Leftnutx2
10-25-2004, 02:06 PM
To begin, I am knew to this forum. I am also new to betting sports. I have been betting sports for about 3 weeks now, and my area of knowledge is baseball. But with Baseball coming to an end, I am trying to learn the football teams. I know the game, and I understand strategies, I just don't know the teams, because I have never been a football spectator. I live around Chicago, and the Bears suck this year, as well as the bulls. I don't feel like betting against the Bulls and Bears all winter long, so I found this forum to be a great help to me, to learn as much as I possibly can about betting strategies, and to learn more about Football (and Basketball too.) Basically, I have watched about half of the Bears games each year, for the past few years, and I haven't really watched Basketball since the last time Jordan was in a Bulls uniform. But betting on football, and basketball, should help me to grow more interest in the two sports.
I've done some research on tonight's game, and with absolutely no knowledge of any players on either team, but comparing the match up that Bodog.com has provided, I have made these picks:
Game:
Denver -7.5 (-120) 3 units
Over/Under +43.5 No Play
1st Half:
Denver -4.0 (-125) 3 units
Over/Under +21.5 No Play
7 pt. Teaser:
Denver -0.5
Under +50.5
(-140) 3 units
Now my write up:
Total Rushing Yards:
Off - Broncos - (2) 151.7
Def - Bengals - (32) 160.4
Off - Bengals - (22) 102.2
Def - Broncos - (2) 87.3
Total Passing Yards:
Off - Broncos - (15) 219.0
Def - Bengals - (10) 204.8
Off - Bengals - (23) 186.0
Def - Broncos - (1) 137.5
These are the stats that are most appealing to me. Without knowing anything about either team, this tells me that the Broncos have an outstanding defense, while the Bengals have a below offense. The Bengal's offense has averaged a total of 288.2 yards from their passing and rushing. I doubt they will get that many against the Bronco's defense. While the Bengals have a good defense against the passing game, their are terrible against rushing. The Bronco's offense has averaged a total of 370.7 yards from their passing and rushing.
Just from looking at those numbers, I believe the Bengals will have only 2 scoring drives, and at least one of those drives, the Broncos will hold the Bengals to a FG. Therefore, I say the Bengals score no more than 10 points.
The Broncos, I believe, will have 4-6 scoring drives. With 10 points by the Bengals, it would take 5 TDs (35 points) to hit the over on the game. I doubt the score will go that high, but just in case, I decided to play a teaser, to make the under +50.5. I am also thinking of playing 1/2 a unit on the winning margin being +36 for the Broncos (+2800). It's a small safety bet, that won't take too much away from my winnings on the teaser bet, but would give be a better payout should the Broncos win by that much. And there is also a small window that would allow me to win both.
As for the first half bet, I may add more units to the first half Broncos -4, before the start of the game, because I see 3 scoring drives by the Broncos in the first half, with at least 1 TD, but probably 2 TDs would be my best estimate.
My Prediction:
At the Half:
Broncos - 17
Bengals - 3
Final:
Broncos - 27
Bengals - 10
I also would play the under for the 2nd half, with the 2 following conditions:
Broncos lead by 15 or more
The 2nd Half Under is +21.5 or higher
GL to all, and any advice is welcomed.
I've done some research on tonight's game, and with absolutely no knowledge of any players on either team, but comparing the match up that Bodog.com has provided, I have made these picks:
Game:
Denver -7.5 (-120) 3 units
Over/Under +43.5 No Play
1st Half:
Denver -4.0 (-125) 3 units
Over/Under +21.5 No Play
7 pt. Teaser:
Denver -0.5
Under +50.5
(-140) 3 units
Now my write up:
Total Rushing Yards:
Off - Broncos - (2) 151.7
Def - Bengals - (32) 160.4
Off - Bengals - (22) 102.2
Def - Broncos - (2) 87.3
Total Passing Yards:
Off - Broncos - (15) 219.0
Def - Bengals - (10) 204.8
Off - Bengals - (23) 186.0
Def - Broncos - (1) 137.5
These are the stats that are most appealing to me. Without knowing anything about either team, this tells me that the Broncos have an outstanding defense, while the Bengals have a below offense. The Bengal's offense has averaged a total of 288.2 yards from their passing and rushing. I doubt they will get that many against the Bronco's defense. While the Bengals have a good defense against the passing game, their are terrible against rushing. The Bronco's offense has averaged a total of 370.7 yards from their passing and rushing.
Just from looking at those numbers, I believe the Bengals will have only 2 scoring drives, and at least one of those drives, the Broncos will hold the Bengals to a FG. Therefore, I say the Bengals score no more than 10 points.
The Broncos, I believe, will have 4-6 scoring drives. With 10 points by the Bengals, it would take 5 TDs (35 points) to hit the over on the game. I doubt the score will go that high, but just in case, I decided to play a teaser, to make the under +50.5. I am also thinking of playing 1/2 a unit on the winning margin being +36 for the Broncos (+2800). It's a small safety bet, that won't take too much away from my winnings on the teaser bet, but would give be a better payout should the Broncos win by that much. And there is also a small window that would allow me to win both.
As for the first half bet, I may add more units to the first half Broncos -4, before the start of the game, because I see 3 scoring drives by the Broncos in the first half, with at least 1 TD, but probably 2 TDs would be my best estimate.
My Prediction:
At the Half:
Broncos - 17
Bengals - 3
Final:
Broncos - 27
Bengals - 10
I also would play the under for the 2nd half, with the 2 following conditions:
Broncos lead by 15 or more
The 2nd Half Under is +21.5 or higher
GL to all, and any advice is welcomed.