Rams tonight???....I need urgent help!!!

[Rothko1000]

First, I'm done with the NFL! This weekend will be my swan song. I come here to see pics and the ones everybody loves (Oakland) get blown out! I'm not disrespecting a single person here....because I know it is about playing your own pics. Period. I'm just frustrated with the NFL and need some final advice for tonight. Even if I win tonight.....I'm fckn done!

I want to bet a nickel and I'm leaning towards the Rams. I know I sound like a sniveling newbie.....but I want to see if I can get out of the hole a bit! I know it's not good money mgt. and everything screams at me to stop......but I want this last bet and that's final! Thanks for everyone's help!

[mike333]

Im gonna be on SF tonight. havent pulled the trigger yet but Im not gonna think twice about this.

[GMoney]

I like the Niners as well....OVER too:thumbs:

[ToP]

Niners here Bro, but GL with whatever you play.:thumbs:

[Big Pimpin]

HEY you fucking newbie...not sure..late games left yet but leaning towards St. L myself

[lbjacj]

Here's what I played!GL

2) BET ID=85905481
6.5 Point Teaser (2 Teams) 10/03/04 18:08 ET
55.00/45.80 Result: Pending
Rams(StLouis)
49ers(SanFrancisco) 10/03/04 (20:35 ET)
49ers(SanFrancisco) +10 (-115)

Rams(StLouis)
49ers(SanFrancisco) 10/03/04 (20:35 ET)
Over 38.5
:thumbs:

[wouldyou]

Wait till tomorrow Ravens & over

[HOMEDAWG]

ROTHKO1000.. Sorry about your luck... Don't quit now, it's early in the season and this is too much fun.. I posted earlier:

HOUSTON +2.5 (I usually don't let stats influence me, but there are some amazing numbers on this one:OAK is 1-8 ATS last nine vs. sub .500 teams....Texans are 8-3 ATS last 11 vs. winning teams.. first time ever TEXANS win 2 in a row.


Having a great day and want to pass some of it to you::::


TAKE 7X7 ALL THE WAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


GL.... YES ANOTHER HOME DOG!!!!

[QuickNick]

Rothko, DON'T bet it unless you can afford to lose it and if you are set to bet a nickle, there is only 1 PLAY tonight and thats OVER the Total!!! I do like SF a little, but, the wager is OVER!!!!!!! Rothko BOL Bro!!!!!

[Steel]

Rothko, I played the Rams. 49ers look like shit and they appear to be uncoached. I have not seen a 49er team look this bad in a long time. I know teams come off strong after being shut out but this may not be the only time the niners are shut out. Are the Rams good, NO!! But they are a lot better then the 49ers even on a bad day. If I was you I would cut my loses. No need to throw money away. Good Luck with whatever you decide.

[Rothko1000]

Thanks everyone for your advice on tonight's game!

Quick.....I got it, bro! I won't like it if I lose.....but it aint' going to bust me! I know what you are saying and I appreciate the words!

Steel....I like the Rams, too! I haven't decided yet....pulling up is definately a solid option! Thanks bro!

[cdhender]

I'm playing the Rams as well. SF is a terrible football team.

[rjp]

If you take the Rams tonight you need your head examined!!

[chanman]

I am also a bit worried for everyone is on STL so I teased the game to give sf +10.5 and over 38.. bol on whatever you do bro!

[Steel]

rjp, I respect you as a capper but that is a crazy statement. We all have the right to pick who we want off of what we cap. Your calling me crazy for picking the Rams??? I don't get it? Had a HUGE day today and the Rams are my final leg. Can't change now it was placed long ago. The 49ers suck and they suck big time. The Rams have not been all that but they have looked better then 3/ points over the Niners. GL

[rjp]

Steel, you're right... let me rephrase: if you take EITHER team tonight you need your head examined!! lol

I still believe SF wins outright. :thumbs:

[Big Pimpin]

Originally posted by rjp
If you take the Rams tonight you need your head examined!!


explanation needed....why????....SF sucks smooths D

[emericj]

I'd rather bet on the coin toss than for or against either of these two teams.

[rjp]

PIMP, what exactly have the Rams shown you this year?? Sure, San Francisco was shutout last week, but that just gives them extra motivation as HOME DOGs!! 49ers aren't nearly as bad as they looked @Seattle. I have SF winning by 1 point tonight, and if Rattay starts that just makes things sweeter for the 49ers.

[Steel]

rjp, I can agree with that statement. :thumbs: GL

BP, Smooth doesn't have a D, that would be called split tail my friend!!!! LMAO

[Horatio]

sure I would bet a literal nickel on this game. Neither team impresses me enough to risk much of anything, but I think SF is the lesser team.

[HOMEDAWG]

RJP, I'm with you...
Last time out for these teams @ SF --- SF WINS 30-10..

STL is 4-13 ATS in their last 17 away


SAN FRAN with a tougher schedule so far this year both played
NO & ATLANTA.. SAN FRAN ALMOST BEAT ATLANTA, ST LOUIS GETS BLOWN OUT BY ATLANTA!!! BOTH PLAYED NO CLOSE AND LOST!!
ST LOUIS beat ARIZONA and SAN FRAN. PLAYED SEATTLE..(high superbowl contender)


*** 49er's in this one and who knows maybe even an outright win!!!!!!!!!
GL TO EVERYONE!!!!!!!!
:gulp:

[BetTheHouse]

Easy...........IMO go with the UNDER tonight, this will help.

Im also leaning on the Rams, but Im not gonna play the side.
Hope u'll win back some $$$$$$$$$ tonight.

GL 2 Everyone

[Stifler's Mom]

I believe SF wins this game outright. The Rams have no defense since Lovie Smith left for Chicago, and offensively they play like dung outdoors on grass surfaces...and that was true of them even when they were a good team. They suck almost as badly as SF now. Bulger looks like he's gonna shit his pants in pressure situations and throws a ton of interceptions.

SF lost to Atlanta by 3 pts at home, and they're a ton better than St. Louis right now. They lost at New Orleans, but were competitive. They got hammered in Seattle, but Seattle may be the best team in the NFC, and the Rams aren't anywhere near being in Seattle's class...plus Dorsey QB'd for SF in that game and he sucks. Rattay is back tonight and he's at least a little better, plus knows a little more about the offense.

The Rams haven't really done anymore than SF has this season either if you think about it. They had a come from behind win in week 1 at home vs Arizona, but then they took an ass kicking in Atlanta, and also suffered an OT loss at home last week to New Orleans.

So between the 2 common opponents this year, that's a similar result with both teams vs New Orleans, but the Rams played them at home, SF played em on the road. Atlanta beat St. Louis much worse than they beat SF, although ST. Louis did face them in Atlanta while SF had them at home.

I don't think SF is a bad bet tonight. No team is ever as bad as they look in the NFL for one week, especially when they played at Seattle. Home field is big IMO and I don't see a decisive enough advantage for St. Louis in this one to lay 3.5 or 4 points on the road.

Just my opinion. I figured I'd throw it out there.

I also like the OVER.

GL all :thumbs:

[BoKnows]

Dog Day Afternoon!!
Niners and the points!

[Stifler's Mom]

I didn't track yet how the dogs did overall, but the home dogs were either 5-4 ATS, or 4-4-1 ATS, depending on if you got TB at +3 or +3.5.

On top of that, all 4 of the ATS losers as home dogs (Miami, Buffalo, Jax and Chicago) all actually had chances to cover the spread as well, but just couldn't quite get it done.

[Horatio]

now i need to wonder about my ML pick. Sheesh.

I have a hard time thinking of a guy like Rattay being a saviour for any team in the NFL:maybe the CFL...

But, good points Stifler et al. I may hedge the small amount even smaller. Still think there is more to St Louis than meets the eye...they should have won last week, and then what would the line be?

Ack...GL everyone whatever th play...:gulp:

[Big Pimpin]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by rjp
PIMP, what exactly have the Rams shown you this year?? Sure, San Francisco was shutout last week, but that just gives them extra motivation as HOME DOGs!! 49ers aren't nearly as bad as they looked @Seattle. I have SF winning by 1 point tonight, and if Rattay starts that just makes things sweeter for the 49ers. [/QUOTE

not much for sure....just think the rams are much better team...no play for me but if i had to pick it would be the rams....until SF shows some sort of life have to against them

[Bobo66]

Damn bro....I don't like hearing you go through this crap. Drop me a email. For what its worth I like SF and the over. Slow down and relax. This shit is a marathon, not a sprint. You are one of my favorite guys in here and I hope you can pull out of this soon.

[rjp]

Let me also throw out there that a majority of the wagers have been on the Rams, yet the line hasn't moved.

[Horatio]

I gotta say as much as I do not like Martz, he is a better coach than Dennis the Menace any day....

[badbeat]

I will go with the Niners tonight. They may not have the flashy weaponry of St. Louis, but the Rams are not stout at all. They have yet to extract a turnover from an opponent and have allowed the most sacks in the league. Mike Martz is an idot. I swear people still have the idea stuck in their heads that the Rams are a good team based on their big offensive year when they won the SB. They have been in decline for a while yet the public still loves them. They are a go-against team IMO, not a go-with, and this strategy has worked well as the Rams have yet to cover this season! What will really be funny is when they go to Seattle next week and get dismantled.

Taking the 3.5 (2 units) and the +155 ML (1 unit) with the Niners.

[The War Dogs]

ST LOUIS is 1-6 ATS (-5.6 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in road games as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games in all games over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 19-36 ATS (-20.6 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 5-1 ATS (+3.9 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.

[Stifler's Mom]

For what it's worth, I do believe the touts are on St Louis tonight, judging from what I have seen at another forum that I browsed today that posts service plays. I know one particular tout is on them that went 1-1 today on sides, and is 1-9 on the year on sides overall (according to the records kept on that site).

Personally I wouldn't let that effect my decision one way or the other, cause I believe most touts are about break even guys anyway, but I know some of you like to fade touts (and some may follow them i suppose), so I thought I'd throw that out there.

[TheGame1020]

I like St. Louis, SF is not that horrible of a team. They play hard and could win this game. But I think Martz is mad tonight he should have them playing like the greatest show on turf. RJP also your calling this guy crazy for taking STL, judging from your record in your sig I really don't think you should be giving anyone advice. Your respected I know but you don't need to berate the guy and tell him he needs his head examined. GL man!

I also was an amazing 5-1-1 today, finally boucing back from my Week 1-2 and losses. Bury the man tonight, whichever you choose!

[HOMEDAWG]

WHY CAN'T WE ALL JUST GET ALONG PULL TOGETHER!!!:gulp:

















49ER'S WIN WIN WIN WIN WIN WIN WIN WIN WIN WIN !!!!!!!!!!!!!! IT'S BEEN A DOG DAY!!!!!!!!

[5150]

Here Here 1020

Could not agree more with your statement.

GL to all

[Stifler's Mom]

Hmmmm....when exactly was the last time St. Louis played like "the greatest show on turf"? And like i said, even when they were "the greatest show on turf" their high flying circus act was slowed considerably when not playing in the friendly confines of the dome.

I'm not saying you're wrong for liking them tonight, but this ain't the same Rams team as back then by a long shot.

[rjp]

:thumbs:

[QuickNick]

Let's face it guys, the better team DOES NOT ALWAYS WIN!!!!If they did we would all win, then there would be no books to take the action, I'll say it again SF and the OVER I like better. I too have had a GREAT day of wagering with 2 - 12* winners and a 5-Team parlay. That does not mean SF is going to win, but, I like my chances. BOL whomever you bet!!!!!

[Rothko1000]

Stiff......you're a butthole! LOL! I'm still laughing about that post!

Quick.....you are right...the best does not always win! But what trend do you follow? There are 100 different trends to go by and to me they add up to fckn nothing! I mean, you can go by home dogs stats and ATS stats all you want.....nothing seems to be more effective than simply flipping a coin!?!? It's frustrating to lose...that's the thing! I go 1-7 today while watching my bozo friend (who rarely ever bets) hit a 4-team parlay for $500.00! He never knew he hit it until he called me about the games...he said he had been outside with his girlfriend PLAYING HORSESHOES!?!?!? Of all the fckn dumb luck, you know!!! This asshole wasn't even watching the games! I don't know....I'm getting to hate this feeling on Sunday! That's why I have called it my swan song...period!

Bobo....I know what you're saying and I appreciate the sentiment! I just can't fade these got damn fumbles and interceptions every other play!

Guys...thanks for the comments! I hope you all had a profitable Sunday! GL on your plays tonight!

Oh yeah.....I TOOK THE RAMS!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Stifler's Mom]

Roth...things are going tough for me right now in every sport. I shoulda stopped playing bases when I was way ahead and things started getting weird and unpredictable, but i allowed myself to get suckered in by playing meaningless games. I did the same thing in the NBA last year. I was ahead even more in NBA than I was in bases and I blew almost all of it playing games that I shouldn't have.

NFL started strange like this last year too...the public cleaned up, but once the oddsmakers got a good grip on the teams, it became easy to spot the plays the public was totally lost about and fade em and come out ahead a nice amount. Hopefully the same holds true this year.

Also, the public won on a bunch of games they should have lost today because of stupid things that added points on the faves final score at the end of games.

I'm as frustrated as you are buddy....but we'll get em back. The middle of the season, and then in the playoffs, in any sport is generally when it's easier to make $$. That time is approaching for football.

[Rothko1000]

Stiff...if you don't mind me asking....what are favorite capping tools for NFL??? What do you focus on when looking at matchups??? Thanks bro!

[Stifler's Mom]

Well, in the NFL I generally like to take + points, especially home dogs. I go alot on what I see when I watch teams play (I have NFL ticket so i see all of em).

I also check out trends and such, but some of them are irrelevant...such as tonight, so I try to stay away from that in NFL and go with my gut.

For example, the Rams SUCK on the road since forever, but SF is so bad it doesn't matter. SF very well may be the absolute worst team in the NFL this year from what I'm watching tonight. Their O does nothing but self destruct and the defense is just pathetic. These guys are making St. Louis look good, which they are NOT....but the public doesn't see it this way, and after this blowout, they'll look to play "The greatest show on turf" at any price, so I'll look to fade St. Louis in the near future when they get favored by too much because of this game.

I also like to look for undervalued teams like Arizona & Jacksonville (although the line caught up to Jax this week) and take them. I won on Jax in weeks 1, 2 and 3 as a dog, but took Indy this week cause I would basically take Indy anytime they are laying only 3 points (unless it was like in New England in late December or something).

So i guess to answer your question, I don't have any concrete set of tools or stats I go by, but rather try to go with my gut and what I see on the field, fade the public, and go with undervalued teams. That's why my write-ups rarely include anything similar to "Team A is 13-2 ATS on natural surface when playing west of the Mississippi River at night when there are more than 32,345 fans in attendance and the temperature is above 52 degrees" LOL

That probably didn't make much sense, but that's how i go about it. Sometimes it works, and sometimes it don't

[rjp]

Glad I didn't need the 49ers to have a winning day. :thumbs:

[Horatio]

had the Rams. All you have to know about the 49ers is they lost T.O. and Garcia, and are currently handicapped by atrocious salary cap decisions of the past, for which they are paying now. As George Allen once said, "the future is now" and that is not a good thing for a profligate team like the 49ers. They bet the house a few years ago:they will be living in the gutter for a couple of years, if not more.