rjp
09-18-2004, 04:25 PM
YTD: 45-44-2 (+4.58 units)
Large card for Sunday.
Jacksonville ML (+144) over Denver
Denver/Jacksonville U38.5 (-110)
Last week Jacksonville pulled out a win in Buffalo in which they really had no business winning. Their defense played tough, but their offense let them down for most of the game. Denver played on Sunday night against a KC team that's struggling through WR issues and has yet to get their defensive issues corrected.
The key reasoning behind Jacksonville winning this game comes from a few areas. For one, Denver comes to Jacksonville one day ahead of their normal schedule to make an attempt at becoming accustomed to Jacksonville's heat and humidity. You don't become acclimated to this type of environment overnight, which is what Denver's attempting to do. Conditioning will play a key role in this game with Jacksonville getting the edge. They other key for Jacksonville will come from the running game. Denver will face a much better rush D from Jacksonville than what they saw from KC last week at home. Both of these teams come with a run-first approach, and I believe Jacksonville's run offense will show much improvement against Denver's run D. This will give Jacksonville a big advantage in time of possession and allow them to do what they want--control the ball and eat the clock.
Also, this game presents itself as a possible letdown for Denver. They won at home against a division rival. Historically this poses trouble for Denver when they travel the next week when faced in a similar situation.
I believe we'll see a heavy dose of rushing attacks from both teams. This will help to grind down the clock, and I believe we'll see Denver's lack of conditioning for this type of environment begin to show in the second half. This should allow Jacksonville to win this by a FG or so. I like for a final score around 17-13 in favor of Jacksonville.
Pittsburgh ML (+164) over Baltimore
This will be a very heated game in which both teams will want to rip the other’s heads off. There’s no mistaking the fact that both of these are run-first teams. Last week Baltimore struggled to run the ball against Cleveland, as they were without T Ogden and C Flynn. Ogden is expected to play, but Flynn is still out with a broken collarbone. Pittsburgh played a good game against Oakland last week, but they were unable to stop them in obvious passing situations, especially as the game drew to a close.
This week Pittsburgh goes to Baltimore where they lost last year, 13-10. The team that rushes the ball with more success will have the best chance of winning this game. It is in my opinion that Pittsburgh will have the advantage. Make no mistake about it, Baltimore has a good defense, and they play very good at home. However, they will still be without LB Boulware, and they will be without their starting NT K. Gregg. This will hurt Baltimore’s run defense, as Pittsburgh is a balanced team. Baltimore will not be able to cheat up against the run, as Pittsburgh has the weapons to hit them with a big play downfield through the air. On the other side of the ball the exact opposite situation exists. Although Pro Bowl T Ogden will provide tremendous run support by being healthy for this game, Pittsburgh will have the luxury of crowding the line to provide run support as Baltimore does not have the tools to consistently make them pay through the air. In Baltimore’s obvious passing situations, I expect Pittsburgh to blitz and disrupt Boller’s timing and force him into making costly mistakes.
The Ravens do not want to start the season off 0-2 overall and 0-2 in the division, but Pittsburgh will use this to fuel their fire and smack Baltimore in the mouth with their hard nosed rushing attack and eek out a victory here. I like for a final score around 20-13 in favor of Pittsburgh.
Houston ML (+152) over Detroit
These two teams played seemingly exact opposite games last week. Houston was on the wrong side of 4 turnovers at home, where as Detroit was on the right side of 4 turnovers and a blocked FG returned for a TD. I don’t expect Houston to make those mistakes again here, and I don’t expect for Detroit to be helped by the other team’s mistakes.
Detroit finally won on the road last week in Chicago. It took 4 turnovers and a blocked FG returned for a TD to do it, but that’s part of the game and sometimes you get all the breaks to go your way. Not all was rosy for Detroit, however, as they lost second year WR Rogers to a second season-ending collarbone injury. The Lions will again be without LB Bailey, and their Pro Bowl CB Bly suffered an injury that will sideline him for this game. Houston comes into this game healthy, and they will be motivated to reduce their costly mistakes that allowed San Diego to beat them at home last week. Detroit was beat solidly in both the rushing and passing department last week, where as Houston was fairly even with San Diego in both rushing and passing. I expect this game to be won on the ground, and I expect Houston’s offensive line to give Davis plenty of lanes to allow them to control the clock and win this game. Houston’s defense should give up their fair share of points, but with Houston controlling the clock pressure will be put on Detroit’s offense and I expect Detroit to be forced into making mistakes late in the game that will allow Houston to hold on for the win. I also believe this is a letdown situation for Detroit, as they were finally able to win on the road, but the win masked their inability to move the ball and score points on the offense. I believe this will cause expectations to be too high, and they will have to rely on their defense to force turnovers if they want to have any chance at winning this game.
I lean to the OVER here as neither defense is all that great, but I will stay away because I believe there is a good chance Houston and Davis can control the clock for a great portion of this game, thus holding the score total down. Either way, I like for a possible final score of 23-20 in favor of Houston.
Tennessee ML (+102) over Indianapolis
There is a lot of hype around this game and Indianapolis possibly starting the season off 0-2. It’s very possibly for Indianapolis to be 0-2 after this game, and I believe it’s the likely scenario. The Colts were torched through the air last week in New England. The Titans beat a struggling Miami team last week on the road.
This week Indianapolis comes into this game with a hurt and young defense into a hostile environment in Tennessee. The Titans come in with a question mark on running back, but it appears very likely that RB Brown will be a full strength for this game. I expect the Titans to start with a heavy dose of Brown, forcing the Colts to attempt to cheat up to stop the run and help their young and depleted defense. This will setup play-action opportunities for the Titans, and give McNair & Co. the opportunity to pick apart at the Colts’ secondary. The Colts have an explosive offense with their tools, but they’re going to have a tough time finding their way onto the field here with Brown and the Titans controlling the clock. The Titans lost both games to the Colts last year and will be fired up to not allow that to happen again this year, especially on their home turf. The Colts do not want to start the season 0-2, but that motivation alone will not provide enough to overcome their defensive issues.
Colts fans could be in for a long day, as they’re going to be yearning to see their offense on the field, which will be an event that won’t be seen enough for the Colts to have a chance at winning this game. I like for a possible final score of 27-17 in favor of the Titans.
Chicago +8.5 (-110) over Green Bay
These two teams played two very different games last week. Chicago made more mistakes than should be allowed and lost at home, where as Green Bay played a perfect game on the road. The Bears have lost the last 7 meetings against the Packers. While I don’t expect that to end here, I do expect the Bears to make this a competitive game with GB winning in the end.
Both teams come into this game fairly healthy, with the only real question marks revolving around the Packers depth at LB and RB. Defensively, Chicago played a solid game against the Lions last week. The key to their struggles was their offensive turnovers. I expect HC Smith to make some adjustments and attempt to run the ball more to take some pressure off of Grossman. The Packers are a much better team than the Lions, and the same types of mistakes in this game would be impossible to overcome. The Packers have gotten comfortable beating the Bears as of late, and the Bears last SU win in this rivalry was in GB. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bears up early in this game, as the Packers may suffer a little fire after their convincing win over last year’s NFC champions. Favre and Co. have the tools to win this game and they will be supported by their home crowd.
I expect this game to be played close to the chest by both sides, with the Packers winning in the end by close to a TD. I like for a final score around 23-17 in favor of the Packers.
Washington –2.5 (-122) over New York Giants
These two teams are in two different positions, with they keys revolving around injuries and their respective QB situations. Last week Washington won their first game of the season at home against TB. They showed a very good looking defense, some of which was helped by TB’s offensive issues. The Giants lost their first game of the Coughlin era on the road in Philadelphia.
The Giants have major issues by way of depth on defense and offensive line. The Giants will be without reserve FS Stoutmire for this game, which not only affects depth at that position, but it also affects alignment and play on special teams. The Giants will also be without starting LB Emmons, and he will be replaced by a rookie. The Giants, somewhere subconsciously, have a QB issue with Warner and Manning. Though it doesn’t seem very apparent, the situation they have greatly affects the play of the offense as a whole. This type of situation is tough to overcome, and it is magnified by their issues on defense and the offensive line. The Redskins come into this game fairly healthy, and I expect them to attack the Giants on the ground to help setup some play-action to really open up this game. It’s going to be tough for the Giants to play an overall good game here, and Washington is going to benefit from that.
Until the Giants can get everyone on the same page and have off-the-field distractions eliminated (such as players being fined for not being early enough to meetings), they’re going to have a tough time beating anyone. I like for a final score around 20-13 in favor of Washington, but with the Giants defense things could easily open up.
New Orleans –7.5 (+100) over San Francisco
Last week the Saints lost at home to a good Seattle team, and the 49ers lost at home to the Falcons where they suffered an unfortunate injury to QB Rattay. Much is being made of the injury to Rattay. While this is a key injury to the 49ers offense, Rattay won’t be the only player out that will hobble the 49ers on the road in New Orleans.
Dorsey will make his first NFL start against the Saints in New Orleans on Sunday. This alone makes this tough for the 49ers. However, a lesser-publicized injury to starting center Newberry will make things next to impossible for the 49ers to have consistent success against the Saints. San Francisco also has issues on defense. They will have reduced depth on the defensive line with both DE Williams and DE Carter being ruled out of this game. Also, starting CB Rumph has been ruled out of this game and will be replaced by a rookie. The only key injuries for the Saints are on the defensive line, which will hurt, but will be unnoticeable against the 49ers struggling offense. I expect the Saints to blitz early and often against the 49ers’ new starting center/QB pair, and I also expect them to use play-action to setup long downfield throws to Horn and Co. I believe both Brooks and McAllister will have big games against the 49ers here.
I lean to an OVER play, but the 49ers will have a tough time scoring points. I don’t expect the Saints to make costly errors against the 49ers like they did against the Seahawks last week, and I like for a final score around 30-17 in favor of the Saints.
St. Louis ML (+110) over Atlanta
Last week the Rams struggled against the Cardinals at home by making costly mistakes. The Falcons were helped by an injury to the 49ers starting QB to help propel them to a win on the road.
The Rams played a very sloppy game last week against the Cardinals. They won both the passing and rushing battles, but turnovers in the redzone (3 turnovers in all) prevented them from blowing the game open and winning by a larger margin. The Falcons matched the 49ers rushing attack last week in San Francisco, but were out gained through the air by Rattay and Dorsey. The Falcons having issues on the offensive line, specifically the left side, that cause them to have a tough time picking up blitzes and forcing bad throws and mistakes by the offense. I believe the Rams will exploit that in this game by blitzing the Falcons and forcing Vick into making mistakes. The Falcons will have trouble defending the pass in this game, and they will see a heavy dose of the run that will keep them on their toes. The Falcons issues were masked last week by the early injury to Rattay, but it was shown that their defense can be exploited through the air.
I expect Bulger and Co. to have a big game offensively making their fantasy owners happy, but making the Falcon faithful unhappy. The Atlanta crowd should be a factor in this game, but I like for a final score around 27-20 in favor of the Rams.
Carolina +6.5 (+101) over Kansas City
Both Carolina and Kansas City displayed far from acceptable performances last week. Carolina was unable to get any type of running game started after they tried to start the game off with a few fancy plays. KC’s defense started off on a bad note against the Broncos last week and didn’t look much better than they did last year.
Carolina will be without WR Smith and RB Davis for this game. Smith will be replaced by rookie Colbert, and Foster will start in place of Davis. Kansas city will most likely be without two starts in this game, DE Holliday and SS Wesley. Neither had practiced as of Thursday and are listed as questionable for this game. KC’s defense allowed 202 yards on the ground and 230 yards through the air. Carolina had just 38 yards on the ground last week. The Panthers were –2 in the turnover ratio against Green Bay last week, making it next to impossible for Carolina to come out victorious. Both teams will be motivated to do well, and I believe this will be a very close hard fought game. Foster is a more than capable RB, with his only downside being a tendency to fumble. This is the major reason as to why I feel Carolina will have a tough time winning this game outright, but I believe there is a very good chance Carolina stays within a TD of the Chiefs.
Carolina plays their best football as an underdog, and very few people are giving them a chance in this game. I expect Colbert to emerge with a surprisingly capable effort in place of Smith, and I expect Carolina’s defense to do a much better job of shutting down the run this week. I like for a final score around 27-24 in favor of KC.
Tampa Bay ML (+130) over Seattle
Last week the Bucs went to Washington under very draining circumstances. They had a short week to prepare following hurricane Frances, and they had to go into an energized crowd at the home of the Redskins. Tampa Bay had a very little chance to win last week, but they face a much more favorable conditions in this matchup against Seattle. Seattle went to New Orleans and forced the Saints into making costly errors that helped to make them victorious.
Seattle is expected to have RB Alexander, which will greatly help their offense. The Bucs will be without WR Galloway, further depleting their corps of WRs. I believe the Bucs will be motivated to respond after last week’s effort against the Redskins and eek out a victory at home. Seattle will be facing a much better run defense this week than they faced last week in New Orleans. Another detrimental factor for the Seahawks will be the hot and humid conditions. Like Denver, I believe Seattle will suffer from conditioning issues in this game helping propel Tampa Bay to victory.
I don’t expect a ton of scoring in this game, as I like for both teams to do a lot of rushing, so I lean to the UNDER here. I like for a final score around 20-13 in favor of Tampa Bay.
New England –7.5 (-106) over Arizona
Last week New England won a close game at home against the Colts. Arizona forced the Rams into costly mistakes that allowed them to keep the final margin of victory by the Rams just a TD. Arizona will face another team that will attack them through the air, but I believe the result will be a little more on sided than the one they saw last week.
New England will again be without RB Faulk, which will help to force them into another passing barrage from Brady & Co. Arizona will have a tough time forcing the NE offense to make mistakes similar to the ones the Rams made last week, which is a big reason as to why I believe NE will win this game by more than a TD. The Cardinals will have a tough time against New England’s defense, and I believe they will fall behind early and be forced to attack through the air, making them very one dimensional.
I don’t believe this will be a very high scoring affair, and I like for a final score around 27-13 in favor on New England.
San Diego ML (+153) over New York Jets
Last week the Chargers beat the Texas on the road, taking advantage of 4 turnovers by the Texans. The Jets took advantage of the Bengals at home last week and should be confident coming into this game.
I believe the key to this game will be the Jets young defense. I believe this game will play out similar to the Jets/Bengals game last week. Like the Bengals, the Jets will be sending a young defense on the road. The Chargers are no defensive powerhouse themselves, but they are at home and have arguably one of the best RBs in the league. Both teams come into this game fairly healthy. The Chargers look to have the motivational edge with this matchup, as it is their home opener, and they were embarrassed by the Jets two years ago and were called the “powder puffs”. They still remember that and are using it as motivation here.
I believe this will be a shootout type of game, but I believe the Chargers at home with a “stronger” defense will pull out the victory here. Make no mistake, the Jets are a good team, but the first road game for a young defense will be tough, especially against some of the weapons the Chargers have. I like for a final score around 33-27 in favor of the Chargers.
Cincinnati –5.5 (-103) over Miami
Last week the Bengals were defeated last week as they sent their young defense into a hostile environment on the road in New York. Miami, with a struggling offense, was defeated at home by the Titans last week.
This week the Bengals defense will have the comfort of the home crowd to help give them a lift similar to what the Jets enjoyed last week. Miami comes in with an injury-riddled team on both offense and defense, further hurt by their inconsistency at the QB position. The Bengals won’t be without their injury trouble, which includes starting SS Beckett being ruled out for the game, and he will be replaced by a rookie. Also, WR Warrick is questionable for this game. The Dolphins will be without DT Bowens, CB Surtain (who will be replaced by a rookie, as CB Howard is questionable and unlikely to play). On offense the Dolphins will be without RB Minor, RB Morris, and FB Konrad. As if the Dolphins running game wasn’t hurt before, the hit at depth will make it very tough for them to have much success. Miami will start QB Feeley, and he will have a tough time moving the ball without a running attack to keep the defense on their toes. The Bengals will be able to target a thin secondary with WR Johnson, and I expect RB Johnson to have a lot of success here. This could get ugly for the Dolphins unless they can somehow manage a running attack. Even still, this will not help keep the Bengals from targeting their depleted defense.
Palmer should get a lift from the home crowd here, and I like for a final score around 24-17 in favor of the Bengals.
GL!! :bbang:
Large card for Sunday.
Jacksonville ML (+144) over Denver
Denver/Jacksonville U38.5 (-110)
Last week Jacksonville pulled out a win in Buffalo in which they really had no business winning. Their defense played tough, but their offense let them down for most of the game. Denver played on Sunday night against a KC team that's struggling through WR issues and has yet to get their defensive issues corrected.
The key reasoning behind Jacksonville winning this game comes from a few areas. For one, Denver comes to Jacksonville one day ahead of their normal schedule to make an attempt at becoming accustomed to Jacksonville's heat and humidity. You don't become acclimated to this type of environment overnight, which is what Denver's attempting to do. Conditioning will play a key role in this game with Jacksonville getting the edge. They other key for Jacksonville will come from the running game. Denver will face a much better rush D from Jacksonville than what they saw from KC last week at home. Both of these teams come with a run-first approach, and I believe Jacksonville's run offense will show much improvement against Denver's run D. This will give Jacksonville a big advantage in time of possession and allow them to do what they want--control the ball and eat the clock.
Also, this game presents itself as a possible letdown for Denver. They won at home against a division rival. Historically this poses trouble for Denver when they travel the next week when faced in a similar situation.
I believe we'll see a heavy dose of rushing attacks from both teams. This will help to grind down the clock, and I believe we'll see Denver's lack of conditioning for this type of environment begin to show in the second half. This should allow Jacksonville to win this by a FG or so. I like for a final score around 17-13 in favor of Jacksonville.
Pittsburgh ML (+164) over Baltimore
This will be a very heated game in which both teams will want to rip the other’s heads off. There’s no mistaking the fact that both of these are run-first teams. Last week Baltimore struggled to run the ball against Cleveland, as they were without T Ogden and C Flynn. Ogden is expected to play, but Flynn is still out with a broken collarbone. Pittsburgh played a good game against Oakland last week, but they were unable to stop them in obvious passing situations, especially as the game drew to a close.
This week Pittsburgh goes to Baltimore where they lost last year, 13-10. The team that rushes the ball with more success will have the best chance of winning this game. It is in my opinion that Pittsburgh will have the advantage. Make no mistake about it, Baltimore has a good defense, and they play very good at home. However, they will still be without LB Boulware, and they will be without their starting NT K. Gregg. This will hurt Baltimore’s run defense, as Pittsburgh is a balanced team. Baltimore will not be able to cheat up against the run, as Pittsburgh has the weapons to hit them with a big play downfield through the air. On the other side of the ball the exact opposite situation exists. Although Pro Bowl T Ogden will provide tremendous run support by being healthy for this game, Pittsburgh will have the luxury of crowding the line to provide run support as Baltimore does not have the tools to consistently make them pay through the air. In Baltimore’s obvious passing situations, I expect Pittsburgh to blitz and disrupt Boller’s timing and force him into making costly mistakes.
The Ravens do not want to start the season off 0-2 overall and 0-2 in the division, but Pittsburgh will use this to fuel their fire and smack Baltimore in the mouth with their hard nosed rushing attack and eek out a victory here. I like for a final score around 20-13 in favor of Pittsburgh.
Houston ML (+152) over Detroit
These two teams played seemingly exact opposite games last week. Houston was on the wrong side of 4 turnovers at home, where as Detroit was on the right side of 4 turnovers and a blocked FG returned for a TD. I don’t expect Houston to make those mistakes again here, and I don’t expect for Detroit to be helped by the other team’s mistakes.
Detroit finally won on the road last week in Chicago. It took 4 turnovers and a blocked FG returned for a TD to do it, but that’s part of the game and sometimes you get all the breaks to go your way. Not all was rosy for Detroit, however, as they lost second year WR Rogers to a second season-ending collarbone injury. The Lions will again be without LB Bailey, and their Pro Bowl CB Bly suffered an injury that will sideline him for this game. Houston comes into this game healthy, and they will be motivated to reduce their costly mistakes that allowed San Diego to beat them at home last week. Detroit was beat solidly in both the rushing and passing department last week, where as Houston was fairly even with San Diego in both rushing and passing. I expect this game to be won on the ground, and I expect Houston’s offensive line to give Davis plenty of lanes to allow them to control the clock and win this game. Houston’s defense should give up their fair share of points, but with Houston controlling the clock pressure will be put on Detroit’s offense and I expect Detroit to be forced into making mistakes late in the game that will allow Houston to hold on for the win. I also believe this is a letdown situation for Detroit, as they were finally able to win on the road, but the win masked their inability to move the ball and score points on the offense. I believe this will cause expectations to be too high, and they will have to rely on their defense to force turnovers if they want to have any chance at winning this game.
I lean to the OVER here as neither defense is all that great, but I will stay away because I believe there is a good chance Houston and Davis can control the clock for a great portion of this game, thus holding the score total down. Either way, I like for a possible final score of 23-20 in favor of Houston.
Tennessee ML (+102) over Indianapolis
There is a lot of hype around this game and Indianapolis possibly starting the season off 0-2. It’s very possibly for Indianapolis to be 0-2 after this game, and I believe it’s the likely scenario. The Colts were torched through the air last week in New England. The Titans beat a struggling Miami team last week on the road.
This week Indianapolis comes into this game with a hurt and young defense into a hostile environment in Tennessee. The Titans come in with a question mark on running back, but it appears very likely that RB Brown will be a full strength for this game. I expect the Titans to start with a heavy dose of Brown, forcing the Colts to attempt to cheat up to stop the run and help their young and depleted defense. This will setup play-action opportunities for the Titans, and give McNair & Co. the opportunity to pick apart at the Colts’ secondary. The Colts have an explosive offense with their tools, but they’re going to have a tough time finding their way onto the field here with Brown and the Titans controlling the clock. The Titans lost both games to the Colts last year and will be fired up to not allow that to happen again this year, especially on their home turf. The Colts do not want to start the season 0-2, but that motivation alone will not provide enough to overcome their defensive issues.
Colts fans could be in for a long day, as they’re going to be yearning to see their offense on the field, which will be an event that won’t be seen enough for the Colts to have a chance at winning this game. I like for a possible final score of 27-17 in favor of the Titans.
Chicago +8.5 (-110) over Green Bay
These two teams played two very different games last week. Chicago made more mistakes than should be allowed and lost at home, where as Green Bay played a perfect game on the road. The Bears have lost the last 7 meetings against the Packers. While I don’t expect that to end here, I do expect the Bears to make this a competitive game with GB winning in the end.
Both teams come into this game fairly healthy, with the only real question marks revolving around the Packers depth at LB and RB. Defensively, Chicago played a solid game against the Lions last week. The key to their struggles was their offensive turnovers. I expect HC Smith to make some adjustments and attempt to run the ball more to take some pressure off of Grossman. The Packers are a much better team than the Lions, and the same types of mistakes in this game would be impossible to overcome. The Packers have gotten comfortable beating the Bears as of late, and the Bears last SU win in this rivalry was in GB. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Bears up early in this game, as the Packers may suffer a little fire after their convincing win over last year’s NFC champions. Favre and Co. have the tools to win this game and they will be supported by their home crowd.
I expect this game to be played close to the chest by both sides, with the Packers winning in the end by close to a TD. I like for a final score around 23-17 in favor of the Packers.
Washington –2.5 (-122) over New York Giants
These two teams are in two different positions, with they keys revolving around injuries and their respective QB situations. Last week Washington won their first game of the season at home against TB. They showed a very good looking defense, some of which was helped by TB’s offensive issues. The Giants lost their first game of the Coughlin era on the road in Philadelphia.
The Giants have major issues by way of depth on defense and offensive line. The Giants will be without reserve FS Stoutmire for this game, which not only affects depth at that position, but it also affects alignment and play on special teams. The Giants will also be without starting LB Emmons, and he will be replaced by a rookie. The Giants, somewhere subconsciously, have a QB issue with Warner and Manning. Though it doesn’t seem very apparent, the situation they have greatly affects the play of the offense as a whole. This type of situation is tough to overcome, and it is magnified by their issues on defense and the offensive line. The Redskins come into this game fairly healthy, and I expect them to attack the Giants on the ground to help setup some play-action to really open up this game. It’s going to be tough for the Giants to play an overall good game here, and Washington is going to benefit from that.
Until the Giants can get everyone on the same page and have off-the-field distractions eliminated (such as players being fined for not being early enough to meetings), they’re going to have a tough time beating anyone. I like for a final score around 20-13 in favor of Washington, but with the Giants defense things could easily open up.
New Orleans –7.5 (+100) over San Francisco
Last week the Saints lost at home to a good Seattle team, and the 49ers lost at home to the Falcons where they suffered an unfortunate injury to QB Rattay. Much is being made of the injury to Rattay. While this is a key injury to the 49ers offense, Rattay won’t be the only player out that will hobble the 49ers on the road in New Orleans.
Dorsey will make his first NFL start against the Saints in New Orleans on Sunday. This alone makes this tough for the 49ers. However, a lesser-publicized injury to starting center Newberry will make things next to impossible for the 49ers to have consistent success against the Saints. San Francisco also has issues on defense. They will have reduced depth on the defensive line with both DE Williams and DE Carter being ruled out of this game. Also, starting CB Rumph has been ruled out of this game and will be replaced by a rookie. The only key injuries for the Saints are on the defensive line, which will hurt, but will be unnoticeable against the 49ers struggling offense. I expect the Saints to blitz early and often against the 49ers’ new starting center/QB pair, and I also expect them to use play-action to setup long downfield throws to Horn and Co. I believe both Brooks and McAllister will have big games against the 49ers here.
I lean to an OVER play, but the 49ers will have a tough time scoring points. I don’t expect the Saints to make costly errors against the 49ers like they did against the Seahawks last week, and I like for a final score around 30-17 in favor of the Saints.
St. Louis ML (+110) over Atlanta
Last week the Rams struggled against the Cardinals at home by making costly mistakes. The Falcons were helped by an injury to the 49ers starting QB to help propel them to a win on the road.
The Rams played a very sloppy game last week against the Cardinals. They won both the passing and rushing battles, but turnovers in the redzone (3 turnovers in all) prevented them from blowing the game open and winning by a larger margin. The Falcons matched the 49ers rushing attack last week in San Francisco, but were out gained through the air by Rattay and Dorsey. The Falcons having issues on the offensive line, specifically the left side, that cause them to have a tough time picking up blitzes and forcing bad throws and mistakes by the offense. I believe the Rams will exploit that in this game by blitzing the Falcons and forcing Vick into making mistakes. The Falcons will have trouble defending the pass in this game, and they will see a heavy dose of the run that will keep them on their toes. The Falcons issues were masked last week by the early injury to Rattay, but it was shown that their defense can be exploited through the air.
I expect Bulger and Co. to have a big game offensively making their fantasy owners happy, but making the Falcon faithful unhappy. The Atlanta crowd should be a factor in this game, but I like for a final score around 27-20 in favor of the Rams.
Carolina +6.5 (+101) over Kansas City
Both Carolina and Kansas City displayed far from acceptable performances last week. Carolina was unable to get any type of running game started after they tried to start the game off with a few fancy plays. KC’s defense started off on a bad note against the Broncos last week and didn’t look much better than they did last year.
Carolina will be without WR Smith and RB Davis for this game. Smith will be replaced by rookie Colbert, and Foster will start in place of Davis. Kansas city will most likely be without two starts in this game, DE Holliday and SS Wesley. Neither had practiced as of Thursday and are listed as questionable for this game. KC’s defense allowed 202 yards on the ground and 230 yards through the air. Carolina had just 38 yards on the ground last week. The Panthers were –2 in the turnover ratio against Green Bay last week, making it next to impossible for Carolina to come out victorious. Both teams will be motivated to do well, and I believe this will be a very close hard fought game. Foster is a more than capable RB, with his only downside being a tendency to fumble. This is the major reason as to why I feel Carolina will have a tough time winning this game outright, but I believe there is a very good chance Carolina stays within a TD of the Chiefs.
Carolina plays their best football as an underdog, and very few people are giving them a chance in this game. I expect Colbert to emerge with a surprisingly capable effort in place of Smith, and I expect Carolina’s defense to do a much better job of shutting down the run this week. I like for a final score around 27-24 in favor of KC.
Tampa Bay ML (+130) over Seattle
Last week the Bucs went to Washington under very draining circumstances. They had a short week to prepare following hurricane Frances, and they had to go into an energized crowd at the home of the Redskins. Tampa Bay had a very little chance to win last week, but they face a much more favorable conditions in this matchup against Seattle. Seattle went to New Orleans and forced the Saints into making costly errors that helped to make them victorious.
Seattle is expected to have RB Alexander, which will greatly help their offense. The Bucs will be without WR Galloway, further depleting their corps of WRs. I believe the Bucs will be motivated to respond after last week’s effort against the Redskins and eek out a victory at home. Seattle will be facing a much better run defense this week than they faced last week in New Orleans. Another detrimental factor for the Seahawks will be the hot and humid conditions. Like Denver, I believe Seattle will suffer from conditioning issues in this game helping propel Tampa Bay to victory.
I don’t expect a ton of scoring in this game, as I like for both teams to do a lot of rushing, so I lean to the UNDER here. I like for a final score around 20-13 in favor of Tampa Bay.
New England –7.5 (-106) over Arizona
Last week New England won a close game at home against the Colts. Arizona forced the Rams into costly mistakes that allowed them to keep the final margin of victory by the Rams just a TD. Arizona will face another team that will attack them through the air, but I believe the result will be a little more on sided than the one they saw last week.
New England will again be without RB Faulk, which will help to force them into another passing barrage from Brady & Co. Arizona will have a tough time forcing the NE offense to make mistakes similar to the ones the Rams made last week, which is a big reason as to why I believe NE will win this game by more than a TD. The Cardinals will have a tough time against New England’s defense, and I believe they will fall behind early and be forced to attack through the air, making them very one dimensional.
I don’t believe this will be a very high scoring affair, and I like for a final score around 27-13 in favor on New England.
San Diego ML (+153) over New York Jets
Last week the Chargers beat the Texas on the road, taking advantage of 4 turnovers by the Texans. The Jets took advantage of the Bengals at home last week and should be confident coming into this game.
I believe the key to this game will be the Jets young defense. I believe this game will play out similar to the Jets/Bengals game last week. Like the Bengals, the Jets will be sending a young defense on the road. The Chargers are no defensive powerhouse themselves, but they are at home and have arguably one of the best RBs in the league. Both teams come into this game fairly healthy. The Chargers look to have the motivational edge with this matchup, as it is their home opener, and they were embarrassed by the Jets two years ago and were called the “powder puffs”. They still remember that and are using it as motivation here.
I believe this will be a shootout type of game, but I believe the Chargers at home with a “stronger” defense will pull out the victory here. Make no mistake, the Jets are a good team, but the first road game for a young defense will be tough, especially against some of the weapons the Chargers have. I like for a final score around 33-27 in favor of the Chargers.
Cincinnati –5.5 (-103) over Miami
Last week the Bengals were defeated last week as they sent their young defense into a hostile environment on the road in New York. Miami, with a struggling offense, was defeated at home by the Titans last week.
This week the Bengals defense will have the comfort of the home crowd to help give them a lift similar to what the Jets enjoyed last week. Miami comes in with an injury-riddled team on both offense and defense, further hurt by their inconsistency at the QB position. The Bengals won’t be without their injury trouble, which includes starting SS Beckett being ruled out for the game, and he will be replaced by a rookie. Also, WR Warrick is questionable for this game. The Dolphins will be without DT Bowens, CB Surtain (who will be replaced by a rookie, as CB Howard is questionable and unlikely to play). On offense the Dolphins will be without RB Minor, RB Morris, and FB Konrad. As if the Dolphins running game wasn’t hurt before, the hit at depth will make it very tough for them to have much success. Miami will start QB Feeley, and he will have a tough time moving the ball without a running attack to keep the defense on their toes. The Bengals will be able to target a thin secondary with WR Johnson, and I expect RB Johnson to have a lot of success here. This could get ugly for the Dolphins unless they can somehow manage a running attack. Even still, this will not help keep the Bengals from targeting their depleted defense.
Palmer should get a lift from the home crowd here, and I like for a final score around 24-17 in favor of the Bengals.
GL!! :bbang: