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Stanley
09-14-2004, 07:46 PM
Outright plays (1.5pts):

Loren Roberts to win 25/1 e.w. available generally
Starting with the obvious ... it's not very often that you get 25/1 for a player who has finished 1st and 2nd in the last two years of an event. Roberts' form is solid enough with six top-25 finishes in his last nine starts and this is a course which clearly favours good putters. On that basis, 25/1 seems a more than fair price.

Jesper Parnevik to win 40/1 e.w. @ Ladbrokes and Coral
Parnevik is basically a good putter and that has played a large role in the revival in his game over the past year. He finished one shot out of the playoff for the Buick Invitational in March and looked as though he might even better than season-high finish last week when he entered the final round in 2nd place. In the end, he faded on Sunday, but he clearly has belief in his game again. Should be looking to improve on his 11th place finish in 2001.

Bob Tway to win 40/1 e.w. @ BetInternet
Tway finished alongside Roberts in 2nd place last year and was also in the top-10 in the previous year, so he clearly has enough course form to suggest he could be a contender this week. While he has not won in the run-up to this event as he did last year, a pair of top-10 finishes in The International and the NEC Invitational last month are certainly impressive in this field and last year's Canadian Open win did prove to himself that he does have the ability to close out events and win.

AlwaysDoubleDown
09-14-2004, 09:24 PM
Stanley,

I like the picks, as they were next on the list for my selections. I just wanted your thought on Fredrik Jacobson. He's a great putter so he should do well...is it his lack of course experience or his m/c last week that you arent taking him?
Steve

Stanley
09-15-2004, 05:32 PM
Simply the fact that he should have been in the Ryder Cup team. He lost his game over the last few holes in the BMW International Open when pars would probably have been good enough to get him into the team by merit. He is also the 6th-highest ranked player in Europe in terms of the World Rankings, so again he should be in the team on merit. I just think it will be difficult to focus this week as there will be no escaping what will happen at Oakland Hills this week

Stanley
09-15-2004, 06:54 PM
Matchup plays (1.5pts):

Robert Allenby to beat Justin Leonard +110 @ Olympic
Apart from his 2nd place finish in the PGA Championship, Leonard's form has not been particularly impressive and he finished 50th and 66th in his last two events. Okay, he has a great record around this course, but the last time he played here was in 2002 and he missed the cut. And there is the Ryder Cup and the continuing controversy over Brookline and the celebrations after he hold his putt on the 17th. It is sure to be a distraction and particularly so as he missed so many opportunities in the last six holes to win the PGA Championship and earn the right to be playing at Oakland Hills this week. With that against Leonard, I'll gladly take these odds on the better player.
(available generally)

Tom Lehman to beat Corey Pavin -111 @ William Hill
Lehman has finished of Pavin in four of their last five common events and in each of the last two years here so history points to a win for Lehman. He will also be upbeat after his 64 on Sunday lifted him to 4th place in the Canadian Open and while Pavin's form has been good since the U.S. Open and his return to Shinnecock Hills, he has rarely put together four good rounds. Everyone bar William Hill make Lehman the favourite in this match.
(also available at Five Dimes, Bet365, Olympic and Pinnacle)

Rod Pampling to beat Hunter Mahan -115 @ Five Dimes
Mahan has shown some very good form over the last two months, but just think that Pampling is at slightly higher level on the Tour. He did win the International in August, for example, and he does lead Mahan 10-3-0 h2h in 2004.
(also available at Expekt, Bet365 and BetInternet)

Bo Van Pelt to beat Hunter Mahan +100 @ SkyBet
Similar story here. Mahan's form is good, but Van Pelt is generally the better player outside of form and this can be seen from his 13-3-1 h2h lead against Mahan in 2004.
(also available at Carib)

Stanley
09-19-2004, 07:13 PM
Outrights - FINAL RESULT: 0-3; -4.50pts

Roberts 22nd
Parnevik 22nd
Tway 41st

Some low scores, but not for all four rounds. Roberts and Parnevik finished 10 shots behind the winner.

Matchups - FINAL RESULT: 1-3-0; -3.23pts

Allenby/Leonard LOST by 9
Lehman/Pavin WON by 5
Pampling/Mahan LOST by 10
Van Pelt/Mahan LOST by 6

Poor return on this event.

PGA Tour ytd
Outrights: 16-90; +16.54pts
Matchups: 119-94; +16.15pts