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Stanley
09-28-2004, 05:58 AM
Outright plays (1.5pts):

Tiger Woods to win 11/2 @ BetInternet, Sportingbet and Sporting Odds
Mickelson has withdrawn, Vijay has withdrawn and Els is struggling with his game. It is all set up for Tiger to win his fourth American Express Championship in five years. His game has been improving recently with 2nd place finishes in his last two events, he played better than his foursome/fourballs record suggests at the Ryder Cup and he embarrassed the host course two years ago with his winning score. At 5/1 and above, there is value here.

Sergio Garcia to win 20/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
The joint leading point winner for the European side two weeks ago, Garcia played an instrumental, Sevvy-like, role at Oakland Hills. If he can retain some of that form, which he had already displayed in finished 3rd earlier this month in the European Masters, he will be a strong contender this week. His record in Ireland is also in his favour. It was at Druid's Glen in 1999 that he earned his first professional win and two years ago he closed with a final round 62 to finish 7th.

Luke Donald to win 50/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power
Another star performer at the Ryder Cup. But that was always expected from the rookie. He had already won on the PGA Tour and had won two of his last three starts on the European Tour. He did not play in 2002, but he has emerged a world class player and will not be out of his depth in this field.

Stanley
09-29-2004, 11:07 AM
Matchup plays (1.5pts):

Stuart Appleby to beat Stephen Ames -110 @ Olympic
Appleby is coming into form nicely just as he did towards the end of last season. Quite the opposite for Ames who has missed four cuts in six starts since winning the Western Open in July.

Stuart Appleby to beat Lee Westwood -110 @ William Hill and Easybets
Expect this to be a closer match given Westwood's improvement in form, but he is still far from consistent. In eight common events this year, he has finished ahead of Appleby on only two occasions.

Alex Cejka to beat Thomas Levet +110 @ Pinnacle
Cejka is hardly a consistent player, but with four top-10 finishes in his last six starts he should not be so unfancied against Levet. After all, Levet has finished ahead of him only once in six common events in 2004 and is more likely than most to suffer a letdown after the emotions of the Ryder Cup.
(also available at Five Dimes)

Davis Love to beat Padraig Harrington +110 @ Five Dimes
Really expecting a strong week from Love and had I heard about Tiger's shoulder problems before making the outright play, I would have backed Love in that market instead. This looks to be the perfect course for his power game and he does play well in Europe - in the last three years, he has a 8-2-1 h2h record against Harrington in WGC and European Tour events. Certainly worth a play at these odds.
(also available at Pinnacle and Olympic)

Davis Love to beat Chris DiMarco -110 @ Olympic
There are two strong reasons for this play. The first is that instead of resting after the Ryder Cup, DiMarco competed in the 84 Lumber Classic last week and finished 3rd. There should be little petrol in the tank if he gets into contention this weekend. The other reason is that DiMarco is very unlikely to get into contention anyway. There have been ten WGC and European Tour strokeplay events in which these two have played together and Davis Love has finished ahead of DiMarco on every single occasion!
(available generally)

Stanley
10-03-2004, 06:32 PM
Outrights - FINAL RESULT: 1-2; +0.00pts

Woods 9th
Garcia 4th
Donald 11th

Strong performance from the selections who had been in the top-10 virtually all week. Didn't know about Tiger's injury on Monday else he would not have been a selection, but would not have picked Els anyway!

Matchups - FINAL RESULT: 1-3-1; -3.30pts

Appleby/Ames WON by 4
Appleby/Westwood LOST by 2
Cejka/Levet TIED (Push)
Love/Harrington LOST by 11
Love/DiMarco LOST by 1

Poor performance, particularly by Love who played poorly in the final round to surrender the lead against DiMarco.

WGC ytd
Outrights: 2-4; +58.88pts
Matchups: 4-4; -0.30pts

All Tours ytd
Outrights: 80-316; +266.21pts
Matchups: 356-278; +70.15pts