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Stanley
08-30-2004, 07:01 PM
Outright plays (1.5pts):

Tiger Woods to win 11/2 @ Stan James
I very rarely back a single-odds player and I'm sure that I have never backed two in one event, until this week. Unlike last year, the players have a week's rest after the NEC Invitational and so fatigue after playing in two important events will not be a factor this year. Both players are refreshed and fully focussed on winning the Money List and the Player of the Year award. As last year, the field beyond the two leading players is very weak given the amount of prize money on offer and this is also a bomber's course. Woods' game is definitely improving and on this track he has the power to rule out the majority of the field. Won't go lower than 5/1 and struggling to find value lower down the odds list.

Vijay Singh to win 7/1 @ UKBetting and Totalbet
An unsurprisingly tired effort from Singh at the NEC after stumbling to victory in the PGA Championship, but this should be a different matter after a rest. Won't go lower than 6/1.

Charles Howell to win 40/1 e.w. @ UKBetting, BetDirect and Totalbet
Had Allenby pencilled in for a slot this week, but he has now withdrawn so looking for Howell to perform instead. Did not play last year, but he does have the length off the tee to be competitive on this course. His form and game have been steadily improving in the last couple of months as he has consistently ranked highly in both driving distance and greens in regulation in each event and his 9th place finish in the NEC Invitational was borne out of top-20 ranking in driving distance, driving accuracy, greens in regulation and putting average. All parts of his game were in good condition two weeks ago and he will finish much higher up the leaderboard this week against this field if he plays like that again.

AlwaysDoubleDown
08-31-2004, 02:39 PM
What are your thoughts on Zach Johnson and Geoff Ogilvy this week?

Stanley
09-01-2004, 03:50 AM
Had a close look at both of them. I thought there were too many negatives with Johnson - fifth straight week of competitive golf, no course experience and a straight rather than a long driver - to take the plunge, though 40/1 is still a fair price.

More convinced that Ogilvy could do well this week, but I was looking for 50/1 for him and didn't find it.

Stanley
09-01-2004, 08:01 PM
72-hole plays (1.5pts):

Jesper Parnevik to beat Daniel Chopra +110 @ NordicBet
Will take these odds on a player who has a 8-2-0 h2h lead over his opponent in 2004. Parnevik has been playing much better this year, as exemplified by his 22nd place finish in the NEC Invitational two weeks ago. He also has course experience which Chopra does not.

Charles Howell to beat John Daly -110 @ SkyBet
Tipped Howell for the outright market as he is playing well and this can be seen by his head-to-head record against Daly: he has beaten him in each of their last four common events and by an average margin of 12.5 shots! Just too many reasons to oppose the unpredictable Daly in matchups.
(also available at Paddy Power, Five Dimes and SIA)

Geoff Ogilvy to beat John Daly +100 @ William Hill and Easybets
Unlike Daly, Ogilvy has played on this course and he finished 5th last year. He is playing well, rarely missing a cut and should be a player to back in match bets.
(also available at Five Dimes)

Shigeki Maruyama to beat John Daly -135 @ Carib
Maruyama's form is also solid and whilst he has not been earning the top-10 finishes that he had at the start of the year, he is still playing well enough to have finished ahead of Daly in seven of their last nine common events. He also has course experience, which Daly does not.

Shigeki Maruyama to beat Carlos Franco -108 @ Pinnacle
Franco's form has been sliding since those two weeks in July when he looked like the player who burst onto the PGA Tour scene in 1999. He still trails Maruyama 3-7-0 in their last ten meetings, so I'll side Maruyama who is far more likely to contend in tournament throughout the year, rather than in short bursts.
(available generally)

Stanley
09-06-2004, 06:12 PM
Outrights - FINAL RESULT: 1-2; +7.50pts

Woods 2nd
Singh 1st
Howell 9th

Nice not to have egg on my face after backing the two favourites! Almost turned into a Woods vs. Singh shootout, so just glad that Adam Scott didn't sneak in a deny the two selections. Howell really should have secured a place win, but just lost control of his game and his concentration in the 3rd round.

Matchups - FINAL RESULT: 3-2-0; +1.50pts

Parnevik/Chopra LOST by 9
Howell/Daly WON by 8
Ogilvy/Daly LOST by 2
Maruyama/Daly WON by 10
Maruyama/Franco WON (Franco wd)

Small profit on the matchups to round out a good profit overall.

PGA Tour ytd
Outrights: 16-84; +23.04pts
Matchups: 115-90; +16.60pts

All Tours ytd
Outrights: 71-280; +263.80pts
Matchups: 332-250; +82.81pts

UteFan
09-06-2004, 06:14 PM
Thanks for the winner Stanley!!