ELines early look: LOU-MIA OVER??

[elines]

Hi folks.

Little early for my service to post the O/U, however, for all you trend followers...the trend is not always your friend. I realize the D both teams have been throwing at each other's opponents. But never soley base your play on a trend (and here it looks like an obvious play on the under). With that said, I am not saying the over is the play here. What I am saying (or trying to do) is to open your mind to the possibilty that this game will fly over. Why? Please look at LOU's opponents: KEN (90 rating total D, 107 rating total O), ARMY (117D, 64O), NC (111D, 41O), and ECAR (114D, 92O). Now MIA opponents FLAST (10D, 53O), LOUTECH (87D, 74O), HOU (66D, 60O), and GT (32D, 71O). Numbers speak for themselves. LOU hasn't played a team NEAR the caliber of MIA, who has a #2 rated total defense after playing their opponents. I think LOU's #4 rated offense and #9 rated defense is OVER-rated.

As for the side...9 points is plenty of points...unless the score is 28-10. Miami might just bust the BCS life right out of LOU. I have been a big fan of LOU this year...but here's where I must leave emotion out of my choice tonight.

[elines]

I realize it looks like I am contradicting myself (38 points / voicing argment for the O). Not at all. I am just putting it out there for you. I was not in any way trying to predict what "I" think the score will be. I was merely speaking to the side and the 9 points. Just a sample of how to cover the 9. However, I think the score will more likely be 34-21. Tough play tonight to lay the 9...just like last night...

GL to all...and sorry for the double post...

[boaty1302]

Are you a betting man, or a sports psycologist? I really don't know what you are trying to say. What I gathered from your numbers is that the offenses that both teams have faced are pretty much even.

It is just the Defenses that each team has faced is where the discrepensy is. So you are saying that Miami has scored on good D's before. Well, no kidding. Look at the rush defense for louisville...it is ranked #3 I believe. Miami has a rushing based offense. Try looking at what the rushing D is for those teams. that is where the true information is.

Ultimately, you keep the ball on the ground, you tick away the clock. Less time to score big points. The math says take the under here.

[TheGame1020]

Yeah boaty, your an idiot and your post has made absolutely no sense. You seem to be arguing with yourself. Miami's Rush offense will chew the clock up and both defenses should keep each other from scoring. Atleast try and make a little sense when posting your scaring me.

[boaty1302]

Sounds like you are just trying to creat hype or confusion so that you don't have to actually make a play. Have you considered running for President in 2004???

[elines]

You guys are funny. Seriously.

You are correct...I am pointing out the fact that LOU has faced some pretty weak D's and not so great O's (I ain't eating the cheese)...so yeah, their D will be rated high as opposed to their rated D if they faced Auburn or OK in a couple of previous games. I also realize that almost every team's stats are still a little out of whack, with the exception of say Wisky...

As a sports Psychologist, it is my determination that every thing you think will happen...most of the time will not. Last week, So. Miss and Houston should have played a game with not such a high OVER. Well, they did. Everything points to a line of scrimmage controlled game from both teams tonight.

Here's my opinion of what I believe will happen.

Both teams can't afford a loss. There is a lot of hype. Thursday night ESPN game. High emotions. Things may start out the way you would suggest. But I believe after a couple of turnovers and scores, one team will need to play catch up. And it may very well be in the second half (like last night's game). As such, run control offense will sputtter for the catch up team...and they will either score (adding more points to the total) or turn the ball over, as well as momentum, which will also lead to more scoring.

But I could be wrong. But my 3 cats told me I would have a fighting chance on the over tonight.

GL guys!