Uh Oh!

[BoKnows]

The line in tonites game is dropping...looks like Vegas is up to its dirty tricks again with the line mind F*ck as huge $$ are coming in on WVU and the spread continues to go south???Trying to intice Cuse bettors to jump before it gets to low!I dont like the look of this....:gulp: :gulp: May have to hedge!If your on the fence this to me is a signal to take WVU!If you liked WVU at 17 you will definetly like it at 15.5!!

[THECHOSEN1]

i am new to posting on this forum but have been following your picks for a while now. got a little nervous when i saw you were on the other side of this game but this message reassured my pick for tonight. thanx for all the great picks and keep up the good work. good luck

[Stifler's Mom]

Pinnacle is at -14.5 (-104) already and you can move it to -14 (-114) if you like WVU....

[El Hacko]

Darn! I thought it was good late last night at -16 :cry:*DOOOOH!!*
It can go to -12 and I'm standing pat. If it's a quirky game I dont want to lose my shorts..Baseball this week (0-4) already took my shirt!

[BoKnows]

Scary!:gulp: :gulp: :gulp:

[THERIGHTCHOICE]

What is the safest play tonight Bo?

[BoKnows]

I am on the Cuse +17! IMOP I would now wait and watch the line movement..as I have stated in weeks past this type of movement is contradictary to the wagers meaning that funny money is going on WVA to prompt Cuse players to move on a dropping line meaning that WVA would be the play!GL tough call! Many esteemed cappers on this site are loving the Mountaineers at -17 so at 14 it would seem like a solid play! I will have to ride the wave and hope for the best since I am already down!If it gets to 14 I will most likely hedge!Scary!

[italian1]

Straight Wager
100.00/650.00

10/21/04 Syracuse +650
19:30 ET


Well BO you just never know. I think SY covers and maybe a possible upset.

[BoKnows]

Nice Italian!I like your style!GL!!I think you, I and a few select others are the only ones riding the Orange Ship!Hold on it might get a little rocky:gulp:

[Nigel Tufnel]

Hmm.....you could also look at the line movement in the Cuse's favor. If all the public money is coming in on WVU and the line is continuing to drop....couldn't that mean that Vegas wants more and more and more money to come in on WVU...because they like the Cuse to cover?

Remember GB and Tenn on MNF? Tons of cash on GB and the line hardly moved all day...what happened? major Titan cover. I don't know Bo....I think that fishy line movement could be Vegas thinking this will be a 10 point game and they are trying to get as much WVU money as possible so that they can crush the public. Think about it...you're the public...you've been told to bet against the public....you see the line moving down without seeing how the public is actually betting...you would assume the public is on the Cuse and take WVU...maybe that's their hook....anyone? anyone?

Nonetheless....Best of luck to everyone tonight. I was leaning towards WVU but now I might just stay away and watch Game 7.

[Timberwolves]

Bo i watch you picks last week.....you are unbelivible.............very nice on ND...........wonder how you new Brocos would win like that ......POW you call it......................i never under stand................my question to you Bo is wat you mean you will "hege" on the VW

[thabizness40]

Go 'Cuse! West Virginia didnt impress me at all against UCONN. Tough conference game and Syracuse game my Noles a run! Played well.

[DA Ladies Man]

i had the orangemen at +17...so im not worried BO....i think the score will be 35-24.....WV will win but they not gonna blow out the orangemen...they are 2 undiscplined and have way 2 many mental errors...2 do that.....

[tiggy1146]

I agree. gotta take orange crush and the pts.

GL everyone

[beermantm]

The amount of bets coming in are relatively split but to take a look at a line that keeps running in the wrong direction I would venture to say that a ton of money is pouring in on Cuse. Of course Cuse has been covering everything lately so it makes plenty of sence to me. I was a bit torn on this myself but felt there was value until 17 hit the board so right now WVU actually looks like a value play to me.

Good luck though I know your on the other side tonight Bo so either way someone wins.

:thumbs:

[Timberwolves]

Hey guys i have the line at 14.5 and the total at 51..................does this smell like soem games back a few weeks ago..........when line was dropping big......................what is going on?

[LayingDaMoney]

GL tonight BO....took WV-8.5 on a teaser....looking for a 10-14pt win by the Mountain Boyz!

[BoKnows]

Good pts Nigel...it just seemed the last few weeks when this was happening Vegas was pushing people away from the line movement to sucker in bets? Either way I am on the Cuse +17 which I liked all along so Go Orange!

Timber "Hedge"=To minimize or protect against the loss of by counterbalancing one transaction, such as a bet, against another. Mr Webster.

GL All...and Good luck Orange!!Huge weekend ahead lets get it started right!

[FIGJAM231]

It seems to me that a bunch of money might have been flowing in on 'cuse and Vegas and odds makers wanted more money to come over to WVU. Regardless of the situation I am with you on the Orangman boat. Let's kick the man in the nuts so hard he tastes his unborn children.:yeah:

[ToP]

BOL Bo, Had to take the +7 for the 2H with Cuse.................:gulp:

[Chris]

Something you need to understand about line movement from a bookies perspective. You could have 100,000 wagered by the public and a wise guy can come in and lay as low as $5000 and move the spread a full point the other way...

[ToP]

Chris,

From the bookies view, who would be considered a wiseguy? Not being a smartass, just curious how a book, like Pinny, smells a player from the public? Win/Loss%, money won or other? Just curious.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Tired...I'm bored and getting ready to go to bed...but I thought I'd take a shot at this one...just to see if I'm on the right track.

I've got two theories...1. Vegas knows who the wise guys are...they make a wager that Vegas thinks is worth changing the line...Vegas changes the line, and the offshore books change their lines according to Vegas; or 2. The offshore accounts figure out who their wise guys are and change the lines on certain usernames and their wagers...based on the times of their bets, the size of their wagers, and their success rate.

Chris...if either of these are correct, I'd like a nice shiny silver star sticker to place on my lapel.

Gl this weekend.

[ToP]

Nigel,

I would agree with the 2 scenarios, but there are so many ways to cover up who you are..........very easy to open multiple accounts, I have one book that I go against the move in the 2H and its hitting over 80% during college football. Last week was the first loosing 2H weekend.

[dead garcia]

you were on the money with the movement....also the o/u did the same during the week on this game....started at 47 and last night when i called in it was -15 and o/u 51....they were begging for over bets and getting them.....when i called and the line was 15 i almost shit myself...took all the self control i could muster from laying huge on WVA....

Chris....I have always enjoyed your insights....would you mind giving me a little bio info on yourself to satisfy a curiousity I have?? M.I.T. Doctorate?? have you worked as or for a book?? dont mean to pry....just curious....

[Chris]

Wise guys- guys who dont bet bad numbers and always get the best of the number. They win year in year out... Most if not all books profile players espically those with huge credit packages and or heavy hitters. Don't remember who said it but offshore does nto follow Las Vegas. It is the other way around. Any big money or "Wise Guys" don't wast there time in Las Vegas because you can not even come close getting down the amounts you can offshore.... Las Vegas sportsbooks are barely at the point of a local bookmaker.




MR. Dead Garcia

I was raised for several years on the south side of chicago where my father was a bookmaker for 30+ years. I have also dabbbled in it my younger days but got out of it because of all the bs... I have also worked offshore. Things that bother me the most in posting forums are as follows.

#1 Folks always reffering to Las Vegas and the betting line... Las Vegas does not even come close to what some of these biiger shops will and take or bet out... not even close... Las vegas and sports gambling should not be used in the same context.

#2 Folks that see a line that looks off and says LAS VEGAS is setting a trap. There is no reason for anyone in the booking world to set a trap. Why you ask because most if not all the public will kill themselves because they dont know a good line or a bad line if it hit them in the face.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Well....sorry if I've bothered you because I have said both of those things in the past...guess I'm one of the ignorant...oh well.

However, I find it hard to believe that Vegas....er...."the man"...is that better....how about "the book?" doesn't ever set a trap. (JK about the lingo...I will have to make a point of not saying Vegas so as to not annoy you and make myself look completely ignorant to you.) Guess I'm just a conspiracy theorist.

GL this weekend on your picks....I will say this....maybe the whole "trap" thing just adds to the entertainment of gaming. I don't do this for a living...I do this because I like it and if I can win some cash....great. I don't play more than I can comfortably lose....so maybe thinking you spotted a trap and playing the other way and winning just gives one a sense of accomplishment....who knows....

[Chris]

Hell Nigel 99% of posters reffer to las vegas and sports betting... Offshore has made Las Vegas a ghost town for sports betting in regards to wise guy action or even sydicate action. Las Vegas I would guess holds 10-12% every year because the only folks they take action from is tourist who want to come in and bet there favorite team. One thing I have been told by a very close bettor freind of mine is the Golden Nuggest is starting to take some large action again. I just hope one of these days one of the LV bookmakers gets some balls and starts taking real action again. Would love to see it.. Will it happen? Doubt it most higher ups dont want to mess with sportsbetting because the easy money is at the slot machines and table games.

[Chris]

One last note in regards to traps... Pinnacle is very good sometimes when they have a strong opinion they hang a weak number off market juice the crap out of it and get action all day long. So if you would like to reffer that as a trap then I guess they do happen. To me thats just a opinated line. That's one of the many resons I have such respect for them they are not aftaid to take action from anyone or anything and they are not afraid to let there opinions be known same goes for a sportsboook like CRIS.

[Stifler's Mom]

I would guess it wouldn't bee to hard for a book to single out "wise guys".

For example, I'm pretty sure they're not looking at people who lay a hundred, or even a few hundred bucks a game, even if they are winning at a high perentage, cause from what I understand "wise guys" lay a hell of alot more than that on each of their plays.

So you would think they would only have to concentrate on those who are laying "maximum" wagers, whatever that amount is at their book...and i also believe it's safe to say they can rule out the ones who are losing continuously, betting too many games, chasing losses, playing teasers, playing parlays, etc....since from what I understand "wise guys" don't do any of this.

I would think that "wise guys" would mostly zero in on the same plays too, because of their ability to spot the bad lines, even though they're not working together.

I could be way off though, I'm just guessing.

As far as traps go, I believe that when most people here call a line "trap" they're referring to what they feel is the line being set too high or too low due to public perception, so the books get equal money on both sides, which is what they want....which is in essence the "public" trapping themselves by taking the line that looks too good to be true, not the oddsmakers intentionally setting a trap. I don't think they mean that they think the oddsmakers sitting there in a little room saying to each other "man, we're really gonna trap the public on this one"

But again, I could be off here too, cause I really have no clue what other posters are thinking when they post certain things.

But it happens every year it seems. There are lines that look "too good to be true" and in the beginning of the season, the public players hit all these plays and cash time after time, but eventually they hit a stone wall when these plays \almost completely stop cashing. It's kinda weird how that happens, but it always does seem to.

[Chris]

Stiff you have pretty much got it. In regards to the to good to be true lines where the public wins wins wins then gets killed killed killed. It's because the bookmakers see trends in betting on certain team or the public perception and gets the number caught up to the team. In most cases in college football there are always two-three teams every year that finally get the bookmakers attention. then the following year public remembers team whatever was great last year and they may add a extra½ knowing they are going to get the action. A really good case of this is tonights game IMO Colorado state opened as a -2 and now sits 4½. the 2 IMO is the truer number. the 2-4½ to me looks like a true blue public move.

[italian1]

I have read several books on vegas gambling and line movement and I guarantee the line changes when certain people have some action on a game.

[Chris]

Originally posted by italian1
I have read several books on vegas gambling and line movement and I guarantee the line changes when certain people have some action on a game.


Yes of course thats true. but I bet those certain people you are reffering to are getting down 20x more offshore than they are in LV.

[dead garcia]

appreciate the info....

[beermantm]

IMO Colorado state opened as a -2 and now sits 4½. the 2 IMO is the truer number. the 2-4½ to me looks like a true blue public move.

All the info I have seen on this game seems to me the line opened at 5 or 4.5...........where are you getting the 2 from???

thanks :gulp:

Hey Chris I didn't know you were a fellow south sider..................:thumbs:

[Chris]

2 was the opener @ Cris

[Nigel Tufnel]

Good info, Chris....thanks. Always good to learn things from people who know more than you.

Just curious about one thing....when you say Vegas isn't taking big action...what do you mean? Does Vegas put a cap on maximum bets on most games? When I go to Vegas, I obviously don't have the money to lay $10,000 on a game...would I not be able to if I wanted to? Or is the max in the hundreds of thousands? When I play @ Pinnacle, I think there are always caps on a maximum bet that can be placed....are those maxs higher than Vegas? Just not a high enough roller to even know about these things but I'm still interested in knowing.

[Chris]

I know this much. Cris Pinnacle Grande. If there is money in your account they will take about whatever over the phone. You also have to realize there is a credit side of this business and thats where most of the heavy hitters come from. Comparing website maxes to phone maxes is like comparing apple and oranges. You can still get down good amounts on NFL in LV because it is the touughest to beat. but try getting down 20 dimes on college basketball or college football. You would be hard pressed to find more than maybe two on a day to day basis.