injured his shoulder in the first quarter last week. They could also have receiver Deion Branch back in the mix for the first time since Week 2. Branch is officially listed as questionable, but head coach Bill Belichick said he's making good progress. The Bills won't have the services of top cornerback Troy Vincent again in this game. Vincent has all but ruled himself out because he's still not fully recovered from knee surgery.
Buffalo: Aside from Willis McGahee and Eric Moulds, nobody on the Bills is a particularly great play at any time. McGahee didn't see a single touch when these teams met in Week 4 since Travis Henry was still the team's starter at that time. Henry actually had his best performance of the year in that game, rushing for 98 yards on 24 carries. As highly-regarded as the Patriots defense is, they aren't particularly stout against the run. The Pats rank 22nd in the league and are allowing 4.3 yards per carry, although they've only yielded five rushing TDs. McGahee has topped 100 yards in each of this three starts thus far, but he's averaged only 3.7 YPC in those games. Given the fact that Drew Bledsoe is a shell of his former self and the Bills rank 27th in the NFL in passing offense, you can bet the Patriots will see a steady diet of McGahee on Sunday. Even if his average isn't good, McGahee should still do no worse than approach 100 yards. Bledsoe is nothing more than injury or bye-week filler and ranks 18th on our cheat sheets this week between Joey Harrington and Vinny Testaverde, which tells you a lot about where his stock lies right now. He threw for a season-high 247 yards in Week 4 against his former team. Moulds has scored in half of his games this season and is usually good for 80 yards each week. His best game of the year was in the Week 4 meeting when he caught 10 passes for 126 yards and a TD. Rookie Lee Evans is starting to show signs of breaking out. He also turned in his best game of the season in the first game with the Pats, catching four passes for 93 yards. Last week against the Jets, Evans pulled down five passes for 64 yards and a TD. He has big-play ability and already has three catches of over 40 yards this season. He'll flirt with the 100-yard mark a time or two before the season is out, but it likely won't happen this week.
New England: The Bills rank fourth against the run and third against the pass so this isn't a favorable matchup for any of New England's key players. However, they racked up nearly 400 yards of total offense in the first game and can be expected to move the ball fairly well on Sunday. Tom Brady threw for 298 yards and two TDs in the first meeting and should post his usual solid numbers. He's posted a passer rating of over 100 in four of his last five games against the Bills. Brady's favorite target of late has been David Givens, who has reached triple-digits in receiving yards for three straight weeks. Givens had 86 yards on three receptions in the Week 4 meeting, while David Patten had his best game of the year in that contest with five receptions for 113 yards and a TD. Both should post respectable totals in the rematch. Corey Dillon rushed for 79 yards and a TD on 19 carries in the first game and is coming off a terrific performance against the Rams. Those 79 yards actually represent Dillon's lowest total of the season, which indicates just how good he's been. Given that fact you can't go wrong with him in your lineup, even against Buffalo's excellent front seven. If you're wondering why Daniel Graham has been so quiet lately, the Boston Herald reported that it's because he's been helping new right tackle Brandon Gorin as a blocker instead of running as many receiving routes as usual.
Carolina Panthers @ San Francisco 49ers
Overview: Not many teams have been hit as hard by injuries as the Panthers this year. Things could still get worse, as there's now talk that Stephen Davis will be placed on the IR due to his balky knee. In the short-term, he's still listed as questionable, but it's looking more and more likely that he'll miss his seventh game of the season. With only two wins between these two teams, the real winner may actually be the team that loses -- they will then be one step closer to having the top pick of next year's draft.
Carolina: Davis practiced on Wednesday but couldn't go on Thursday. While it's at least possible that he'll suit up on Sunday, there's no reason to think that he would be given a heavy workload if he did. He still has a cartilage problem in his knee that surgery earlier in the year was supposed to correct, and it's been nearly impossible for him to practice or play without a great deal of swelling. With Brad Hoover also questionable (back), undrafted free agent Joey Harris could get the bulk of the work. The Niners rank 25th against the run, but they give up just 3.9 yards per carry. Stay away from all Carolina running backs this week. Jake Delhomme came through with a lot of fantasy points last week (299 yards, three TDs, no INTs), but his accuracy was off for much of the game. The Niners have given up 14 TDs with just three INTs -- that's one of the worst ratios in the league. Without the benefit of a reliable running game, Delhomme will likely throw enough passes to approach 300 yards, perhaps even topping that if he boosts his completion percentage above 60% for the first time in five games. Muhsin Muhammad has 16 catches for 200 yards and two touchdowns in his last two games. He's been too inconsistent for much of the year to use him as anything but a No. 3 fantasy receiver, but he does have nice upside this week. The same can be said for Keary Colbert, who leads all rookies by averaging nearly 17 yards per catch.
San Francisco: Fantasy owners have probably been scared off by his injuries, but Tim Rattay has been outstanding in the games that he's played this year. With nine TDs and four INTs in five games, he's posted a 92.9 QB rating. He's thrown two TDs in four out of five starts and has completed a hefty 64.6% of his passes. It's important to constantly monitor his health, but he reported no problems after returning from a one-game absence last week. Carolina has allowed a league-low four passing touchdowns, but that's in part because they've allowed a league-high 13 rushing scores. They've collected just 11 sacks on the year, which suggests that Rattay should have plenty of time to find his receivers. Tight end Eric Johnson is tied for second in the league with 51 receptions, but his production has slowed down lately as Brandon Lloyd has stepped up to become Rattay's go-to target. Lloyd has scored in three of the past four games and is a borderline No. 2 fantasy starter. Curtis Conway and Cedrick Wilson have taken turns stepping up this year, but neither player has topped 60 yards since Week 2. Dennis Erickson indicated that rookie Rashaun Woods would see about 15-20 plays this week in three- and four-receiver sets. It's taken Woods this long to get involved with the offense because he was slowed in training camp and into the regular season with lingering hamstring injuries. Kevan Barlow continues to post ugly yards-per-carry averages, but he has scored twice in the past three games. This is a potentially good matchup for him: the Panthers rank 29th against the run by allowing 142.1 yards per game, and they lack the type of offense that will force the Niners to abandon the run. Expecting Barlow to post his second 100-yard game of the season would be a bit optimistic, but 80 yards and a TD should be within reach. If you've already relegated Barlow to your bench because of his struggles, this is the matchup to give him a another chance.
Chicago Bears @ Tennessee Titans
Overview: The Titans must be considered one of this season's biggest disappointments. Instead of contending for a division title, they're stuck two games under .500 with half of their schedule in the books. If they even want to pretend they have playoff aspirations the rest of the way, they need a win Sunday against the very beatable Chicago Bears. After sitting out Week 8 and resting during last week's bye, Steve McNair returned to practice on Wednesday only to discover his injury hasn't gotten much better. He's still listed as questionable and will likely be a game-time decision. The Bears have a bit of momentum with two consecutive wins, but no one expects them to step up and make a playoff run in the second half. Their offense has been too inconsistent, though their defense has been impressive at times. Thomas Jones returned to practice this week but is still questionable due to his injured toe.
Chicago: Despite ugly box scores that would make a blind man cringe, Craig Krenzel has won each of his first two starts. He's lived off the big play: over a quarter of his yards and both of his touchdowns have come on two long passes the past two weeks. Aside from that, he's completed less than half of his passes and just may be the worst fantasy quarterback in the game. Tennessee ranks just 20th in pass defense, but Krenzel isn't equipped to take advantage. He's nursing an undisclosed injury to his left side but is probable for Sunday's game. David Terrell caught four balls for 70 yards last week, but before that had just two catches and 24 yards in his previous three games combined. Even though he returned to practice this week, Jones is clearly affected by his injured toe. He's questionable on the injury report and could very well miss his second start in a row. Jones injured himself on his first carry in Week 7, allowing Anthony Thomas to average 26.5 carries and 104 yards over the last two games. Though the Titans are giving up just 108.4 yards per game, they're also giving up a hefty 4.6 yards per carry. If Thomas starts, he's a threat to top 100 yards. If Jones starts, he'll likely share at least some carries with Thomas and be a mediocre option.
Tennessee: Chris Brown entered Week 8 with a case of turf toe but still managed to post a season-high 32 carries for 147 yards. After resting during the team's bye last week, Brown no longer wears the protective boot over his injured toe. He's still considered questionable for Sunday's game, but it would be a surprise if he doesn't play. Chicago's strength this year has been the play of their defensive line, but they still rank just 23rd against the run by giving up over 120 yards per game. Despite injuries to their secondary, Chicago ranks second in the league by allowing a paltry 54.3 completion percentage and among the top third with 21 sacks. Whether it's McNair or Billy Volek, Tennessee's QB will be pressured. McNair has earned kudos in the past for being a tough player who starts despite injuries, but he's already admitted that his current ailment simply won't get any better without ample rest. Don't be surprised if he sits this one out. Derrick Mason leads the league with 52 catches and has averaged more than nine catches in each of the three games that Volek has seen extensive action. He's only scored twice this year but is a quality option simply due to his sheer volume of opportunities. Drew Bennett looked like a solid complement to Mason earlier this year, but he's been held to just one catch over the past two games.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Washington Redskins
Overview: These two teams haven't played since 1991, and they haven't played in D.C. since 1985. Still, this game is a reunion of sorts for Marvin Lewis, who served as Washington's defensive coordinator and assistant head coach in 2002 before landing his first head coaching job with Cincinnati in 2003. While the Redskins enter the game with the league's top-ranked defense, Lewis' current team ranks just 28th. Unfortunately for the Bengals, they enter this tough matchup with their best offensive lineman, Willie Anderson, questionable with a knee injury. Redskins defensive end Phillip Daniels and kicker John Hall are out with groin injuries, and LaVar Arrington remains sidelined following knee surgery.
Cincinnati: One of the reasons the Bengals like Carson Palmer so much is because of his arm strength. He's flexed his passing arm in recent weeks, as he's thrown a 50+ yard pass in each of the past three games. He's only thrown six touchdowns compared to 10 interceptions on the year, but he's thrown two scores and two picks over his last three games. The Bengals expect him to continue improving in the second half, though he has a tough matchup going against the league's fifth-ranked pass defense. It would help if he could squeeze more production out of Chad Johnson, a great deep threat whose yards-per-catch average has actually fallen from 15.1 in 2003 to 14.2 this season. Johnson scored five times in his first eight games last year but has just two scores so far this season. That said, both scores have come from at least 50 yards out, so he does occasionally take advantage of Palmer's arm. With Peter Warrick on the IR, T.J. Houshmandzadeh has the potential to become a valuable possession receiver for the Bengals but has been incredibly inconsistent to date. Despite coming through with a 76-yard TD-reception last week, tight end Matt Schobel is hardly a viable fantasy option right now -- though he has plenty of talent if he ever gets integrated into the club's regular offense. The Redskins have allowed a league-low 3.1 yards per carry, not to mention the league's third-fewest rushing yards per game (84). This is a horrible matchup for Rudi Johnson, and there are at least 20 other running backs that should post better fantasy stats th is weekend.
Washington: Entering halftime in Detroit last week, Clinton Portis had run the ball 16 times for 80 yards while Mark Brunell had completed just 5-of-15 passes for 50 yards. Realizing that his best chance to win was to keep the ball in the hands of his best player, Joe Gibbs let Portis run 18 more times (for 66 yards) after the break, not to mention throw a 15-yard touchdown on a trick play. Brunell, on the other hand, threw just twice (for one eight-yard completion) after halftime. That's a curious ratio considering Detroit is usually stout against the run and weak against the pass, but Gibbs realized that his team's aerial attack is simply too weak to scare even a bad pass defense. Cincinnati enters this contest with the league's worst run defense, so there should be no doubting what Gibbs intends to do. Expect another 30+ carries for Portis as he takes advantage of a team giving up 4.5 yards per carry and 149.6 yards per game. And just like he's done three times in his last four games, Brunell could easily fail to break even 100 passing yards on the day. As such, all of Washington's receivers are questionable fantasy plays, including Laveranues Coles, who scored for the first time this year when he caught Portis' TD-pass last week.
Detroit Lions @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Overview: Following a two-game slide which evened their record at 4-4, the Lions go back on the road this weekend. They have a chance to get back above .500, though, as three of their four wins this year have come away from Ford Field. Plus, it helps that Jacksonville will be without their field general -- Byron Leftwich will miss his first game of the season because of an injured knee. Leftwich has been a clutch performer all year -- he's helped guide the team to three victories this season in which his team was losing entering the final minute of regulation. David Garrard used last week's bye to prepare for his first start of the season, but it remains to be seen just how well he can fill Leftwich's shoes. These teams haven't played since 1998, but Fred Taylor has fond memories as he carried the Jags to a 37-22 victory by running for 183 yards.
Detroit: Roy Williams has missed two of the past four games with a sprained ankle and has been hampered in the two games that he did play. He's been able to practice more on the ankle this week, though, and is no longer listed on the injury report. Joey Harrington will be relieved if Williams is close to 100% on Sunday. Harrington has completed less than 60% of his passes in each of the team's four losses this year but has topped that mark in three of their wins. Luckily for Detroit fans, the Jaguars have allowed a hefty 66.3 completion percentage, the second-highest in the league. And while the Jags rank in the middle of the pack by allowing 11 paaing TDs in eight games, they have the league's second-lowest INT total with only three. Williams has been inconsistent of late because of his injury, but this is a good matchup for both he and Harrington. Az Hakim has missed practice this week and is questionable because of injuries to his hip, back, and ribs. He's stepped up the past couple of weeks by averaging 105 yards, but his body has paid the price. Beyond Williams and Hakim, there's no receivers worth thinking about on this team. Detroit has featured the league's worst rushing attack -- both in terms of yards per game (75) and per carry (3.2). Steve Mariucci intends to run the ball more often in the second half of the season, much to rookie Kevin Jones' delight. Jones hasn't carried the ball more than 13 times in a game since Week 1, but he was happy to see that Mariucci included more running plays than usual in practice this week. That said, the Jags have featured one of the better run defenses in the league by allowing just 3.8 yards per carry this year. Even if Jones gets more work than usual, it's difficult to predict he'll finish with much more than 60 yards.
Jacksonville: Garrard played well in the preseason, but he hasn't started a game since 2002 and has played very sparingly over his short NFL career. Even though Detroit's pass defense ranks in the league's bottom third, don't expect Garrard to be given the chance to light up the secondary. Instead, Jack Del Rio will likely focus on the run, just like he's promised to do more often in the second half of the season. Jimmy Smith is too good to take out of your starting lineup, but he's now nothing more than a solid No. 2 fantasy receiver instead of a borderline No. 1. Troy Edwards was a low-ceiling option with Leftwich in the lineup, but he can't possibly be an option until Garrard proves what he can do. Tight end George Wrighster has missed the past four games with a bulging disk in his back and is considered doubtful for this weekend. Fred Taylor carried only three times in Week 8 before going down with a hip pointer, but after resting during the team's bye-week he's ready for a full load. Detroit ranks fourth by allowing just 3.5 yards per carry, though, so Taylor may need 25+ carries to top the century mark. The Lions have allowed only one 100-yard rusher this year, and that was last week. But while Clinton Portis finished with a gaudy 147 yards, it took him 34 attempts to get there.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns
Overview: The Steelers and Brown meet up for the 105th time in the AFC's oldest rivalry. The Steelers have dominated this series in recent years by winning 13 of the past 16, including once earlier this season in Pittsburgh. After knocking off undefeated teams in recent weeks, the Steelers are now widely regarded as the hottest team in football. The 3-5 Browns, on the other hand, are losers of two straight and simply trying to get back to the right side of .500.
Pittsburgh: Ben Roethlisberger faced the Browns in his third start of the year. He threw just one TD with one INT, but it was still one of his better games. His 231 yards, 11 yards per attempt and 76.2 completion percentage are still high marks on the season. He's gotten even better in recent weeks, throwing six TDs with just one INT in his last three games. Pittsburgh's run-based offense doesn't require Roethlisberger to top 200 yards, but he's evolving into a pretty solid fantasy option. Maybe he's not a starter in most weeks, but he's definitely one of the better backups, especially when he's going up against the Browns, whose pass defense ranks 22nd. Plaxico Burress caught six balls for 136 yards and a TD against the Browns earlier in the year. He's tallied at least 60 yards in all but one of Roethlisberger's starts -- and the one time he didn't he countered by scoring a TD. He's had more than three receptions in a game just twice this year, but he's made the most of it by averaging 20.4 yards per catch. Given his latest performance against Cleveland and his track record working with Roethlisberger, we'll forgive Burress for being held under 20 yards both times he faced the Browns in 2003. Hines Ward has at least six reception in four of his last six games against Cleveland, but since 2000 he's scored just one TD with one 100-yard game against them. He had six catches for 61 yards against them earlier in the year, and that seems like a good starting point this weekend. Duce Staley has not practiced this week because of his hamstring injury. He's listed as questionable and very well could miss his second game in a row. If that happens, the Steelers will be without any reliable receiv ers in the backfield as third-down back Verron Hayes has already been ruled out with his hamstring injury. Granted, the Steelers have rarely thrown to their backs this year, but their absence would take away the possibility completely. Jerome Bettis is a capable replacement running the ball even though he managed all of 34 yards (and a TD) on 14 carries against the Browns earlier in the year. He's had significant carries the past two weeks and has averaged 4.4 yards per carry. He carried just three times the first time the Steelers faced the Browns last year, but he carried 24 times for 93 yards in the second game. Willie Parker should see some action spelling Bettis if Staley and Haynes are out.
Cleveland: The Browns will be short-handed at wide receiver this weekend as Andre Davis (turf toe) and Andre King (sprained ankle) have already been ruled out. Newcomer Antonio Bryant will likely join Dennis Northcutt in the starting lineup. Bryant has combined for just six catches and 69 yards in his two games with the team, but hopefully he's had enough time to learn the offense. The Steelers are one of five teams with more INTs (9) than TDs allowed (7). Plus, they rank among the leaders by holding the opposition to a 55.5 completion percentage. Jeff Garcia is usually an accurate passer, but the first time he faced the Steelers he completed just 47.1% of his passes. He's been good for at least one TD in six out of eight games this year, but he may not come through this week against the league's sixth-ranked pass defense given the injuries to his receivers. Expect tight ends Aaron Shea and Steve Heiden to be more active, though not enough to be viable fantasy plays. William Green and Lee Suggs continue to share time. Butch Davis wants to give each player equal carries, but if one of the two gets hot Davis will ride the hot hand. Suggs carried 11 times for 30 yards against the Steelers earlier in the year with Green adding three carries for 27 yards. The Steelers feature the league's second-ranked run de fense by allowing just 81 yards per game, so there's a very good chance Green and Suggs will each be held under 50 yards. Considering Pittsburgh has only allowed four rushing touchdowns all year, there probably won't be a lot of fantasy value between those two backs combined. Green ran for 115 yards against the Steelers last year, but he averaged only 3.5 yards per carry in that game.