Ville-TCU Wednesday Night

[Nigel Tufnel]

Well, as of right now, according to another sports info site...this line is moving against the public action. As of 1:30 p.m., about 62% of the money was coming in on the Ville, but the lines at a lot of sites have dropped from -24.5 to -24.

Is this a good sign for a TCU +24 wager? Like someone else said on this forum...the later in the season and the bigger these games get...taking a lot of points isn't always a bad thing. I'd like to stay away from a side and take a total...but I've seen good info for both the over and under...maybe a no play.

Talk about getting screwed last night...I LOVED Toledo last night. I was going to take them BIG! But I had a conference with my bosses from 6:30 p.m. until 8:15 p.m. and couldn't get the bet placed....and sure enough, Toledo rolls. Hope that isn't a bad beat that will turn my luck towards the worse. I kept looking at my watch....I just couldn't get myself to ask them if I could go to my office and call my "wife" for a second.

[dead garcia]

sorry you missed out on the Rockets last night....sounds like you have a problem prioritizing....lol

[Nigel Tufnel]

Yeah....I was being invited to be a partner at my office...just didn't seem to be the right time to ask if I could use the phone because Toledo was Chris' GOY.

Its funny though....my priorities are in the right place (I guess..lol), but I couldn't help thinking that my bosses cost me a couple hundred dollars! Maybe I should ask them for a reimbursement....ah....no.

Any thoughts on tonights game, dead? I have a feeling that you are more than overdue to hit a white hot streak here as the season ends. Its funny...normally I think as the season goes on, the lines get sharper and the capping gets more difficult. This year, as the season has progressed, it seems like the cappers are getting sharper and taking advantage of the lines.

Hope that results in a BIG, BIG bowl season!

[dead garcia]

I just cant get a real feel for this game and it has been bothering me all day....I have loved Louey all year but my gut tells me they dont cover tonight....my capping is leaning that way too but I must tell you I will not lay on tcu tonight....being afraid of the back door is a cowards way to cap as far as I am concerned....I am not one to have a problem laying big chalk and often do with little worry of the back door but I have been back doored 5 times this year in the last 3 minutes of a game where I have layed 17 or more points....twice with less than a minute to go....I cant help think Louey will have this game well in hand and they will sit Lefors and much of the starting defense and TCU comes out and throws a td or two on the board in the fourth and covers by a pubic hair....probably decide what to do around 7:25 tonight....

[Nigel Tufnel]

Thanks, Dead. Yeah...I'm in the same boat as you...I'm having a hard time with this one....which makes it SO much more frustrating that I liked Toledo last night without hesitation. This one will either be a small play or a no play for me tonight. What's the sense in getting down early in the week on a game I'm not sure of (I would definitely be playing if I had hit last night and wouldn't have to worry about getting down), when there are a lot of good looking games Thursday through Saturday?

I'll come a lookin' around 7:15 tonight to see what you think and see what the line has done.

On first glance at this weekend's plays...Wisky kind of sticks out at me. They have been fairly strong ATS this year, and I'm a little worried about a let down going into the big season finale @ Iowa. But everything I've read about this team leads me to believe that Alvarez is doing a WONDERFUL job keeping these guys focused on one game at a time. Every time a player is interviewed about the post season scenarios, all they say...all of them, is "one and oh...one and oh." I like that mentality.

I think Wisky has the ability to be a major BCS spoiler this year...in that what happens if USC, OU, Auburn and Wisky go undefeated? I actually hope it happens...I'm ready for a play off.

[acefrehley24]

Nigel,


Just wanted to thank you for paraphrasing me.


Now take the 24 1/2 and be happy!



BOL to you!!

:thumbs:

[Nigel Tufnel]

It was you, indeed Ace...thanks. Sorry to not give you credit...just too lazy to go back and find out that those were your words of wisdom.

GL tonight!

[ddoc12]

Nigel, a little home town info on the Badgers from a former Badger letter winner here in Wisconsin. First of all, the constant "1-0" routine that the Badgers trot out week after week is genuine. I'm not sure that everyone else in the country believes it but Wisconsin's number one goal each season is to get to the Rose Bowl. Because of the style of play that Alvarez is fond of, Wisconsin will never be the poll favorites of the flashier schools. Alvarez understands that and his players buy into that. While Wisconsin and Alvarez would like to win a national title just as much as everyone else, that goal does not consume Wisconsin and Alvarez like it might say a USC or Oklahoma.

The one constant you're going to get out of his good teams is four quarters of high effort. They have a few more skilled defenders this year, particularly on the DL, and that is a bit unusual for a Wisconsin team. Combine that with their work ethic, a little bit of early season fortune and a high level of confidence and it's easy to like Wisconsin to run the table.

This week, with Stanton injured, Michigan State isn't going to have the offense to test Wisconsin's defense. Like last week, I think Wisconsin rolls.

As an aside, I don't have any feeling about tonight's game either. I believe it's a no play for me tonight. After watching Louisville's defense last week, only a fool could consider that team in the top 20 in the country. And as for LeFors, I believe they utilize Brohm for some series under normal circumstances although they didn't last week against Memphis. I can't imagine TCU keeps this close enough to keep Brohm on the sidelines all game again, but a QB shuffle always makes me a bit leery to lay the chalk.

GL if you do play it.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Thanks for the info, doc. I, too, believe the "1-0" motto is genuine. I'm a Buckeye fan....but I went to Madison last year and had a great time...the fans were nice to me (other OSU fans had worse experiences)...since then, I've kind of liked Wisky. Their team this year reminds me of the OSU National Championship team...but this Wisky team might be even better.

If Stanton is out again this weekend, I will not hesitate to lay anything under 10 points. GL to your Badgaz this year....I am rooting for them now that OSU is out of contention. Wisky's D, plain and simple, is nasty. I wouldn't want to play them in a bowl this year. Hope they win out and go wherever they go, and win.

Too bad Wisky doesn't play Meatchicken this year. While Michigan is the thorn in every Big 10 team's side year in and year out, it is this guy's opinion that Wisky would beat them like red headed step children this year...could be wrong...but I would put my money on Wisky against Meatchicken this year.

[acefrehley24]

Nigel,


No problem at all. I read your post and was like "man that sounds familiar. Did I say that?"


Reviewed my post and I DID say that.


Not very often I say something that makes sense. LOL


GL on what you decide to play!

[Pitt37]

GL Bro!!!

Game has me pondering my decision right now as well!!

But I know I will have somehting I like!!!

[ddoc12]

Well Nigel, I would have no problems if they won out. I went to the Rose Bowl in 1999 when they upset UCLA and it was madness. I'd have no problems going again.

Unfortunately though, despite being a Badger fan, I don't think they'd handle Michigan as easily as you suggest. They've had pretty good success with Michigan lately since they basically just line up and hammer you until you don't fight back. Which is pretty much the way Michigan plays. Their games with Michigan are always close and while I think they'd stand a pretty good chance to win, it definitely would be close. I wish the Big Ten schedule would start allowing Wisconsin to miss games against lesser teams like Northwestern and Indiana more frequently than they do against Michigan and Ohio State.

With respect to the line, I'm right with you. Anything under 10 is a play on Wisconsin if Stanton is sidelined.

GL with your plays.