Week 1: Indianapolis @ New England (Thur 9:00 EST)

[Referee]

Please post your thoughts, views and other info here (no picks)

NE -3 o/u 42 (lines as of 8/14)
NE -3 o/u 43.5 (lines as of 8/29)
NE -3.5 o/u 44.5 (lines as of 9/4)

[Horfin]

Here we go:

Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots

Last Year:
NE won at Indy 38-34 in Last Game of November
NE won at Home vs. Indy 24-14

Indy was 12-4 SU and 9-6-1 ATS
NE was 14-2 SU and 13-21 ATS

Week 1:
NE lost 0-31 at Buffalo
INDY won 9-6 at Cleveland

Indianapolis Colts

Colts Offense vs. New England Defense

Colts O-Line v. NE D-Line
RG-Scuillo (6-5 and 330)– Injured last year and lost job to Peko (6-4 300) and A. Meadows. (Meadows is gone); Peko looks to be the starter, however, he is much smaller at 300. With NE’s base 3-4 defense he will be against DE Richard Seymour (6-6 310) – Pro-Bowler last year or NT K. Traylor (6-2 340).. . . Traylor is new addition from the Bears. The Colts O-Line is younger and smaller: (5 guys at 1559 or avg of 312 lbs). If the Patriots get pressure (which they should it will be from the Right Side of the O-Line of Traylor and Seymour. On the otherside the NE Dline has Ty Warren, who is smaller and may not be able to play a full game. . . 3 Players average of 320 lbs. NE Defense had 41 sacks for 253 yards. Indy O-Line gave up 19 sacks for 110 yards. The Colts O-Line blocked for a nice 1695 yards (105 yards/game) and 16 Rushing TDs. The New England Defense allowed 89.6 yards/game or 1434 yards and 10 rushing Tds.

Manning vs. NE Defense:
NE Corners: Ty Law (lead Pats with 6 Ints and had 74 tackles); T. Poole (6 ints and 59 tackles) A. Samuel plays in Nickel D and will play third corner. Otis Smith is also back but 38 years old, kinda old for a corner. SS Rodney Harrison is a hard hitting player and has experience (125 tackels, 3 sacks and 3 ints and 3 ff). Wilson plays Free Safety and replaced Lawyer Milloy last year. IF there are injuries the CBs are in trouble. Patriots gave up a respectable 53.1 Completion percentage and picked off the Opp QB 29 times
Manning: QB Rating 99 67% Completion Percentage 29-10 TD to INT ratio. 261 yards passing per game. Manning is 4-1 ATS in opening games. Manning is obviously the strongest aspect of the Colts Offense. Sometimes too much is placed on Manning. This is a team sport. Two games last year Manning passed for 272 and 208

E. James vs. NE Defense:
E. James seems to be back after tearing his ACL two years ago. Last year he ran for 1259 (4.1 ypc) and two years ago he ran for 989 (3.6 ypc). James fumble 5 times last year. The O-Line of the Colts is better at pass blocking (see sacks allowed above) as opposed to rush blocking. NE allowed an average of 89.6 yards rushing per game last year. Last year in both games the Pats gave up 98 rushing yards to E. James.

WRs of the Colts vs. CB/DB of NE.
See NE information above.
Harrison (WR 6-0; 178) 94 Rec and 1272 yards and 10 TD (13.5 yds per catch). Should be matched up against Ty Law (5-11 199). R. Wayne (6-0 and 198) goes against T, Poole (5-9 185), Stokley 5-11 & 197 goes against A. Samuel (5-11 185).
The age of Harrison slows down the WRs. The age of the DBs slows down NE’s Defense. The Height of these WR may be an advantage for Manning.

TIGHT ENDS:
C. Fauriea of NE is the Starter and D. Graham is the back up. Between the two there were 66 catches.
M. Pollard is aging but had 40 for 541 and 1 td last year, however Dallas Clark is someone to watch out for.

New England Offense vs. Colts Defense:


NE Oline vs. Indy Defense:
The O Line consists of Hochstein (6-3,288) J. Andruzzi (6-3 and 315) D. Koppen (6-3, 297). Ashworth (6-6 305) and Light 6-4, 305. (5 guys at average of 302). The size of this line and the loss of D. Woody at LG may cause problems. The only saving grace is the arrival of Corey Dillon. Finally a feature back in New England. The Center and Guard (Anruzzi) and Left Tackle Light are good, the other 2/3 of this line is questionable.L. Tripplet is decent. M Reagor is small for a d-lineman (285) Bratske is GONE, which may be a problem. The could news is that D. Freeney is on the Right side of the line. This D-line is small giving up between 15-20 pounds per postion. The NE O-Line gave up 32 sacks for 219 yards LY and Colts had 31 sacks for 225 yards. I don’t think there should be much pressure on Brady with the addition of Dillon, the smaller Dline of Indy. The D-Line gave up an average of 123 rushing yards last year.

Brady vs. Indy Defense:
Brady is definitely under-rated, particularly when compared to Manning. Brady has 2 Superbowl rings and had 3620 yds wih 23 TDs and 12 INTs. Brady’s numbers should decrease with Dillon in the backfield. Look for NE to run more, pulling the Defense up and then the long ball. This should work particularly well against the Indy defense. The Colts lost two DBs (Harris and Macklin) and picked up none in the off-season for replacements other than the 4rh round draft pick and the 6th round draft pick. Harper is a short DB (5-10 and small at 180 lbs) On the otherside there is J. Jefferson who missed all of 2003. The strong point of the Colts passing D is Doss and Bashir. Doss is smaller and Bashir measures up well (6-2). Brady passed for 226 yards and 237 yards vs. Indy last year.

C. Dillon vs. Indy Defense
Dillon is a great improvement to an almost perfect team. Dillon (as mentioned above) can do nothing but improve the entire team, even if he runs his mouth. Dillon should be able to run and run well against this offense. Dillon can catch and will do well on the Natural Turf in NE. Dillon will pull the defense up opening the deep pass for Brady Et Al.

NE WRs vs. Indy Defense:
The NE trio is good, very good, but no major super stars. Branch (5-9) Givens (6-0) and Brown (5-10) and Patten (5-10) are somewhat short and Indy should match up well, however the inexperience of the Indy CBs (above) may cause problems. I can easily see the Colts focusing on the run and Branch, et al will go deep.



Other Points to Consider:

The Linebackers of NE can be a problem. Phifer is 36; Bruschi is 31 Izzo is small; Ted Johnson is old and has injury problems. The Patriots signed Rosevelt Colvin whish will help. Klecko is an assist when he plays but he plays on offense and defense.

Indianapolis picked up no free agents and lost Bratke, W. Harris, David Macklin, Marcus Washington all on Defense.

Both Teams have excellent Kickers.

IMPORTANT TRENDS TO CONSIDER:


Trends that Favor NE
NE is 7-0 ATS in the Last 7 vs. INDY and 7-3 ATS at home Vs. INDY
NE is 11-2 ATS when the O/U Line is 37 or more
NE was 14-4-1 ATS last year
NE was 9-1 as a Home Favorite in 2003
** NE is 42-4 ATS when they score 24 or more points
Last year NE covered both games.
Indy is 1-6 AS as RF of 3 or more points
Colts are 0-32 ATS when they lose SU
Colts are 0-10 ATS when they lose SU as dog
Indy is 10-16-1 ATS in September as a Dog
NE is 7-4-1 ATS in week 1 at home
NE is 8-2-1 ATS as a favorite in Week 1

Trends that Favor INDY
NE is 1-4 ATS as Home Favorite in September
Indy is 8-2 ATS as Road Favorite in September
NE is 20-30-2 ATS in September (2-0-1 recent)
NE is 10-16-1 ATS at home in September
NE is 7-12-1 as a Favorite in September
Indy is 5-0 ATS (recent) in September
Indy is 6-4-1 ATS on the Road in Week 1

Trends that Favor OVER
NE is 8-3 OVER in LHG
Indy is 9-1 OVER as Road Dogs

Trends that Favor UNDER
NE was 3-5 UNDER at home Last year
NE is 1-7 UNDER as a home favorite



Please post any thoughts whatso-ever you have on this game.

Horf!n

[SkinsFan]

Line moved to -3.5 at Olympic and Carib.... see lots of value taking the dog here....

[yomonte]

Yo Skins. I use Oly to track these moves. Will update all lines in a few. GL bro

[rjp]

NE upgraded at the punter position in the offseason; could be a major addition given a game of field position.

[BillyBarooooooo]

Put ten dimes on Indy +3.5 and another 10 dimes on NE -2.5
You cant lose. My lock of a lifetime!!!!

[Superskins]

Holy Crap, Billy! Excellent call!
Stay on 'em!

[BillyBarooooooo]

Thanks Guys Sunday I'm going to Take St. Louis on the Money line. Going to lay 5.2K To win 1.0. To me this looks pretty soild. What do you think!!! I might have a super open ended 10 team 20 point teaser going. Keep your eyes open.......

BB:thumbs:

[yomonte]

I knew it, I knew it. Your a fkn WARLORD. lol