PGA Championship

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1.5pts):

Vijay Singh to win 12/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power [6 places]
Can't really split the leading four, so it is surprising that Woods, Els and Mickelson are all single figures and Singh as high as 14/1. He is long off the tee, ranked #1 on Tour in greens in regulation which is always an important stat in majors and has an excellent long game. With plenty of high finishes on links courses and with the wind not expected to blow too fiercely, it would be a surprise if he is not placed at least. Taking the Paddy Power offer of six places and a refund should Tiger win rather than the 14/1 on offer elsewhere.

Jim Furyk to win 33/1 e.w. @ BlueSq [6 places]
On a long course, Furyk should be a surprising choice, but in the ShotLink categories of 'approaches from 175-200 yards' and 'approaches from > 200 Yards' only one other player has better figures than he has in 2004. He has shown an ability to play in the wind in Hawaii and in the British Open and provided that his lack of distance off the tee does not prove to be too prohibitive, he should be a very strong contender. It also helps that he is fresh after missing so much of the season with his wrist injury.

Stewart Cink to win 66/1 e.w. @ Paddy Power [6 places]
Spurning the 80/1 on offer with five places for Paddy Power's terms as he is more likely to finish 5th or 6th than 2nd or 3rd. As frustrating as his mid-round collapse was on Sunday, it should also be encouraging for Cink that he recovered so well and earned valuable Ryder Cup team points. He is now up to 12th in the list and could seal his place with a strong performance this week. His form is very good and while he is the #1 ranked putter on Tour this year, his long game is also very good. He showed that he could play links golf at Royal Troon last month and he could certainly feature this week.

[Bugeater]

Looking for some advice again stanley...same pool as british open. If you have 5 or 6 safe picks to make the cut, who would they be? Thanks for the help. Keep up the good work!

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1.5pts unless stated):

Padraig Harrington to beat Chad Campbell -115 @ Bet365 and BlueSq
This has been a frustrating year for Campbell, despite winning the Bay Hill Invitational, as he showed so much promise last year. He has missed three of his last five cuts and has finished behind Harrington in four of five common PGA Tour events this year. Harrington is Europe's most consistent player in these events and won't hand over this match to the Texan.

Padraig Harrington to beat Darren Clarke -123 @ Pinnacle
Similar story here. Clarke's loss of form has been dramatic with just one top-50 in his last six starts and missed cuts in both the majors on American soil this year. Harrington leads him 8-1-0 h2h in strokeplay events this year, which makes these odds look generous.
(also available at Five Dimes)

Padraig Harrington to beat Lee Westwood -111 @ Easybets [3pts]
Westwood's form is much better than his stablemate's, but he is still struggling to find some consistency. Plus, he hasn't had a top-10 finish in the U.S. since the Open at Pebble Beach in 2000 (30 events). Harrington is just too consistent wherever he plays, to lose this matchup more often than not.
(also available at William Hill)

Scott Verplank to beat John Daly -114 @ Expekt [3pts]
Daly is a long-hitter and he recently finished 2nd in the Buick Open, but he is still a long way from his early season form and consistency. Expecting a strong week from Verplank who ranks in the top-15 in the ShotLink's categories of approaches from 125-150 yards, 150-175 yards and 175-200 yards. He will keep it straight and his long-game will keep him in contention on this difficult course. It also helps that he has a 7-1-0 h2h lead against Daly in 2004.
(also available at Nordicbet)

Scott Verplank to beat David Toms -110 @ Ladbrokes
Losing length to his opponent will not be a concern for Verplank here. Toms may have won the St. Jude Classic in May, but he has still missed five of his last ten cuts whereas Verplank has the 3rd longest streak of consecutive cuts made on Tour. Verplank also leads Toms 7-2-0 h2h in 2004 and this is not a course on which Toms will be able to regain his PGA Championship title.

Davis Love to beat Sergio Garcia -110 @ Ladbrokes [3pts]
With just one start since the U.S. Open two months ago - and that was a missed cut in the British Open - Garcia is hardly well-prepared for this event. Have to side with Love who has finished in the top-15 in his last three starts and has a great record on links courses in the British Open and on seaside courses on the PGA Tour where he has had seven wins at Hilton Head and Pebble Beach.
(also available at Stan James, Expekt, Centrebet, Five Dimes and Pinnacle)

Jeff Sluman to beat Todd Hamilton +105 @ Easybets
Will take these odds on Sluman. He is a very good iron-player who is in good form with two top-10 finishes in his last three starts and is a two-time winner in his neighbouring Wisconsin. Hamilton won the Honda Classic when in obscurity and won the British Open last month under the same conditions. It will be very different this week at the subsequent major and this will be a strong test of his personality as well as his game.
(also available at William Hill)

Peter Lonard to beat Trevor Immelman -114 @ Expekt
With top-5 finishes in two of his last three starts, Lonard is a player in form as well as a good wind player. Immelman has struggled since winning the Deutsche Bank - SAP Open in May and has finished behind Lonard five out of six times since then. Not playing well enough to reverse that trend.

Justin Rose to beat Trevor Immelman -111 @ Paddy Power
Rose has recovered his form well since declaring a lack of confidence in his game in June as he failed to qualify for the British Open. He has finished in the top-25 in each of the last two weeks on the PGA Tour and looks to be well-prepared for this event. Not a likely contender, but should have enough to finish ahead of Immelman.

[Stanley]

Hi Bugeater,

The winds are not forecast to be particularly strong and the course setup is "fair", so I don't see any of the main players struggling. The top-four of Woods, Els, Mickelson and Singh are all playing well at the moment and should be on the leaderboard by the weekend.

For less obvious selections, go for Furyk and either Cink outlined below or Verplank who has the 3rd longest streak of consecutive cuts made. He should be a solid top-25 player.

Two players who will be more win or bust would be Adam Scott and Davis Love. With the right mindset, they will be in the top-10, but they do miss a lot of cuts compared to those above.

[Stanley]

Further matchup play (3pts):

Jim Furyk to beat Chad Campbell -125 @ Five Dimes
Looks straightforward. Campbell is out of form, whereas Furyk is playing well, an excellent long-iron player and is the much fresher player. Campbell has also failed to finish ahead of Furyk in any of their five common events in 2004. Fully expect to see Furyk in contention this week.

[DM0559]

stanley whats you thoughts on kenny perry's chances

[Stanley]

Good so long as the winds stay low.

Wouldn't accept less than 40/1 though.

[Bugeater]

went with these 5
Els
Mickelson
Singh
Verplank
Furyk

Everyone looking good besides furyk after day 1...need furyk to make the cut!
thanks again for the help stanley.

[Stanley]

Outrights - FINAL RESULT: 1-2; +8.25pts

Singh 1st
Furyk mc
Cink 17th

Geez! That was hard work! Hard work for Vijay who lost his game until the playoff and had to rely on Justin Leonard missing his golden opportunities and hard work to finally get a winning selection in the outrights this week. Started the final day with a player in prime position in all four events - two that were leading, a 2nd-place and a 3rd-place - and not one of them threatened to pick up a trophy until Leonard handed it over to Vijay.

Matchups - FINAL RESULT: 2-8-0; -11.15pts

Harrington/Campbell LOST by 3
Harrington/Clarke LOST by 5
Harrington/Westwood WON by 7
Verplank/Daly WON by 14
Verplank/Toms LOST by 8
Love/Garcia LOST by 2
Sluman/Hamilton LOST by 5
Lonard/Immelman LOST by 2
Garcia/Immelman LOST by 2
Furyk/Campbell LOST by 10

And they looked so promising after the first day we well! But they literally got worse by the minute thereafter right to the very end of Harrington's final round. Just as well Vijay did win to offset some of the damage here!

PGA Tour ytd
Outrights: 14-81; +14.60pts
Matchups: 108-88; +7.60pts

All Tours ytd
Outrights: 67-260; +214.98pts
Matchups: 306-240; +57.23pts