coreyschucky
11-09-2004, 07:23 PM
From CBSSPORTSLINE.COM
Pacific-10 Conference preview
By Gregg Doyel
SportsLine.com Senior Writer
Stock Chart
Team Stock
1. Arizona
2. Washington
3. UCLA
4. Stanford
5. Oregon State
6. Oregon
7. Arizona State
8. Southern California
9. Washington State
10. California
Those are no misprints. We're predicting UCLA to finish ahead of Stanford in the Pac-10 -- and we're projecting Oregon State ahead of Oregon.
We know, we know, UCLA won just 11 games last season. We know, we know, Stanford won 30 -- and made a run at the first perfect season since Indiana did it in 1976.
Here's what else we know:
* While UCLA lost two good players in T.J. Cummings and Trevor Ariza, their baggage-to-production ratio wasn't good. Meanwhile, the Bruins brought in the best recruiting class in the Pac-10 and should make a leap in year two under coach Ben Howland.
* Stanford? The Cardinal lost their top three scorers -- All-American Josh Childress and two nationally underrated players, guard Matt Lottich and forward Justin Davis. That's nearly 40 points, 17 rebounds and eight assists to replace, and Stanford will be doing so without a great recruiting class but with a new coach, Trent Johnson.
Oregon State over Oregon? Why not? Oregon (18-13, 9-9 last season) lost All-American Luke Jackson as well as double-figure scorers Andre Joseph and James Davis. Freshman forward Malik Hairston is awfully good, but he's neither Luke Jackson nor Carmelo Anthony. Get that straight right now.
Oregon State (12-16, 6-12), meanwhile, returns the top seven players from last season's team that split with Oregon -- and adds two solid Division I transfers, blur-quick guard Jason Fontenet from New Mexico State and power forward Nick DeWitz from Iowa.
Oh, and that's no misprint at the top of the standings, either. Arizona over Washington, indeed. Last season was no fluke for the Huskies -- but it was for Arizona. The Wildcats underachieved last season. Won't happen again.
Arizona
Top three: F Hassan Adams, C Channing Frye, G Salim Stoudamire.
On the rise: Point guard Mustafa Shakur (9.2 points, 6.5 assists) figures to make a noticeable jump in production in his sophomore season, which should help ease the loss of versatile wing Andre Iguodala to the NBA.
Everyone else returns, plus the Wildcats get junior power forward Isaiah Fox back from a redshirt season and introduce at least two freshmen (center Mohamed Tangara and wing Jawann McClellan) who should contribute right away. Arizona will be at least nine deep, and whoever the ninth man turns out to be -- McClellan? Ivan Radenovic? -- that guy would be good enough to start for most teams in the Pac-10.
Washington
Top three: G Nate Robinson, PG Brandon Roy, G Will Conroy.
On the rise: The Huskies were as hot as any team in the country last season, and since everyone returns there's no reason to believe that streak won't continue into 2004-05.
Robinson's decision to withdraw from the 2004 NBA Draft gives the Huskies three veteran guards and makes Washington ridiculously deep on the perimeter. Don't forget senior Tre Simmons and junior Bobby Jones, either. That's five quality backcourt players, and all five are juniors or seniors. That doesn't happen anymore, but it happened at Washington.
As was the case last season, the Huskies won't be nearly as deep in the frontcourt, but the addition of 6-5, 240-pound New Mexico transfer Jamaal Williams will help. Huskies coach Lorenzo Romar compares Williams to Adrian Dantley and Mark Aguirre, and while you might not want to bet the mortgage on that, you can believe Williams will make a major impact.
UCLA
Top three: F Dijon Thompson, PG Jordan Farmar, C Ryan Hollins.
On the rise: It's not advisable to start freshmen at point guard and shooting guard, but coaches tend to make an exception when the freshmen are as talented as Farmar and Arron Afflalo. Such will be the case this season at UCLA, where Farmar and Afflalo will go down as the players who helped Howland turn things around.
Thompson wisely withdrew from the 2004 NBA Draft, which gives the Bruins an elite stopper/scorer on the wing, and 7-footers Hollins and Michael Fey are back for their third seasons in the post. Throw in freshmen Josh Shipp on the wing and Lorenzo Mata at center, and senior guards Brian Morrison and Cedric Bozeman, and the Bruins are strong through their ninth man.
Stanford
Top three: PG Chris Hernandez, F Matt Haryasz, F Nick Robinson.
On the decline: Nowhere to go but down for the Cardinal, who lost their top three scorers from last season as well as the coach who turned this program into a powerhouse, NBA-bound Mike Montgomery.
Johnson, a former Montgomery assistant who built Nevada into a pretty stout basketball school, will be able to trot out an all-upperclassman starting five of Hernandez and Dan Grunfeld at guard, Robinson and Haryasz at forward and Rob Little at center. Hernandez is an All-American candidate, while Robinson and Haryasz could have all-league capability. Little is solid, and Grunfeld is almost Lottich-like.
The problem is the bench. Only junior Jason Haas, the backup point guard, has any experience. Are redshirt freshman Tim Morris and sophomore Fred Washington ready for 15 minutes per game? What about 6-8, 195-pound freshman Taj Finger, who might need a year in the weight room to handle the Pac-10 schedule?
Oregon State
Top three: F David Lucas, G Chris Stephens, PG Lamar Hurd.
On the rise: The Beavers don't have the talent of Oregon or even Arizona State or Southern Cal, but the rotation will include seven juniors or seniors -- including their revelatory senior power forward, Lucas. A former walk-on, Lucas averaged 17.2 points and 6.9 rebounds last season.
With Lucas, 6-9 Kyle Jeffers, muscular football player Jim Hanchett and the 6-8 DeWitz, Oregon State has a solid inside nucleus to complement the strength of the team -- guards Hurd, Stephens, J.S. Nash and Fontenet.
Oregon
Top three: G Malik Hairston, C Ian Crosswhite, PG Aaron Brooks.
On the decline: Honestly, this was the toughest call in the Pac-10. Oregon, rising or declining? Tough call.
Oregon seemingly should falter without perimeter stars Jackson, Joseph and Davis, who combined to average nearly 45 points per game last season. But Brooks should be better as a (healthy) sophomore, Crosswhite is an enormous anchor in the middle, and coach Ernie Kent brought in one of the West's best recruiting classes (Hairston, wings Chamberlain Oguchi and Bryce Taylor, and post player Maarty Leunen).
If Oregon's freshman class is as good as the one at UCLA, the Ducks are picked too low. Otherwise, watch out in 2005-06 -- Oregon doesn't have any seniors.
Arizona State
Top three: F Ike Diogu, G Steve Moore, PG Jason Braxton.
On the rise: Turns out, there was a reason behind Moore's midseason funk that dragged down his scoring average in 2003-04 and turned the Sun Devils into a bad one-man team: Moore learned his mother was suffering from breast cancer in January, which sent his production spiraling downward and caused the rest of the team to follow suit.
Moore's mother is recovering, which means Moore should be better -- and the Sun Devils, too. Arizona State went 3-10 down the stretch a year ago, but the return of Diogu (22.8 points, 8.9 rebounds) and the expected improvement of Moore (12.7 ppg) and Braxton (7.1 ppg, 4.8 assists) gives the Sun Devils a nice foundation. They've added an intriguing junior college transfer in Tyrone Jackson, and athletic sophomore forward Serge Angounou is said to have healed from chronic knee problems.
Southern California
Top three: F Jeff McMillan, G Errick Craven, G Lodrick Stewart.
On the decline: Chemistry issues remain at the heart of the Trojans' underachievement, with two sets of twins (the Cravens and the Stewarts) fancying the same starting guard spots.
That's trouble, as is the loss of scoring leader Desmon Farmer and the preseason knee injury to potential starting point guard Dwayne Shackleford.
The only player USC coach Henry Bibby can rely on from game to game is McMillan, a senior power forward who could be a 15-and-10 player this season.
Washington State
Top three: G Thomas Kelati, F Jeff Varem, PG Derrick Low.
On the rise: Even though the Cougars ought to be better in coach Dick Bennett's second season, the overall strength of the rest of the Pac-10 could disguise that improvement.
Two years ago, the thought of losing Marcus Moore to the NBA was disturbing. Not so much now, with Low expected to be the team's point guard for the next four years. The 6-1 Low isn't nearly as big or athletic as Moore, but he is considered among the best players ever to come from Hawaii, and he's exactly the kind of hard-nosed point guard Bennett liked to construct his team around.
Kelati and Varem are excellent wings, but who's going to rebound and defend in the post?
California
Top three: F Marquise Kately, G Richard Midgley, PG Ayinde Ubaka.
On the decline: The Bears' season was gutted by the summer news that sophomore power forward Leon Powe would have to undergo more knee surgery, making his return this season highly unlikely.
With Powe, a dominant big man who averaged 15.1 points and 9.5 rebounds as a freshman despite playing with a torn ACL, Cal could have made a run at a postseason berth. Without him, no chance. Kately and Ubaka ought to be much better, and Midgley is a splendid shooter, but losing Powe and 6-10 Amit Tamir (12.6 points, 5.2 rebounds) leaves too big a hole in the middle.
Accolades
First team
F -- Hassan Adams, Arizona
F -- Ike Diogu, Arizona State
C -- Channing Frye, Arizona
G -- Nate Robinson, Washington
G -- Chris Hernandez, Stanford
Second team
F -- Dijon Thompson, UCLA
F -- David Lucas, Oregon State
C -- Ian Crosswhite, Oregon
G -- Salim Stoudamire, Arizona
G -- Brandon Roy, Washington
Player of the year
Hassan Adams, Arizona
Newcomer of the year
Jordan Farmar, UCLA
Breakthrough player
Matt Haryasz, Stanford
Pacific-10 Conference preview
By Gregg Doyel
SportsLine.com Senior Writer
Stock Chart
Team Stock
1. Arizona
2. Washington
3. UCLA
4. Stanford
5. Oregon State
6. Oregon
7. Arizona State
8. Southern California
9. Washington State
10. California
Those are no misprints. We're predicting UCLA to finish ahead of Stanford in the Pac-10 -- and we're projecting Oregon State ahead of Oregon.
We know, we know, UCLA won just 11 games last season. We know, we know, Stanford won 30 -- and made a run at the first perfect season since Indiana did it in 1976.
Here's what else we know:
* While UCLA lost two good players in T.J. Cummings and Trevor Ariza, their baggage-to-production ratio wasn't good. Meanwhile, the Bruins brought in the best recruiting class in the Pac-10 and should make a leap in year two under coach Ben Howland.
* Stanford? The Cardinal lost their top three scorers -- All-American Josh Childress and two nationally underrated players, guard Matt Lottich and forward Justin Davis. That's nearly 40 points, 17 rebounds and eight assists to replace, and Stanford will be doing so without a great recruiting class but with a new coach, Trent Johnson.
Oregon State over Oregon? Why not? Oregon (18-13, 9-9 last season) lost All-American Luke Jackson as well as double-figure scorers Andre Joseph and James Davis. Freshman forward Malik Hairston is awfully good, but he's neither Luke Jackson nor Carmelo Anthony. Get that straight right now.
Oregon State (12-16, 6-12), meanwhile, returns the top seven players from last season's team that split with Oregon -- and adds two solid Division I transfers, blur-quick guard Jason Fontenet from New Mexico State and power forward Nick DeWitz from Iowa.
Oh, and that's no misprint at the top of the standings, either. Arizona over Washington, indeed. Last season was no fluke for the Huskies -- but it was for Arizona. The Wildcats underachieved last season. Won't happen again.
Arizona
Top three: F Hassan Adams, C Channing Frye, G Salim Stoudamire.
On the rise: Point guard Mustafa Shakur (9.2 points, 6.5 assists) figures to make a noticeable jump in production in his sophomore season, which should help ease the loss of versatile wing Andre Iguodala to the NBA.
Everyone else returns, plus the Wildcats get junior power forward Isaiah Fox back from a redshirt season and introduce at least two freshmen (center Mohamed Tangara and wing Jawann McClellan) who should contribute right away. Arizona will be at least nine deep, and whoever the ninth man turns out to be -- McClellan? Ivan Radenovic? -- that guy would be good enough to start for most teams in the Pac-10.
Washington
Top three: G Nate Robinson, PG Brandon Roy, G Will Conroy.
On the rise: The Huskies were as hot as any team in the country last season, and since everyone returns there's no reason to believe that streak won't continue into 2004-05.
Robinson's decision to withdraw from the 2004 NBA Draft gives the Huskies three veteran guards and makes Washington ridiculously deep on the perimeter. Don't forget senior Tre Simmons and junior Bobby Jones, either. That's five quality backcourt players, and all five are juniors or seniors. That doesn't happen anymore, but it happened at Washington.
As was the case last season, the Huskies won't be nearly as deep in the frontcourt, but the addition of 6-5, 240-pound New Mexico transfer Jamaal Williams will help. Huskies coach Lorenzo Romar compares Williams to Adrian Dantley and Mark Aguirre, and while you might not want to bet the mortgage on that, you can believe Williams will make a major impact.
UCLA
Top three: F Dijon Thompson, PG Jordan Farmar, C Ryan Hollins.
On the rise: It's not advisable to start freshmen at point guard and shooting guard, but coaches tend to make an exception when the freshmen are as talented as Farmar and Arron Afflalo. Such will be the case this season at UCLA, where Farmar and Afflalo will go down as the players who helped Howland turn things around.
Thompson wisely withdrew from the 2004 NBA Draft, which gives the Bruins an elite stopper/scorer on the wing, and 7-footers Hollins and Michael Fey are back for their third seasons in the post. Throw in freshmen Josh Shipp on the wing and Lorenzo Mata at center, and senior guards Brian Morrison and Cedric Bozeman, and the Bruins are strong through their ninth man.
Stanford
Top three: PG Chris Hernandez, F Matt Haryasz, F Nick Robinson.
On the decline: Nowhere to go but down for the Cardinal, who lost their top three scorers from last season as well as the coach who turned this program into a powerhouse, NBA-bound Mike Montgomery.
Johnson, a former Montgomery assistant who built Nevada into a pretty stout basketball school, will be able to trot out an all-upperclassman starting five of Hernandez and Dan Grunfeld at guard, Robinson and Haryasz at forward and Rob Little at center. Hernandez is an All-American candidate, while Robinson and Haryasz could have all-league capability. Little is solid, and Grunfeld is almost Lottich-like.
The problem is the bench. Only junior Jason Haas, the backup point guard, has any experience. Are redshirt freshman Tim Morris and sophomore Fred Washington ready for 15 minutes per game? What about 6-8, 195-pound freshman Taj Finger, who might need a year in the weight room to handle the Pac-10 schedule?
Oregon State
Top three: F David Lucas, G Chris Stephens, PG Lamar Hurd.
On the rise: The Beavers don't have the talent of Oregon or even Arizona State or Southern Cal, but the rotation will include seven juniors or seniors -- including their revelatory senior power forward, Lucas. A former walk-on, Lucas averaged 17.2 points and 6.9 rebounds last season.
With Lucas, 6-9 Kyle Jeffers, muscular football player Jim Hanchett and the 6-8 DeWitz, Oregon State has a solid inside nucleus to complement the strength of the team -- guards Hurd, Stephens, J.S. Nash and Fontenet.
Oregon
Top three: G Malik Hairston, C Ian Crosswhite, PG Aaron Brooks.
On the decline: Honestly, this was the toughest call in the Pac-10. Oregon, rising or declining? Tough call.
Oregon seemingly should falter without perimeter stars Jackson, Joseph and Davis, who combined to average nearly 45 points per game last season. But Brooks should be better as a (healthy) sophomore, Crosswhite is an enormous anchor in the middle, and coach Ernie Kent brought in one of the West's best recruiting classes (Hairston, wings Chamberlain Oguchi and Bryce Taylor, and post player Maarty Leunen).
If Oregon's freshman class is as good as the one at UCLA, the Ducks are picked too low. Otherwise, watch out in 2005-06 -- Oregon doesn't have any seniors.
Arizona State
Top three: F Ike Diogu, G Steve Moore, PG Jason Braxton.
On the rise: Turns out, there was a reason behind Moore's midseason funk that dragged down his scoring average in 2003-04 and turned the Sun Devils into a bad one-man team: Moore learned his mother was suffering from breast cancer in January, which sent his production spiraling downward and caused the rest of the team to follow suit.
Moore's mother is recovering, which means Moore should be better -- and the Sun Devils, too. Arizona State went 3-10 down the stretch a year ago, but the return of Diogu (22.8 points, 8.9 rebounds) and the expected improvement of Moore (12.7 ppg) and Braxton (7.1 ppg, 4.8 assists) gives the Sun Devils a nice foundation. They've added an intriguing junior college transfer in Tyrone Jackson, and athletic sophomore forward Serge Angounou is said to have healed from chronic knee problems.
Southern California
Top three: F Jeff McMillan, G Errick Craven, G Lodrick Stewart.
On the decline: Chemistry issues remain at the heart of the Trojans' underachievement, with two sets of twins (the Cravens and the Stewarts) fancying the same starting guard spots.
That's trouble, as is the loss of scoring leader Desmon Farmer and the preseason knee injury to potential starting point guard Dwayne Shackleford.
The only player USC coach Henry Bibby can rely on from game to game is McMillan, a senior power forward who could be a 15-and-10 player this season.
Washington State
Top three: G Thomas Kelati, F Jeff Varem, PG Derrick Low.
On the rise: Even though the Cougars ought to be better in coach Dick Bennett's second season, the overall strength of the rest of the Pac-10 could disguise that improvement.
Two years ago, the thought of losing Marcus Moore to the NBA was disturbing. Not so much now, with Low expected to be the team's point guard for the next four years. The 6-1 Low isn't nearly as big or athletic as Moore, but he is considered among the best players ever to come from Hawaii, and he's exactly the kind of hard-nosed point guard Bennett liked to construct his team around.
Kelati and Varem are excellent wings, but who's going to rebound and defend in the post?
California
Top three: F Marquise Kately, G Richard Midgley, PG Ayinde Ubaka.
On the decline: The Bears' season was gutted by the summer news that sophomore power forward Leon Powe would have to undergo more knee surgery, making his return this season highly unlikely.
With Powe, a dominant big man who averaged 15.1 points and 9.5 rebounds as a freshman despite playing with a torn ACL, Cal could have made a run at a postseason berth. Without him, no chance. Kately and Ubaka ought to be much better, and Midgley is a splendid shooter, but losing Powe and 6-10 Amit Tamir (12.6 points, 5.2 rebounds) leaves too big a hole in the middle.
Accolades
First team
F -- Hassan Adams, Arizona
F -- Ike Diogu, Arizona State
C -- Channing Frye, Arizona
G -- Nate Robinson, Washington
G -- Chris Hernandez, Stanford
Second team
F -- Dijon Thompson, UCLA
F -- David Lucas, Oregon State
C -- Ian Crosswhite, Oregon
G -- Salim Stoudamire, Arizona
G -- Brandon Roy, Washington
Player of the year
Hassan Adams, Arizona
Newcomer of the year
Jordan Farmar, UCLA
Breakthrough player
Matt Haryasz, Stanford