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View Full Version : solid bb play for monday...


JT Sports
09-06-2004, 12:18 PM
For today I'm going to take St Louis Cardinals against the San Diego Padres. Chris Carpenter is up for St Louis, and has been superb in his last five starts, giving up 3 er once and only 1 er four separate times. The Padres are on a little bit of a down side winning only one of their last five, while the Cards bring in a nine game "W" streak. The opening line at the Stardust was StL -150, and is currently -157. Let's cash in on one of the top teams, at a fair price.

A note on underdogs; as Kenny Rogers said, "you gotta know when to hold 'em and know when to fold 'em", or something like that. My point is that dogs don't really suck, just sometimes they hit more frequently than other times. When they're hot, go with the folw. Earlyier in the seaosn, dogs were super hot, and if you played alot of dogs, you did great. But things have changed recently. In August, "home dogs' hit at; 34%/52-99, and this month so far home dogs are even worse; 26%/5-14. The last five days, favorites have covered 46 of 66 games, almost 70%. So what's it all mean? It's just a little "key" to help "me" lean in the right direction. Not that it can't turn around, but it's been favorites over a month now. And when I see stats like that, my first lean, is toward favorites (small to medium). But everyone has their own style.

Good luck to all...

UteFan
09-06-2004, 12:47 PM
Great points about dogs-as a primary dog player, the run of favs and my stubborness to not play chalk, has killed me and forced me to stop playing (capping) games. Too often I get stuck in the "well favs have been hitting for x number of days so now dogs are going to hit soon" but it hasn't happened like it has in the past for me. GL with your paly today!!

JT Sports
09-06-2004, 02:58 PM
thanks
some dogs are still winning, it just takes a llittle more work and a little more time to find them.
gl to you too...

Rawhide
09-06-2004, 04:54 PM
JT Im with you on this one Please see my post RE: this game.

Why was I chastised to badly

Lets go get em-RAWHIDE

Stifler's Mom
09-06-2004, 05:26 PM
To answer your question Rawhide...

You called St. Louis a LOCK. When people call a game a lock here, it usually loses about 95% of the time.

No one here likes the word LOCK in the first place, plus maybe some of them are playing St. Louis and feel that you have now jinxed them.

JT Sports
09-06-2004, 05:53 PM
i just saw what was going on, and stif said it exactly right, now i sure hope you didn't jinx me...

yomonte
09-06-2004, 09:01 PM
Shit, I was busy today and forgot all about the LOCK guy. If SD wins, I'll win some beer money. I never pass up a new guy and his lock. NEVER LOL. Sorry JT its too late. Try to hedge it with something else cause like another poster said, its like 98-2 LOL. StL is not guranteed to win every game and this just might be the one they lose. SD it is, but small. The janx is on LOL. Fades like this only come around ever so often, you got to take em when you can. LOL I'm makin' SD a posted play.

JT Sports
09-07-2004, 12:47 PM
as soon as i saw that post i knew it was a gonner, it seems like i never get the padre's right, something always goes wrong, i should just stay away from that team, i bet i lost just about every totals i bet on them this year...
live n learn