WEEK 9 Spread Margins

[MAJOR]

YEAR TO DATE PER GAME SPREAD MARGINS

This is a theory of taking a team ,
if their spread was 3 and they win by 8 they get +5 for the game
if they lost by 8 while favored by 3 they get -11 for the game

TEAMS :

ARIZONA 4.0
ATLANTA -1.9
BALTIMORE 1.9
BUFFALO 0.6
CAROLINA -5.7
CHICAGO 2.3
CINCI -3.1
CLEVELAND 3.2
DALLAS -5.9
DENVER -1.5
DETROIT 0.2
GREEN BAY 0.7
HOUSTON 4.8
INDY 2.1
JACKSONVILLE 0.8
K.C. 2.6
MIAMI -2.1
MINNY -1.5
N.E. 0.1
N.O. -5
NYG 8
NYJ 3.1
OAK -9.4
PHIL 4.8
PITTS 4.9
ST.L -4.6
S.D. 11.3
S.F.-4
SEATTLE 0.1
TAMPA 0
TENN -5.1
WASH -4.9


CONCLUSION : LOOK AT SAN DIEGO AND NEW ORLEANS
SAN DIEGO = Excellent bet so far 2004
covering 5 straight...

highest spread margin at + 11

(they've been beating spread per game by average of + 11)
add n.o. -5
Total for tis game is actually 16 .
The highest difference of any 2 teams

But this is a non conference match up
n.o. off a bye
s.d.. prior to a bye
s.d. in tie with Denver , 2 games ahead of 3rd place kc
n.o. 2nd place 3 games behind atl , 1 ahead of tampa
must win for N.O.
not a must win for S.D.
spread analysis pick = new orleans
this isn't actually a pick
just something to throw out at you and make your own concluions
i'll post picks later
but interesting theory

note how close pitts and philly spread per game is...

the raiders are at -9.4 while panthers at -5.7
spread is - 7 for carolina you could pick oak to cover
n.e. 0.1 st.louis -4.6 spread is 2.5 take n.e.

NOTE - ONLY 3 DIVISIONAL GAMES THIS WEEK :

NYJ VS BUFFALO
SEATTLE VS SAN FRAN
BROWNS VS RAVENS

ONE NFC MATCHUP
HOUSTON VS DENVER
2 AFC'S
WASH VS DET
BEARS VS NYG


This is just 1 more tool to use with your own analysis
be back later in week with plays

[MAJOR]

WEEK 9 POINTS PER GAME PLAYS/SYSTEM

TAKE :POINTS PER GM FOR / # GMS = PPGF
POINTS PER GAME AGAINST / # GMS = PPGA

ADDING 3 POINTS FOR HOME TEAM (H.T.)

NYJ+ 7 VS BILLS- 1 + 3 HM TEAM = NYJ + 5 SPREAD=+3 PLAY NYJ
PHIL + 9 VS PITTS + 5 + 3 H.T. = EAGLES + 1 SPREAD 1 = PICK
WASH -4 VS DET -2 + 3 H.T.= DET +3 SPREAD 3.5 = PICK
DALL - 5 VS CIN -6 + 3 H.T. = DAL + 2 SPREAD +1 = PICK
OAK -14 VS CAR -9 + 3 H.T. = CAR + 8 SPREAD +7 PLAY OAK (DOG)
CARD -2 VS MIA -7 + 3 = CARDS + 2 SPREAD + 3 = PICK
KC +4 VS T.B. 0 + 3 H.T. = KC + 1 SPREAD + 3 = PICK
CHI -2 VS NYG + + 3 H.T.= NYG + 11 SPREAD +9 PLAY NYG
SEA + 5 VS SF-9 +3 H.T. = SEA +11 SPREAD = 7 PLAY SEA
N.O. -5 VS S.D.+6 + 3 H.T. = S.D. +14 SPREAD +6 PLAY S.D.
N.E. + 6 VS ST.L. -1 +3 H.T. = N.E.+4 SPREAD + 2 = PLAY N.E.
HOU +3 VS DEN +3 + 3 H.T.= DEN + 3 SPREAD 6 PLAY HOU (DOG)
CLE 0 VS BALT +4R + 3 H.T. = BALT +7 SPREAD 6 = PLAY BALT

[MAJOR]

EARLY PUBLIC POLL WHO WILL COVER THE GAME
WITHOUT ANY BETTING ACTION (I.E.OFFICE POOLS)

85% NYJ
60% EAGLES
61% LIONS
70% COWBOYS
55% RAIDERS (DOG)
61% CARDS (DOG)
87% KC
56% NYG
81% SEA
70% S.D.
80% N.E.
70% HOUSTON (DOG)
55% RAVENS
65% COLTS

Note : if you take all these in your pool you'll be one of many
find a heavily favored team vs dog you think has good chance and take dog

[razorbacker]

Major, very interesting concept, like it a lot.

I noticed in your second post you're adding the generic 3 pts for home field advantage. Ever think about avg'ing home and road spread diff's for each team. Then, pairing actual location (i.e. home or road) spread differencial avg's?

Think I'll investigate.

[MAJOR]

Major's pick of week :
year to date 3-1

Pittsburgh
reasons :
Running game
pitts avg 147 yds per gm , 4th in league vs 93 last year
staley ready to show eagles they made a mistake not keeping him
he said this week " I have a new life now"
Steelers have made football fun for me again.
I wasn't having fun in Philidelphia..

if you can control run game you have good chance of winning
Eagles defence people talk about this week?
31st in league against the run averaging 4.8 yds per run

sure Mcnabb will throw to t.o.and make some plays but after a while steelers D will figure it out and cause a few interceptions
even if westbrook plays he's not 100% and a fewgood
tackles could reinjure that rib.
back up is Levins 12 carries 40 yds vs Ravens last week

look for ball control ,running game to win this one

what what interesting in the n.e.game is :

they had 417 yds offense on superbowl champs (yes n.e didn't have starters )
held pats to 5 yds rushing ,,
controlled the ball for a whopping 42 minutes
and created 4 turnovers

[MAJOR]

Is it just me or is this a difficult week to disect?

Anyway , here's my top 5 :

Pittsburgh , I have already satedreasons .And besides a veteran member of this forum agrees with me , I won't name names ,but he knows who he is..

Also i forgot to mention : Pittsburgh has best red zone offense in league...
they punch it in 76% of time and score 9/10 times...


Raiders at Panthers :
carolina is 1-9 last 10 as home favs
This is too many points to back vs oak.
Heck oak has 1 more win...They'll want a win before coming back to Oak where they were booed last home game...
thus take oak + points

Chiefs at bucs : why is the line only 3 ?
If line opened at 5 or 6 you'd still have people on the chiefs bandwagon...
Tampa still has decent D capable of stopping the chiefs so something must be up , taking T.B.
(No logical conclusion here)

SEAHAWKS AT 49ERS : REMEMBER THE FIRST MEETING ANYONE?
Take seahawks

Saints at chargers - see my spread theory - too many spread points at the halfway point of season...
The game means more to N.O. than S.D.
If S.D loses they still have shot at first place div/playoffs
N.O. trying to get a game closer to Atlanta
so N.O. it is

y.t.d. :
12-8
mon night 2-2

[MAJOR]

For those who like trends , week 9 trends (ats)

Miami is 5-0 last 5 after allowing 34 or more points
Cinci is 1-9-1 last 11 games
Was is 20-3 last 23 as a road dog 3.5-7 pts
St.L. is 5-1 last 6 after a bye
cleve is 0-3 on rd
Balt is 6-1 last 7 at home after a loss
and 4/5 last 5 vs clev

Bears are 3/10 last 13 on grass

Arizona s 2/11 last 13 rd dog
car 1/8 last 9 home,
1/7 last 8 nov games
Sea is 3-1 last 4 vs sf but 0-4 last 4 games

Houston 7-1 last 8 nov
Den is 1,4,2 last 7 games
Nyj 8/1 last 9 after MNF

tb won last 3 vs kc

Pitts won last 5/5 , last 4 over , won 7 of last 10
phil lost last 2 ,won 7 of last 10

Minn is 4-1 last 5 vs indy
Indy is 13-4 last 17 vs winning teams

[MAJOR]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by MAJOR
[B]Is it just me or is this a difficult week to disect?

Anyway , here's my top 5 :

Pittsburgh , I have already satedreasons .And besides a veteran member of this forum agrees with me , I won't name names ,but he knows who he is..

Also i forgot to mention : Pittsburgh has best red zone offense in league...
they punch it in 76% of time and score 9/10 times...


Raiders at Panthers :
carolina is 1-9 last 10 as home favs
This is too many points to back vs oak.
Heck oak has 1 more win...They'll want a win before coming back to Oak where they were booed last home game...
thus take oak + points

Chiefs at bucs : why is the line only 3 ?
If line opened at 5 or 6 you'd still have people on the chiefs bandwagon...
Tampa still has decent D capable of stopping the chiefs so something must be up , taking T.B.
(No logical conclusion here)

SEAHAWKS AT 49ERS : REMEMBER THE FIRST MEETING ANYONE?
Take seahawks

Saints at chargers - see my spread theory - too many spread points at the halfway point of season...
The game means more to N.O. than S.D.
If S.D loses they still have shot at first place div/playoffs
N.O. trying to get a game closer to Atlanta
so N.O. it is

UPDATE :
Pitts win pick of week 4-1
oak win
t.b. win
3-0 2 pending

[MAJOR]

Originally posted by MAJOR
[QUOTE]Originally posted by MAJOR
[B]Is it just me or is this a difficult week to disect?

Anyway , here's my top 5 :

Pittsburgh , I have already satedreasons .And besides a veteran member of this forum agrees with me , I won't name names ,but he knows who he is..

Also i forgot to mention : Pittsburgh has best red zone offense in league...
they punch it in 76% of time and score 9/10 times...


Raiders at Panthers :
carolina is 1-9 last 10 as home favs
This is too many points to back vs oak.
Heck oak has 1 more win...They'll want a win before coming back to Oak where they were booed last home game...
thus take oak + points

Chiefs at bucs : why is the line only 3 ?
If line opened at 5 or 6 you'd still have people on the chiefs bandwagon...
Tampa still has decent D capable of stopping the chiefs so something must be up , taking T.B.
(No logical conclusion here)

SEAHAWKS AT 49ERS : REMEMBER THE FIRST MEETING ANYONE?
Take seahawks

Saints at chargers - see my spread theory - too many spread points at the halfway point of season...
The game means more to N.O. than S.D.
If S.D loses they still have shot at first place div/playoffs
N.O. trying to get a game closer to Atlanta
so N.O. it is

UPDATE :
Pitts win pick of week 4-1
oak win
t.b. win
3-0 2 pending

Updated :
4-1
sea win , n.o.loss
gonna sit sun night out and watch
gl to all