Week 7: PHILLY -7 -102 at Cleveland!? whats up with this line?

[RSxxxxx]

what on earth is up with this line?! i would think Philly by 21!?

[Queen of Football]

My Power Ratings have not been updated yet on todays games. Line should be at 14. But CLE should move up a tad, and Philly too. So Dont really know what's up with it.

[RSxxxxx]

not gonna wait, laying 10 units on it and can always buy it back...

[RSxxxxx]

could be cuz cleveland is 3-0 at home, but they won against cincy, baltimore and washington, so that doesnt mean much

[RSxxxxx]

11 units to win 10 on Philly -6.5 -118 at cleveland (bought half a point for the hell of it)

watch this line hit -10 fast

unless mcnabb and owens are dead or something and i dont know about it!?

[ShawnDeath]

I can only assume that the Browns good showing today and anticipation of a Philly letdown after their revenge game would be the reason. The spreads just haven't seemed to be that large on heavy favorites all season long so far.

(1st post by the way, hello and great forum, glad I found it =)

[RSxxxxx]

welcome shawn

yeah, i can see why they would set the line that low....then again, theyve been doing it all season, and we've been raping the man all season to

cleveland +7 over philly? who are we kidding

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Wow, rs.....I agree. I thought we might get another decent line for Philly with Garcia lighting it up yesterday. I jumped on the -6.5 this morning as well. These boys are the kings of COVER.

Others than that i see the lines moving higher on these (nice on teasers or buy .5 pt)

NYG -6.5 (Det)
NE -6.5 (NYJ)
Sea -7.5 (Ari)
Den -5.5 (Cin)

[RSxxxxx]

im checking out NE -6.....jets won huge for me, but gave me a heart attach on the way, wouldnt mind betting against them next week and watching them get pounded!

[StealtheR]

Risk / To Win Amount: 220.00 / 200.00 (USD) Accepted 10/18/2004 2:47 PM

Sport / Period: NFL Football / Game
Line:
Philadelphia Eagles 10/24/2004 1:00:01 PM - EST
-7 -110

[joepa66]

Just about every point the Browns scored followed a gift wrapped turnover by the Bungles....and the Browns gave 4 away....if they do that against Phila they get pasted....and don't expect the Eagles to turn it over....they're 8th in the league at 0.8 per game....Cleveburg is 25th at 2 TO per game.....

[Dawgs33]

The Browns pts had nothing to do with gifts or turnovers. I was at the game and all of Cincy pts were due to turnovers and a short field because of this. Truth be told they should have beaten Cincy worse. With that said, My $ would still have to be on Philly -7. Get it now because it will be closer to 10 or higher by Sun.

[RSxxxxx]

browns will get shalacked next week! :beer2:

[CANESBIGGDOGG]

Eagles have been excellent to me this year. They have covered every game. Eagles -7 2 units before the line moves.:yeah:

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Bought 3 units this morning at -6.5 (bought .5 pt)
And a 1 unit teaser with Sea, both at -1.5.

My book has it up one point to 8 already!!
Moving fast!
I agree....likely see it at 9.5 by game day.

GL!

[Dawgs33]

If my memory serves me right, I remember a lowly Cincy team guaranteed a win against last year against the 9-0 Chiefs who looked poised to challenge the 72 Dolphins record. I think the spot was only 7 pts or around that. Not only did Cincy cover, but won straight up. Everybody loses sooner or later. On any given Sunday, thats why we play the games. I'm still with you on Philly, but stranger things have happened before. I lost $ on that Cincy play last year thinking No Way they cover such a low number. Good luck with you play.

[GMan]

It is hard to go against Philly who is 5-0 ATS. I think Cleveland's injuries really hamper them this week and have turned the ball over 12 times while Philly only 4 times. Cleveland had their hands full with the Giants - Philly will be more of the same.


Nice game yesterday. My team is terrible. Browns tried to give it away with 4 turnovers in the 1st H and the Bengals only managed 17pts. Broncos are gonna run right over the Bengals next monday night and they have the best defense in terms of yards per game. Champ will make it hard on Chad - so you should have your DB's send it back to him. It doesn't matter who the RB is, Denver's line is that good. Only thing to worry about is that the line opened at -5.5, but Cincy is 0-5 ATS.

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

True Dogs33, anything can happen. I just don't see it. The difference between KC last year, and Philly this year is defence. The offences are both explosive, but KC's D last year was beatable. Philly's D this year is ranked in the top 5, and has been dominating every team they play. I wasn't sold on KC last year with the defence they had. To run the table you have to be dominating on BOTH sides of the ball. Philly has done just that so far. I wouldn't bet my house on it, but I'll be happy to put 4 or 5 units on it. Should be fun to watch anyway. GL!

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Line has moved to 8.5 at my book. Man, am I glad I got 3 units at 6.5! (bought .5) Might be over 10 at this rate.

[tcwantsmoney]

Browns are gonna cover

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally posted by tcwantsmoney
Browns are gonna cover
. . . . . their eyes when they see the pasting on the scoreboard.

[Mr_Sock]

i think it is because the browns have a bye the nest week and so far, every week, 3 out of the 4 teams that had a bye the next week had won! but as soon as i looked at what teams would win and which one would be the won to lose i imeddiately eliminated cleveland! :thumbs:

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Originally posted by Mr_Sock
but as soon as i looked at what teams would win and which one would be the won to lose i imeddiately eliminated cleveland!

lol.
That most definitely is a "Kramer" sentence.

GL Sock!

[tcwantsmoney]

I have 1 million units on the Brown Moneyline

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

You're a smart man.

[joepa66]

Dawgs...thanks for pointing out the error of my crooked fingers...that line should have read .... "every point the Bungles scored was a gift wrapped turnover by the Browns".....and that the Browns can ill afford 4 TOs vs. Phila or they're in for a smashing.....:yeah:

[RSxxxxx]

thinking too much about it will make you go crazy, if i told you any time this year Philly -6.5 at Cleveland, you wouldnt jump on it? whats the difference this week?

its cleveland!

[MAJOR]

philly wins + covers 8,9,or 10
my opinion

[FearTheRaven]

cleveland is 3-0 @ home straight up and against the spread!

[RSxxxxx]

Originally posted by FearTheRaven
cleveland is 3-0 @ home straight up and against the spread!

as mentioned before, 3-0 vs cincy, baltimore and washington. everyone is or woul dbe 3-0 ATS and SU vs these teams (except miami and 49ers)

[RSxxxxx]

also, how about the fact Philly is 2-0 ATS on the road vs detroit and chicago, which are tough teams at home (good D too!)

[Big Pimpin]

Originally posted by RSxxxxx
also, how about the fact Philly is 2-0 ATS on the road vs detroit and chicago, which are tough teams at home (good D too!)


soon to be 3-0....bank it

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

This morning the line is up to 9 at my book.

[RSxxxxx]

johnny, i would suggest finding a new book

pinnaclesports.com has the best lines and reduced juice on all games by far! i have an account with them and intertops.com to allows me to bet with whoever has the lowest line. intertops.com is great cuz they have live betting. ive made 1k this season just from middling out my bets live!

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

Yeah, it's seriously at 9. WTF. I've noticed my book (Bowmans) seems to pad the favourites compared to other books. This CAN be a good thing if you're a dog player however.

I did get my 3 units early at 6.5 so I'm happy....but yeah, maybe I'll look into another book. Thanks rs.

[RSxxxxx]

johnny, you can tak advantage of there high lines...i mean hell, putting 1100 to win 1000 on philly -6.5 and 1100 to win 1000 on cleveland +10 (im sure it will reach that), youd essentialyt be risking 100$ to win 2000$ for the win to be by 7-10 points

thought i wouldnt do that against philly since they prolly kill clev, its can be used for other games that you see can be kept to a TD win....i did it withs t louis and TB this weekend, won 400$ instead of 200$, and at worse, i would just break even on the night if wilkins wouldve made that fg

it can never hurt to have 2 books!

[Stifler's Mom]

So true. I use a bunch of books and I can almost always get a full point in my favor on the team I like....except on the -3 lines that they usually just juice instead of moving....but even on those, sometimes I can find a -2.5 or a +3.5 somewhere.

As far as the Eagles line goes, Philly -7 is either the biggest gift ever or one hell of a sucker bet. I would lean towards Philly -7, but usually if it looks too good to be true....you know how it turns out alot of the time....so I'm probably staying away.

GL with that bet

[RSxxxxx]

if anything, if it was too good to be true, it was true...at least i found the last 5 times with philly, NE, indy, denver -1 at oak last week, minnisota past 3 weeks, etc....

[raider nick]

I don't know what everyone else is seeing with this game, but i reviewed this line long and hard and could not believe my eyes.
There is no way that the eagles will cover this many points on the road against the browns. I realize what a good team the eagles have been, but they are not the patriots.

who are you kidding....


browns + 7 10units

[Horfin]

Thought I would jump in for what it is worth. I think on its face the line looks like a gift. But I have run the numbers and this game isn't (at least to me) as open and shut as some of you see.

Just some thoughts:

Cleveland at Home:
+3 to Baltimore = Win Straight up 20-3
+3 to Washington = WIn Straight up 17-13
-3 to Cincinnati - Win straight up 34-17

According to my numbers taht is 71-33 (or 23 ppg to 11)

Philadelphia on the Road:
at Detriot (Philly -4.5) win 30-13
at Chicago (Philly -9.5) win 19-9

According to my numbers that is 49-22 (or 24 to 11 ppg)

Cleveland's HOME opponents have a combined record of 5-6

Philly's ROAD oppents record: 5-10

I see a lot of similarilties.

Another thing to Consider:

Last year Minnesota was 6-0 playing at home versus a lowly 2-4 NY Giants team. . . . Result: NYGiants win 29-17.

Last Year Philly was riding a 9 game winning streak plays at home vs. San Fransisco (6-8 at the time). . . . Philly favored by 7 points.......San Fran wins 31-28

Last year Cleaveland was a dog of 7 or more 5 times, Cleveland was 4-1 ATS



I have run the numbers, the way I always do and I come up with a line that should be Philly -7. I see value in Philly -7 because the oddsmakers haven't been to good at setting lines for them. Clearly Philly is the better team. I like Philly, my .02 is just be careful, there is no game that is worth betting the farm.

Good Luck who ever you take.

Horf!n

[Queen of Football]

Im on Philly too. Philly has too much Power. Big difference is the Home vs Away Power Philly - Away Ratings (2-0): 67.524 (1) They have a better Power Rating Away than at home. CLE Home Ratings (2-0): 35.011 (10). Now there is one more thing. Philly - Away Non-League Power Ratings: 2-0 58.742 CLE Home Non-League Power Ratings: 1-0 16.417. CLE Rankings: Points: 21.163 (22) Home Ratings: 2-0 29.038 Non-League Power Ratings: 1-2 19.288 PHILLY - Rankings: Points: 46.867 (1) Away Ratings: 2-0 48.149 Non-League Power Ratings: 3-0 47.320. Philly just has too much Power for CLE to handle.

GL on whatever you play.

Queen :cool:

[RSxxxxx]

great to see you on philly queen!

just to make sure, the higher the power rating the better right?

[JohnnyMapleLeaf]

RS....yeah, playing both sides is something I've looked at doing with my books generous lines, and I saw you did exactly that with St. Louis. I wouldn't do it with Philly here, as I think it might be a blowout, but I might try it some other time. My book has the line right at Monday opening, then a certain favourite can move 3 points during the week. If I get the opening line early, might be something I'd try.

Thanks!